Thursday, February 20, 2014

I can take the Heat...

8-6, +$140

Miami Heat +2.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I should have grabbed the 3.5 last night and then I should have grabbed the 3 earlier today, but I am still taking it at 2.5 and I did sprinkle a decent-sized play on the moneyline...Russell Westbrook is a game-time decision an I hope he plays as I feel this would help this Heat play as OKC would have to re-adjust their rotations to re-insert Westbrook back into the lineup, a lineup that has done just fine without him the last 27 games (20-7 SU)...The Heat were in the early stages of their 27-game win-streak 12 months ago and they seem to be heating up again this time of year and with the Pacers faltering a bit as of late, Miami is just 2 games out of the top seed for the East and 1 back in the loss column...So Miami is closer to the #1 now then they have been all season...Revenge spot for the Heat after getting trounced at Miami earlier in the season by OKC...This won't be easy, but LeBron is playing his best basketball of the season right now, arguably, and I feel he will find a way to will Miami to win this game, even if it means he has to score the last 10 points of the game himself to do it...

GL...

Monday, February 10, 2014

"New coach angle" in play tonight...

7-6, +$40

Detroit Pistons +3, laying $110 to win $100 -- I am contractually obligated to take the "New Coach's first game angle" for this game...

Now I may have missed one somewhere (I hope not), but over the last 3 NBA and NFL seasons, when a new coach takes over their first game in the middle of the season, their teams have gone 11-2 ATS in those 2 sports combined...It was 11-1 until the Houston Texans lost this past December 15th after Gary Kubiak was fired the day after a THUR night game...But the Texans were such a mess that I didn't even touch that game despite the angle/trend...So many injuries...The other Not Cover was also another unique situation where Mike Brown of the Lakers was fired 2 Novembers ago after the Lakers started 1-4, but new Coach Mike D'Antoni was recovering from knee surgery and couldn't take the sidelines until 4 games later and the Lakers DID WIN that game for D'Antoni at Home, but they they didn't cover the 6.5 point spread as they won by 5...

People may remember when Romeo Crenell took over as Chiefs head coach in December of 2011 (12/18/11) and as 13-point dogs, they beat the undefeated Packers straight up, ending their 19-game winning streak and ending their perfect season that year...The last NBA coach to be fired midseason was Alvin Gentry, who was fired last January, and the Suns won their next game by 10 as 3-point dogs...I don't think anybody else got fired after him until a bunch of coaches got fired after the season ended...

I would also argue you can add 4 more games from 2012 in the NFL to this tally from the past 3 years where teams rose up to win games...

When Chuck Pagano took a 12-week leave of absence in September of 2012, the Colts won their first game that Bruce Arians filled in for him as head coach, 30-27 over the Packers as 6-point dogs after being down 18 at halftime of that game...And when Pagano returned later in the season on DEC 30 as 6.5 dogs, they won outright by 12 over the Texans...Also that season, when Jerry Brown of the Cowboys died in a car accident, Dallas won their next game outright at Cincinnati as a 3.5 point underdog...And when Jovan Belcher of the Chiefs committed suicide after killing his girlfriend, the Chiefs won their next game outright against Carolina as 5.5 Dogs...

If you count these 4 games, that's another 4-0 to this angle where "teams rise up" for a new coach (or those 2 Chuck-Strong examples) or for a fallen teammate who died or was killed within days of an upcoming game...

So Maurice Cheeks was fired by the Pistons yesterday so one of my many, many, many situational trends states that "you take the team whose coach just got fired to win their first game for their new coach"...I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe this trend/angle/situational spot is either 8-1 or 7-1 ATS the last 8 or 9 instances in the NBA...So the Pistons would be the play tonight...

These recent percentages with this angle do NOT guarantee a win by the Pistons...No situational trend is full-proof or "guaranteed"...

Especially when this firing is a little puzzling as Detroit has won 2 straight games and 4 of their last 6...Usually when a coach gets fired, they have been losing games left and right and the team is hungry to go out and play for their new coach to get a "W"...But there must be discontent behind the scenes or something going on for the GM Joe Dumars to fire Mo Cheeks after just 50 games...

But again, anyone who has followed me on my blog over the years knows that I was going to be on the Pistons tonight, and I am...


GL...

Saturday, February 1, 2014

Saturday Night Fever...

One play, although I should play 2...My top side is Atlanta, but I am going to bet this total:

7-5, +$150

Milwaukee/Memphis under 181, laying $110 to win $100 -- These 2 teams already played a 159 at Milwaukee 16 days ago and now the guy who controls the ball for Memphis, their point-guard, Mike Conley, the guy who often drives to the hole with a floater with less than 5 seconds left on the shot clock or 1 of 2 guys who can hit a 3 for the Grizz is very doubtful after spraining his ankle last night...MILW already 9-3 to the Under in back-enders this season and MEMP has gone under in 9 straight, which is EVERY game since Marc Gasol returned from the lineup after about 5 or 6 weeks of being out with a sprained knee...

GL...


Friday, January 24, 2014

1 play for now...Durant OUT...

6-5, +$50

Oklahoma City/Boston under 194, laying $110 to win $100 -- Kevin Durant is OUT tonight...I was going to take the Celtics +7, but now with Durant out, you have that situational trend where the team rises up when a star player gets hurt to win that first game in his absence...BUT, how do you replace 40+ points a night which is close to what Durant is averaging the past 2 weeks?...

May have more later as I look at the Board now, late start to my day...

GL...

Ok, help me understand...

Vegas posts an opening line of -4 or -4.5 for Phoenix in their Friday match-up with the Wizards out in sunny Arizona (where it happens to be 75 during the day compared to highs in the teens in PA with wind chills under zero most of the day -- maybe I need to move to the Phoenix area)...

But the line opens at -4 or -4.5 and goes down to -3 or even -2.5 at some shops and of course I see VegasInsider with 96% of the people betting Phoenix and see 80% of the dummies on Covers/Wagerline picking Phoenix (which is NO surprise to me) because I kind of have the same question:

After seeing the Suns dominate the Indiana Pacers (the best team in the league) the final 3 quarters of their game WED night at Phoenix, ending in a 24-point shellacking, the most points the Pacers allowed all season, why on earth one might ask are the Suns only favored by 3 points over the Washington freaking Wizards??...

Since Vegas is not in the business in handing out free money, I would say the Wizards are definitely the play here and will probably get a bet from me tonight...

Although, actually, in this instance, Vegas IS giving us a free winner as the line is basically telling everyone that the Wizards are going to cover that line (and probably win the game straight up)...

What is that line from the movie Casino that Joe Pesci's character Nicky Santoro said?...Oh yeah:

A million times I wanted to yell in his fuckin' ear, "This is Las Vegas. We're supposed to be out here robbin' you dumb fuckin' bleep"...

I left out the slur...

Ok, I am not robbin' Vegas, but if they want to give me a free winner, I'll take one...

So this game and maybe another 1 or 2 others may be posted later tonight as plays...

Friday, January 17, 2014

2 plays for Friday...

I like a lot, but will play these 2, short on time, so short write-ups:

5-4, +$60

Miami Heat -10.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Revenge spot for Philly beating them in Week 1 and the Heat currently have their 1st 3-game losing streak of the year and had an embarrassing loss last time out vs. the Wizards in the Nation's Capital so this is an extreme bounce-back spot and Mario Chalmers also returns tonight for the Heat...Philly has been struggling since their west-coast trip...

Golden State Warriors Pick, laying $100 to win $100 -- OKC coming off a hard-fought win last night at HOU, down 14 at the half and they exerted a lot of defensive energy to hold HOU to 19 points in the 2nd half...GS in bounce-back mode off a tough home loss 2 nights ago and they have been a better team on the Road recently anyway as I look for them to respond tonight and take care of the Thunder, who are still without Westbrook...

GL...

Saturday, January 4, 2014

2 more plays...

I am going to add 2 more plays for tonight...

Cleveland/Brooklyn under 192, laying $110 to win $100 -- No Kylie Irving again tonight for the Cavs and we saw last time out that their offense is out of sync with him missing as they not only miss his 22 PPG but his 6 assists per game...Brooklyn is last in the league in PACE, so this looks to be a boring half-court game with hopefully a lot of bricks going up as the Cavs were 35 points below the total last time out (their first game without Irving in the lineup) and that was an overtime game...

San Antonio Spurs -9.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Generally speaking, you take the team who just lost an injured superstar because the entire team will rise up and win their first game without their superstar (see Cleveland on Thursday and there are many examples from this season already)...But, to me, the Clips rose up last night to win with Chris Paul (Out 3 to 5 weeks after separating his shoulder last night in case you haven't heard) as Paul went out early in the 2H and LAC had to battle almost an entire half without him to win that game late as the Mavs were up by a point with less than 2 minutes to play before the Clips scored the final 8 points of the game...Add the fact that this is a revenge game for the Spurs, who got trounced by the Clips by 23 at Staples 3 weeks ago and add the fact that the Spurs are 7-0 (6-1 ATS) following losses this year and are in bounce-back mode tonight after losing to the Knicks 2 nights ago, you can bet your bottom dollar that the Spurs aren't feeling sorry for the Clips tonight as this could potentially be a bit of a beat down...

GL...