I am playing a 4-team 13-point teaser...It is posted on the TipsterPicks site...
No straight-up bets this week...I will not touch the Eagles, although this is a PERFECT spot for them...Turnovers are killing them, so I am staying away from them until they clean that mess up...
I think I will start my teasers in earnest next week...
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Sunday, September 23, 2012
Week 3 plays...
I'll start with teasers next week...
2 plays that I talked about:
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5, laying $100 to win $100 -- I don't think Arizona scores a TD in this game...Maybe 2 or 3 or 4 FGs (depending how often Philly turns it over), but I don't see the Cardinals scoring more than 16 points (maybe a Philly turnover leads to a TD)...And I don't see Philly having a problem scoring at least 21 or 24 points (or more) if they don't turn it over...I worry that the Eagles' starting center is out as I know all the stats and history about teams not covering when their center is out, I still believe Philly is going to have a blowout win any week now...
Kansas City/New Orleans Over 53, laying $102 to win $100 -- Sometimes with games like this, games that look like a stone cold Over (like this one does), you end up with a stone Under, but I just don't see how with the way these 2 teams have played defense the first 2 weeks...I know adjustments will be made by both teams on the defensive end as they need to close the sieves their swiss-cheese defenses have been, allowing gobs of points...And the Saints can score...they should be in the 30s, without issue, as I expect them to score no less than 38, so we need the Chiefs to put up 17 and that should be more than do-able against a Saints defense that allowed 35 to Carolina last week (and we saw how Carolina did against the Giants defense on THUR -- 7 points)...I think these teams will figure it out defensively at some point this season, but indoors at the Superdome this week?...I am thinking (hoping) not...
GL...
2 plays that I talked about:
Philadelphia Eagles -3.5, laying $100 to win $100 -- I don't think Arizona scores a TD in this game...Maybe 2 or 3 or 4 FGs (depending how often Philly turns it over), but I don't see the Cardinals scoring more than 16 points (maybe a Philly turnover leads to a TD)...And I don't see Philly having a problem scoring at least 21 or 24 points (or more) if they don't turn it over...I worry that the Eagles' starting center is out as I know all the stats and history about teams not covering when their center is out, I still believe Philly is going to have a blowout win any week now...
Kansas City/New Orleans Over 53, laying $102 to win $100 -- Sometimes with games like this, games that look like a stone cold Over (like this one does), you end up with a stone Under, but I just don't see how with the way these 2 teams have played defense the first 2 weeks...I know adjustments will be made by both teams on the defensive end as they need to close the sieves their swiss-cheese defenses have been, allowing gobs of points...And the Saints can score...they should be in the 30s, without issue, as I expect them to score no less than 38, so we need the Chiefs to put up 17 and that should be more than do-able against a Saints defense that allowed 35 to Carolina last week (and we saw how Carolina did against the Giants defense on THUR -- 7 points)...I think these teams will figure it out defensively at some point this season, but indoors at the Superdome this week?...I am thinking (hoping) not...
GL...
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Week 3 glances...
I don't like to whine, but I will briefly anyway...
I have talked about 4 games so far this NFL season and they have gone 3-1, but the one game I played out of the 4 lost...Guess I should have just played all 4 because 3 of them were easy winners and the loss, the Eagles, a 2.5-point FAV when I got it, won the damn game but didn't cover 2.5...
And to be frank, that should have been a cakewalk cover...The Eagles had over 480 yards of offense and quite frankly, dominated that game from start to finish...4 more turnovers...3 in the red zone and the 4th also in Raven's territory...So many points lost on those turnovers...Maybe 24 points, 20, 16, but even 3 more garners a cover...
You just cannot handicap turnovers...That is why I stated many times before that the NFL is the toughest North American sport to handicap...
But we love this sport, so we keep trying...
The one line that I like right off the bat (well, actually a total) is the Chiefs/Saints game...The Chiefs have allowed 83 points and the Saints (maybe Aint's again this season?) haven't been much better, giving up 75 in two games...So these teams are averaging 79 points a game between them, which makes a total of 53 indoors look miniscule, to be frank...
But you know what they say, if it looks too easy, you may be falling into a trap...
Still, I am not sure how that is going to stay Under...
The G'Men go Thursday again, and I think they will lose again...Line looks kinda trappish to me, but hey, maybe it is right where it should be...I know I won't bet it though as I prefer to bet teams good teams coming off losses in the NFL, especially if they are playing teams off a big win...
Speaking of which, how about the Jets/Dolphins game?...Fits the bill to a tee...Jets have played well in Miami in recent visits in South Florida...They also just got throttled by the Steelers last week while Miami kicked the crap out of Oakland as Reggie Bush ran wild...
If the Eagles ever stop turning the ball over, they are going to murder someone...A 3-touchdown win...MArk my words...Arizona is a possible victim...They had 255 and 253 yards of offense their first 2 games and now they meet the Philly defense...Going to be a long day for former Eagle Kevin Kolb, I suspect, and I like Kolb a lot and wanted him to start over McNabb when Donovan was stinking up the field and throwing worm-burners his final couple of seasons with Philly, but when Vick came along, well, Kolb had to go...
And I think the Eagles will cover this one, as I suspect that famous trend of mine will come in this weekend...For those of you have followed me throughout the years, I am talking about the "brewers7 was on this team one game too early" trend...We'll see...
Maybe I will break out my first teaser this week, too...
I have talked about 4 games so far this NFL season and they have gone 3-1, but the one game I played out of the 4 lost...Guess I should have just played all 4 because 3 of them were easy winners and the loss, the Eagles, a 2.5-point FAV when I got it, won the damn game but didn't cover 2.5...
And to be frank, that should have been a cakewalk cover...The Eagles had over 480 yards of offense and quite frankly, dominated that game from start to finish...4 more turnovers...3 in the red zone and the 4th also in Raven's territory...So many points lost on those turnovers...Maybe 24 points, 20, 16, but even 3 more garners a cover...
You just cannot handicap turnovers...That is why I stated many times before that the NFL is the toughest North American sport to handicap...
But we love this sport, so we keep trying...
The one line that I like right off the bat (well, actually a total) is the Chiefs/Saints game...The Chiefs have allowed 83 points and the Saints (maybe Aint's again this season?) haven't been much better, giving up 75 in two games...So these teams are averaging 79 points a game between them, which makes a total of 53 indoors look miniscule, to be frank...
But you know what they say, if it looks too easy, you may be falling into a trap...
Still, I am not sure how that is going to stay Under...
The G'Men go Thursday again, and I think they will lose again...Line looks kinda trappish to me, but hey, maybe it is right where it should be...I know I won't bet it though as I prefer to bet teams good teams coming off losses in the NFL, especially if they are playing teams off a big win...
Speaking of which, how about the Jets/Dolphins game?...Fits the bill to a tee...Jets have played well in Miami in recent visits in South Florida...They also just got throttled by the Steelers last week while Miami kicked the crap out of Oakland as Reggie Bush ran wild...
If the Eagles ever stop turning the ball over, they are going to murder someone...A 3-touchdown win...MArk my words...Arizona is a possible victim...They had 255 and 253 yards of offense their first 2 games and now they meet the Philly defense...Going to be a long day for former Eagle Kevin Kolb, I suspect, and I like Kolb a lot and wanted him to start over McNabb when Donovan was stinking up the field and throwing worm-burners his final couple of seasons with Philly, but when Vick came along, well, Kolb had to go...
And I think the Eagles will cover this one, as I suspect that famous trend of mine will come in this weekend...For those of you have followed me throughout the years, I am talking about the "brewers7 was on this team one game too early" trend...We'll see...
Maybe I will break out my first teaser this week, too...
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Early looks and a play for Week 2...
A couple of spots here in Week 2 where one team looked terrible and their opponent looked great...
My general theory has always been to take the team that looked terrible the previous week vs. the team that looked great the previous week, because in the NFL (as in all major sports), you never are as good or as bad as you looked the previous week...
Let's look at the match-ups that fit the criteria for Week #2:
Chicago +5.5 at Green Bay -- THUR night game...Bears won 41-21 over Indy and the Packers lost at Home 30-22 to the 49ers...
Baltimore +2 at Philadelphia -- The Ravens dismantled the Bengals 44-13 while the Eagles turned it over 5 times and barely beat the Browns 17-16...
N.Y. Jets +6 at Pittsburgh -- Jets throttled the Bills 48-28 and the Steelers lost to the Broncos 31-19...
These are the 3 games that most fit my criteria...
The picks are all 3 home teams, giving the points...
Are they all going to win?...
Maybe...65/35 shot IMO...
Are they all going to cover the spread?...
I severely doubt it...
All 3 could win and yet only 1 might cover...The first few weeks of the NFL season can often be unpredictable...But I will take the one team that I believe is MOST likely to cover the spread...
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5, laying $105 to win $100 -- You may be asking how the Eagles even fit this criteria of playing "terrible" when they won the dang game last week...Well, let's face the facts...Philly was 9-point chalk against the Browns and yet they scored on a late drive to eke out a victory, 17-16...I live less than 2 hours from Philly and the headline in my local paper was "LUCKY"...All the talking heads on TV talked about how poorly the Eagles and Michael Vick played...Well, Vick may have played "poorly" with the 4 picks, but the Eagles defense played well and kept them in this game...The Eagles offense still pounded out over 450 yards...The Eagles "D" held the browns to 210 total yards and just 12 first downs...Ok, yeah, I know, this is the Browns and certainly not the Ravens offense, which looked spectacular in Week 1...But Cincy still gained over 320 yards on offense and out-rushed Baltimore 129 to 122...Now the question will be can Andy Reid stop throwing the damn ball so much and run it some more?...I hope so, because that will be the formula needed to beat this Ravens' team, IMO...They can throw to set up the run here...Eat clock and keep the Ravens offense off the field, not that I am deathly afraid here because the Eagles "D" should be able to put pressure on Flacco which will hopefully keep his numbers down...My biggest question is whether the Eagles are going to be able to stop the run this week...But everyone is talking about how awesome Baltimore is and how awesome Flacco and the offense are and their big win on Monday night is what has this line below 3, which to me, is value, getting the Eagles at less than 3-point chalk at Home...
This is my first NFL play of the year (Yup, should have made Dallas a pick in Week 1, but oh well)...I will look at a teaser possibility Saturday night...
GL...
My general theory has always been to take the team that looked terrible the previous week vs. the team that looked great the previous week, because in the NFL (as in all major sports), you never are as good or as bad as you looked the previous week...
Let's look at the match-ups that fit the criteria for Week #2:
Chicago +5.5 at Green Bay -- THUR night game...Bears won 41-21 over Indy and the Packers lost at Home 30-22 to the 49ers...
Baltimore +2 at Philadelphia -- The Ravens dismantled the Bengals 44-13 while the Eagles turned it over 5 times and barely beat the Browns 17-16...
N.Y. Jets +6 at Pittsburgh -- Jets throttled the Bills 48-28 and the Steelers lost to the Broncos 31-19...
These are the 3 games that most fit my criteria...
The picks are all 3 home teams, giving the points...
Are they all going to win?...
Maybe...65/35 shot IMO...
Are they all going to cover the spread?...
I severely doubt it...
All 3 could win and yet only 1 might cover...The first few weeks of the NFL season can often be unpredictable...But I will take the one team that I believe is MOST likely to cover the spread...
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5, laying $105 to win $100 -- You may be asking how the Eagles even fit this criteria of playing "terrible" when they won the dang game last week...Well, let's face the facts...Philly was 9-point chalk against the Browns and yet they scored on a late drive to eke out a victory, 17-16...I live less than 2 hours from Philly and the headline in my local paper was "LUCKY"...All the talking heads on TV talked about how poorly the Eagles and Michael Vick played...Well, Vick may have played "poorly" with the 4 picks, but the Eagles defense played well and kept them in this game...The Eagles offense still pounded out over 450 yards...The Eagles "D" held the browns to 210 total yards and just 12 first downs...Ok, yeah, I know, this is the Browns and certainly not the Ravens offense, which looked spectacular in Week 1...But Cincy still gained over 320 yards on offense and out-rushed Baltimore 129 to 122...Now the question will be can Andy Reid stop throwing the damn ball so much and run it some more?...I hope so, because that will be the formula needed to beat this Ravens' team, IMO...They can throw to set up the run here...Eat clock and keep the Ravens offense off the field, not that I am deathly afraid here because the Eagles "D" should be able to put pressure on Flacco which will hopefully keep his numbers down...My biggest question is whether the Eagles are going to be able to stop the run this week...But everyone is talking about how awesome Baltimore is and how awesome Flacco and the offense are and their big win on Monday night is what has this line below 3, which to me, is value, getting the Eagles at less than 3-point chalk at Home...
This is my first NFL play of the year (Yup, should have made Dallas a pick in Week 1, but oh well)...I will look at a teaser possibility Saturday night...
GL...
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
NFL season here already??...Damn...It's On...
Depending on how much I get into this NFL season, I may average a play a week...
Maybe...
Maybe not...
I will probably just look for the best possible situational spots and go for those...
And oh by the way, I generally will play one 4-team, 13-point teaser a week...Been doing it for almost 20 years now...
But Week 1 is generally not a good week to start these...Surprises all over the place generally...Even Week 2 and Week 3 aren't super-strong, value-wise, as these teasers get more value as the lines get tighter...
I'll look at the games week by week and we'll see...
For Wednesday night, all I know is, it usually is hard for a defending SuperBowl champion to come out swinging right out of the gate the following season...
I don't have the numbers and I don't have the time to look them up, but with the G'Men facing a divisional foe right out of the gate, I will admit that I like the points with Dallas...
I would say take Dallas or don't take the game...
If I make this an official play, I will post it here and on the ThinkDog Forum and have it put on the Tracker site...
I may pass and look at a 4-team teaser for Sunday...
We'll see...
Maybe...
Maybe not...
I will probably just look for the best possible situational spots and go for those...
And oh by the way, I generally will play one 4-team, 13-point teaser a week...Been doing it for almost 20 years now...
But Week 1 is generally not a good week to start these...Surprises all over the place generally...Even Week 2 and Week 3 aren't super-strong, value-wise, as these teasers get more value as the lines get tighter...
I'll look at the games week by week and we'll see...
For Wednesday night, all I know is, it usually is hard for a defending SuperBowl champion to come out swinging right out of the gate the following season...
I don't have the numbers and I don't have the time to look them up, but with the G'Men facing a divisional foe right out of the gate, I will admit that I like the points with Dallas...
I would say take Dallas or don't take the game...
If I make this an official play, I will post it here and on the ThinkDog Forum and have it put on the Tracker site...
I may pass and look at a 4-team teaser for Sunday...
We'll see...
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