Sides:
1) Det, 2) Utah, 3) Sac, 4) Dal
Totals:
1) Sac un, 2) Utah un, 3) Dal ov, 4) Det ov
All 4 Sides I consider to be games where you pick these 4 teams or you stay off the game...I just don't think you can go the other way on any of these and bet real money...And when nights like this have happened in the past, I usually have a good night so I am hoping for no worse than a 3-1 night...We'll see...I may have to bet Detroit and Utah here...
Sunday, December 30, 2012
Saturday, December 29, 2012
Saturday rankings...
Sides:
1) Memp, 2) Min, 3) Chi, 4) OKC, 5) Bkn, 6) Ind, 7) Phi, 8) Bos, 9) Char, 10) Tor, 11) Milw
Totals:
1) Memp ov, 2) OKC ov, 3) Min un, 4) Char ov, 5) Bos un, 6) Phi ov, 7) Chi un, 8) Milw un, 9) Tor ov, 10) Bkn ov, 11) Ind ov
Notes:
Very rare for me to have chalk in my top 5 sides with 11 games on the Board...So with that said, I think I will pass one more time on game bets and look for 2H plays...
Phoenix is 0-6 ATS in back-enders this season...Denver has already beaten Memphis twice this year and I had Denver on the moneyline as a 7-point Dog at Memphis in November, but I wonder if Denver's horrific schedule will catch up to them here...Nuggets 6-1 ATS on back-enders, but Memphis is 3-0-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...
1) Memp, 2) Min, 3) Chi, 4) OKC, 5) Bkn, 6) Ind, 7) Phi, 8) Bos, 9) Char, 10) Tor, 11) Milw
Totals:
1) Memp ov, 2) OKC ov, 3) Min un, 4) Char ov, 5) Bos un, 6) Phi ov, 7) Chi un, 8) Milw un, 9) Tor ov, 10) Bkn ov, 11) Ind ov
Notes:
Very rare for me to have chalk in my top 5 sides with 11 games on the Board...So with that said, I think I will pass one more time on game bets and look for 2H plays...
Phoenix is 0-6 ATS in back-enders this season...Denver has already beaten Memphis twice this year and I had Denver on the moneyline as a 7-point Dog at Memphis in November, but I wonder if Denver's horrific schedule will catch up to them here...Nuggets 6-1 ATS on back-enders, but Memphis is 3-0-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...
Friday, December 28, 2012
Friday rankings and notes...
Sides:
1) Ind, 2) Bkn, 3) Hou, 4) Utah, 5) Cle, 6) Sac, 7) Was, 8) Phi, 9) NO, 10) Mia, 11) Dal, 12) Port
Totals:
1) Den ov, 2) Bkn ov, 3) Phi un, 4) Cle ov, 5) Mia un, 6) Hou ov, 7) NO un, 8) Was un, 9) Sac ov, 10) Utah un, 11) Port ov, 12) Ind ov
Notes:
Obviously, the "new coach angle" has surfaced tonight in Brooklyn...This trend has been money in recent years, going 3-0 in the NFL last season and either 3-0 or 4-0 in the NBA last season...No NFL coaching changes this year, although we had a player killed before 2 games (KC & DAL) and a coach stepping aside for a leave of absence to fight cancer (IND) and those 3 teams all won and covered...
With all of that said, if there is ever a game where this trend will NOT cover, it is tonight, as Brooklyn is favored by 10 against a team who has lost 16 in a row...But with that said, it's either take Brooklyn or lay off the game...Charlotte certainly can be blown out at any time...
1) Ind, 2) Bkn, 3) Hou, 4) Utah, 5) Cle, 6) Sac, 7) Was, 8) Phi, 9) NO, 10) Mia, 11) Dal, 12) Port
Totals:
1) Den ov, 2) Bkn ov, 3) Phi un, 4) Cle ov, 5) Mia un, 6) Hou ov, 7) NO un, 8) Was un, 9) Sac ov, 10) Utah un, 11) Port ov, 12) Ind ov
Notes:
Obviously, the "new coach angle" has surfaced tonight in Brooklyn...This trend has been money in recent years, going 3-0 in the NFL last season and either 3-0 or 4-0 in the NBA last season...No NFL coaching changes this year, although we had a player killed before 2 games (KC & DAL) and a coach stepping aside for a leave of absence to fight cancer (IND) and those 3 teams all won and covered...
With all of that said, if there is ever a game where this trend will NOT cover, it is tonight, as Brooklyn is favored by 10 against a team who has lost 16 in a row...But with that said, it's either take Brooklyn or lay off the game...Charlotte certainly can be blown out at any time...
Thursday, December 27, 2012
Thursday rankings...
I am close to breaking out...Kinda feel it...Hope I am not jinxing myself...Going to lay off the bets for another night though...
Sides:
1) Dal, 2) Bos
Totals:
1) Bos un, 2) Dal un
Nothing strong enough to make me feel comfortable betting real money on tonight...Had OKC beat Miami, I would have bet Dallas...The Mavs are off a 38-point loss, have Nowitzki back for a 2nd game and have that revenge trend where they are playing the team who eliminated them from the playoffs last season for the first time this season...That trend did NOT work for OKC on Christmas, although Durant's late FT miss changed the complexion of the final minute and the homer refs, who will never call a foul on Wade or LeBron in the final seconds of a game, even if a rape and pillage is taking place in full view of everyone...
I want to take Boston, too, but the Clips are just on a tear...They can blow out Boston here...Clips on a front-ender, so they won't be over-extending starters, not that they need to ever with the bench they have...
But I like both Dogs, despite the fact that the potential is there for both of 'em to lose by 25...
Sides:
1) Dal, 2) Bos
Totals:
1) Bos un, 2) Dal un
Nothing strong enough to make me feel comfortable betting real money on tonight...Had OKC beat Miami, I would have bet Dallas...The Mavs are off a 38-point loss, have Nowitzki back for a 2nd game and have that revenge trend where they are playing the team who eliminated them from the playoffs last season for the first time this season...That trend did NOT work for OKC on Christmas, although Durant's late FT miss changed the complexion of the final minute and the homer refs, who will never call a foul on Wade or LeBron in the final seconds of a game, even if a rape and pillage is taking place in full view of everyone...
I want to take Boston, too, but the Clips are just on a tear...They can blow out Boston here...Clips on a front-ender, so they won't be over-extending starters, not that they need to ever with the bench they have...
But I like both Dogs, despite the fact that the potential is there for both of 'em to lose by 25...
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
Wednesday rankings...
Yesterday a microcosm of the past several weeks as I went 7-3 overall with my picks but 0-2 with my 2 bets...Also went 0-2 with two 2H bets and got so frustrated, I passed on Denver 2H as that qualified easily as a 2H play and of course won...
Just because I am due to break out of my cold streak doesn't mean I will...So I think I'll pass until I feel that I am legitimately getting hot, although I will say, I think I am on the verge as I track all my picks daily and after 7 or 8 straight mediocre days around .500 with all my picks, I am 8-4 and 7-3 the last 2 days...Just need to start betting the right picks...
Sides:
1) Den, 2) NO, 3) Chi, 4) Phi, 5) Phoe, 6) Utah, 7) Was, 8) Min, 9) Port, 10) Atl, 11) Milw, 12) SA, 13) Mia
Totals:
1) Chi un, 2) Phi ov, 3) Min ov, 4) NO un, 5) Atl un, 6) Phoe ov, 7) Utah ov, 8) Port un, 9) SA ov, 10) Den ov, 11) Milw un, 12) Mia un, 13) Was un
Notes:
Bulls & Pacers top 2 in the league in FG% allowed and the Bulls should be plenty motivated to step it up defensively after their last 2 games and especially after last night...I may have had DEN one night too early...Nuggets 5-1 ATS on back-enders and the Lakers 2-3 ATS in back-enders and the Nuggets have a revenge spot after the Lakers blew them out at Staples in late November...DEN 8-1 SU at Home, too, with a low number to get over tonight...Big-time chart-plays on Philly and the Memphis Over as MEMP had an Under7 snapped last time out...My only concern is that Philly is already on a smaller chart-play to the Under and the Memphis game that went Over was against Houston, so heck, everyone goes over against them and that was a back-ender for MEMP, too...
Just because I am due to break out of my cold streak doesn't mean I will...So I think I'll pass until I feel that I am legitimately getting hot, although I will say, I think I am on the verge as I track all my picks daily and after 7 or 8 straight mediocre days around .500 with all my picks, I am 8-4 and 7-3 the last 2 days...Just need to start betting the right picks...
Sides:
1) Den, 2) NO, 3) Chi, 4) Phi, 5) Phoe, 6) Utah, 7) Was, 8) Min, 9) Port, 10) Atl, 11) Milw, 12) SA, 13) Mia
Totals:
1) Chi un, 2) Phi ov, 3) Min ov, 4) NO un, 5) Atl un, 6) Phoe ov, 7) Utah ov, 8) Port un, 9) SA ov, 10) Den ov, 11) Milw un, 12) Mia un, 13) Was un
Notes:
Bulls & Pacers top 2 in the league in FG% allowed and the Bulls should be plenty motivated to step it up defensively after their last 2 games and especially after last night...I may have had DEN one night too early...Nuggets 5-1 ATS on back-enders and the Lakers 2-3 ATS in back-enders and the Nuggets have a revenge spot after the Lakers blew them out at Staples in late November...DEN 8-1 SU at Home, too, with a low number to get over tonight...Big-time chart-plays on Philly and the Memphis Over as MEMP had an Under7 snapped last time out...My only concern is that Philly is already on a smaller chart-play to the Under and the Memphis game that went Over was against Houston, so heck, everyone goes over against them and that was a back-ender for MEMP, too...
Tuesday, December 25, 2012
Tuesday rankings and plays...
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays...Hopefully I have 2 Christmas presents for everyone today...
Sides:
1) Den, 2) OKC, 3) Hou, 4) Bos, 5) LAL
Totals:
1) OKC un, 2) Bos un, 3) LAL un, 4) Den un, 5) Hou ov
To me, there are 4 no-brainer plays and I should just play all 4 -- the top 2 sides & top 2 totals...But I'll pass on the 2 totals and play the 2 sides...My cliff-notes thoughts on those totals are simple -- Bos/Bkn is the early afternoon game, therefore the Under (not to mention that Bkn has played 6 straight Unders in regulation time) and the OKC/Mia game has a Miami team that has finally turned up the defensive intensity...They have gone Under 5 out of their last 6 (all at Home) and even OKC has gone Under 3 straight and 4 of 5...
Plays:
Denver Nuggets +7, laying $110 to win $100 -- I will sprinkle a little on the moneyline here as the Nuggets certainly have a good chance to win this game outright...The Clips have won a franchise record 13 straight games and remember I said right here on this blog after they won Game #2 of this streak that the Clips were about to go on a roll...If you don't believe me, go to my post on DEC 3rd...But all good things must come to an end at some point...I mentioned a few days back that the OKC streak would be ending any day when they hit 12 in a row and they did lose their next time out...It is hard to keep winning games in the NBA once you have a win streak over 10...The Nuggets have been playing better of late, too, winning 4 of 5...And don't get me wrong, the Clips winning streak is impressive, but they have only beat 4 teams with winning records during this streak and the Clips had favorable situational spots over 2 of those teams...2 of those 4 teams are just 1 game over .500 (Minny and Utah) and Milwaukee is 2 games over .500 and the best team they beat was Chicago, who is 15-11...Denver is just 2 games over .500, but their record is deceiving as the schedule-makers gave them a horrific slate to start the season as this will already be Denver's 20th Road game, compared to just 9 Home games thus far...DEN has covered 6 of their last 7 and has 2 days rest for this one, so the Clips don't catch them in a favorable spot...7 points is just too much here, IMO, for a team who can win this game outright...
Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5, laying $100 to win $102 -- Feel free to take the Moneyline and I almost did, but the reason I did not is because the Heat are playing MUCH better recently...Much better...And the Heat, at Home, have found ways to pull out games even when they were not playing that well...They can turn it up a notch at Home and pull the game out in the final minutes, so to me, getting 2 1/2 at plus juice is fine in case the game comes down to the final shot and Miami has the ball and wins it at the buzzer...I believe OKC will win this one...The angle is the classic "take the team playing an opponent who eliminated them from the playoffs the season before in the first match-up of the new season"...Classic revenge spot that does well...This game should be down to the wire...I like OKC to win it...
GL...
Sides:
1) Den, 2) OKC, 3) Hou, 4) Bos, 5) LAL
Totals:
1) OKC un, 2) Bos un, 3) LAL un, 4) Den un, 5) Hou ov
To me, there are 4 no-brainer plays and I should just play all 4 -- the top 2 sides & top 2 totals...But I'll pass on the 2 totals and play the 2 sides...My cliff-notes thoughts on those totals are simple -- Bos/Bkn is the early afternoon game, therefore the Under (not to mention that Bkn has played 6 straight Unders in regulation time) and the OKC/Mia game has a Miami team that has finally turned up the defensive intensity...They have gone Under 5 out of their last 6 (all at Home) and even OKC has gone Under 3 straight and 4 of 5...
Plays:
Denver Nuggets +7, laying $110 to win $100 -- I will sprinkle a little on the moneyline here as the Nuggets certainly have a good chance to win this game outright...The Clips have won a franchise record 13 straight games and remember I said right here on this blog after they won Game #2 of this streak that the Clips were about to go on a roll...If you don't believe me, go to my post on DEC 3rd...But all good things must come to an end at some point...I mentioned a few days back that the OKC streak would be ending any day when they hit 12 in a row and they did lose their next time out...It is hard to keep winning games in the NBA once you have a win streak over 10...The Nuggets have been playing better of late, too, winning 4 of 5...And don't get me wrong, the Clips winning streak is impressive, but they have only beat 4 teams with winning records during this streak and the Clips had favorable situational spots over 2 of those teams...2 of those 4 teams are just 1 game over .500 (Minny and Utah) and Milwaukee is 2 games over .500 and the best team they beat was Chicago, who is 15-11...Denver is just 2 games over .500, but their record is deceiving as the schedule-makers gave them a horrific slate to start the season as this will already be Denver's 20th Road game, compared to just 9 Home games thus far...DEN has covered 6 of their last 7 and has 2 days rest for this one, so the Clips don't catch them in a favorable spot...7 points is just too much here, IMO, for a team who can win this game outright...
Oklahoma City Thunder +2.5, laying $100 to win $102 -- Feel free to take the Moneyline and I almost did, but the reason I did not is because the Heat are playing MUCH better recently...Much better...And the Heat, at Home, have found ways to pull out games even when they were not playing that well...They can turn it up a notch at Home and pull the game out in the final minutes, so to me, getting 2 1/2 at plus juice is fine in case the game comes down to the final shot and Miami has the ball and wins it at the buzzer...I believe OKC will win this one...The angle is the classic "take the team playing an opponent who eliminated them from the playoffs the season before in the first match-up of the new season"...Classic revenge spot that does well...This game should be down to the wire...I like OKC to win it...
GL...
Sunday, December 23, 2012
Sunday rankings...
Sides:
1) Phi, 2) Dal, 3) Phoe, 4) Min, 5) Utah, 6) Sac
Totals:
1) Phi un, 2) Utah un, 3) Dal ov, 4) Phoe un, 5) Min un, 6) Sac un
Will stalk for 2H plays...
1) Phi, 2) Dal, 3) Phoe, 4) Min, 5) Utah, 6) Sac
Totals:
1) Phi un, 2) Utah un, 3) Dal ov, 4) Phoe un, 5) Min un, 6) Sac un
Will stalk for 2H plays...
Sunday...
Just realized this game ran, but I like Philly and the Under a lot, as we do have the afternoon Under angle again and a chart-play on Philly here...I did forget to bet them as I was swamped at work...Maybe I'll grab a 2H play if the score and lines are in my favor...
Back with rankings in a bit...
Back with rankings in a bit...
Friday, December 21, 2012
Friday rankings...
Sides:
1) Memp, 2) Was, 3) Char, 4) Sac, 5) NO, 6) Tor, 7) Bos, 8) Cle, 9) Atl, 10) NY
Totals:
1) Tor un, 2) Sac un, 3) Atl un, 4) NY un, 5) Was un, 6) Memp un, 7) Char un, 8) NO ov, 9) Bos un, 10) Cle ov
I believe I will stalk for 2H plays again...
1) Memp, 2) Was, 3) Char, 4) Sac, 5) NO, 6) Tor, 7) Bos, 8) Cle, 9) Atl, 10) NY
Totals:
1) Tor un, 2) Sac un, 3) Atl un, 4) NY un, 5) Was un, 6) Memp un, 7) Char un, 8) NO ov, 9) Bos un, 10) Cle ov
I believe I will stalk for 2H plays again...
Thursday, December 20, 2012
Thursday rankings...
Sides:
1) Den, 2) Mia, 3) OKC
Totals:
1) OKC ov, 2) Mia ov, 3) Den un
My last two #1 Sides have come in and I liked Denver a lot 2 nights ago and MEMP was fairly easy from the 2Q onwards although it got interesting down the stretch...
Denver is heating up...They have had a terrible schedule with an insane number of Road games...Just when I thought they were getting some Home games, they play at SAC on TUE and are at PORT tonight...As soon as Denver gets Home for a while, they will go on a tear...PORT is missing Aldridge tonight, and that is just huge...Wes Matthews still questionable...Other than Lillard and Batum, where are the points going to come from?...They combined for 27 last time out...Sure, J.J. Hickson had 24 points, but he had 8 offensive boards which led to a lot of those points...I'll stick with Denver until they don't cover and they have covered 5 straight coming into tonight...
I have been taking Miami way too many times this year as this has been a team in coast-mode for a good month now, but at some point they are going to start showing up more regularly...The Heat should be able to maul this Dallas team, but I am not sure if I can bet Miami here although to me, they are the only play in that game...
And OKC has won 12 straight...Whenever a win-streak hits 10 in the NBA, I get wary...OKC is rolling for sure, but now they go on the Road after 5 straight Home games and have a back-ender to boot against a solid Minnesota team with a day's rest...This win-streak isn't going to last much longer and tonight could be a night they got upset, although it would be a mild upset with Minny as a 3-point FAV...
1) Den, 2) Mia, 3) OKC
Totals:
1) OKC ov, 2) Mia ov, 3) Den un
My last two #1 Sides have come in and I liked Denver a lot 2 nights ago and MEMP was fairly easy from the 2Q onwards although it got interesting down the stretch...
Denver is heating up...They have had a terrible schedule with an insane number of Road games...Just when I thought they were getting some Home games, they play at SAC on TUE and are at PORT tonight...As soon as Denver gets Home for a while, they will go on a tear...PORT is missing Aldridge tonight, and that is just huge...Wes Matthews still questionable...Other than Lillard and Batum, where are the points going to come from?...They combined for 27 last time out...Sure, J.J. Hickson had 24 points, but he had 8 offensive boards which led to a lot of those points...I'll stick with Denver until they don't cover and they have covered 5 straight coming into tonight...
I have been taking Miami way too many times this year as this has been a team in coast-mode for a good month now, but at some point they are going to start showing up more regularly...The Heat should be able to maul this Dallas team, but I am not sure if I can bet Miami here although to me, they are the only play in that game...
And OKC has won 12 straight...Whenever a win-streak hits 10 in the NBA, I get wary...OKC is rolling for sure, but now they go on the Road after 5 straight Home games and have a back-ender to boot against a solid Minnesota team with a day's rest...This win-streak isn't going to last much longer and tonight could be a night they got upset, although it would be a mild upset with Minny as a 3-point FAV...
Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
Tuesday rankings...
Sorry for lateness...No bets until I win a #1 Sides play or maybe if I like a total because the totals are doing well for me the last 3 weeks...I like DEN in this revenge spot and the Nuggets are playing well, while SA is suddenly struggling...If Ginobili is OUT, I'll probably play DEN...But man, my Sides have been TERRIBLE the last 3 weeks...When I break out, I'll probably get scorching hot, but there are no signs of breaking out yet...
Sides:
1) Den, 2) Mia, 3) Was, 4) Bkn 5) LAL, 6) NO, 7) Bos, 8) Ind, 9) Phi, 10) Tor
Totals:
1) Tor un, 2) Was un, 3) Mia ov, 4) Phi ov, 5) Den ov, 6) Bos un, 7) NO ov, 8) Ind un, 9) LAL ov, 10) Bkn un
Sides:
1) Den, 2) Mia, 3) Was, 4) Bkn 5) LAL, 6) NO, 7) Bos, 8) Ind, 9) Phi, 10) Tor
Totals:
1) Tor un, 2) Was un, 3) Mia ov, 4) Phi ov, 5) Den ov, 6) Bos un, 7) NO ov, 8) Ind un, 9) LAL ov, 10) Bkn un
Monday, December 17, 2012
Melo out tonight...
Carmelo Anthony OUT for the Knicks tonight and the line is dropping...
Still like the Knicks to win and cover but without Melo, I am not betting it now...
Still like the Knicks to win and cover but without Melo, I am not betting it now...
Mondays rankings & notes...
#1 Sides continue to struggle while #1 Totals have turned the corner about a week or so ahead of schedule as I said to start looking at my totals in mid-DEC and my #1 totals are 12-6 the last 18 days...#1 sides have been atrocious with all the 1/2-point & less than 1-bucket losses the last 18 days s that cold streak started the day my #1 totals started doing well...
I am still not going to bet a #1 Side unless I am also betting the #2 and/or #3 sides with it or until I see signs of the #1 Side heating up which I haven't seen yet...The thing is, I actually like all of my sides tonight and feel like I should go at least 4-2 with these 6 games, but we'll see, I may just play 2H lines or put together a teaser...
Notes:
HOU is 1-4 ATS on back-enders...NYK have a revenge spot here as the Rockets trounced them by 28 points at the Toyota Center just over 3 weeks ago...Minny gets Kevin Love back while ORL probably doesn't have Affalo tonight...Spurs are without Ginobili tonight, but are good enough to rise up without him for a night...
Sides:
1) Min, 2 NY, 3) SA, 4) Chi, 5) Sac, 6) LAC
Totals:
1) NY ov, 2) Chi un, 3) Min un, 4) LAC un, 5) Sac un, 6) SA un
Sunday, December 16, 2012
Sunday rankings...
Sides:
1) Phi, 2) Tor, 3) Port, 4) Sac
Totals:
1) Phi ov, 2) Sac ov, 3) Port un, 4) Tor un
I'll look for 2H bets...
NFL trap of the day game -- Take the Houston Texans as that line is telling me that they are apparently going to win by double-digits...
1) Phi, 2) Tor, 3) Port, 4) Sac
Totals:
1) Phi ov, 2) Sac ov, 3) Port un, 4) Tor un
I'll look for 2H bets...
NFL trap of the day game -- Take the Houston Texans as that line is telling me that they are apparently going to win by double-digits...
Saturday, December 15, 2012
NBA Saturday rankings...
A few quick notes:
GS 6-1 ATS following a loss this season...ATL 3-7-1 ATS at Home...
WAS 4-0 ATS in back-enders...MIA 3-3 ATS in check-mark games (where they have rest playing a team on a back-ender)...Miami lost to the Wiz 11 days ago and are coming off a loss at home vs GS...
Sides:
1) Dal, 2) GS, 3) SA, 4) Chi, 5) Mia, 6) Milw, 7) Memp, 8) NY, 9) Ind, 10) Orl
Totals:
1) Memp un, 2) Milw un, 3) Orl un, 4) GS un, 5) SA un, 6) Chi un, 7) Dal un, 8) NY ov, 9) Mia un, 10) Ind ov
I will pass on plays again and see if I can hit another #1 Side...
Kevin Love is struggling in Minnesota and if Rubio is playing tonight, this will effect their rotations and Dallas is off a bad loss last night so I like Dallas...
GS 6-1 ATS following a loss this season...ATL 3-7-1 ATS at Home...
WAS 4-0 ATS in back-enders...MIA 3-3 ATS in check-mark games (where they have rest playing a team on a back-ender)...Miami lost to the Wiz 11 days ago and are coming off a loss at home vs GS...
Sides:
1) Dal, 2) GS, 3) SA, 4) Chi, 5) Mia, 6) Milw, 7) Memp, 8) NY, 9) Ind, 10) Orl
Totals:
1) Memp un, 2) Milw un, 3) Orl un, 4) GS un, 5) SA un, 6) Chi un, 7) Dal un, 8) NY ov, 9) Mia un, 10) Ind ov
I will pass on plays again and see if I can hit another #1 Side...
Kevin Love is struggling in Minnesota and if Rubio is playing tonight, this will effect their rotations and Dallas is off a bad loss last night so I like Dallas...
Bowl Games...
My general rule of thumb for Bowl games is, "when in doubt, take the Dog and the Over"...
And don't be afraid to sprinkle a moneyline play on some of these dogs...
I forgot this early game started at 1 p.m. but I did play it last night...I probably should post some NCAAF and NFL plays on here from time to time...I don't play many, but I should post these plays...
Should you bet every Dog?...Should you bet every Under?...
No, but there have been years where both or either have cleaned up...To maximize the profits, stay away from the Dogs who finished 5th or 6th or worse in weak conferences if they are up against a team from a better conference...And I really don't consider teams getting 4 points or less a dog because in a Bowl Game on a neutral field, that is not enough points to be a dog, IMO...
And don't be afraid to sprinkle a moneyline play on some of these dogs...
I forgot this early game started at 1 p.m. but I did play it last night...I probably should post some NCAAF and NFL plays on here from time to time...I don't play many, but I should post these plays...
Should you bet every Dog?...Should you bet every Under?...
No, but there have been years where both or either have cleaned up...To maximize the profits, stay away from the Dogs who finished 5th or 6th or worse in weak conferences if they are up against a team from a better conference...And I really don't consider teams getting 4 points or less a dog because in a Bowl Game on a neutral field, that is not enough points to be a dog, IMO...
Friday, December 14, 2012
Friday totals...
Totals:
1) GS un, 2) Was ov, 3) Den un, 4) Sac ov, 5) Bos ov, 6) Cle ov, 7) Phoe un, 8) Phi un, 9) Tor un, 10) Bkn un, 11) Min un
1) GS un, 2) Was ov, 3) Den un, 4) Sac ov, 5) Bos ov, 6) Cle ov, 7) Phoe un, 8) Phi un, 9) Tor un, 10) Bkn un, 11) Min un
Friday Sides...
No bets until I win a #1 Sides pick, then I'll start making some plays again...Losing 13 plays by 1/2 a point or 1 point in the last 17 days is a little tough to take and I had bk-2-bk #1 side plays lose by half-a-point mid-week...
Sides:
1) Phoe, 2) Bkn, 3) Sac, 4) Bos, 5) den, 6) Cle, 7) GS, 8) Tor, 9) Phi, 10) Was, 11) NO
Sides:
1) Phoe, 2) Bkn, 3) Sac, 4) Bos, 5) den, 6) Cle, 7) GS, 8) Tor, 9) Phi, 10) Was, 11) NO
Thursday, December 13, 2012
Thursday rankings...
Sides:
1) Char, 2) SA, 3) LAL
Totals:
1) SA ov, 2) LAL un, 3) Char ov
I may pass on bets as I am beyond frustrated right now as I have my 13th loss by 1/2 a point or 1 point or 1.5 points in the last 17 days (including 2H bets, which I usually don't post)...I like to think that these are going to even out this season and have said this 2 or 3 times now, but they keep happening as I had yet another last night on Brooklyn after having yet another the night before with the Knicks...Getting a bit unreal...I'm accepting the idea that it is NOT going to even out this season...
I am overdue for a good night on all picks, so since most of these picks tonight were "take this side as it is the only side to play" kind of picks, I feel this might be a good night, but who knows as there may be another 1/2-point loss or 2 in the works...
Notes:
Spurs are 4-0-1 ATS and 4-1 to the Over in back-enders this season...Atlanta has one win all season by more than 10 points (and that was 11 over the Clips)...The Hawks just don't have the type of team that is going to blow anyone out...I don't know why I keep picking the Lakers because they STINK, but I feel compelled to take them tonight after Kobe called everyone out after yet another embarrassing loss at Cleveland...And if the Lakers are going to win or cover, it'll have to be an Under because the Lake-Show are going to have to win games on the defensive end because other than Kobe, they simply don't have enough weapons on offense to out-gun teams...
Wednesday, December 12, 2012
Wed Totals...
1) Bkn un, 2) Atl un, 3) Den ov, 4) OKC ov, 5) Was ov, 6) Bos ov, 7) LAC un, 8) SA ov, 9) Phoe un, 10) Milw un, 11) Cle ov, 12) Phi un, 13) Mia un
No time for bets today, but I will stalk for 2H plays..
No time for bets today, but I will stalk for 2H plays..
Wednesday Sides...
Super-busy day at work, may not have time to post anything today, we'll see if I can get a few free minutes as I am looking at the Board now...
Ok, have Sides done, I'll try and get totals next...
1) Bkn, 2) Phoe, 3) Cle, 4) OKC, 5) Den, 6) Was, 7) Bos, 8) LAC, 9) Mia, 10) Phi, 11) Atl, 12) SA, 13) Milw
Ok, have Sides done, I'll try and get totals next...
1) Bkn, 2) Phoe, 3) Cle, 4) OKC, 5) Den, 6) Was, 7) Bos, 8) LAC, 9) Mia, 10) Phi, 11) Atl, 12) SA, 13) Milw
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Tuesday rankings and plays...
Sides:
1) NY, 2) Den, 3) LAL, 4) Was, 5) LAC
Totals:
1) Was ov, 2) NY un, 3) Den ov, 4) LAC un, 5) LAL ov
Plays:
I hate playing Road FAVs and I hate laying the points in these 3 games, but I am playing the situational spots over the lines in these games:
New York Knicks -3.5, laying $100 to win $100 -- Big revenge spot for the Knicks here after losing in OT at Brooklyn 2 weeks ago and the Knicks are amped for this re-match...Brooklyn struggling mightily without Lopez as they have lost 4 straight and it's still a chart-play to fade them...
Denver Nuggets -5, laying $104 to win $100 -- Denver in another bounce-back spot trying to get back to .500 and DET playing their 4th game in 5 nights, this one at Home, which is often a spot to fade and I will do just that...
LA Lakers -6, laying $105 to win $100 -- Not crazy about this line at all...Lakers are terrible right now...Cleveland gets Irving back tonight and that creates a situational spot where "you fade the team wehere a star player returns to the line-up after a prolonged injury"...I'll take the situational spot and take the Lakers off yet another embarrassing loss...Getting on the Road might help LAL right now...
GL...
1) NY, 2) Den, 3) LAL, 4) Was, 5) LAC
Totals:
1) Was ov, 2) NY un, 3) Den ov, 4) LAC un, 5) LAL ov
Plays:
I hate playing Road FAVs and I hate laying the points in these 3 games, but I am playing the situational spots over the lines in these games:
New York Knicks -3.5, laying $100 to win $100 -- Big revenge spot for the Knicks here after losing in OT at Brooklyn 2 weeks ago and the Knicks are amped for this re-match...Brooklyn struggling mightily without Lopez as they have lost 4 straight and it's still a chart-play to fade them...
Denver Nuggets -5, laying $104 to win $100 -- Denver in another bounce-back spot trying to get back to .500 and DET playing their 4th game in 5 nights, this one at Home, which is often a spot to fade and I will do just that...
LA Lakers -6, laying $105 to win $100 -- Not crazy about this line at all...Lakers are terrible right now...Cleveland gets Irving back tonight and that creates a situational spot where "you fade the team wehere a star player returns to the line-up after a prolonged injury"...I'll take the situational spot and take the Lakers off yet another embarrassing loss...Getting on the Road might help LAL right now...
GL...
Monday, December 10, 2012
Monday rankings...
Sides:
1) Tor, 2) Char, 3) Det, 4) Mia, 5) Dal, 6) Hou
Totals:
1) Tor un, 2) Char ov, 3) Det ov, 4) Hou ov, 5) Dal ov, 6) Mia un
After going 13-8-1 on SAT and 15-5 on SAT with all picks, I slipped to 5-7 yesterday...I like my totals tonight...If Wes Matthews doesn't play tonight, then I really love this Under in PORT because Batum is already doubtful, too...Hickson is banged up, but probable for the Blazers, who have no bench whatsoever...Sacramento killed this team in the 2H on SAT after Batum left...And they killed them with Tereke Evans out...This Blazers team just is not deep at all and their bench struggles to keep them in games...Their starters usually log heavy minutes and now you have 2 starters doubtful and and another dinged up a little but probable...Just don't know where the points are going to come from...And sure, teams usually rise up to win when they have injuries the first game when guys are out, but those teams usually have better benches than this team...I think Toronto wins this game...
Not sure what I am betting yet, as I would want to see who is starting for PORT before I bet this game, but I am at work tonight and won't be able to see who is starting as I won't be home quite in time to put the pre-game show and check out who is in the lineup...So I may just stalk for 2H plays tonight, we'll see...
1) Tor, 2) Char, 3) Det, 4) Mia, 5) Dal, 6) Hou
Totals:
1) Tor un, 2) Char ov, 3) Det ov, 4) Hou ov, 5) Dal ov, 6) Mia un
After going 13-8-1 on SAT and 15-5 on SAT with all picks, I slipped to 5-7 yesterday...I like my totals tonight...If Wes Matthews doesn't play tonight, then I really love this Under in PORT because Batum is already doubtful, too...Hickson is banged up, but probable for the Blazers, who have no bench whatsoever...Sacramento killed this team in the 2H on SAT after Batum left...And they killed them with Tereke Evans out...This Blazers team just is not deep at all and their bench struggles to keep them in games...Their starters usually log heavy minutes and now you have 2 starters doubtful and and another dinged up a little but probable...Just don't know where the points are going to come from...And sure, teams usually rise up to win when they have injuries the first game when guys are out, but those teams usually have better benches than this team...I think Toronto wins this game...
Not sure what I am betting yet, as I would want to see who is starting for PORT before I bet this game, but I am at work tonight and won't be able to see who is starting as I won't be home quite in time to put the pre-game show and check out who is in the lineup...So I may just stalk for 2H plays tonight, we'll see...
Sunday, December 9, 2012
Sunday rankings and plays...
Sides:
1) Den, 2) Ind, 3) Utah, 4) Milw, 5) Tor, 6) Phoe
Totals:
1) Tor ov, 2) Utah ov, 3) Den ov, 4) Milw ov, 5) Phoe un, 6) Ind un
I am shunning the afternoon Under trend a second day in a row, but won't bet that one...
I am taking Denver +5 and Indy +10...Chart-plays for both...Knicks 4th game in 5 nights, too, at MSG...OKC just had a C6 snapped at Home vs. the Lakers...Indy's defense will be tested tonight for sure, but I think they can give OKC a game...
GL...
1) Den, 2) Ind, 3) Utah, 4) Milw, 5) Tor, 6) Phoe
Totals:
1) Tor ov, 2) Utah ov, 3) Den ov, 4) Milw ov, 5) Phoe un, 6) Ind un
I am shunning the afternoon Under trend a second day in a row, but won't bet that one...
I am taking Denver +5 and Indy +10...Chart-plays for both...Knicks 4th game in 5 nights, too, at MSG...OKC just had a C6 snapped at Home vs. the Lakers...Indy's defense will be tested tonight for sure, but I think they can give OKC a game...
GL...
Saturday, December 8, 2012
Saturday rankings...
Sides:
1) Sac, 2) NY, 3) Bos, 4) Was, 5) LAC, 6) Dal, 7) Atl, 8) NO, 9) SA, 10) Det
Totals:
1) Was ov, 2) SA ov, 3) NY un, 4) Sac un, 5) LAC ov, 6) NO ov, 7) Det ov, 8) Bos ov, 9) Atl ov, 10) Dal un
Don't like many totals at all for the night games, but I kind of like my top 4 sides...
No plays for the night games as I will stalk for possible 2H plays...
1) Sac, 2) NY, 3) Bos, 4) Was, 5) LAC, 6) Dal, 7) Atl, 8) NO, 9) SA, 10) Det
Totals:
1) Was ov, 2) SA ov, 3) NY un, 4) Sac un, 5) LAC ov, 6) NO ov, 7) Det ov, 8) Bos ov, 9) Atl ov, 10) Dal un
Don't like many totals at all for the night games, but I kind of like my top 4 sides...
No plays for the night games as I will stalk for possible 2H plays...
Saturday look...
I am just starting to look at the board now and like the Clips and the Over, despite knowing that there is an automatic play on the Under here (because of the early afternoon game) but the Clips are starting to score some points...5 Overs and a push the last 6 and I mentioned earlier in the week that the Clips are about to get rolling...
Be back with rankings soon...
Be back with rankings soon...
Friday, December 7, 2012
Friday rankings & plays...
2 plays:
I am going to take the Denver Nuggets moneyline as they have lost 4 of 5 and are too good a team to keep losing like this and they are fighting yet again to reach .500 tonight which is always a good motivational factor...Indy has won 4 of 5, but CHI was the only team currently with a winning record they have beaten during this stretch and the Bulls are 9-8...
I am also going to take a shot with the HOU/SA Over the 212 and I already talked about this game down below in my write-up as I edited these 2 plays in here up top at 5:23 p.m. EST...
GL...
Sides:
1) Den, 2) SA, 3) Char, 4) Tor, 5) NO, 6) Was, 7) Sac, 8) LAL, 9) Cle, 10) GS, 11) Det, 12) Phi
Totals:
1) SA ov, 2) Det un, 3) Char ov, 4) Sac un, 5) NO un, 6) LAL ov, 7) Tor ov, 8) Was ov, 9) Den ov, 10) GS un, 11) Phi ov, 12) Cle un
Not crazy about too many sides tonight, but am thinking about a play on DEN despite a chart-play to fade them here...I do like my top 8 totals though...
Rockets/Spurs reminds me of the Lakers/Rockets match-up from Tuesday of this week as we had the top 2 teams in the league in PACE on Tuesday facing off and tonight HOU is still #1 and the Spurs are #5 in PACE...The Houston starters were the reason that game stayed Under by half-a-point or 2 1/2 points on the closing line as the Rockets starters shot 30% for the game and Harden going 3-for-19 didn't help and both teams shot poorly from the charity stripe...I expect the HOU starters to shoot better tonight which should get this Over...
The Bulls have 7 straight Unders and Detroit had 4 straight Unders before a fluky 2H against GS last time out got an Over from what looked like a cakewalk Under at the half...
I am going to take the Denver Nuggets moneyline as they have lost 4 of 5 and are too good a team to keep losing like this and they are fighting yet again to reach .500 tonight which is always a good motivational factor...Indy has won 4 of 5, but CHI was the only team currently with a winning record they have beaten during this stretch and the Bulls are 9-8...
I am also going to take a shot with the HOU/SA Over the 212 and I already talked about this game down below in my write-up as I edited these 2 plays in here up top at 5:23 p.m. EST...
GL...
Sides:
1) Den, 2) SA, 3) Char, 4) Tor, 5) NO, 6) Was, 7) Sac, 8) LAL, 9) Cle, 10) GS, 11) Det, 12) Phi
Totals:
1) SA ov, 2) Det un, 3) Char ov, 4) Sac un, 5) NO un, 6) LAL ov, 7) Tor ov, 8) Was ov, 9) Den ov, 10) GS un, 11) Phi ov, 12) Cle un
Not crazy about too many sides tonight, but am thinking about a play on DEN despite a chart-play to fade them here...I do like my top 8 totals though...
Rockets/Spurs reminds me of the Lakers/Rockets match-up from Tuesday of this week as we had the top 2 teams in the league in PACE on Tuesday facing off and tonight HOU is still #1 and the Spurs are #5 in PACE...The Houston starters were the reason that game stayed Under by half-a-point or 2 1/2 points on the closing line as the Rockets starters shot 30% for the game and Harden going 3-for-19 didn't help and both teams shot poorly from the charity stripe...I expect the HOU starters to shoot better tonight which should get this Over...
The Bulls have 7 straight Unders and Detroit had 4 straight Unders before a fluky 2H against GS last time out got an Over from what looked like a cakewalk Under at the half...
Thursday, December 6, 2012
Thursday rankings...
Sides:
1) Mia, 2) Phoe
Totals:
1) Mia ov, 2) Phoe un
I am betting the NY/Mia game Over in the 1st Half tonight (102.5 to 103, depending on your Book, I took the 103)...Miami just not going Over much at all in the 1Q and both of these teams are scoring and giving up more points in the 2Q than the 1Q, so I have to go Over in the 1H, and ignore the 1Q Over, figuring that if the 1Q goes Over, then that increases the odds of the 1H going Over anyway...
GL...
1) Mia, 2) Phoe
Totals:
1) Mia ov, 2) Phoe un
I am betting the NY/Mia game Over in the 1st Half tonight (102.5 to 103, depending on your Book, I took the 103)...Miami just not going Over much at all in the 1Q and both of these teams are scoring and giving up more points in the 2Q than the 1Q, so I have to go Over in the 1H, and ignore the 1Q Over, figuring that if the 1Q goes Over, then that increases the odds of the 1H going Over anyway...
GL...
Wednesday, December 5, 2012
WED Totals rankings...
Totals:
1) Orl un, 2) Char ov, 3) Milw un, 4) GS un, 5) LAC ov, 6) Atl ov, 7) Min ov, 8) NO un, 9) Tor ov, 10) Chi ov, 11) Port ov
1) Orl un, 2) Char ov, 3) Milw un, 4) GS un, 5) LAC ov, 6) Atl ov, 7) Min ov, 8) NO un, 9) Tor ov, 10) Chi ov, 11) Port ov
Wednesday rankings...
Super-busy at work, probably no bets, will look at 2H plays...
Just finished looking at sides (Minny still a chart-play), and am looking at Totals now...
Sides:
1) Min, 2) Atl, 3) Chi, 4) Tor, 5) Orl, 6) LAC, 7) NO, 8) GS, 9) Port, 10) Milw, 11) Char
Just finished looking at sides (Minny still a chart-play), and am looking at Totals now...
Sides:
1) Min, 2) Atl, 3) Chi, 4) Tor, 5) Orl, 6) LAC, 7) NO, 8) GS, 9) Port, 10) Milw, 11) Char
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
Tuesday rankings...
Tuesday play below, although I do like this OKC/Bkn Under, too...
Sides:
1) OKC, 2) Min, 3) Chi, 4) Phoe, 5) Mia, 6) LAL
Totals:
1) LAL ov, 2) OKC un, 3) Chi un, 4) Phoe un, 5) Mia ov, 6) Min un
Sides:
1) OKC, 2) Min, 3) Chi, 4) Phoe, 5) Mia, 6) LAL
Totals:
1) LAL ov, 2) OKC un, 3) Chi un, 4) Phoe un, 5) Mia ov, 6) Min un
Tuesday play...
Ok, Clips let Utah shoot a 3 with 0.7 seconds left and Foye hits it for a loss in the final second, fourth loss for me in the last 9 days on the last possession, 3 of those in the final 5 seconds...Like I said, I hope these even out...I am looking at the Board now, but one game jumped out, had to play it immediately...
LA Lakers/Houston Over 212.5, laying $104 to win $100 -- Was 214.5 last night, but is coming down due to Pau Gasol being OUT tonight, but to me, the total should be going in the opposite direction with Gasol being Out...Why?...Because he has playing injured with tendonitis in both knees and he has been slowing the Lakers down, because they need to get into half-court sets just to get Pau the ball in positions on the floor where he can score...Antawn Jamison will undoubtedly take his spot, and he can run and will jack up 3's and drive to the hole...Kobe was quoted as saying to Gasol recently. "It's time to get your big boy pants on" which means the Lakers are ready to step up the Pace even more now that Coach D'Antoni has had his hands on this team for a few weeks...And the Lakers are already #2 in the league in PACE...Guess who is #1?...You got it, Houston...So we have the top 2 teams in the league in PACE, we have Houston getting Parsons and Delfino back last game (which means more offense) and they have put up totals of 234, 218, 218 and 240 in their last 4 games and the Rockets and Lakers put up a 227 at Staples 2 1/2 weeks ago and they put up 128 in the 1st half and 69 in the 1Q of that game...So yes, I am also putting small bets on the 1Q and 1H Over, too...If both these teams shoot around 40%, then ok, we are screwed here unless they can combine to get to the FT line for about 70 attempts (and hopefully Dwight Howard can at least hit 60% tonight) in which case, it might sneak over...But Pau being out hurts the Lakers defensively so I don't see any reason that both teams cannot shoot at least 45%, which should be enough to get this one Over and anything higher would just be gravy...Neither team got to the FT that much and both teams shot poorly from the charity stripe in their last head-to-head match-up, so any decrease in FG% from their last game can hopefully be compensated with with more FT attempts and makes which should get us the Over here...And one last thing: The Lakers had an embarrassing loss to Indiana at Home a week ago and followed that up by running and gunning vs. Denver and they got an easy win and that game hit 225 points...LAL followed that up with another embarrassing loss to Orlando last time out...Yet a 216 was still put up...So I expect LAL to come out running and gunning again and HOU will welcome that...Bottom line here is that this game WILL BE an Over PACE...there will be more than enough shots taken and enough FTs taken for this to be an Over...Now if it is brick-city, then it stays Under...But I expect 180 shots taken between these 2 teams tonight and if there are a lot of fouls in this game, keeping the shots around 170, then the FT attempts will go up dramatically...
GL...
LA Lakers/Houston Over 212.5, laying $104 to win $100 -- Was 214.5 last night, but is coming down due to Pau Gasol being OUT tonight, but to me, the total should be going in the opposite direction with Gasol being Out...Why?...Because he has playing injured with tendonitis in both knees and he has been slowing the Lakers down, because they need to get into half-court sets just to get Pau the ball in positions on the floor where he can score...Antawn Jamison will undoubtedly take his spot, and he can run and will jack up 3's and drive to the hole...Kobe was quoted as saying to Gasol recently. "It's time to get your big boy pants on" which means the Lakers are ready to step up the Pace even more now that Coach D'Antoni has had his hands on this team for a few weeks...And the Lakers are already #2 in the league in PACE...Guess who is #1?...You got it, Houston...So we have the top 2 teams in the league in PACE, we have Houston getting Parsons and Delfino back last game (which means more offense) and they have put up totals of 234, 218, 218 and 240 in their last 4 games and the Rockets and Lakers put up a 227 at Staples 2 1/2 weeks ago and they put up 128 in the 1st half and 69 in the 1Q of that game...So yes, I am also putting small bets on the 1Q and 1H Over, too...If both these teams shoot around 40%, then ok, we are screwed here unless they can combine to get to the FT line for about 70 attempts (and hopefully Dwight Howard can at least hit 60% tonight) in which case, it might sneak over...But Pau being out hurts the Lakers defensively so I don't see any reason that both teams cannot shoot at least 45%, which should be enough to get this one Over and anything higher would just be gravy...Neither team got to the FT that much and both teams shot poorly from the charity stripe in their last head-to-head match-up, so any decrease in FG% from their last game can hopefully be compensated with with more FT attempts and makes which should get us the Over here...And one last thing: The Lakers had an embarrassing loss to Indiana at Home a week ago and followed that up by running and gunning vs. Denver and they got an easy win and that game hit 225 points...LAL followed that up with another embarrassing loss to Orlando last time out...Yet a 216 was still put up...So I expect LAL to come out running and gunning again and HOU will welcome that...Bottom line here is that this game WILL BE an Over PACE...there will be more than enough shots taken and enough FTs taken for this to be an Over...Now if it is brick-city, then it stays Under...But I expect 180 shots taken between these 2 teams tonight and if there are a lot of fouls in this game, keeping the shots around 170, then the FT attempts will go up dramatically...
GL...
Monday, December 3, 2012
Monday rankings and play...
Sides:
1) LAC, 2) GS, 3) Tor, 4) Det, 5) Char, 6) NO
Totals:
1) Det ov, 2) NO un, 3) LAC un, 4) GS ov, 5) Tor ov, 6) Char un
I am taking the Clips...Considering GS, but man, what a huge number there...GS hasn't been more than a 5-point FAV over anyone all season and now they are 9.5 chalk to a team that just spanked the Lakers at Staples last night, which to me, means there is only one side to play here -- GS...
Los Angeles Clippers -2, laying $103 to win $100 -- A chart-play for the Clips here...And trust me, I realize that a chart-play is not the be all, end all trend to take a play, but it certainly is a guide for me and this is a fairly strong chart-play, too...Main factors for me: The Clips have Chauncey Billups back for a few games now and he is adjusting to his rotational minutes and the Clips seem to be breaking out of their funk now after this blowout win over SAC...Now I realize this was a bad spot for Sac-Town as they were on a back-ender, but the Clips buried them...They got by Minny the game before and Minny had pretty much the same spot as the Kings had...The Clips had lost 4 straight before the Minny game...Since I watch a lot of Clippers, Lakers and Golden State games on the NBA package due to the time that I get home from work, I feel a certain familiarity with these teams...When the Clips lost 2 in a row early on in the 1st week of the season, they then stepped up and crushed the Spurs at Staples, and went to PORT the following night and crushed PORT...They kept the momentum going, beating ATL, MIA & CHI at Home and then they beat the Spurs again at SA...They lost to OKC at OKC in OT, then sputtered, losing 2 more in a row on the Road and then a Home game to the Hornets, before eeking by Minny and then destroying Sac-Town...I think the Clips are about to get on a roll, so do NOT let their Road record fool you and don't let Utah's 6-0 Home record fool you too much...The Jazz are certainly tough at Home, but they have caught teams in favorable spots for most of those home games...They are not catching the Clips in a favorable spot here, and in fact, the Jazz are returning Home from a 3-game roadie...The Clips win this one, so obviously I am not afraid to lay 2 points...
GL...
1) LAC, 2) GS, 3) Tor, 4) Det, 5) Char, 6) NO
Totals:
1) Det ov, 2) NO un, 3) LAC un, 4) GS ov, 5) Tor ov, 6) Char un
I am taking the Clips...Considering GS, but man, what a huge number there...GS hasn't been more than a 5-point FAV over anyone all season and now they are 9.5 chalk to a team that just spanked the Lakers at Staples last night, which to me, means there is only one side to play here -- GS...
Los Angeles Clippers -2, laying $103 to win $100 -- A chart-play for the Clips here...And trust me, I realize that a chart-play is not the be all, end all trend to take a play, but it certainly is a guide for me and this is a fairly strong chart-play, too...Main factors for me: The Clips have Chauncey Billups back for a few games now and he is adjusting to his rotational minutes and the Clips seem to be breaking out of their funk now after this blowout win over SAC...Now I realize this was a bad spot for Sac-Town as they were on a back-ender, but the Clips buried them...They got by Minny the game before and Minny had pretty much the same spot as the Kings had...The Clips had lost 4 straight before the Minny game...Since I watch a lot of Clippers, Lakers and Golden State games on the NBA package due to the time that I get home from work, I feel a certain familiarity with these teams...When the Clips lost 2 in a row early on in the 1st week of the season, they then stepped up and crushed the Spurs at Staples, and went to PORT the following night and crushed PORT...They kept the momentum going, beating ATL, MIA & CHI at Home and then they beat the Spurs again at SA...They lost to OKC at OKC in OT, then sputtered, losing 2 more in a row on the Road and then a Home game to the Hornets, before eeking by Minny and then destroying Sac-Town...I think the Clips are about to get on a roll, so do NOT let their Road record fool you and don't let Utah's 6-0 Home record fool you too much...The Jazz are certainly tough at Home, but they have caught teams in favorable spots for most of those home games...They are not catching the Clips in a favorable spot here, and in fact, the Jazz are returning Home from a 3-game roadie...The Clips win this one, so obviously I am not afraid to lay 2 points...
GL...
Sunday, December 2, 2012
Sunday rankings...
Sides:
1) LAL, 2) Phoe
Totals:
1) LAL ov, 2) Phoe un
Automatic play on the afternoon game Under at MSG, but I am not taking it as the Knicks flew over last Sunday against Detroit, so I have a feeling this game could fly Over, too, so I am laying off it...
The Lake-Show came out with a lot of piss and vinegar against the Nuggets the last time out and I expect more of the same tonight from them...I like the Over more than than the side as I hate giving 13 in the NBA, but the Lakers can win this by whatever margin they want to...Just afraid of the back-door, so I think I will lay off bets today and see if there is a 2H bet available...
1) LAL, 2) Phoe
Totals:
1) LAL ov, 2) Phoe un
Automatic play on the afternoon game Under at MSG, but I am not taking it as the Knicks flew over last Sunday against Detroit, so I have a feeling this game could fly Over, too, so I am laying off it...
The Lake-Show came out with a lot of piss and vinegar against the Nuggets the last time out and I expect more of the same tonight from them...I like the Over more than than the side as I hate giving 13 in the NBA, but the Lakers can win this by whatever margin they want to...Just afraid of the back-door, so I think I will lay off bets today and see if there is a 2H bet available...
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Saturday Rankings...
Sides:
1) Milw, 2) Det, 3) Memp, 4) Chi, 5), 6) Mia, 7) Sac, 8) NO, 9) Cle, 10) GS
Totals:
1) Hou ov, 2) Milw un, 3) Chi un, 4) Cle ov, 5) Mia ov, 6) Sac ov, 7) GS un, 8) Memp un, 9) NO un, 10) Det ov
Debating on whether to take a few days off from bets, although I will cap the Board daily...3 tough losses this week as a meaningless 3 with less than 5 seconds left by Memp as both teams had given up and then Mike Conley shoots a trey with nobody guarding him only because the shot clock was about to run out and he swished it for a tough loss...Also had a 1/2 point loss on a Ray Allen missed FT with 2.6 seconds left on a 2H play and a missed layup by Kevin Love on the last possession of the game for another tough loss...I know they'll even out over the next 19 1/2 weeks of the regular season (at least, I hope they do) and I am still 9-7 my last 16, but I may take a break for a few days...
Have an hour to decide on a play on Milwaukee as BOS rose up to easily beat Portland last night but now face a Bucks' team in need of a win and BOS doesn't have Rondo again, so I like this spot for MILW...Also like this HOU over as the Rockets get some offensive weapons back tonight...Those are the 2 I will probably play...
1) Milw, 2) Det, 3) Memp, 4) Chi, 5), 6) Mia, 7) Sac, 8) NO, 9) Cle, 10) GS
Totals:
1) Hou ov, 2) Milw un, 3) Chi un, 4) Cle ov, 5) Mia ov, 6) Sac ov, 7) GS un, 8) Memp un, 9) NO un, 10) Det ov
Debating on whether to take a few days off from bets, although I will cap the Board daily...3 tough losses this week as a meaningless 3 with less than 5 seconds left by Memp as both teams had given up and then Mike Conley shoots a trey with nobody guarding him only because the shot clock was about to run out and he swished it for a tough loss...Also had a 1/2 point loss on a Ray Allen missed FT with 2.6 seconds left on a 2H play and a missed layup by Kevin Love on the last possession of the game for another tough loss...I know they'll even out over the next 19 1/2 weeks of the regular season (at least, I hope they do) and I am still 9-7 my last 16, but I may take a break for a few days...
Have an hour to decide on a play on Milwaukee as BOS rose up to easily beat Portland last night but now face a Bucks' team in need of a win and BOS doesn't have Rondo again, so I like this spot for MILW...Also like this HOU over as the Rockets get some offensive weapons back tonight...Those are the 2 I will probably play...
SAT update...
Busy day...Capping the Board now...Should have Rankings in 25 minutes...
2-6 last 8 plays after a 7-1 (8-0 for most followers), so 9-7 last 16, but hoping to end this week on a good note...
2-6 last 8 plays after a 7-1 (8-0 for most followers), so 9-7 last 16, but hoping to end this week on a good note...
Friday, November 30, 2012
Friday play...
Detroit Pistons +10, laying $100 to win $101 -- I am going to take the team playing significantly better their last 8 games compared to their first 8 and I already talked about the look-ahead spot for Memphis as they play the Spurs tomorrow...2 scenarios likely here which is why I bet it and that is that the pistons stay with them from start to finish and then Memphis comes up clutch down the stretch and wins by 5 or 6, or Detroit hangs around for a while, Memphis pulls ahead by about 15 or 16, pulls their starters to rest them a little bit longer than normal with the Spurs' game tomorrow and Detroit works their way back to back-door the number...Of course, Memphis could just murder them from start to finish, but I'll take the points here in this spot just about every time...
GL...
GL...
Friday rankings...
Sides:
1) Det, 2) Den, 3) Utah, 4) Min, 5) Sac, 6) Cle, 7) Char, 8) Phoe, 9) Was, 10) Orl, 11) Bos
Totals:
1) Bos un, 2) Phoe un, 3) Sac un, 4) Was ov, 5) Orl un, 6) Det un, 7) Den ov, 8) Min ov, 9) Cle un, 10) Char un, 11) Utah un
Not sure if I will bet anything tonight, but if do it will be my top 2 Sides...I have another 90 minutes to decide...
As much as I liked all 11 sides on WED, I don't like nearly as many tonight...Top 5, maybe 6, I like and not much after that...
The Denver/LA Lakers game has 3 fairly strong trends clashing here...2 against Denver and 1 against LAL and then you throw in the fact that DEN is 4-0 ATS on the back-end of back-to-backs, now it is 2 for and 2 against and I probably should just lay off the game, but I almost want to take a stab at Denver due to all of the problems the Lakers are having to start this season...
Rondo being out the reason I like the Under in Boston, but I am not playing any totals tonight...
If I play Detroit, I will post it in the next hour...Look-ahead game for Memphis as they have SA tomorrow and Detroit, after an 0-8 start, has actually gone 5-3 their last 8 including an 18-point win in Philly, a 20-point win vs. Boston, and a 40-point win last time out vs. Phoenix...They are playing much better, although this is an obviously a step-up in class here...However, they have played OKC twice this season and covered both games against them...
1) Det, 2) Den, 3) Utah, 4) Min, 5) Sac, 6) Cle, 7) Char, 8) Phoe, 9) Was, 10) Orl, 11) Bos
Totals:
1) Bos un, 2) Phoe un, 3) Sac un, 4) Was ov, 5) Orl un, 6) Det un, 7) Den ov, 8) Min ov, 9) Cle un, 10) Char un, 11) Utah un
Not sure if I will bet anything tonight, but if do it will be my top 2 Sides...I have another 90 minutes to decide...
As much as I liked all 11 sides on WED, I don't like nearly as many tonight...Top 5, maybe 6, I like and not much after that...
The Denver/LA Lakers game has 3 fairly strong trends clashing here...2 against Denver and 1 against LAL and then you throw in the fact that DEN is 4-0 ATS on the back-end of back-to-backs, now it is 2 for and 2 against and I probably should just lay off the game, but I almost want to take a stab at Denver due to all of the problems the Lakers are having to start this season...
Rondo being out the reason I like the Under in Boston, but I am not playing any totals tonight...
If I play Detroit, I will post it in the next hour...Look-ahead game for Memphis as they have SA tomorrow and Detroit, after an 0-8 start, has actually gone 5-3 their last 8 including an 18-point win in Philly, a 20-point win vs. Boston, and a 40-point win last time out vs. Phoenix...They are playing much better, although this is an obviously a step-up in class here...However, they have played OKC twice this season and covered both games against them...
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Thursday rankings...
Sides:
1) Mia, 2) GS
Total:
1) Mia ov, 2) GS un
Already mentioned that when Popovich sat their "Big 3" on a back-ender in PORT last season in FEB, the Spurs lost by 40, by a 137-97 count...Miami can name their score here tonight as this may look like a Preseason game at some point if the Heat get up by 20 to 25 and pull their starters...
Denver and GS already playing for the 3rd time this season and we have a short revenge spot here as the Nuggets just beat the Warriors 6 days ago at Denver...DEN also beat GS in double-OT at GS 2 weeks before that, a game that GS had in the bag multiple times late in regulation and late in the 1st OT, but missed FTs and turnovers cost them in that one...
Both games were easy Unders in regulation time, but obviously, with the 2 OTs at GS, the game did get Over the game total during the 2nd OT in that one...
DEN has covered 5 straight and 10 of 13, but I like GS with 4 days rest and double-revenge...
1) Mia, 2) GS
Total:
1) Mia ov, 2) GS un
Already mentioned that when Popovich sat their "Big 3" on a back-ender in PORT last season in FEB, the Spurs lost by 40, by a 137-97 count...Miami can name their score here tonight as this may look like a Preseason game at some point if the Heat get up by 20 to 25 and pull their starters...
Denver and GS already playing for the 3rd time this season and we have a short revenge spot here as the Nuggets just beat the Warriors 6 days ago at Denver...DEN also beat GS in double-OT at GS 2 weeks before that, a game that GS had in the bag multiple times late in regulation and late in the 1st OT, but missed FTs and turnovers cost them in that one...
Both games were easy Unders in regulation time, but obviously, with the 2 OTs at GS, the game did get Over the game total during the 2nd OT in that one...
DEN has covered 5 straight and 10 of 13, but I like GS with 4 days rest and double-revenge...
Thursday play...
Miami Heat -13, laying $200 to win $210 -- First 2-unit play of the year...This Spurs' team is not only without Parker, Duncan & Ginobili, but Jackson & Leonard have been out for about a week...And remember last season, Popovich sat these 3 on 2/21 on a back-ender at Portland after beating Utah the night before and it was a 3rd-game in 4 nights situation...The Blazers beat them 137-97...I already talked about how rested Miami is for this one...The Heat should accidentally win this one by 20...
GL...
GL...
Popovich at it again...
I liked Miami a lot today as this was a tough situational
spot for the Spurs (more on that later) and the line was 5.5 all day...As I was
getting ready to bet it, the game goes off the Board and I look around and find
out why:
Duncan, Parker and Ginobili are not playing tonight...
Man I wish I would have bet it as I'd be laughing at -5.5
or -6 after the line just jumped to 12 and is still going up...It'll hit 13 for
sure...
Now why are they sitting?...
My take:
Unless all 3 caught an overnight flu bug at the same
time, I would bet my life that Popovich probably is:
1) resting the "old" guys on the back-end of a
back-to-back
and
2) and MORE IMPORTANTLY --- Pop is also sending a message
to the league schedule-makers that if you are going to put 2 elite teams like
the Spurs and Heat on a Nationally televised game on TNT in prime-time with no
other game in the league going at that time, then hey idiots, maybe you should
level the playing field and make this a little bit more fair because the Spurs
are playing their 4th game in 5 days and Miami has 4 days rest coming into this
game...Not to mention that this is the Spurs 6th road game in 9 days while it
will only be Miami's 3rd game in 12 days and Miami has been Home all this time...
Classic Popovich...
Making a statement to the league that if you aren't going
to be fair with us, then screw you, we ain't going to be fair in return and
we'll just give Miami this game and kill your TNT ratings as this should game
be over with at halftime...Be hard for Miami to even get up for this one now
themselves...
This is a big game for TNT and the league...And Popovich
is basically saying tough crap, it's not a big game for us, we just won the
first 5 games of this road trip and we'll wait and maybe play them at full
strength when they come to San Antonio...
The thing here is this:
Look at the schedule and if the Spurs have a back-to-back
coming up or a 4-in-5 coming up, watch carefully who plays what games, because
Popovich will sit any combination of these 3 players on a back-ender so if you
are already liking the Spurs opponent on the overnight line, go ahead and bet
them and beat Popovich to the punch in case he sits any combination of these 3
guys the rest of the season...
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Wednesday plays...
Played the 3 games I mentioned...
Washington Wizards Pick, laying $100 to win $136...
Charlotte Hornets +9, laying $100 to win $100...
Houston/Oklahoma City Under 209, laying $100 to win $105...
Busy day, no time to type analysis...
GL...
Washington Wizards Pick, laying $100 to win $136...
Charlotte Hornets +9, laying $100 to win $100...
Houston/Oklahoma City Under 209, laying $100 to win $105...
Busy day, no time to type analysis...
GL...
Wednesday Rankings...
Sides:
1) Was, 2) Char, 3) Tor, 4) Min, 5) Det, 6) Hou, 7) Bos, 8) NY, 9) Orl, 10) Utah, 11) Chi
Totals:
1) Hou un, 2) Was ov, 3) Bos un, 4) NY ov, 5) Chi un, 6) Orl ov, 7) Char un, 8) Tor un, 9) Min un, 10) Utah ov, 11) Det un
Busy day...
I like my sides and I like my top 5 or so totals...
Not sure what to bet yet, thinking about Wizards, Bobcats and maybe that Houston under, although I may continue to pass on totals for now...
1) Was, 2) Char, 3) Tor, 4) Min, 5) Det, 6) Hou, 7) Bos, 8) NY, 9) Orl, 10) Utah, 11) Chi
Totals:
1) Hou un, 2) Was ov, 3) Bos un, 4) NY ov, 5) Chi un, 6) Orl ov, 7) Char un, 8) Tor un, 9) Min un, 10) Utah ov, 11) Det un
Busy day...
I like my sides and I like my top 5 or so totals...
Not sure what to bet yet, thinking about Wizards, Bobcats and maybe that Houston under, although I may continue to pass on totals for now...
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Tuesday play...
Sacramento Kings -2, laying $100 to win $113 -- Kings were a 1-point dog a few hours ago and are now favored by 1 (I sold a point to get the positive juice)...I already mentioned 2 chart-plays falling the Kings way on the same game and how Minny is still scrambling a bit to make their rotations work since re-acclimating Love, Pekovic & Barea back into their lineup...Minny will turn it around, but I have to play out the chart-play till the end before I start taking them again...
GL...
GL...
Tuesday rankings...
Sides:
1) Sac, 2) Pho, 3) Tor, 4) Ind, 5) Dal
Totals:
1) Sac ov, 2) Ind un, 3) Pho ov, 4) Tor ov, 5) Dal un
Not sure if I will bet any totals tonight, but I will play Sacramento as this is a double-chart play (one chart-play to play SAC and the other to fade Minny)...I need to finish my database soon so I can back-test how a double-spot like this does historically)...Bottom line is SAC is playing better than they did the first 3 weeks of the season and Minny is still trying to hash out their new rotations since Kevin Love returned to the lineup as they have lost 3 straight since his return, haven't covered any of those games, and have had horrible 2nd halves those 3 games, scoring 36, 40 and 34 points in their last 3 games for stone Unders on the their 2H team total and all 3 overall 2H totals also stayed Under...
Kobe has the flu, so if he is OUT, I like the Under more than taking Indy as the Lakers can maybe rise up for one game without Kobe, but it will be tough when you take his 27 PPG, 5 assists, 5 rebounds and leadership off the floor with Nash already out...
1) Sac, 2) Pho, 3) Tor, 4) Ind, 5) Dal
Totals:
1) Sac ov, 2) Ind un, 3) Pho ov, 4) Tor ov, 5) Dal un
Not sure if I will bet any totals tonight, but I will play Sacramento as this is a double-chart play (one chart-play to play SAC and the other to fade Minny)...I need to finish my database soon so I can back-test how a double-spot like this does historically)...Bottom line is SAC is playing better than they did the first 3 weeks of the season and Minny is still trying to hash out their new rotations since Kevin Love returned to the lineup as they have lost 3 straight since his return, haven't covered any of those games, and have had horrible 2nd halves those 3 games, scoring 36, 40 and 34 points in their last 3 games for stone Unders on the their 2H team total and all 3 overall 2H totals also stayed Under...
Kobe has the flu, so if he is OUT, I like the Under more than taking Indy as the Lakers can maybe rise up for one game without Kobe, but it will be tough when you take his 27 PPG, 5 assists, 5 rebounds and leadership off the floor with Nash already out...
Monday, November 26, 2012
Monday rankings...
Sides:
1) NO, 2) Den, 3) Milw, 4) Was, 5) Bkn, 6) Char, 7) Det, 8) Cle
Totals:
1) Bkn ov, 2) Char ov, 3) Det un, 4) Cle ov, 5) NO ov, 6) Den un, 7) Milw un, 8) Was un
I don't like a lot tonight other than this Knicks Over...The Hornets have a chart-play tonight, but they may be going into a Hornet's nest of a different variety as they play a Clippers team that has lost 3 straight...
1) NO, 2) Den, 3) Milw, 4) Was, 5) Bkn, 6) Char, 7) Det, 8) Cle
Totals:
1) Bkn ov, 2) Char ov, 3) Det un, 4) Cle ov, 5) NO ov, 6) Den un, 7) Milw un, 8) Was un
I don't like a lot tonight other than this Knicks Over...The Hornets have a chart-play tonight, but they may be going into a Hornet's nest of a different variety as they play a Clippers team that has lost 3 straight...
Monday play...
New York/New Jersey Over 194, laying $100 to win $103 -- I thought for a split second about a trend that I have talked about a lot over the years, the trend I made up that "brewers7 was on a side or total one game too early" and thought for maybe a split second about taking the Knicks Under tonight...But I also said to myself last night that with the way the Knicks are laying right now, I have to take any Knicks total less than 200 Over...Brooklyn may and undoubtedly will try and control the pace tonight, but they will get sucked into the Knicks' pace for spells during this game...The Knicks' pace has been insane the last 3 games...Too insane for any total less than 200...If both teams shoot bad and the Nets can somehow force NY into a half-court game, well, hey, ok, this will be an Under and I will lose the bet and we move on to the next play...But I will be on Knicks' Overs until they change their style of play or until Vegas catches up and over-adjusts these NY totals...Right now, Vegas is still in catch-up mode as they have not adjusted quick enough IMO...I will probably sprinkle a smaller 1Q Over in tonight, too...
GL...
GL...
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Sunday rankings and thoughts...
Play already posted below, & that total is moving down, down, down, glad I grabbed it on the overnight...
Sides:
1) Phi, 2) NO, 3) Bos, 4) Tor, 5) Port, 6) NY
Totals:
1) NY un, 2) Port un, 3) Tor un, 4) Phi ov, 5) NO ov, 6) Bos un
First day in a while where I am not crazy about any Sides (which means I'll probably go 3-0 with my top 3 and 5-1 overall)...
I am surprised by the total lack of respect the Hornets are getting...They are 4-1 ATS on the Road with their only loss being in OT when they got 7.5 and lost by 8 (and that line was 8 most of the day, so many people pushed that line)...I don't care who is hurt for them, they have a good coach and that alone will get you at least 5 extra covers a season...Denver is hitting their stride and can mangle them tonight, but you're just not going to see me lay 10 against a team that has played this hard and this well on the Road...Later in the season, if the Hornets slide out of the playoff race and have a tough situational spot against an elite team and are getting double-digits, THEN I may take the FAV, but not now...Doesn't mean the Nuggets can't beat them by 20 though...
I'll be curious to see how these top 3 totals go today...All 6 teams are 19th or worse in the league in FG% allowed currently, which would seemingly point to the Over in all 3 games...
Det is 19th and NY is 20th...
SA 23rd and Tor 25th...
Bkn 26th and Port last at 30th...
And SA, NY, BKN and PORT are all shooting in the top 15 in FG%, so the "afternoon Under" trend will be put to the test today...I still think 2 out of these 3 will probably go Over, but I am contractually obligated by my own Handicapping Bible to pick all 3 Under...I feel the Pistons/Knicks game has the best shot to go Under with the Knicks' recent proclivity to stay Under at MSG in the afternoons and I feel strongly that the embarrassment of the last 2 Knicks' losses (especially on the defensive end) will push this team to actually give an effort on the defensive end and I feel there could be a blowout here, and if that happens and NY can somehow keep this team in the 70s or low 80s, then the Knicks can score 100 to 105 and it will still stay Under...
Sides:
1) Phi, 2) NO, 3) Bos, 4) Tor, 5) Port, 6) NY
Totals:
1) NY un, 2) Port un, 3) Tor un, 4) Phi ov, 5) NO ov, 6) Bos un
First day in a while where I am not crazy about any Sides (which means I'll probably go 3-0 with my top 3 and 5-1 overall)...
I am surprised by the total lack of respect the Hornets are getting...They are 4-1 ATS on the Road with their only loss being in OT when they got 7.5 and lost by 8 (and that line was 8 most of the day, so many people pushed that line)...I don't care who is hurt for them, they have a good coach and that alone will get you at least 5 extra covers a season...Denver is hitting their stride and can mangle them tonight, but you're just not going to see me lay 10 against a team that has played this hard and this well on the Road...Later in the season, if the Hornets slide out of the playoff race and have a tough situational spot against an elite team and are getting double-digits, THEN I may take the FAV, but not now...Doesn't mean the Nuggets can't beat them by 20 though...
I'll be curious to see how these top 3 totals go today...All 6 teams are 19th or worse in the league in FG% allowed currently, which would seemingly point to the Over in all 3 games...
Det is 19th and NY is 20th...
SA 23rd and Tor 25th...
Bkn 26th and Port last at 30th...
And SA, NY, BKN and PORT are all shooting in the top 15 in FG%, so the "afternoon Under" trend will be put to the test today...I still think 2 out of these 3 will probably go Over, but I am contractually obligated by my own Handicapping Bible to pick all 3 Under...I feel the Pistons/Knicks game has the best shot to go Under with the Knicks' recent proclivity to stay Under at MSG in the afternoons and I feel strongly that the embarrassment of the last 2 Knicks' losses (especially on the defensive end) will push this team to actually give an effort on the defensive end and I feel there could be a blowout here, and if that happens and NY can somehow keep this team in the 70s or low 80s, then the Knicks can score 100 to 105 and it will still stay Under...
Sunday play...
I have 3 automatic plays today, but I am a little skeptical about how these 3 will do...May be a 1-2 day...These afternoon Unders are 6-1 so far this season and were 3-0 last Sunday, BUT the Overs are 23-10-1 the last 34 games this week as there has been a rise in scoring (and OT games, for that matter) lately...
I am going to pick the 1:05 game that is most likely to go Over (hope I am not wrong), and then I will look at the 3:05 game as I'll have 3 quarters and some change in the books on the early games...
Detroit/New York Under 192, laying $109 to win $100 -- Could not get positive juice on the overnight line and this line is going down at some Books already...So since I could not get plus-juice, I did not sell a point as that was still negative juice (barely)...The Knicks couldn't stop Dallas on WED, giving up 114 to the Dirk-less Mavs in Dallas...Then the coup de grâce on Friday, a humiliating loss to Houston last time out where the Knicks could not stop the Rockets' cheerleaders from scoring, giving up a league-high 131 points in regulation time...I would hope the embarrassment of that game will be enough to propel this team to try and play a little defense Sunday at MSG against the 26th ranked offense (in terms of PPG) of the Pistons...Last Sunday at MSG, the Knicks held Indiana (currently ranked 27th in PPG) to 39% shooting and 76 points...I expect more of the same today from the Knicks defense, whose defensive numbers are dropping like a lead balloon on the league stat page this week...The Knicks will be hungry to end their 2-game losing streak and they know the best way to do that is to turn the heat on defensively...The Knicks started last season with 4 straight Unders on early afternoon games at MSG and I hope they can do that again to start this season...
Since Toronto played in the only afternoon Over game this season (on a Saturday at Boston, with a high-scoring 2H as it was an easy Under in the 1H), I am a bit wary of taking them Under against SA, whose offense seems to be clicking a bit lately...Their last couple head-to-head meetings were high-scoring affairs, too, so since I don't believe both of the 1:00 games will go Under) although they could), I am choosing the DET/NY game as the one MOST likely to cash on the Under...
GL...
Top 3 totals for Sunday are:
1) NY un, 2) Bkn un, 3) Tor un
I am going to pick the 1:05 game that is most likely to go Over (hope I am not wrong), and then I will look at the 3:05 game as I'll have 3 quarters and some change in the books on the early games...
Detroit/New York Under 192, laying $109 to win $100 -- Could not get positive juice on the overnight line and this line is going down at some Books already...So since I could not get plus-juice, I did not sell a point as that was still negative juice (barely)...The Knicks couldn't stop Dallas on WED, giving up 114 to the Dirk-less Mavs in Dallas...Then the coup de grâce on Friday, a humiliating loss to Houston last time out where the Knicks could not stop the Rockets' cheerleaders from scoring, giving up a league-high 131 points in regulation time...I would hope the embarrassment of that game will be enough to propel this team to try and play a little defense Sunday at MSG against the 26th ranked offense (in terms of PPG) of the Pistons...Last Sunday at MSG, the Knicks held Indiana (currently ranked 27th in PPG) to 39% shooting and 76 points...I expect more of the same today from the Knicks defense, whose defensive numbers are dropping like a lead balloon on the league stat page this week...The Knicks will be hungry to end their 2-game losing streak and they know the best way to do that is to turn the heat on defensively...The Knicks started last season with 4 straight Unders on early afternoon games at MSG and I hope they can do that again to start this season...
Since Toronto played in the only afternoon Over game this season (on a Saturday at Boston, with a high-scoring 2H as it was an easy Under in the 1H), I am a bit wary of taking them Under against SA, whose offense seems to be clicking a bit lately...Their last couple head-to-head meetings were high-scoring affairs, too, so since I don't believe both of the 1:00 games will go Under) although they could), I am choosing the DET/NY game as the one MOST likely to cash on the Under...
GL...
Top 3 totals for Sunday are:
1) NY un, 2) Bkn un, 3) Tor un
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Rankings...
Sides:
1) Sac, 2) LAL, 3) Was, 4) Atl, 5) GS, 6) Mia, 7) Phi, 8) Milw
Totals:
1) Mia ov, 2) GS ov, 3) Sac un, 4) LAL ov, 5) Atl un, 6) Phi ov, 7) Was un, 8) Milw ov
Not sure if I am betting anything else other than 2H plays although the Lakers and Wiz look tempting as WASH looks for their first win and the Lakers look for their 1st road win and have a payback spot here...
1) Sac, 2) LAL, 3) Was, 4) Atl, 5) GS, 6) Mia, 7) Phi, 8) Milw
Totals:
1) Mia ov, 2) GS ov, 3) Sac un, 4) LAL ov, 5) Atl un, 6) Phi ov, 7) Was un, 8) Milw ov
Not sure if I am betting anything else other than 2H plays although the Lakers and Wiz look tempting as WASH looks for their first win and the Lakers look for their 1st road win and have a payback spot here...
Saturday play...
Sacramento Kings Pick, laying $100 to win $102 -- Line coming down all day, so this will be my last shot at positive juice unless I want to give points...SAC getting 1.5 right now...If at first you don't succeed, try, try again and that is the situation with the Kings tonight in the back-end of this home-and-home match-up...The Kings led virtually the entire game last night before losing on the final possession as Gordon Hayward got loose at the top of they key to hit the game-winning shot with less than 5 seconds left for the victory...The Kings led by double-digits earlier n the 4Q...So it's not like the Kings cannot win this game...They should have won at Utah last night, a venue where the Jazz are 5-0 this season...Chart-play still to play the Kings and although they have not been stellar at Home (3-4 SU), the Jazz have been subpar on the Road, to be kind, at 2-6 with their only wins coming at 3-10 Toronto (in triple-OT) and Washington (0-10 on the season)...The last 3 games between these 2 teams have been decided by 2 points or less...SAC is on even-footing with the Jazz at Home and I look for them to exact revenge on Utah and finish tonight what they could not last night...
GL...
Also, when I make plays, I often sell 1 to 1.5 points on the totals and sides...Every now and then it will cost me a win and last night was the first time it happened all season...But I just looked back at all the plus-juice I won all season while selling points and I am still well ahead after taking that tough beat last night...I know that most of the people reading this got the total at 197.5 and that's perfect and a few of you got it at 198, and well, a push is better than a loss, but I am all about grabbing as much value as I can with every play...At the end of the season, if selling points cost me money in the long run, then I may cut back on how many points I sell, we'll see...All depends on what the numbers show as the season progresses...
GL...
Also, when I make plays, I often sell 1 to 1.5 points on the totals and sides...Every now and then it will cost me a win and last night was the first time it happened all season...But I just looked back at all the plus-juice I won all season while selling points and I am still well ahead after taking that tough beat last night...I know that most of the people reading this got the total at 197.5 and that's perfect and a few of you got it at 198, and well, a push is better than a loss, but I am all about grabbing as much value as I can with every play...At the end of the season, if selling points cost me money in the long run, then I may cut back on how many points I sell, we'll see...All depends on what the numbers show as the season progresses...
Friday, November 23, 2012
Friday plays...
San Antonio/Indiana over 192, laying $100 to win $103 -- A chart-play to stick with the Over on Indy and we know that SA can have an Over on any given night...Indy the top defensive team in the league in terms of FG% allowed, but I think that will start to fall off and that number will "return to the mean" and you'll see more Overs in Indy games...
Minnesota at Portland, over 199, laying $100 to win $107 -- Kevin Love being back means more points, more points, more points for Minny and remember that Barea and Pekovic very recently returned for Minny so expect their points to go up...And they happen to be playing the worst defensive team in the league (in terms of FG% allowed) and PORT is 4-2 to the Over at Home, so I see this game getting to 205 without too much of an issue...
Sacramento Kings +8, laying $100 to win $111 -- Another chart-play here as SAC went 9 games before covering a spread with their win against the Lakers last time out...It was a NC2, Push, then a NC6 before that win over the Lake-Show...Utah can blow anyone out at any time at Home, and are 4-0 SU & ATS this season at Home, but they have had favorable spots in at least 3 of those wins and I think SAC can take this down to the final possession or 2...
I am going to play the Lakers small as there is a strong chart-play to fade Memphis tonight, and the only reason I don't take the Lake-Show for a regular-sized bet is because of their early-season struggles and coaching changes...But I cannot ignore a strong chart-play without having something on the Lakers and the ML...
GL...
Minnesota at Portland, over 199, laying $100 to win $107 -- Kevin Love being back means more points, more points, more points for Minny and remember that Barea and Pekovic very recently returned for Minny so expect their points to go up...And they happen to be playing the worst defensive team in the league (in terms of FG% allowed) and PORT is 4-2 to the Over at Home, so I see this game getting to 205 without too much of an issue...
Sacramento Kings +8, laying $100 to win $111 -- Another chart-play here as SAC went 9 games before covering a spread with their win against the Lakers last time out...It was a NC2, Push, then a NC6 before that win over the Lake-Show...Utah can blow anyone out at any time at Home, and are 4-0 SU & ATS this season at Home, but they have had favorable spots in at least 3 of those wins and I think SAC can take this down to the final possession or 2...
I am going to play the Lakers small as there is a strong chart-play to fade Memphis tonight, and the only reason I don't take the Lake-Show for a regular-sized bet is because of their early-season struggles and coaching changes...But I cannot ignore a strong chart-play without having something on the Lakers and the ML...
GL...
Friday Rankings...
Sides:
1) Sac, 2) LAL, 3) NO, 4) Min, 5) Bkn, 6) SA, 7) OKC, 8) GS, 9) Hou, 10) Det, 11) Atl, 12) Cle
Totals:
1) Min ov, 2) SA ov, 3) Cle un, 4) Bkn ov, 5) OKC ov, 6) Hou ov, 7) LAL ov, 8) NO ov, 9) Sac un, 10) GS un, 11) Det un, 12 Atl ov
I like my top 2 totals and like some sides, so I will sort out the bets in the next 30 minutes...
Probably betting SAC, despite Utah being 4-0 SU and ATS at Home...
More to come...
1) Sac, 2) LAL, 3) NO, 4) Min, 5) Bkn, 6) SA, 7) OKC, 8) GS, 9) Hou, 10) Det, 11) Atl, 12) Cle
Totals:
1) Min ov, 2) SA ov, 3) Cle un, 4) Bkn ov, 5) OKC ov, 6) Hou ov, 7) LAL ov, 8) NO ov, 9) Sac un, 10) GS un, 11) Det un, 12 Atl ov
I like my top 2 totals and like some sides, so I will sort out the bets in the next 30 minutes...
Probably betting SAC, despite Utah being 4-0 SU and ATS at Home...
More to come...
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Total play...
Milwaukee/Miami Over 204, laying $100 to win $103 -- I am also playing Milw/Mia over 1Q as I think these 2 teams will be flying out of the gate and I think the PACE here is going to be super-quick...Not sure how MILW is going to stop Miami from getting shots, LOTS of shots, so all the Heat have to do is make (I know, easier said then done)...Miami has 7 straight 1Q Unders...They are 3-1 to the Over in the 1Q at Home and this is their first game Home after a 6-game Road trip...They have had 3 days rest for this one and I feel strongly that we will have a 1Q and 1H Over (fairly easily) which should be enough to carry the game total over...
GL...
GL...
Totals rankings...
Totals:
1) Milw ov, 2) NO ov, 3) NY ov, 4) Port ov, 5) Cle ov, 6) Sac ov, 7) Den ov, 8) Tor ov, 9) Det un, 10) SA un, 11) Bkn ov, 12) LAC ov, 13) Chi un, 14) Was un
1) Milw ov, 2) NO ov, 3) NY ov, 4) Port ov, 5) Cle ov, 6) Sac ov, 7) Den ov, 8) Tor ov, 9) Det un, 10) SA un, 11) Bkn ov, 12) LAC ov, 13) Chi un, 14) Was un
WED play...
Denver Nuggets -4, laying $100 to win $104 -- I realize this is a huge public play...I don't care...There is no stat anywhere that says the public wins 0% of the time...The puclic wins anywhere from 40% to 50% of the time and to me, they will be right tonight on this Denver play...Still a small-chart play to fade Minny...The T'Wolves have Barea and Pekovic back tonight and Denver is under-achieving big-time until this upset win over Memphis last time out...Let-down spot for Denver?...I don't think so...I am thinking this win over the Grizz has the potential to get the Nuggets on track...DEN is one-game under .500 and believe me when I say because I have played team sports all my life, players talk about "getting to .500" when the opportunity presents itself...The Nuggets can get to 6-6 with a win tonight and that is why I feel that this win over MEMP is more of a "spring-board" win, rather than a win that sets up a let-down spot...Minny getting 2 guys back tonight means some rotation adjustments, but I feel that this Denver team is on the verge of breaking out of their early-season slump...
GL...
Kind of like Toronto, too as they are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS on the back-end of back-to-backs this season and all 3 of their wins this season have come on back-enders...Yes, the Raptors are playing their 4th game in 5 days, but they already covered a 4-of-5 game at DAL earlier in the season...Might be worth a ML play...
Rankings for Sides, totals to come:
Sides:
1) Den, 2) Tor, 3) NO, 4) SA, 5) LAC, 6) NY, 7) Det, 8) Cle, 9) Milw, 10) Port, 11) Bkn, 12) Sac, 13) Was, 14) Chi
GL...
Kind of like Toronto, too as they are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS on the back-end of back-to-backs this season and all 3 of their wins this season have come on back-enders...Yes, the Raptors are playing their 4th game in 5 days, but they already covered a 4-of-5 game at DAL earlier in the season...Might be worth a ML play...
Rankings for Sides, totals to come:
Sides:
1) Den, 2) Tor, 3) NO, 4) SA, 5) LAC, 6) NY, 7) Det, 8) Cle, 9) Milw, 10) Port, 11) Bkn, 12) Sac, 13) Was, 14) Chi
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Tuesday looks & rankings...
Doubt if I play anything today as I will look at 2H plays...Only play that kind of jumps out at first-blush is Brooklyn/LA Lakers Over 1Q as the Lakers are flying over the 1Q's since D'Antono was announced as the new coach and I watched both games in their entirety and Gasol is not hesitating to shoot now if he is open...2 games ago vs. PHOE he was wide open from the exact spot on the floor about 18 feet away 5 times in a row and he did not hesitate at all and swished all 5 shots in the 1Q...The Lakers are putting up a lot more shots since D'Antoni was announced as the new coach and have come out of the gate flying...
My only worry about this 1Q Over bet is Brooklyn is 3-0 to the Under in the 1Q on the Road, while they are 5-0 to the Over in the 1Q at Home...Kind of like Miami, who hasn't gone Over yet in 7 Road games in the 1Q, while flying Over in 3 of their 4 Home games and their only Under in the 1Q at Home was against Brooklyn (although it wasn't by much)...
So that 1Q Over at Staples is the only play I am considering right now (although Vegas did jack it up a bit -- 54)...I will look for 2H plays...I am just not crazy about this Board...I want to take New Orleans and the moneyline, but the only 2 games they didn't cover were at Home and those were blowouts...
Sides:
1) Tor, 2) Bkn, 3) NO
Totals:
1) Bkn ov, 2) NO un, 3) Tor ov
My only worry about this 1Q Over bet is Brooklyn is 3-0 to the Under in the 1Q on the Road, while they are 5-0 to the Over in the 1Q at Home...Kind of like Miami, who hasn't gone Over yet in 7 Road games in the 1Q, while flying Over in 3 of their 4 Home games and their only Under in the 1Q at Home was against Brooklyn (although it wasn't by much)...
So that 1Q Over at Staples is the only play I am considering right now (although Vegas did jack it up a bit -- 54)...I will look for 2H plays...I am just not crazy about this Board...I want to take New Orleans and the moneyline, but the only 2 games they didn't cover were at Home and those were blowouts...
Sides:
1) Tor, 2) Bkn, 3) NO
Totals:
1) Bkn ov, 2) NO un, 3) Tor ov
Monday, November 19, 2012
Monday play...
Denver Nuggets +7, laying $107 to win $100 -- I did sprinkle a little bit on the +250 moneyline with Denver, too...I did not sell any points because the line is sitting at 7, the only "key" number in the NBA...Bounce-back spot here for the Nuggets off a 26-point loss at San Antonio, although I think this blowout loss is a little deceiving as the Spurs outscored the Nuggets by 36 points behind the 3-point arc...Memphis has won and covered 8 straight and there is a very good shot that both of those streaks come to an end tonight...Coach George Karl mentioned his squad will have to bring their A-game to win this one and I am hoping and believe that they will do just that and that this game will come down to the wire to determine a winner...
GL...
GL...
Monday rankings & thoughts...
Sides:
1) Den, 2) SA, 3) Dal, 4) Was, 5) Char, 6) Utah, 7) Orl
Totals:
1) Orl ov, 2) Char un, 3) Utah ov, 4) Den un, 5) Was un, 6) SA un, 7) Dal ov
Thoughts:
DEN shot 50% from the field last game, a 26-point loss to the Spurs at SA, but SA shot 59.3% from 3-land (16 for 27) while Den hit 4 threes so the Nuggets were outscored 48-12 on 3-pointers and that was more than the difference in the game...Memphis has 5 guys who can shoot from beyond the arc (3 off the bench), but this team doesn't shoot the 3 as much as the Spurs do...This game is going to be won on the boards and both teams have ferocious offensive rebounders in Zach Randolph (MEMP) and Kenneth Faried (DEN) as Randolph leads the league in rebounding while Faried leads the league in offensive rebounds per game at a sickening 5.6 ORPG clip...MEMP will be looking for a new franchise-high 9-game winning streak if they can win this one, but I like Denver in this bounce-back spot...MEMP on a C8 (covered 8 straight) and from this point on, this streak will be hard to maintain as they barely covered their last game at CHAR by 1/2 a point...
Orl/Atl Over is a chart-play for the ATL Over after a push and 5 Unders before having an Over their last time out...
Spurs have a revenge spot with the Clips from 11 days ago when LAC massacred SA at Staples and the Spurs' players are saying in the San Antonio papers that they owe them one as they admitted the Clips played with way more intensity than the Spurs last time out...
Mavs also a chart-play as they covered last time out after a NC6...The Wizards at 0-8 fighting for their first win and they have a great shot tonight as they stayed with Indy the entire game at Conseco 9 days ago before losing by 4...
1) Den, 2) SA, 3) Dal, 4) Was, 5) Char, 6) Utah, 7) Orl
Totals:
1) Orl ov, 2) Char un, 3) Utah ov, 4) Den un, 5) Was un, 6) SA un, 7) Dal ov
Thoughts:
DEN shot 50% from the field last game, a 26-point loss to the Spurs at SA, but SA shot 59.3% from 3-land (16 for 27) while Den hit 4 threes so the Nuggets were outscored 48-12 on 3-pointers and that was more than the difference in the game...Memphis has 5 guys who can shoot from beyond the arc (3 off the bench), but this team doesn't shoot the 3 as much as the Spurs do...This game is going to be won on the boards and both teams have ferocious offensive rebounders in Zach Randolph (MEMP) and Kenneth Faried (DEN) as Randolph leads the league in rebounding while Faried leads the league in offensive rebounds per game at a sickening 5.6 ORPG clip...MEMP will be looking for a new franchise-high 9-game winning streak if they can win this one, but I like Denver in this bounce-back spot...MEMP on a C8 (covered 8 straight) and from this point on, this streak will be hard to maintain as they barely covered their last game at CHAR by 1/2 a point...
Orl/Atl Over is a chart-play for the ATL Over after a push and 5 Unders before having an Over their last time out...
Spurs have a revenge spot with the Clips from 11 days ago when LAC massacred SA at Staples and the Spurs' players are saying in the San Antonio papers that they owe them one as they admitted the Clips played with way more intensity than the Spurs last time out...
Mavs also a chart-play as they covered last time out after a NC6...The Wizards at 0-8 fighting for their first win and they have a great shot tonight as they stayed with Indy the entire game at Conseco 9 days ago before losing by 4...
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Sunday rankings...
Sides:
1) Ind, 2) Cle, 3) GS, 4) Tor, 5) Hou, 6) Sac, 7) Det, 8) Chi
Totals:
1) Ind un, 2) Sac un, 3) Tor un, 4) GS un, 5) Cle un, 6) Hou ov, 7) Det un, 8) Chi un
Passed on the Orl/Tor automatic under after seeing the high-scoring 2H with TOR yesterday afternoon to kill what looked like a fairly easy winner at the half...Both of these teams rank very poorly in FG% allowed, so I'll pass after seeing how slow the scoring was in this Knocks game halfway through the 2Q...
1) Ind, 2) Cle, 3) GS, 4) Tor, 5) Hou, 6) Sac, 7) Det, 8) Chi
Totals:
1) Ind un, 2) Sac un, 3) Tor un, 4) GS un, 5) Cle un, 6) Hou ov, 7) Det un, 8) Chi un
Passed on the Orl/Tor automatic under after seeing the high-scoring 2H with TOR yesterday afternoon to kill what looked like a fairly easy winner at the half...Both of these teams rank very poorly in FG% allowed, so I'll pass after seeing how slow the scoring was in this Knocks game halfway through the 2Q...
Sunday early play...
Indiana/New York under 187, laying $100 to win $105 -- Taking the early afternoon Under again...This time I have 2 teams in the top 8 in FG% allowed (Indy #1 & NY #8)...
This Indy/NY line looks trappish as it would appear Vegas is just begging you to take the Knicks here...78% of the public all over NY, of course...Indy will be a #1 Side today and this game is my top total, too...Strong chart-play to fade NY as they covered their first 6 games and now have their first NC and Indy has a mini-chart play to take them after ending a NC4 on FRI with a win over Dallas...I don't know if I have the balls to take Indy as the Knicks have been super-tough at home thus far...
GL...
This Indy/NY line looks trappish as it would appear Vegas is just begging you to take the Knicks here...78% of the public all over NY, of course...Indy will be a #1 Side today and this game is my top total, too...Strong chart-play to fade NY as they covered their first 6 games and now have their first NC and Indy has a mini-chart play to take them after ending a NC4 on FRI with a win over Dallas...I don't know if I have the balls to take Indy as the Knicks have been super-tough at home thus far...
GL...
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Saturday rankings...
Sides:
1) NO, 2) Cle, 3) Was, 4) Chi, 5) Char, 6) SA, 7) Bos
Totals:
1) Bos un, 2) Chi ov, 3) Cle ov, 4) SA ov, 5) NO un, 6) Was ov, 7) Char un
Really no Miami/Phoe line out right now as LeBron is questionable and his status determines who I pick in that game for the total...If he plays, I like it Over, and obviously if he doesn't, I like it Under...
Debating a play on NO...I guess I will pass on CLE as the standard play here generally is to FADE a team who just got Home after a 6-game Road trip, BUT, in this instance, CLE has had 3 days rest since their last game while most of the times the Home team has 1 days rest after coming Home from a 5 or 6-day Roadie, so to me, the 3 days of rest gives this team some practice time and some coaching and they get DAL on a back-ender and the Mavs have not covered 6 straight...
MEMP has covered 7 straight and most long streaks like this end at 7, although some years the streak number will extend to 8 before ending...CHAR's 4-3 record is Incredibly deceiving as they have beaten Indy without Granger, DAL without Dirk, WAS without Wall & Nene and MIN without 6 regulars including Love and Rubio...And MEMP is a Huge step up in class here, but I still think there will be a let-down spot for MEMP and the Bobcats could come out of here with a win or perhaps a back-door cover if MEMP stays white-hot tonight...This is the Grizzlies first back-ender of the season, the 2nd to last team in the league not to have one till tonight (Brooklyn still hasn't had one)...
Bulls are a chart-play tonight...
1) NO, 2) Cle, 3) Was, 4) Chi, 5) Char, 6) SA, 7) Bos
Totals:
1) Bos un, 2) Chi ov, 3) Cle ov, 4) SA ov, 5) NO un, 6) Was ov, 7) Char un
Really no Miami/Phoe line out right now as LeBron is questionable and his status determines who I pick in that game for the total...If he plays, I like it Over, and obviously if he doesn't, I like it Under...
Debating a play on NO...I guess I will pass on CLE as the standard play here generally is to FADE a team who just got Home after a 6-game Road trip, BUT, in this instance, CLE has had 3 days rest since their last game while most of the times the Home team has 1 days rest after coming Home from a 5 or 6-day Roadie, so to me, the 3 days of rest gives this team some practice time and some coaching and they get DAL on a back-ender and the Mavs have not covered 6 straight...
MEMP has covered 7 straight and most long streaks like this end at 7, although some years the streak number will extend to 8 before ending...CHAR's 4-3 record is Incredibly deceiving as they have beaten Indy without Granger, DAL without Dirk, WAS without Wall & Nene and MIN without 6 regulars including Love and Rubio...And MEMP is a Huge step up in class here, but I still think there will be a let-down spot for MEMP and the Bobcats could come out of here with a win or perhaps a back-door cover if MEMP stays white-hot tonight...This is the Grizzlies first back-ender of the season, the 2nd to last team in the league not to have one till tonight (Brooklyn still hasn't had one)...
Bulls are a chart-play tonight...
SAT rankings...
Just got home from work -- should have them a little after 7 p.m....No plays on the 7 p.m. game...
Saturday play...
Automatic play:
Toronto/Boston under 187.5, laying $105 to win $100 -- Line dropping all morning but yes, I am taking the tried-and-true "taking early afternoon games under" trend which is 3-0 already this season...Rondo questionable, so if he doesn't play, that can certainly help...
GL...
Toronto/Boston under 187.5, laying $105 to win $100 -- Line dropping all morning but yes, I am taking the tried-and-true "taking early afternoon games under" trend which is 3-0 already this season...Rondo questionable, so if he doesn't play, that can certainly help...
GL...
Friday, November 16, 2012
Friday play...
Golden State Warriors -2, (+113) laying $100 to win $113 -- Minny looks like a M*A*S*H* unit as half their team is injured now and I just do not know where the points are going to come from...GS playing better on the Road early on (2-0-1 ATS)...I probably should take the Under, too, as GS is 2-1 to the Under on the Road with their only Over a back-ender, but my totals have been terrible except for the automatic plays...A lot of seasons, my totals won't kick in till about mid-December...
Philly was pretty much an automatic play that I passed on as they shot less than 30% last time out, but they have been so terrible the last 2 games that I passed...Still tempted to take MEMP, too...
GL...
Philly was pretty much an automatic play that I passed on as they shot less than 30% last time out, but they have been so terrible the last 2 games that I passed...Still tempted to take MEMP, too...
GL...
Friday rankings...
Sides:
1) GS, 2) Memp, 3) Phi, 4) NO, 5) Ind), 6) Orl, 7) Port, 8) Atl, 9) LAL
Totals:
1) GS un, 2) LAL ov, 3) Port ov, 4) Mem ov, 5) NO un, 6) Phi ov, 7) Atl un, 8) Orl un, 9) Ind ov
Thinking about plays on GS and Memp, but giving the Knicks 6 is tough to do as they are white-hot...Huge let-down spot, though...MEMP also has a let-down spot after a testy win vs. OKC where they did make a statement, but they have a days rest after that big win and controlled the game for the most part after the 1Q...NY had an incredible late rally to beat SA and now they get on a plane and head to MEM...Going to be super-tough to turn it up a notch tonight, IMO...
1) GS, 2) Memp, 3) Phi, 4) NO, 5) Ind), 6) Orl, 7) Port, 8) Atl, 9) LAL
Totals:
1) GS un, 2) LAL ov, 3) Port ov, 4) Mem ov, 5) NO un, 6) Phi ov, 7) Atl un, 8) Orl un, 9) Ind ov
Thinking about plays on GS and Memp, but giving the Knicks 6 is tough to do as they are white-hot...Huge let-down spot, though...MEMP also has a let-down spot after a testy win vs. OKC where they did make a statement, but they have a days rest after that big win and controlled the game for the most part after the 1Q...NY had an incredible late rally to beat SA and now they get on a plane and head to MEM...Going to be super-tough to turn it up a notch tonight, IMO...
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Thursday rankings...
Rankings:
Sides:
1) NY, 2) Den, 3) Bos
Totals:
1) NY un, 2) Den ov, 3) Bos un
I am not betting any game lines although I am tempted to take NY, Den and Mia/Den 1Q ov...But again, Miami has NOT had an Over yet in the 1Q on The Road as the game last night missed the Over by 1/2 a point and stayed Under...
Reasoning for the Knicks is strictly riding the hot team...I am not sure if SA ever has let-down situations but they are coming off a nice win at the Lakers last time out...Hard to ignore the points for NY in a game they can win outright...
Denver has a relatively short revenge spot here as they lost a tough one to the Heat at Miami 12 days ago...
Boston won't be "tired" in this back-ender as Doc Rivers did not play any of his players big minutes last night in their win over Utah...Brandon Bass was the only guy over 30 minutes (32 min.)...
Sides:
1) NY, 2) Den, 3) Bos
Totals:
1) NY un, 2) Den ov, 3) Bos un
I am not betting any game lines although I am tempted to take NY, Den and Mia/Den 1Q ov...But again, Miami has NOT had an Over yet in the 1Q on The Road as the game last night missed the Over by 1/2 a point and stayed Under...
Reasoning for the Knicks is strictly riding the hot team...I am not sure if SA ever has let-down situations but they are coming off a nice win at the Lakers last time out...Hard to ignore the points for NY in a game they can win outright...
Denver has a relatively short revenge spot here as they lost a tough one to the Heat at Miami 12 days ago...
Boston won't be "tired" in this back-ender as Doc Rivers did not play any of his players big minutes last night in their win over Utah...Brandon Bass was the only guy over 30 minutes (32 min.)...
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
no play on late games...
Was thinking about Mia/LAC over 1Q and I still think it will go Over in the 1Q, but I am NOT betting it because Miami hasn't had a 1Q Over yet on the Road and LAC, after having many 1Q overs, have had a couple of 1Q Unders recently...Tough for me NOT to take this 1Q Over, but I will pass and hopefully not regret it...
Wednesday play...
Memphis Grizzlies +5.5, laying $107 to win $100 -- Normally I'd say this is a let-down spot for MEMP after beating Miami last time out, but they have 2 days rest and OKC is playing their 5th game in 7 days and they have been spotty at best with their play, needing a big 4Q to get by DET last time out...MEMP may want to make a statement here...
GL...
GL...
WED rankings...
Sides:
1) Mem, 2) Det, 3) Milw, 4) Chi, 5) NO, 6) GS, 7) Dal, 8) LAC, 9) Utah, 10) Char
Totals:
1) Dal un, 2) Memp un, 3) Det un, 4) Chi ov, 5) NO un, 6) Milw un, 7) Utah ov, 8) GS un, 9) Char ov, 10) LAC un
1) Mem, 2) Det, 3) Milw, 4) Chi, 5) NO, 6) GS, 7) Dal, 8) LAC, 9) Utah, 10) Char
Totals:
1) Dal un, 2) Memp un, 3) Det un, 4) Chi ov, 5) NO un, 6) Milw un, 7) Utah ov, 8) GS un, 9) Char ov, 10) LAC un
Rankings to be posted soon...
Day from Hell at work, and I mean, Super-busy and I had some side BS, and I mean, total BS, that I had to deal with, too, on the side...
Det and Det un will be in y rankings for the 7:05 game, probably in the top 5 for both, but no bets on either...
Probably have a play on the MIA/LAC game later and I'll look at things a bit more as I have 30 minutes here to nail things down...
Det and Det un will be in y rankings for the 7:05 game, probably in the top 5 for both, but no bets on either...
Probably have a play on the MIA/LAC game later and I'll look at things a bit more as I have 30 minutes here to nail things down...
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
adding Wiz ML...
Washington Wizards Pick (+118), laying $100 to win $118 -- Wiz 0-5 and I am taking the angle where "a winless team of 0-5 and greater is fighting hard for their 1st win"...We are seeing Detroit fighting hard the last week for their first win and if you look at Washington's schedule, this is their best shot until Indy on the 19th or the Bobcats again on the 24th...
GL...
GL...
Tuesday rankings...
Forgot to bring my paper charts to work, so it takes way longer to cap the Board with these crappy websites and their info which is 98% useless...Also helped moved 2500 pounds of carpeting up to our 2nd-floor facility (the side we just acquired) and I am sore as all hell as I am sure the other 5 guys are, too...8 rolls of carpeting weighing 300+ pounds each up multiple flights of stairs...Not fun...I am getting more sore just typing this...
I have one play for sure and am debating another...Staying away from totals except for automatic plays...
Rankings:
Sides:
1) Tor, 2) Was, 3) Orl, 4) Port, 5) Cle, 6) LAL
Totals:
1) Tor ov, 2) Was ov, 3) Orl un, 4) LAL un, 5) Port un, 6) Cle un
Taking:
Toronto Raptors +8, (+118) laying $100 to win $118 -- Thinking about Toronto ML for a fraction of a unit at +408 and that fraction would be 25% (or $25 in this instance)...They haven't won at Indy in a couple of years and are banged up right now and played a triple-OT game last night but back-to-backs don't bother this team as they are 2-0 ATS in this spot and won their only game on a back-ender...Covered 2 of 3 Road games against better competition than this Indy team...It just comes down to whether they can avoid a big Indy surge to start the game...If they can avoid that and stay in the game for 3 quarters, they can win this game...
I am thinking about a play on the Wizards ML as they are winless and no doubt see a legit opportunity for their first win tonight at CHAR...Someone mentioned somewhere that the Bobcats haven't won 2 straight home game since last March, but, hey whatever, the Wiz's motivation here is certainly stronger than that stat...
GL...
I have one play for sure and am debating another...Staying away from totals except for automatic plays...
Rankings:
Sides:
1) Tor, 2) Was, 3) Orl, 4) Port, 5) Cle, 6) LAL
Totals:
1) Tor ov, 2) Was ov, 3) Orl un, 4) LAL un, 5) Port un, 6) Cle un
Taking:
Toronto Raptors +8, (+118) laying $100 to win $118 -- Thinking about Toronto ML for a fraction of a unit at +408 and that fraction would be 25% (or $25 in this instance)...They haven't won at Indy in a couple of years and are banged up right now and played a triple-OT game last night but back-to-backs don't bother this team as they are 2-0 ATS in this spot and won their only game on a back-ender...Covered 2 of 3 Road games against better competition than this Indy team...It just comes down to whether they can avoid a big Indy surge to start the game...If they can avoid that and stay in the game for 3 quarters, they can win this game...
I am thinking about a play on the Wizards ML as they are winless and no doubt see a legit opportunity for their first win tonight at CHAR...Someone mentioned somewhere that the Bobcats haven't won 2 straight home game since last March, but, hey whatever, the Wiz's motivation here is certainly stronger than that stat...
GL...
Monday, November 12, 2012
2H play...
Philadelphia 76ers -5, 2H, laying $106 to win $100...Borderline play but fits several criteria for me...Was going to play Under, too, but Philly shot a tad low FG%-wise in the 1H for me to do that...
GL...
GL...
NBA play...
Mia/Houston under 195, laying $107 to win $100 -- Miami shut down Jeremy Lin last year during Lin's magical run in NY by being
physical with him and I am going from memory, but I believe Lin had 8 turnovers
in that game at Miami...This game is at HOU, but all the Heat have to do is
contain Lin and Harden and if they can do that, I don't see Houston reaching 80
points...HOU has 4 straight Unders and MIA has 3 straight Unders...MIA 3-0 to
the Under on the Road and HOU 3-0 to the Under at Home...
GL...
GL...
rankings...
Sides:
1) Mia, 2) Bos, 3) Port, 4) Min, 5) OKC, 6) Phi, 7) Tor, 8) Den
Totals:
1) Mia un, 2) Min ov, 3) Phi un, 4) Bos un, 5) Tor un, 6) Port un, 7) OKC ov, 8) Den un
I am thinking about Miami under as I think they will shut down the Rockets...They shut down Jeremy Lin last year during Lin's magical run in NY by being physical with him and I am going from memory, but I believe Lin had 8 turnovers in that game at Miami...This game is at HOU, but all the Heat have to do is contain Lin and Harden and if they can do that, I don't see Houston reaching 80 points...HOU has 4 straight Unders and MIA has 3 straight Unders...MIA 3-0 to the Under on the Road and HOU 3-0 to the Under at Home...
1) Mia, 2) Bos, 3) Port, 4) Min, 5) OKC, 6) Phi, 7) Tor, 8) Den
Totals:
1) Mia un, 2) Min ov, 3) Phi un, 4) Bos un, 5) Tor un, 6) Port un, 7) OKC ov, 8) Den un
I am thinking about Miami under as I think they will shut down the Rockets...They shut down Jeremy Lin last year during Lin's magical run in NY by being physical with him and I am going from memory, but I believe Lin had 8 turnovers in that game at Miami...This game is at HOU, but all the Heat have to do is contain Lin and Harden and if they can do that, I don't see Houston reaching 80 points...HOU has 4 straight Unders and MIA has 3 straight Unders...MIA 3-0 to the Under on the Road and HOU 3-0 to the Under at Home...
2 NBA plays for now...
These 2 jumped out a bit and the Heat line already moved up 1/2 a point so I bet these now before finishing the Board and ranking my plays:
Boston Celtics Pick, (+126) laying $100 to win $126 -- Chart-play to BOS here, who was on a NC5 (didn't cover 5 straight) before winning and covering at MILW last time out...CHI is 0-5 ATS at Home...To say they have looked unimpressive is an under-statement, but they are 4-2 SU against a weak schedule as OKC is the only top tier team they have played and Boston still feels as though they are a top-tier team, too, although they have not played like one at all thus far...But they showed signs with this win at MILW...Hopefully there will be some carry-over and they can take care of this Chicago squad...
Miami Heat -6, (+105), laying $100 to win $105 -- Heat should be able to name their score here...Got trounced at Memphis last night and I expect them to bounce-back and win this by double-digits...I am still not impressed with HOU...Maybe they will prove me wrong...Talent-wise, this isn't even close, but this is a team sport, so anything can happen if a team is playing well and individuals are playing like individuals...The Heat are 15 points better than the Rockets on any given night and I am thinking that after last night's debacle at Memphis, tonight will be one of those nights...
GL...
Boston Celtics Pick, (+126) laying $100 to win $126 -- Chart-play to BOS here, who was on a NC5 (didn't cover 5 straight) before winning and covering at MILW last time out...CHI is 0-5 ATS at Home...To say they have looked unimpressive is an under-statement, but they are 4-2 SU against a weak schedule as OKC is the only top tier team they have played and Boston still feels as though they are a top-tier team, too, although they have not played like one at all thus far...But they showed signs with this win at MILW...Hopefully there will be some carry-over and they can take care of this Chicago squad...
Miami Heat -6, (+105), laying $100 to win $105 -- Heat should be able to name their score here...Got trounced at Memphis last night and I expect them to bounce-back and win this by double-digits...I am still not impressed with HOU...Maybe they will prove me wrong...Talent-wise, this isn't even close, but this is a team sport, so anything can happen if a team is playing well and individuals are playing like individuals...The Heat are 15 points better than the Rockets on any given night and I am thinking that after last night's debacle at Memphis, tonight will be one of those nights...
GL...
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Sunday rankings...
Sides:
1) Cle, 2) Memp, 3) LAC, 4) Orl, 5) LAL
Totals:
1) LAC un, 2) Cle ov, 3) Memp un, 4) Orl ov, 5) LAL un
1) Cle, 2) Memp, 3) LAC, 4) Orl, 5) LAL
Totals:
1) LAC un, 2) Cle ov, 3) Memp un, 4) Orl ov, 5) LAL un
NBA play...
Atlanta/L.A. Clippers under 195.5, laying $105 to win $100 -- Automatic play on the early afternoon game Under (12:30 p.m. local time start in LA)...Mini-chart-play to the Under for the Clips...
GL...
GL...
Sunday play...
Back to my blog...Didn't expect to be back this soon, but I am taking a hiatus from the Forum for obvious reasons...
NFL teaser:
NE Pick
Caro +16.5
STL +26
Hou +14
laying $140 to win $100...
NFL teaser:
NE Pick
Caro +16.5
STL +26
Hou +14
laying $140 to win $100...
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Saturday...
I do have a bet and am posting my Rankings and Thoughts at the ThinkDog forum right around 6:45 p.m. EST...
Remember, to register at the ThinkDog forum, you need to click here:
Register
And then you need to click on the Email address in that link and E.J. will set you up with an account...You cannot Register yourself as this is a semi-private forum...
If you cannot get registered through EJ via email please make a COMMENT on my Blog and I will look into it and maybe quick copy-and-paste my stuff here another night...
Remember, to register at the ThinkDog forum, you need to click here:
Register
And then you need to click on the Email address in that link and E.J. will set you up with an account...You cannot Register yourself as this is a semi-private forum...
If you cannot get registered through EJ via email please make a COMMENT on my Blog and I will look into it and maybe quick copy-and-paste my stuff here another night...
post-mortem for Friday...
Post-mortem on Friday...
I always do self-analysis to see what I could have done
better, if anything, about my night...
From a handicapping perspective, I could not have done
too much better on Friday...
The rankings show that, the games I talked about show
that and I even talked about 2 "automatic" plays that I have
established during 31 years of handicapping the NBA, and these 2 particular
automatic plays are pretty strong plays...Usually very strong, in fact...
And sure enough, Brooklyn won by 39 points and the Lakers
won by 24...
So what is clear and extremely upsetting to me is that I
had a solid night handicapping, but an awful, atrocious, abominable, agonizing
night of actual betting...
I hate to lose...It irks me to no end when I have a
losing night...I know this was "only" an 0-2 night, but it was a
terrible, horrific 0-2 night for me considering the games I talked about and
the automatic plays I did NOT bet...
I have said in multiple posts this season that my totals
are starting slow like most years and I need a few weeks, maybe a
month-and-a-half before the data is in and I start nailing those...But my sides
have been spot-on as the evidence has shown pretty much every night...Top 9
sides 8-1 with one half-point loser Friday and not a single bet...
All this proves to me is how hard it really can be to win
money long term at this...You not only have to be a good handicapper, you need
to select the right games after capping and then use smart money management on
the bets.
The money management I am not worried about as EJ and I
are doing a demonstration on that in "The Trek to $20,000"
section...I also am not worried about my handicapping...I just need, starting
Saturday, to bet the top plays I have ranked...
I haven't ranked my plays daily EVERY day since the
2007-08 season after doing it for 18 seasons in a row...I stopped doing it
daily due to a new job I started that season (and am still at, where I wrk 12
to 9 and often am there later than that because I close the joint down most
nights)...So maybe I just haven't adjusted to betting my top ranked plays just
yet, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE starting Saturday...
I still cannot figure out why I bet a #7 total and
bypassed all the sides I bypassed...
Won't happen again...
I am PISSED at myself and will make the necessary
correction...
Both those bets were NOT bad bets as GS and LAL shot
horribly...Horribly...Any kind of decent shooting % from those teams and it
would have went Over easily...And I still don't know how the Indy/Minny game
went Over because when I left work to go home, it was on an easy Under Pace
through 2 1/2 quarters...
But not betting a few of those Sides, especially the
automatic plays, was criminal on my part...
I won't let that happen again...
22 1/2 weeks left and hopefully this horrid night will
long be forgotten in a few weeks/months...
Onwards and (hopefully) Upwards...
Friday, November 9, 2012
additional Friday play...
Golden State/LA Lakers Over 199, laying $100 to win $102 -- Sold a point here...The game line moved up slightly because Bogut is OUT tonight...With the firing of Lakers' coach Mike Brown, this Lakers team will be super-motivated to win this one...I want to take them (-7.5) but I am deathly afraid of a back-door situation late as the Lakers bench is terrible...When Golden State played the Clips at staples last week, it was a back-end of a back-to-back and Bogut sat out that one...GS didn't have problems scoring as they put up 114 and the Clips Center DeAndre Jordan is a good defender...So I am not afraid of GS not scoring tonight...And I do think the Lakers are going to score mucho points because their starters should see extended minutes since they don't play till Sunday (they have Saturday off)...Their starters NEED to see extended minutes if this team is going to win against just about anyone right now...Don't be surprised if Kobe puts up 35 to 40...He'll want this one and should play at least 37 minutes...I simply cannot lay 7.5, but I will take the Over instead...Taking the Team total Over for the Lakers probably not a bad idea, too...
GL...
GL...
Another Friday play coming...
I have a late game that I am going to take...
I will be stalking for 2H lines, too...
Remember, to register at the ThinkDog forum, you need to click here:
Register
And then you need to click on the Email address in that link and E.J. will set you up with an account...You cannot Register yourself as this is a semi-private forum...
I will be stalking for 2H lines, too...
Remember, to register at the ThinkDog forum, you need to click here:
Register
And then you need to click on the Email address in that link and E.J. will set you up with an account...You cannot Register yourself as this is a semi-private forum...
Friday rankings...
Debating a 1Q play but we'll see...
JUST A NOTE -- I did make a bet at 4:00 p.m. today a few posts down...
Sides:
1) Det, 2) Den, 3) Bkn, 4) Char, 5) Phi, 6) Cle, 7) LAL, 8) Mia, 9) NY, 10) Was, 11) Sac, 12) Hou, 13) Ind
Totals:
1) Ind un, 2) Cle ov, 3) Den ov, 4) Mia un, 5) Phi un, 6) Sac ov, 7) LAL ov, 8) NY ov, 9) Det un, 10) Bkn ov, 11) Char un, 12) Hou ov, 13) Was un
Brief Thoughts:
Detroit will fight hard until they get their first win...I will often pick winless teams (0-5 or greater) early in the season in what I feel are the right spots and catching OKC with a questionable bench off a big win in CHI last night on National TV is one of these spots to back-door a big number...
Cleveland Over 4 straight and they have some guards who can score and Kylie Irving likes to push the ball...Phoenix 3 straight Overs themselves, so we have Overs colliding, which is usually good for the Over...
Denver 3 straight Overs but this total has SHOT UP all day long and losing some value may keep me from betting this game...
Brooklyn off a 30-point loss, so since they are supposed to be a "good" team, this is an automatic play for me...
I talked about the Lakers' new coach angle...
Philly is the gang who cannot shoot straight as they are DEAD LAST in offensive FG% right now after they were in the top 5 for several weeks at the beginning of last season...
Dallas Over in all 5 games against a Knicks' team who hasn't allowed over 84 points in any game yet (I think -- going by memory on that one)...
Even though it's only ranked #5, I like that Miami Under quite a bit tonight...Of course the total has dropped at least 4 points today, which is why it fell in my rankings as I lost value there...
JUST A NOTE -- I did make a bet at 4:00 p.m. today a few posts down...
Sides:
1) Det, 2) Den, 3) Bkn, 4) Char, 5) Phi, 6) Cle, 7) LAL, 8) Mia, 9) NY, 10) Was, 11) Sac, 12) Hou, 13) Ind
Totals:
1) Ind un, 2) Cle ov, 3) Den ov, 4) Mia un, 5) Phi un, 6) Sac ov, 7) LAL ov, 8) NY ov, 9) Det un, 10) Bkn ov, 11) Char un, 12) Hou ov, 13) Was un
Brief Thoughts:
Detroit will fight hard until they get their first win...I will often pick winless teams (0-5 or greater) early in the season in what I feel are the right spots and catching OKC with a questionable bench off a big win in CHI last night on National TV is one of these spots to back-door a big number...
Cleveland Over 4 straight and they have some guards who can score and Kylie Irving likes to push the ball...Phoenix 3 straight Overs themselves, so we have Overs colliding, which is usually good for the Over...
Denver 3 straight Overs but this total has SHOT UP all day long and losing some value may keep me from betting this game...
Brooklyn off a 30-point loss, so since they are supposed to be a "good" team, this is an automatic play for me...
I talked about the Lakers' new coach angle...
Philly is the gang who cannot shoot straight as they are DEAD LAST in offensive FG% right now after they were in the top 5 for several weeks at the beginning of last season...
Dallas Over in all 5 games against a Knicks' team who hasn't allowed over 84 points in any game yet (I think -- going by memory on that one)...
Even though it's only ranked #5, I like that Miami Under quite a bit tonight...Of course the total has dropped at least 4 points today, which is why it fell in my rankings as I lost value there...
Interesting angle tonight...
Mike Brown was fired today as Lakers' head coach...
People who have followed me for years KNOW I Love the "new coach trend" where "the team whose coach just got fired wins and covers for the new coach's 1st game"...
Was 3-0 ATS in the NFL last year (including a 13-point dog KC winning outright vs. GB) and I believe it was 3-0 ATS in the NBA last year, too, and I think it may be undefeated (ATS-wise) the last 2 seasons in the NBA (there may be one NC)...
But this is a UNIQUE situation...
Almost every time a coach gets fired, it's a bad team with a horrific record and they are getting points in the new coach's first game....Well, this is the Lakers, and they are giving 7.5 points now (up from 6.5) as Vegas MUST be on to this trend, because it has been MONEY the past few seasons across multiple sports...
This Lakers team is Terrible right now and I don't know if I can lay 7.5 against a GS team playing fairly decently...
Back with rankings shortly as all the picks are made, but I am ranking them...
People who have followed me for years KNOW I Love the "new coach trend" where "the team whose coach just got fired wins and covers for the new coach's 1st game"...
Was 3-0 ATS in the NFL last year (including a 13-point dog KC winning outright vs. GB) and I believe it was 3-0 ATS in the NBA last year, too, and I think it may be undefeated (ATS-wise) the last 2 seasons in the NBA (there may be one NC)...
But this is a UNIQUE situation...
Almost every time a coach gets fired, it's a bad team with a horrific record and they are getting points in the new coach's first game....Well, this is the Lakers, and they are giving 7.5 points now (up from 6.5) as Vegas MUST be on to this trend, because it has been MONEY the past few seasons across multiple sports...
This Lakers team is Terrible right now and I don't know if I can lay 7.5 against a GS team playing fairly decently...
Back with rankings shortly as all the picks are made, but I am ranking them...
Friday play and Announcement...
Announcement first -- With the busy season hitting me at work, I am going to try posting at ONE place for a couple of weeks to make my life a little easier rather than posting at one place and the copying-and-pasting to other places while I am betting at multiple sportsbooks...
So for the next 2 or 3 weeks, I am only going to post my plays and info at the ThinkDog forum...
Here is the link to register:
Register
It is a FREE forum, but semi-private...You will have to email my partner at the above link to get access to the Sports Forums where we have picks, plays and bets in there in multiple sports from handicappers like myself, EJ (my partner) and others...
I will post my rankings, thoughts and bets in there for the next 2 to 3 weeks...If I have a bet, I will put an alert here on my blog if I have time, but after tonight, for several weeks, I am going to post everything on the Forum in the NBA section ONLY, and see how it goes...
You won't be able to see the NBA section or any other section until you Register...
For tonight, I have a bet made already:
Indiana/Minnesota Under 183, laying $100 to win $100 -- I was pissed as the line sat at 184 & -105 and I was going to bet it but thought, "Hmmm, let's see if it goes up another 1/2 a point" as it started at 182.5 earlier in the day...I click on it 20 minutes later and it's FLYING downwards so I quick grabbed it at 183.5 at 2 Books and 183 at another with no juice...Indiana has NOT had an Over yet (in regulation time) this season...Sure, they have One over, but that was a double-overtime game and it was an Under in regulation time (which I track on my paper charts and in my database), so Indy is 5-0 to the Under in regulation time...Minny is 3-1 to the Under...I looked at the Pace in all 9 of these games and they were all pretty damn slow...The one Over that happened for Minny had a lot of offensive rebounds and put-backs and both teams shot well (Minny 50% and Brooklyn 48%)...Also, I know it is VERY early, but these 2 teams are in the Top 4 in the league right now for FG% Allowed on defense (Indy #1 and Minny #4)...So as long as the Pace stays the same and they don't shoot lights out and it doesn't go OT, then we got this Under tonight...
GL...
So for the next 2 or 3 weeks, I am only going to post my plays and info at the ThinkDog forum...
Here is the link to register:
Register
It is a FREE forum, but semi-private...You will have to email my partner at the above link to get access to the Sports Forums where we have picks, plays and bets in there in multiple sports from handicappers like myself, EJ (my partner) and others...
I will post my rankings, thoughts and bets in there for the next 2 to 3 weeks...If I have a bet, I will put an alert here on my blog if I have time, but after tonight, for several weeks, I am going to post everything on the Forum in the NBA section ONLY, and see how it goes...
You won't be able to see the NBA section or any other section until you Register...
For tonight, I have a bet made already:
Indiana/Minnesota Under 183, laying $100 to win $100 -- I was pissed as the line sat at 184 & -105 and I was going to bet it but thought, "Hmmm, let's see if it goes up another 1/2 a point" as it started at 182.5 earlier in the day...I click on it 20 minutes later and it's FLYING downwards so I quick grabbed it at 183.5 at 2 Books and 183 at another with no juice...Indiana has NOT had an Over yet (in regulation time) this season...Sure, they have One over, but that was a double-overtime game and it was an Under in regulation time (which I track on my paper charts and in my database), so Indy is 5-0 to the Under in regulation time...Minny is 3-1 to the Under...I looked at the Pace in all 9 of these games and they were all pretty damn slow...The one Over that happened for Minny had a lot of offensive rebounds and put-backs and both teams shot well (Minny 50% and Brooklyn 48%)...Also, I know it is VERY early, but these 2 teams are in the Top 4 in the league right now for FG% Allowed on defense (Indy #1 and Minny #4)...So as long as the Pace stays the same and they don't shoot lights out and it doesn't go OT, then we got this Under tonight...
GL...
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Thursday rankings...
Sides:
1) OKC, 2) Port
Totals:
1) OKC un, 2) Port ov
I simply don't have the guts to bet Portland tonight and didn't even have the guts to make them a #1 play...Let-down spot here for the Clips after a big win against the Spurs last night...PORT off a loss makes it even a better play and the "Old Brewers7" wouldn't hesitate to play Portland here, but I am a little gun-shy right now this early in the season...
OKC a very public play but CHI is 0-3 ATS at Home and has also played a very weak schedule thus far to "earn" that 3-1 SU record...They have not been impressive other than that blowout win at CLE which seems to have woken up that CLE squad up a bit as they played 2 great games in a row at MILW and LAC and was in the game for 3 1/2 quarters last night at GS while the Cavs were off a big let-down spot of their own...But the Bulls have benefited from a fairly easy schedule thus far...OKC is just 2-2 but have played SA, Port and ATL...I am not betting them either because it just looks too easy to me which is scaring me off a play...
I'll look at 2H lines and prepare for tomorrow's slate later tonight...
1) OKC, 2) Port
Totals:
1) OKC un, 2) Port ov
I simply don't have the guts to bet Portland tonight and didn't even have the guts to make them a #1 play...Let-down spot here for the Clips after a big win against the Spurs last night...PORT off a loss makes it even a better play and the "Old Brewers7" wouldn't hesitate to play Portland here, but I am a little gun-shy right now this early in the season...
OKC a very public play but CHI is 0-3 ATS at Home and has also played a very weak schedule thus far to "earn" that 3-1 SU record...They have not been impressive other than that blowout win at CLE which seems to have woken up that CLE squad up a bit as they played 2 great games in a row at MILW and LAC and was in the game for 3 1/2 quarters last night at GS while the Cavs were off a big let-down spot of their own...But the Bulls have benefited from a fairly easy schedule thus far...OKC is just 2-2 but have played SA, Port and ATL...I am not betting them either because it just looks too easy to me which is scaring me off a play...
I'll look at 2H lines and prepare for tomorrow's slate later tonight...
Thursday thoughts...
New rule:
I am not betting any plays when I am super-busy at work and then become rushed to make bets at the last second...
It just doesn't work...
I was swamped yesterday and had a meeting at 7:00 and it was just too hectic with 13 games on the Board, trying to decide which games to bet, so in the future, I am simply going to stalk 2nd-half lines on busy days at work with semi-big or big boards...I rushed to bet CHAR right before my meeting and when I got out of the meeting about a minute before halftime and saw them getting beat by double-digits, and then the Bkn/Mia 1Q finished as an Under, well, it took the wind right out of my sails and I didn't feel like betting anything else the rest of the night...And I usually get out of work around 9 to 9:30, but I didn't leave till after 10:30 last night due to being swamped...
Now the Brooklyn/Miami 1Q Over I had circled the day before, so I was not rushed on that play at all...No excuses there...The 1Q was the highest-scoring quarter of the game, but hey, it simply didn't make it over the total...I didn't see any of the game so I couldn't see how the flow of the game went, but the Pace did look relatively slow from the boxscore so I don't know if BKN slowed things down or whether Miami did...
We have 23 weeks left before playoffs so there will be LOTS of opportunities to make winning bets, but I need to just pass on game plays during busy days at work unless I have the play circled from the night before...I am not an action guy at all, I can pass on plays any day or multiple days and will start doing so as the busy season approaches at work...
Tonight I will stalk for 2H plays...
I lean to PORT as I expect a let-down from the Clips after dominating SA last night, but I haven't looked at the game yet...I watched most of the Orl/Chi game on TUE and CHI just did not impress me at all...ORL looked good at times against them and then they get blown out at Minny last night, so I wonder if CHI just had a bad night or whether they are severely over-rated right now without Rose?...Of couse, I watched most of the Cle/LAC 2 nights ago, too, and CLE looked spectacular, while the Clips looked bad and got outplayed...And of course, the Clips hammer SA last night and CLE got beat by GS and could not cover 6 points...
So (and I have said this before many times over the years), but sometimes, watching games can hurt you as a handicapper because you think what you see is reality, and what you see first-hand on TV can have lasting impressions, which can be bad, because the fact of the matter is you could be watching one team on an off-night and the other team might be clicking on all cylinders for one night...
So the point is to be careful not to let what you see on TV affect your basic handicapping fundamentals...Watching a lot of games on TV does NOT necessarily make you a better handicapper, but it certainly can help you gain more information by listening to what good broadcasters and color-men say during the game and you can see how some teams match up vs. others...The trick is not to let what you see on any given night influence how you handicap those teams moving forward...
Anyway, I say that because with as mediocre as CHI looked against ORL on TUE, I really don't see how they will cover vs. OKC based on that game...But I also know a different CHI team will undoubtedly show up tonight, a more motivated team, so I am staying away from this one as OKC has been inconsistent early this season and I just don't know which OKC team will show up as they continue to adjust to the Harden for K'Mart trade...
I will probably only look at 2H plays for tonight...
I am not betting any plays when I am super-busy at work and then become rushed to make bets at the last second...
It just doesn't work...
I was swamped yesterday and had a meeting at 7:00 and it was just too hectic with 13 games on the Board, trying to decide which games to bet, so in the future, I am simply going to stalk 2nd-half lines on busy days at work with semi-big or big boards...I rushed to bet CHAR right before my meeting and when I got out of the meeting about a minute before halftime and saw them getting beat by double-digits, and then the Bkn/Mia 1Q finished as an Under, well, it took the wind right out of my sails and I didn't feel like betting anything else the rest of the night...And I usually get out of work around 9 to 9:30, but I didn't leave till after 10:30 last night due to being swamped...
Now the Brooklyn/Miami 1Q Over I had circled the day before, so I was not rushed on that play at all...No excuses there...The 1Q was the highest-scoring quarter of the game, but hey, it simply didn't make it over the total...I didn't see any of the game so I couldn't see how the flow of the game went, but the Pace did look relatively slow from the boxscore so I don't know if BKN slowed things down or whether Miami did...
We have 23 weeks left before playoffs so there will be LOTS of opportunities to make winning bets, but I need to just pass on game plays during busy days at work unless I have the play circled from the night before...I am not an action guy at all, I can pass on plays any day or multiple days and will start doing so as the busy season approaches at work...
Tonight I will stalk for 2H plays...
I lean to PORT as I expect a let-down from the Clips after dominating SA last night, but I haven't looked at the game yet...I watched most of the Orl/Chi game on TUE and CHI just did not impress me at all...ORL looked good at times against them and then they get blown out at Minny last night, so I wonder if CHI just had a bad night or whether they are severely over-rated right now without Rose?...Of couse, I watched most of the Cle/LAC 2 nights ago, too, and CLE looked spectacular, while the Clips looked bad and got outplayed...And of course, the Clips hammer SA last night and CLE got beat by GS and could not cover 6 points...
So (and I have said this before many times over the years), but sometimes, watching games can hurt you as a handicapper because you think what you see is reality, and what you see first-hand on TV can have lasting impressions, which can be bad, because the fact of the matter is you could be watching one team on an off-night and the other team might be clicking on all cylinders for one night...
So the point is to be careful not to let what you see on TV affect your basic handicapping fundamentals...Watching a lot of games on TV does NOT necessarily make you a better handicapper, but it certainly can help you gain more information by listening to what good broadcasters and color-men say during the game and you can see how some teams match up vs. others...The trick is not to let what you see on any given night influence how you handicap those teams moving forward...
Anyway, I say that because with as mediocre as CHI looked against ORL on TUE, I really don't see how they will cover vs. OKC based on that game...But I also know a different CHI team will undoubtedly show up tonight, a more motivated team, so I am staying away from this one as OKC has been inconsistent early this season and I just don't know which OKC team will show up as they continue to adjust to the Harden for K'Mart trade...
I will probably only look at 2H plays for tonight...
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
WED play...
I played:
Charlotte Bobcats Pick, laying $100 to win $129...
GL...
I'll be stalking for 2H plays...
Charlotte Bobcats Pick, laying $100 to win $129...
GL...
I'll be stalking for 2H plays...
WED rankings...
Sides:
1) Cha, 2) LAC, 3) Den, 4) Tor, 5) Was, 6) Orl, 7) Memp, 8) Cle ,9) Det, 10) Atl, 11) NO, 12) Bkn, 13) Utah
Totals:
1) Den ov, 2) LAC ov, 3) Tor ov, 4) Was un, 5) Orl ov, 6) NO un, 7) Atl un, 8) Bkn ov, 9) Memp ov, 10) Det un, 11) Cle ov, 12) Cha un, 13) Utah ov
My paper charts are updated...
I like Totals better than Sides today, but we'll see what happens...Debating on what else to play tonight...Maybe CHA ML...
1) Cha, 2) LAC, 3) Den, 4) Tor, 5) Was, 6) Orl, 7) Memp, 8) Cle ,9) Det, 10) Atl, 11) NO, 12) Bkn, 13) Utah
Totals:
1) Den ov, 2) LAC ov, 3) Tor ov, 4) Was un, 5) Orl ov, 6) NO un, 7) Atl un, 8) Bkn ov, 9) Memp ov, 10) Det un, 11) Cle ov, 12) Cha un, 13) Utah ov
My paper charts are updated...
I like Totals better than Sides today, but we'll see what happens...Debating on what else to play tonight...Maybe CHA ML...
Wednesday play...
Busy day and I don't know if I'll have time to cap...
One play I had to play now that I had circled as the juice and line is FLYING upward...Vegas jacked the game total way up, too
Brooklyn/Miami Over 52.5, 1Q, laying $115 to win $100 -- Hitting 53 at a lot of places, get it now...Brooklyn flew over in the 1Q both of their games and MIA flying Over in 1Q all 3 of their Home games...
GL...
I hope to have time for Rankings...We'll see...
One play I had to play now that I had circled as the juice and line is FLYING upward...Vegas jacked the game total way up, too
Brooklyn/Miami Over 52.5, 1Q, laying $115 to win $100 -- Hitting 53 at a lot of places, get it now...Brooklyn flew over in the 1Q both of their games and MIA flying Over in 1Q all 3 of their Home games...
GL...
I hope to have time for Rankings...We'll see...
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Tuesday rankings...
Sides:
1) Den, 2) Chi, 3) Tor
Totals:
1) Chi un, 2) Den un, 3) Tor ov
Debating hard on a play on Denver, and Chicago has crept into play now...
CHI is an automatic play, taking a good team off a 33.3% or less shooting night their previous game...The Bulls' starters shot terribly last time out and have had 2 days to figure out what the heck happened in that home loss to a Davis-less Hornets' team...Public on the Dog and we all know what happens when the Public is on a DOG at a rate of around 60% or higher -- because the Public historically does NOT know how to pick Dogs...Roughly 60% of the public was on Dallas at Utah last week and how did that go?...I saw 59% on Orlando tonight...Bulls 0-2 ATS at Home, how can they possibly beat a 2-0 ORL team by double-digits, right??...Turkoglu out at least a month and Harrington out at least another week and Nelson questionable tonight...CHI will win and should cover this...
DEN should maul this horrific DET squad...If the Lakers hadn't mauled them on SUN, this would be a play for me...If this DET team has any heart at all, they'd cover this number tonight...Maybe they will, but somehow I doubt it...There were a lot of high expectations for this DEN team this season because they have "so much depth"...Coach George Karl only used 8 players in his rotation against Miami and were about 10 seconds away from winning that game, but Ray Allen's 4-point play broke their hearts...DEN will be super-motivated to get off the schnide tonight and the Nuggets may not take their foot off the pedal to insure victory #1, which will happen tonight...
1) Den, 2) Chi, 3) Tor
Totals:
1) Chi un, 2) Den un, 3) Tor ov
Debating hard on a play on Denver, and Chicago has crept into play now...
CHI is an automatic play, taking a good team off a 33.3% or less shooting night their previous game...The Bulls' starters shot terribly last time out and have had 2 days to figure out what the heck happened in that home loss to a Davis-less Hornets' team...Public on the Dog and we all know what happens when the Public is on a DOG at a rate of around 60% or higher -- because the Public historically does NOT know how to pick Dogs...Roughly 60% of the public was on Dallas at Utah last week and how did that go?...I saw 59% on Orlando tonight...Bulls 0-2 ATS at Home, how can they possibly beat a 2-0 ORL team by double-digits, right??...Turkoglu out at least a month and Harrington out at least another week and Nelson questionable tonight...CHI will win and should cover this...
DEN should maul this horrific DET squad...If the Lakers hadn't mauled them on SUN, this would be a play for me...If this DET team has any heart at all, they'd cover this number tonight...Maybe they will, but somehow I doubt it...There were a lot of high expectations for this DEN team this season because they have "so much depth"...Coach George Karl only used 8 players in his rotation against Miami and were about 10 seconds away from winning that game, but Ray Allen's 4-point play broke their hearts...DEN will be super-motivated to get off the schnide tonight and the Nuggets may not take their foot off the pedal to insure victory #1, which will happen tonight...
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)