Sunday, February 19, 2017

NBA All Star Game play...

I cannot end my Blog with a losing play...

East/West Over 352.5, laying $107 to win $100 -- This is an all-time high for an All-Star Game total, eclipsing last year's total by 30 to 40 points (depending on which SportsBook you bet the game on)... But, the total is that high for a reason...The big one being that there were 369 points scored in last year's game.

Below I have posted the lines, totals and game results for the last 13 All-Star Games...

There was a significant scoring increase from the 2009 game to the 2010 game...And the total has been steadily climbing every year since...Not fast enough, though, as the Vegas linesmakers are still trying to catch up...7 out of the last 8 games have gone Over and 8 out of the last 10 (with one game staying under by 1/2 a point on the closing line) have gone Over...

Last year saw yet another significant scoring increase...A whopping 53-point jump from the previous game in 2015...And with the 2017 rosters being similar to the 2016 rosters and with scoring up league-wide in 2017 compared to 2016, I do not see any reason why this game will not eclipse 360 for the second straight year...

I am tempted to make one or two plays on the Quarters, but because of the huge jump this year in the total line, I may not pull the trigger...

Typically, the 2nd and 3rd quarters are great plays for the Over as the game opens up significantly after everybody gets settled into the faster pace...The 1st and 4th quarters look to be good spots for an Under this year with this jacked-up line...I have bet every quarter Over several times the past few years with great success. But with the numbers posted for tonight's game, I do not have the guts to do that again as I am fairly sure there is, at best, a 60% chance of 3 quarters going Over, which means you lose juice on those 4 plays, so it is not worth it to me. If I had to take an educated guess based on the recent history of this game, I would certainly take 2nd and 3rd quarters Over...

GL...




2016 1 2 3 4 Line   1H 2H
841 West 40 52 53 51 196  5½   92 104
842 ### East 43 47 46 37 173 FINAL   310   90 83
2015 1 2 3 4 Line   1H 2H
851 West 47 36 39 41 163   3½   83 80
852 ### East 36 46 40 36 158 FINAL   301    82 76
2014 1 2 3 4  Line   1H 2H
851 East 42 34 47 40 163  290½   76 87
852 ### West 44 45 37 29 155 FINAL    3   89 66
2013 1 2 3 4  Line   1H 2H
851 East 26 39 39 34 138  293½    65 73
852 ### West 31 38 39 35 143 FINAL    2   69 74
2012 1 2 3 4  Line   1H 2H
851 West 39 49 36 28 152   284   88 64
852 ### East 28 41 43 37 149 FINAL   4½   69 80
2011 1 2 3 4   Line   1H 2H
851 East 27 37 36 43 143   3½   64 79
852 ### West 37 39 41 31 148 FINAL  272½   76 72
2010 1 2 3 4  Line   1H 2H
851 East 37 39 42 23 141       2   76 65
852 ### West 34 35 40 30 139 FINAL  262½    69 70
2009 1 2 3 4   Line   1H 2H
801 East 27 40 24 28 119   264   67 52
802 ### West 34 38 38 36 146 FINAL   2½   72 74
2008 1 2 3 4   Line   1H 2H
651 East 34 40 32 28 134   262½   74 60
652 ### West 28 37 28 35 128 FINAL     5   65 63
2007 1 2 3 4 Line 1H 2H
901 East 31 28 29 44 132 256½ 59 73
902 ### West 39 40 40 34 153 FINAL 79 74
2006 1 2 3 4 Line 1H 2H
901 East 28 25 41 28 122 257 53 69
902 ### West 28 42 27 23 120 FINAL 4 70 50
2005 1 2 3 4   Line   1H 2H
901 East 27 34 34 30 125   263½   61 64
902 ### West 33 26 30 26 115 FINAL    4½   59 56
2004 1 2 3 4   Line   1H 2H
451 East 33 31 37 31 132   254½   64 68
452 ### West 31 27 45 33 136 FINAL    7½   58 78

Saturday, February 11, 2017

Taking the Thunder +8 in the biggest NBA regular season game this season...

Folks:

This will be my "farewell pick" of sorts for my blog as I start writing NBA previews over at GMS -- Get More Sports (www.GetMoreSports.com) on a daily basis after the NBA All-Star break...My previews will include handicapping analysis, picks and some fantasy analysis, too...

Oklahoma City Thunder +8 (-105), laying $125 to win $119.05
Oklahoma City Thunder Pick (+305), laying $25 to win $76.25 -- This is the biggest game of the entire regular season in the NBA as you can see by the coverage on ESPN the last 24 hours... Nationally televised game on ABC...You can throw the trends out the window for the most part tonight... Sure, the Warriors demolished the Thunder twice at Golden State, winning 122-96 on November 3rd (OKC on the back-end of a back-to-back there, though) and winning 121-100 on January 18th... But this one is at Oklahoma City... The energy from the Thunder fans will figuratively blow the rook off the Chesapeake Energy Arena...

And Golden State is on the back-end of a back-to-back this time...And they had double-revenge on their minds last night and delivered some payback to the Grizzlies with a 122-107 win at Memphis last night...Their starters played late into that game and Draymond Green became the first player in NBA history to notch a triple-double despite scoring just 4 points, as he had 12 rebounds, 10 assists and 10 steals to go along with 5 blocks...He played with a ton of energy last night and the Warriors as a whole showed a lot of energy and focus last night...

I always look for the motivational spots when handicapping the NBA or any sport...There is clearly one team here who has all of the motivation to win this game...The Thunder have a triple-revenge spot here as they lost to Golden State in the Western Conference Finals last year and they have already lost to the Warriors twice this season, getting throttled in both games...This Thunder team will want to win one for their Home crowd in Kevin Durant's return to Oklahoma City...

Durant had his two highest-scoring games of the season vs. OKC with 39 in the first game and 40 in the second meeting...But coming back to "boos" of his former home crowd could potentially be a little unnerving in front of what will be a very emotional crowd in his first game back...

The Warriors are 8-2 straight-up on the back-end of back-to-backs this season, but just 3-7 ATS in those same 10 spots...The Warriors have been dealing with inflated lines all season long and tonight is no exception...

For me, the points are a bonus, an insurance policy, more or less, if they happen not to win this game...I think the Thunder can with this game outright and could possibly cover 8 points themselves... So I am betting the moneyline, too, along with happily taking the 8 points...

GL...




Sunday, January 22, 2017

New place to post...

Announcement:

I will be taking my talents to GMS, Get More Sports, in a couple of weeks, to write about the NBA and fantasy hoops and of course handicapping angles and selections...

Once I am in full-time, I will be writing just about every day...Well, probably every day...

So stay tuned...

Monday, January 18, 2016

Martin Luther Day play...

Cleveland Cavaliers -3, laying $220 to win $200 -- Not much time, but we have a double-revenge game here for the Cavs and the Warriors are finally hitting a spell where the losses are coming, which was inevitable...National TV game and I expect LeBron to raise his game to his highest level on this stage and I expect the entire Cavs team to do so, also, and with Irving starting to get back into form, well, I like the Cavs a lot tonight as this clearly is a Statement Game for them...

GL...

Thursday, November 26, 2015

Thanksgiving Day selection...

NFL: 1-0, +$312
NHL: 0-1, -$50
NBA: 6-6, +$51
ALL: 7-7, +$313

The Twitter jinx continues for as I am 0-3 posting plays there and with the exception of one brief hot streak a couple years ago, Twitter has not been friendly to me...May not post there the rest of this season...

Short on time...Happy Thanksgiving...

Dallas Cowboys Pick, laying $165 to win $150 -- I feel like Vegas is giving me a fee winner here...Dallas at a Pick against the 10-0 Panthers...Public all over Carolina but virtually no line movement...Taking the Cowboys for 1.5 units...

GL...

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

New coach angle in play tonight...

NFL: 1-0, +$312
NHL: 0-1, -$50
NBA: 6-5, +$216
ALL: 7-6, +$478


My 6-1 stretch crashed and burned with that 0-2 last time out...

Houston Rockets -6.5, laying $165 to win $150 -- 
 To the surprise of nobody who follows my blog or has followed me for years, I am taking one of the strongest angles I have seen over the last 3 or 4 seasons in the NBA and NFL, and it is well documented here on my Blog...The trend is roughly 17-2 during this stretch if you include motivational games from the NFL in the mix were players died the week of the game and other examples in the NFL I gave in this post I made on my blog here:

http://sportsgambling777.blogspot.com/2014/02/new-coach-angle-in-play-tonight.html

Now rare to see a team as a Favorite falling into this angle...Usually bad teams fire their coaches midseason and the team is always a DOG who then wins outright in this spot... In fact, 1 of the 2 losses in the last 4 seasons was that game I cited in that link on my blog on 2/10/14 when I mentioned:

"The other Not Cover was also another unique situation where Mike Brown of the Lakers was fired 2 Novembers ago after the Lakers started 1-4, but new Coach Mike D'Antoni was recovering from knee surgery and couldn't take the sidelines until 4 games later and the Lakers DID WIN that game for D'Antoni at Home, but they they didn't cover the 6.5 point spread as they won by 5"...

So one of the 2 losses was a team that was at home favored by 6.5 points, like tonight...But that 1-4 Lakers team wasn't very good and this Houston team has a LOT of talent...

I want to bet 3 units on this game, my max play, but I am just slightly afraid of Houston not covering although my gut tells me they will whip Portland by 20+ tonight as HOU has lost 4 games in a row and had a player's only meeting after their last loss and then McHale gets fired the next day...They should be highly motivated tonight, and I always look for these motivational, or situational spots when betting sports...

GL...

Friday, November 13, 2015

Friday -- 2 NBA totals...

NFL: 1-0, +$312
NHL: 0-1, -$50
NBA: 6-3, +$436
ALL: 7-4, +$698


Short on time...

New Orleans  / Toronto over 205
laying $110 to win $100 -
 Fairly strong chart-play to the Toronto Over...


Philadelphia  / Oklahoma City over 206.5laying $110 to win $100 -Double Chart-play to the Over here as both teams going in the Over direction...Durant out doesn't bother me...

GL...