Playing the Miami Heat -3.5, -115, 3Q, laying $115 to win $100...
GL...
Friday, December 30, 2011
2H play...
Overall 4-1, +$290
NBA: 2-1, +$90
New York Knicks -2, -105, 2H, laying $105 to win $100 (Pinny) -- I have my reasons...
GL...
NBA: 2-1, +$90
New York Knicks -2, -105, 2H, laying $105 to win $100 (Pinny) -- I have my reasons...
GL...
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
2H glances...
I am 5-2 on 2H plays, well, that I did NOT play. so far...Sucks not to have the guts to play these games because it is early in the season as perhaps what I need to realize here is that I have been a rock-solid 2H capper the past 2+ years, well, even longer than that really...More like 8 years...
This Indy/Tor game should go Over the 2H total...It's not a top-flyte play, the same way that Atl/NJ over and Utah/LAL Over were not top-flyte 2H plays last night (although both were close), but this game is also damn close to being a "top" play...Both Overs last night won and one of them I did post about...I do have specific criteria that I look for as soon as the game goes to half and many times, even BEFORE the score goes to half, I have it on my radar and am tracking it the last 3 to 4 minutes to see if stays on track for a play...
Probably a play I should make, but I am going to watch it and NOT play it just for "mental note-taking" purposes...
This Indy/Tor game should go Over the 2H total...It's not a top-flyte play, the same way that Atl/NJ over and Utah/LAL Over were not top-flyte 2H plays last night (although both were close), but this game is also damn close to being a "top" play...Both Overs last night won and one of them I did post about...I do have specific criteria that I look for as soon as the game goes to half and many times, even BEFORE the score goes to half, I have it on my radar and am tracking it the last 3 to 4 minutes to see if stays on track for a play...
Probably a play I should make, but I am going to watch it and NOT play it just for "mental note-taking" purposes...
First total bet...
NBA 1-0, + $100
New York/Golden State Over 201.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I promised myself that I would wait until Week 2 before I made a totals bet, but hey, some promises have to be broken when opportunities present themselves...I got the total at 201, but there are still plenty of 201.5 totals on the Board as the total is rising as expected...
I know all that new GS Coach Mark Jackson has done the last 2 weeks is preach defense and his players talk about just that in every interview I have seen with GS players at half-time and during post-game talks whenever a microphone is put in front of a Warriors' player's face...I also know Curry is doubtful for Wednesday's game...
But I also know that GS shot 39% in their opener and then 47% against a very good defensive team vs. Chicago in Game 2 and they now have a 3rd consecutive home game in 4 days and I expect the shooting to continue to improve...The PACE improved for GS in their 2nd game and with the Knicks coming to town, I don't expect the Pace to slow one bit...NY had a very frentic Pace in their opener, and I expect more of the same Wednesday night...Sure, NY now has a stopper in the middle with Tyson Chandler, but he is prone to foul trouble...
I also know that a coach can preach and preach defense all day long, but when you get on the court and see Melo, Amare, Douglas and Fields sprinting up and down the court off a missed a shot, you are going to get caught up in the Pace of the game and run around like maniacs for spurts...
A 1Q bet will be tempting, too...
This total is just too low for a NY/GS match-up, even early in a lock-out season...Total will probably go off around 205 by game time and I still like it Over that total...
GL...
New York/Golden State Over 201.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I promised myself that I would wait until Week 2 before I made a totals bet, but hey, some promises have to be broken when opportunities present themselves...I got the total at 201, but there are still plenty of 201.5 totals on the Board as the total is rising as expected...
I know all that new GS Coach Mark Jackson has done the last 2 weeks is preach defense and his players talk about just that in every interview I have seen with GS players at half-time and during post-game talks whenever a microphone is put in front of a Warriors' player's face...I also know Curry is doubtful for Wednesday's game...
But I also know that GS shot 39% in their opener and then 47% against a very good defensive team vs. Chicago in Game 2 and they now have a 3rd consecutive home game in 4 days and I expect the shooting to continue to improve...The PACE improved for GS in their 2nd game and with the Knicks coming to town, I don't expect the Pace to slow one bit...NY had a very frentic Pace in their opener, and I expect more of the same Wednesday night...Sure, NY now has a stopper in the middle with Tyson Chandler, but he is prone to foul trouble...
I also know that a coach can preach and preach defense all day long, but when you get on the court and see Melo, Amare, Douglas and Fields sprinting up and down the court off a missed a shot, you are going to get caught up in the Pace of the game and run around like maniacs for spurts...
A 1Q bet will be tempting, too...
This total is just too low for a NY/GS match-up, even early in a lock-out season...Total will probably go off around 205 by game time and I still like it Over that total...
GL...
Jazz/Lakers 2H...
I am tired and ready for bed after working 14 hours today, so I am not going to make this play, but all factors point to a 2H Over here...
The PACE is just fine for an Over and I expect Utah to quicken the pace even more in the 2H...
No play, as I still have 4 months of the regular season games left and ample opportunities, so I will just watch (or look at the score after I wake up on WED) and see how it turns out...
The PACE is just fine for an Over and I expect Utah to quicken the pace even more in the 2H...
No play, as I still have 4 months of the regular season games left and ample opportunities, so I will just watch (or look at the score after I wake up on WED) and see how it turns out...
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
3-games-in-3-days trend debuts tonight...
I loved this trend during the strike-shortened 1998-99 season...Loved it...Did very well with it...There were 64 teams who had a 3-in-3 spot that season...
But, as they say, past performance does NOT guarantee future results...So I cannot assume that the Away Teams will clean up covering all games where either the away team, home team or both teams were playing their third game in 3 days...
I will break down those numbers later tonight...
For now, I have to look at the only team in 1998-99 who played 3 straight right out of the gate like the Lakers are doing tonight...
The Atlanta Hawks started out quick in 1998-99, winning 4 of their first 5, and their only loss was that 3rd game in 3 nights spot...It was also the back-end of a home-and-home with NJ...NJ was rested for the front-end at ATL, but the Hawks won by 5, Not Covering the 5.5 point spread...Both teams then went to NJ where the Nets won by 10 the following night...
Which, unfortunately, doesn't compare too well to this Lakers' situation tonight, because LAL is 0-2 SU compared to the Hawks 2-0 SU 13 seasons ago and the Lakers are coming Home for this 3rd game while the Hawks were on the Road...
I will break down the totals later, too, but there were more Overs than Unders...
But since the Away Teams had major success covering spreads in all 3-in-3 situations in 1998-99, the default play this season will always be "take the Away team", unless evidence later in the season dictates we need to reverse this...
With the Lakers at 0-2 to start the season, I actually see some value with the Lake-Show...I doubt if I will take them, but this more or less looks like a no-play for me...
But, as they say, past performance does NOT guarantee future results...So I cannot assume that the Away Teams will clean up covering all games where either the away team, home team or both teams were playing their third game in 3 days...
I will break down those numbers later tonight...
For now, I have to look at the only team in 1998-99 who played 3 straight right out of the gate like the Lakers are doing tonight...
The Atlanta Hawks started out quick in 1998-99, winning 4 of their first 5, and their only loss was that 3rd game in 3 nights spot...It was also the back-end of a home-and-home with NJ...NJ was rested for the front-end at ATL, but the Hawks won by 5, Not Covering the 5.5 point spread...Both teams then went to NJ where the Nets won by 10 the following night...
Which, unfortunately, doesn't compare too well to this Lakers' situation tonight, because LAL is 0-2 SU compared to the Hawks 2-0 SU 13 seasons ago and the Lakers are coming Home for this 3rd game while the Hawks were on the Road...
I will break down the totals later, too, but there were more Overs than Unders...
But since the Away Teams had major success covering spreads in all 3-in-3 situations in 1998-99, the default play this season will always be "take the Away team", unless evidence later in the season dictates we need to reverse this...
With the Lakers at 0-2 to start the season, I actually see some value with the Lake-Show...I doubt if I will take them, but this more or less looks like a no-play for me...
Monday, December 26, 2011
Taking it easy Week 1...
I am only going to post my best plays...And that means I will be taking it easy in Week 1 because I need to see how these games play out at this point of the season and compare these results to the strike-shortened 1998-99 season, which I have detailed in my database...
Very rare to get a great situational spot on Opening Day, but it was there, so I took advantage...Every play this year will be for 1 unit, although the old me would have plastered 5 units on that first play...
I may post a "lean of the night", maybe, we'll see, and if I had to post one tonight, it would be Denver...But I am not playing it...I have off tonight and will have my NBA package on and will be scrutinizing 2H plays all night and if a good one pops up, I will play it and post it...
With my busy nightly work schedule of the past 4+ years, I have had to adapt to this lack of time and in doing so, I have now become a fairly adept 2H capper, with some regular plays sprinkled in along the way...
So 60 to 75% of my plays (maybe more) may be 2H plays this season, as they were the last 2 or 3 seasons...And I probably won't have time to post any analysis on those plays as I was recruited to have my picks tracked at a tracking site for this season, so I will need to file my play there first, then bet the game, then go to my blog and then hit a forum or 2...
I am fairly sure I won't play a total till Week 2, but the Unders should be plentiful in Week 1, but apparently with the Internet, folks already know this and are jumping on Unders here tonight as it seems like every total has come down...
GL this season folks...
Very rare to get a great situational spot on Opening Day, but it was there, so I took advantage...Every play this year will be for 1 unit, although the old me would have plastered 5 units on that first play...
I may post a "lean of the night", maybe, we'll see, and if I had to post one tonight, it would be Denver...But I am not playing it...I have off tonight and will have my NBA package on and will be scrutinizing 2H plays all night and if a good one pops up, I will play it and post it...
With my busy nightly work schedule of the past 4+ years, I have had to adapt to this lack of time and in doing so, I have now become a fairly adept 2H capper, with some regular plays sprinkled in along the way...
So 60 to 75% of my plays (maybe more) may be 2H plays this season, as they were the last 2 or 3 seasons...And I probably won't have time to post any analysis on those plays as I was recruited to have my picks tracked at a tracking site for this season, so I will need to file my play there first, then bet the game, then go to my blog and then hit a forum or 2...
I am fairly sure I won't play a total till Week 2, but the Unders should be plentiful in Week 1, but apparently with the Internet, folks already know this and are jumping on Unders here tonight as it seems like every total has come down...
GL this season folks...
Thursday, December 22, 2011
First bet of the NBA 2011-12 season...
All picks tracked at TipsterPicks.com...
1 unit = $100
Overall: 2-0, +$200 (2 NFL picks)
NBA: 0-0, $0
Miami Heat -4, laying $106 to win $100 -- I am kinda ticked I didn't jump on this one as soon as the line came out about 2 weeks ago as I loved this one as soon as it was announced by the NBA schedule-makers...Lost some value, but am I going to make a 4-point line movement take me off a game that I am convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Heat will win?...
Nope...
I have a LOT of trends that I like, and the motivational trends are my favorites, because they win and they stand the test of time...You still have to throw out the anomalies, but they stand the test of time...The trend that I like here is:
You take the team (Miami) who is playing the opponent (Dallas) who eliminated them from the playoffs the previous season for the first time in the current regular season...
Miami has all the motivation here...My database only goes back to the 1981-82 season, but in the last 30 seasons, only once before have the 2 teams in the Finals the season before met opening day, and that was FEB 5th of 1999, ironically enough, the other strike-shortened season...I mentioned that anomalies have to be thrown out...Well, that game has to be "thrown out" because Utah, who lost to the Michael Jordan Chicago Bulls in the Finals the year before (for the 2nd straight year) hosted the Bulls on 2/5/99, opening night and the Bulls roster looked a LOT different that night at Utah than it did in the Finals the previous season as Jordan, Scottie Pippen and others blew town and the Jazz were 17-point favorites...Utah won the game (by 8), but could not cover the mammoth line...
But the last 6 instances, the Finals loser has gone 5-1 SU and 3-0-3 ATS and the Away team is 4-1 SU and 2-0-3 in those 5 games...The Finals loser is 19-11 SU and 15-12-3 ATS the past 30 seasons...The Finals loser as an Away team is 10-5-3 ATS in this spot...
LeBron's Cavaliers beat the Spurs on 1/17/08 at San Antonio as 7.5 point DOGs...
These Heat players will be stewing as they watch the Mavs get their rings and the banner gets raised...And with Tyson Chandler gone (to NY), I don't know who is going to stop the Heat if they decide to take the ball to the hoop with regularity...
The Big 3 now have a full season under their belts and they are ready and raring to go this season...They have a LOT to prove in 2011-12 and they will want to make a statement on Opening Day on National TV to make sure that everyone knows the Heat are the team to beat, for real, this time around...
GL...
1 unit = $100
Overall: 2-0, +$200 (2 NFL picks)
NBA: 0-0, $0
Miami Heat -4, laying $106 to win $100 -- I am kinda ticked I didn't jump on this one as soon as the line came out about 2 weeks ago as I loved this one as soon as it was announced by the NBA schedule-makers...Lost some value, but am I going to make a 4-point line movement take me off a game that I am convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Heat will win?...
Nope...
I have a LOT of trends that I like, and the motivational trends are my favorites, because they win and they stand the test of time...You still have to throw out the anomalies, but they stand the test of time...The trend that I like here is:
You take the team (Miami) who is playing the opponent (Dallas) who eliminated them from the playoffs the previous season for the first time in the current regular season...
Miami has all the motivation here...My database only goes back to the 1981-82 season, but in the last 30 seasons, only once before have the 2 teams in the Finals the season before met opening day, and that was FEB 5th of 1999, ironically enough, the other strike-shortened season...I mentioned that anomalies have to be thrown out...Well, that game has to be "thrown out" because Utah, who lost to the Michael Jordan Chicago Bulls in the Finals the year before (for the 2nd straight year) hosted the Bulls on 2/5/99, opening night and the Bulls roster looked a LOT different that night at Utah than it did in the Finals the previous season as Jordan, Scottie Pippen and others blew town and the Jazz were 17-point favorites...Utah won the game (by 8), but could not cover the mammoth line...
But the last 6 instances, the Finals loser has gone 5-1 SU and 3-0-3 ATS and the Away team is 4-1 SU and 2-0-3 in those 5 games...The Finals loser is 19-11 SU and 15-12-3 ATS the past 30 seasons...The Finals loser as an Away team is 10-5-3 ATS in this spot...
LeBron's Cavaliers beat the Spurs on 1/17/08 at San Antonio as 7.5 point DOGs...
These Heat players will be stewing as they watch the Mavs get their rings and the banner gets raised...And with Tyson Chandler gone (to NY), I don't know who is going to stop the Heat if they decide to take the ball to the hoop with regularity...
The Big 3 now have a full season under their belts and they are ready and raring to go this season...They have a LOT to prove in 2011-12 and they will want to make a statement on Opening Day on National TV to make sure that everyone knows the Heat are the team to beat, for real, this time around...
GL...
NBA Preseason "Rule of Thumb" doing well again...
As stated last night, DOGs and Unders the "rule of thumb" for picking NBA Preseason games, and tonight, through 7 games, we have DOGs at 6-1 ATS and the Under at 5-2...
20-6 the last 2 nights with one game pending...
For NCAAF Bowl Games, the "Rule of Thumb" is to take the DOGs and the Overs...The more points the DOG gets, the stronger the play...Another sweep tonight as the Poinsettia Bowl was an Over and the 9.5 point DOG covered fairly easily as they were up 7 about halfway into the 4Q before losing the game, but covering...
20-6 the last 2 nights with one game pending...
For NCAAF Bowl Games, the "Rule of Thumb" is to take the DOGs and the Overs...The more points the DOG gets, the stronger the play...Another sweep tonight as the Poinsettia Bowl was an Over and the 9.5 point DOG covered fairly easily as they were up 7 about halfway into the 4Q before losing the game, but covering...
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Brewers7 tracked by a professional tracking site...
Here is my page on the tracking site:
TipsterPicks
As far as Tuesday's NBA preseason action goes, it went true to form as the DOGs covered 5 of 6 and 4 of 6 went Under...I have always said as a Rule of Thumb, you take DOGs of 4 points or more in the NBA preseason...The more points they give me, the more I like the DOG...There are exceptions to every rule, of course...
I already have a play lined up for Christmas Day...
Very unique situation that I cannot pass up as I am a big situational capper...
Stay tuned...
TipsterPicks
As far as Tuesday's NBA preseason action goes, it went true to form as the DOGs covered 5 of 6 and 4 of 6 went Under...I have always said as a Rule of Thumb, you take DOGs of 4 points or more in the NBA preseason...The more points they give me, the more I like the DOG...There are exceptions to every rule, of course...
I already have a play lined up for Christmas Day...
Very unique situation that I cannot pass up as I am a big situational capper...
Stay tuned...
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Another easy Under in an afternoon NBA game...
Already had a an easy under on Saturday afternoon when the Knicks visited the Nets and this Boston/Toronto game this afternoon is looking like a Stone Under...I always look at Unders to begin with in NBA preseason games, especially with this brief preseason where there was about a week's worth of training camp...
But everyone who knows me knows how I love the NBA Unders with games that start before 4:00 p.m. local time in the time zone where the game is being played at, and the earlier the start time the more I like the Under and that has been very successful in the past several years in the NBA for regular season games...
Looks like there will be a 2-0 start for that trend in the preseason this year...
I also made 2 NFL plays on http://www.tipsterpicks.com/, a website that tracks handicappers...I have been heating up in the NFL, going 4-1 the last 2 weeks...I have KC and Miami and those 2 picks were posted last night on tipsterpicks...
But everyone who knows me knows how I love the NBA Unders with games that start before 4:00 p.m. local time in the time zone where the game is being played at, and the earlier the start time the more I like the Under and that has been very successful in the past several years in the NBA for regular season games...
Looks like there will be a 2-0 start for that trend in the preseason this year...
I also made 2 NFL plays on http://www.tipsterpicks.com/, a website that tracks handicappers...I have been heating up in the NFL, going 4-1 the last 2 weeks...I have KC and Miami and those 2 picks were posted last night on tipsterpicks...
The 2011-12 NBA season draws near...
With my busy schedule, it may be impossible to post some nights, but I am excited for this shortened/condensed season, because I had one of my best seasons the last time the NBA had a shortened season in 1998-99...
Of course, past results do not guarantee future performance, but I will post as much as I am able to this season and we'll see how it goes...
Of course, past results do not guarantee future performance, but I will post as much as I am able to this season and we'll see how it goes...
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