Detroit Pistons +10, laying $100 to win $101 -- I am going to take the team playing significantly better their last 8 games compared to their first 8 and I already talked about the look-ahead spot for Memphis as they play the Spurs tomorrow...2 scenarios likely here which is why I bet it and that is that the pistons stay with them from start to finish and then Memphis comes up clutch down the stretch and wins by 5 or 6, or Detroit hangs around for a while, Memphis pulls ahead by about 15 or 16, pulls their starters to rest them a little bit longer than normal with the Spurs' game tomorrow and Detroit works their way back to back-door the number...Of course, Memphis could just murder them from start to finish, but I'll take the points here in this spot just about every time...
GL...
Friday, November 30, 2012
Friday rankings...
Sides:
1) Det, 2) Den, 3) Utah, 4) Min, 5) Sac, 6) Cle, 7) Char, 8) Phoe, 9) Was, 10) Orl, 11) Bos
Totals:
1) Bos un, 2) Phoe un, 3) Sac un, 4) Was ov, 5) Orl un, 6) Det un, 7) Den ov, 8) Min ov, 9) Cle un, 10) Char un, 11) Utah un
Not sure if I will bet anything tonight, but if do it will be my top 2 Sides...I have another 90 minutes to decide...
As much as I liked all 11 sides on WED, I don't like nearly as many tonight...Top 5, maybe 6, I like and not much after that...
The Denver/LA Lakers game has 3 fairly strong trends clashing here...2 against Denver and 1 against LAL and then you throw in the fact that DEN is 4-0 ATS on the back-end of back-to-backs, now it is 2 for and 2 against and I probably should just lay off the game, but I almost want to take a stab at Denver due to all of the problems the Lakers are having to start this season...
Rondo being out the reason I like the Under in Boston, but I am not playing any totals tonight...
If I play Detroit, I will post it in the next hour...Look-ahead game for Memphis as they have SA tomorrow and Detroit, after an 0-8 start, has actually gone 5-3 their last 8 including an 18-point win in Philly, a 20-point win vs. Boston, and a 40-point win last time out vs. Phoenix...They are playing much better, although this is an obviously a step-up in class here...However, they have played OKC twice this season and covered both games against them...
1) Det, 2) Den, 3) Utah, 4) Min, 5) Sac, 6) Cle, 7) Char, 8) Phoe, 9) Was, 10) Orl, 11) Bos
Totals:
1) Bos un, 2) Phoe un, 3) Sac un, 4) Was ov, 5) Orl un, 6) Det un, 7) Den ov, 8) Min ov, 9) Cle un, 10) Char un, 11) Utah un
Not sure if I will bet anything tonight, but if do it will be my top 2 Sides...I have another 90 minutes to decide...
As much as I liked all 11 sides on WED, I don't like nearly as many tonight...Top 5, maybe 6, I like and not much after that...
The Denver/LA Lakers game has 3 fairly strong trends clashing here...2 against Denver and 1 against LAL and then you throw in the fact that DEN is 4-0 ATS on the back-end of back-to-backs, now it is 2 for and 2 against and I probably should just lay off the game, but I almost want to take a stab at Denver due to all of the problems the Lakers are having to start this season...
Rondo being out the reason I like the Under in Boston, but I am not playing any totals tonight...
If I play Detroit, I will post it in the next hour...Look-ahead game for Memphis as they have SA tomorrow and Detroit, after an 0-8 start, has actually gone 5-3 their last 8 including an 18-point win in Philly, a 20-point win vs. Boston, and a 40-point win last time out vs. Phoenix...They are playing much better, although this is an obviously a step-up in class here...However, they have played OKC twice this season and covered both games against them...
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Thursday rankings...
Sides:
1) Mia, 2) GS
Total:
1) Mia ov, 2) GS un
Already mentioned that when Popovich sat their "Big 3" on a back-ender in PORT last season in FEB, the Spurs lost by 40, by a 137-97 count...Miami can name their score here tonight as this may look like a Preseason game at some point if the Heat get up by 20 to 25 and pull their starters...
Denver and GS already playing for the 3rd time this season and we have a short revenge spot here as the Nuggets just beat the Warriors 6 days ago at Denver...DEN also beat GS in double-OT at GS 2 weeks before that, a game that GS had in the bag multiple times late in regulation and late in the 1st OT, but missed FTs and turnovers cost them in that one...
Both games were easy Unders in regulation time, but obviously, with the 2 OTs at GS, the game did get Over the game total during the 2nd OT in that one...
DEN has covered 5 straight and 10 of 13, but I like GS with 4 days rest and double-revenge...
1) Mia, 2) GS
Total:
1) Mia ov, 2) GS un
Already mentioned that when Popovich sat their "Big 3" on a back-ender in PORT last season in FEB, the Spurs lost by 40, by a 137-97 count...Miami can name their score here tonight as this may look like a Preseason game at some point if the Heat get up by 20 to 25 and pull their starters...
Denver and GS already playing for the 3rd time this season and we have a short revenge spot here as the Nuggets just beat the Warriors 6 days ago at Denver...DEN also beat GS in double-OT at GS 2 weeks before that, a game that GS had in the bag multiple times late in regulation and late in the 1st OT, but missed FTs and turnovers cost them in that one...
Both games were easy Unders in regulation time, but obviously, with the 2 OTs at GS, the game did get Over the game total during the 2nd OT in that one...
DEN has covered 5 straight and 10 of 13, but I like GS with 4 days rest and double-revenge...
Thursday play...
Miami Heat -13, laying $200 to win $210 -- First 2-unit play of the year...This Spurs' team is not only without Parker, Duncan & Ginobili, but Jackson & Leonard have been out for about a week...And remember last season, Popovich sat these 3 on 2/21 on a back-ender at Portland after beating Utah the night before and it was a 3rd-game in 4 nights situation...The Blazers beat them 137-97...I already talked about how rested Miami is for this one...The Heat should accidentally win this one by 20...
GL...
GL...
Popovich at it again...
I liked Miami a lot today as this was a tough situational
spot for the Spurs (more on that later) and the line was 5.5 all day...As I was
getting ready to bet it, the game goes off the Board and I look around and find
out why:
Duncan, Parker and Ginobili are not playing tonight...
Man I wish I would have bet it as I'd be laughing at -5.5
or -6 after the line just jumped to 12 and is still going up...It'll hit 13 for
sure...
Now why are they sitting?...
My take:
Unless all 3 caught an overnight flu bug at the same
time, I would bet my life that Popovich probably is:
1) resting the "old" guys on the back-end of a
back-to-back
and
2) and MORE IMPORTANTLY --- Pop is also sending a message
to the league schedule-makers that if you are going to put 2 elite teams like
the Spurs and Heat on a Nationally televised game on TNT in prime-time with no
other game in the league going at that time, then hey idiots, maybe you should
level the playing field and make this a little bit more fair because the Spurs
are playing their 4th game in 5 days and Miami has 4 days rest coming into this
game...Not to mention that this is the Spurs 6th road game in 9 days while it
will only be Miami's 3rd game in 12 days and Miami has been Home all this time...
Classic Popovich...
Making a statement to the league that if you aren't going
to be fair with us, then screw you, we ain't going to be fair in return and
we'll just give Miami this game and kill your TNT ratings as this should game
be over with at halftime...Be hard for Miami to even get up for this one now
themselves...
This is a big game for TNT and the league...And Popovich
is basically saying tough crap, it's not a big game for us, we just won the
first 5 games of this road trip and we'll wait and maybe play them at full
strength when they come to San Antonio...
The thing here is this:
Look at the schedule and if the Spurs have a back-to-back
coming up or a 4-in-5 coming up, watch carefully who plays what games, because
Popovich will sit any combination of these 3 players on a back-ender so if you
are already liking the Spurs opponent on the overnight line, go ahead and bet
them and beat Popovich to the punch in case he sits any combination of these 3
guys the rest of the season...
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Wednesday plays...
Played the 3 games I mentioned...
Washington Wizards Pick, laying $100 to win $136...
Charlotte Hornets +9, laying $100 to win $100...
Houston/Oklahoma City Under 209, laying $100 to win $105...
Busy day, no time to type analysis...
GL...
Washington Wizards Pick, laying $100 to win $136...
Charlotte Hornets +9, laying $100 to win $100...
Houston/Oklahoma City Under 209, laying $100 to win $105...
Busy day, no time to type analysis...
GL...
Wednesday Rankings...
Sides:
1) Was, 2) Char, 3) Tor, 4) Min, 5) Det, 6) Hou, 7) Bos, 8) NY, 9) Orl, 10) Utah, 11) Chi
Totals:
1) Hou un, 2) Was ov, 3) Bos un, 4) NY ov, 5) Chi un, 6) Orl ov, 7) Char un, 8) Tor un, 9) Min un, 10) Utah ov, 11) Det un
Busy day...
I like my sides and I like my top 5 or so totals...
Not sure what to bet yet, thinking about Wizards, Bobcats and maybe that Houston under, although I may continue to pass on totals for now...
1) Was, 2) Char, 3) Tor, 4) Min, 5) Det, 6) Hou, 7) Bos, 8) NY, 9) Orl, 10) Utah, 11) Chi
Totals:
1) Hou un, 2) Was ov, 3) Bos un, 4) NY ov, 5) Chi un, 6) Orl ov, 7) Char un, 8) Tor un, 9) Min un, 10) Utah ov, 11) Det un
Busy day...
I like my sides and I like my top 5 or so totals...
Not sure what to bet yet, thinking about Wizards, Bobcats and maybe that Houston under, although I may continue to pass on totals for now...
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
Tuesday play...
Sacramento Kings -2, laying $100 to win $113 -- Kings were a 1-point dog a few hours ago and are now favored by 1 (I sold a point to get the positive juice)...I already mentioned 2 chart-plays falling the Kings way on the same game and how Minny is still scrambling a bit to make their rotations work since re-acclimating Love, Pekovic & Barea back into their lineup...Minny will turn it around, but I have to play out the chart-play till the end before I start taking them again...
GL...
GL...
Tuesday rankings...
Sides:
1) Sac, 2) Pho, 3) Tor, 4) Ind, 5) Dal
Totals:
1) Sac ov, 2) Ind un, 3) Pho ov, 4) Tor ov, 5) Dal un
Not sure if I will bet any totals tonight, but I will play Sacramento as this is a double-chart play (one chart-play to play SAC and the other to fade Minny)...I need to finish my database soon so I can back-test how a double-spot like this does historically)...Bottom line is SAC is playing better than they did the first 3 weeks of the season and Minny is still trying to hash out their new rotations since Kevin Love returned to the lineup as they have lost 3 straight since his return, haven't covered any of those games, and have had horrible 2nd halves those 3 games, scoring 36, 40 and 34 points in their last 3 games for stone Unders on the their 2H team total and all 3 overall 2H totals also stayed Under...
Kobe has the flu, so if he is OUT, I like the Under more than taking Indy as the Lakers can maybe rise up for one game without Kobe, but it will be tough when you take his 27 PPG, 5 assists, 5 rebounds and leadership off the floor with Nash already out...
1) Sac, 2) Pho, 3) Tor, 4) Ind, 5) Dal
Totals:
1) Sac ov, 2) Ind un, 3) Pho ov, 4) Tor ov, 5) Dal un
Not sure if I will bet any totals tonight, but I will play Sacramento as this is a double-chart play (one chart-play to play SAC and the other to fade Minny)...I need to finish my database soon so I can back-test how a double-spot like this does historically)...Bottom line is SAC is playing better than they did the first 3 weeks of the season and Minny is still trying to hash out their new rotations since Kevin Love returned to the lineup as they have lost 3 straight since his return, haven't covered any of those games, and have had horrible 2nd halves those 3 games, scoring 36, 40 and 34 points in their last 3 games for stone Unders on the their 2H team total and all 3 overall 2H totals also stayed Under...
Kobe has the flu, so if he is OUT, I like the Under more than taking Indy as the Lakers can maybe rise up for one game without Kobe, but it will be tough when you take his 27 PPG, 5 assists, 5 rebounds and leadership off the floor with Nash already out...
Monday, November 26, 2012
Monday rankings...
Sides:
1) NO, 2) Den, 3) Milw, 4) Was, 5) Bkn, 6) Char, 7) Det, 8) Cle
Totals:
1) Bkn ov, 2) Char ov, 3) Det un, 4) Cle ov, 5) NO ov, 6) Den un, 7) Milw un, 8) Was un
I don't like a lot tonight other than this Knicks Over...The Hornets have a chart-play tonight, but they may be going into a Hornet's nest of a different variety as they play a Clippers team that has lost 3 straight...
1) NO, 2) Den, 3) Milw, 4) Was, 5) Bkn, 6) Char, 7) Det, 8) Cle
Totals:
1) Bkn ov, 2) Char ov, 3) Det un, 4) Cle ov, 5) NO ov, 6) Den un, 7) Milw un, 8) Was un
I don't like a lot tonight other than this Knicks Over...The Hornets have a chart-play tonight, but they may be going into a Hornet's nest of a different variety as they play a Clippers team that has lost 3 straight...
Monday play...
New York/New Jersey Over 194, laying $100 to win $103 -- I thought for a split second about a trend that I have talked about a lot over the years, the trend I made up that "brewers7 was on a side or total one game too early" and thought for maybe a split second about taking the Knicks Under tonight...But I also said to myself last night that with the way the Knicks are laying right now, I have to take any Knicks total less than 200 Over...Brooklyn may and undoubtedly will try and control the pace tonight, but they will get sucked into the Knicks' pace for spells during this game...The Knicks' pace has been insane the last 3 games...Too insane for any total less than 200...If both teams shoot bad and the Nets can somehow force NY into a half-court game, well, hey, ok, this will be an Under and I will lose the bet and we move on to the next play...But I will be on Knicks' Overs until they change their style of play or until Vegas catches up and over-adjusts these NY totals...Right now, Vegas is still in catch-up mode as they have not adjusted quick enough IMO...I will probably sprinkle a smaller 1Q Over in tonight, too...
GL...
GL...
Sunday, November 25, 2012
Sunday rankings and thoughts...
Play already posted below, & that total is moving down, down, down, glad I grabbed it on the overnight...
Sides:
1) Phi, 2) NO, 3) Bos, 4) Tor, 5) Port, 6) NY
Totals:
1) NY un, 2) Port un, 3) Tor un, 4) Phi ov, 5) NO ov, 6) Bos un
First day in a while where I am not crazy about any Sides (which means I'll probably go 3-0 with my top 3 and 5-1 overall)...
I am surprised by the total lack of respect the Hornets are getting...They are 4-1 ATS on the Road with their only loss being in OT when they got 7.5 and lost by 8 (and that line was 8 most of the day, so many people pushed that line)...I don't care who is hurt for them, they have a good coach and that alone will get you at least 5 extra covers a season...Denver is hitting their stride and can mangle them tonight, but you're just not going to see me lay 10 against a team that has played this hard and this well on the Road...Later in the season, if the Hornets slide out of the playoff race and have a tough situational spot against an elite team and are getting double-digits, THEN I may take the FAV, but not now...Doesn't mean the Nuggets can't beat them by 20 though...
I'll be curious to see how these top 3 totals go today...All 6 teams are 19th or worse in the league in FG% allowed currently, which would seemingly point to the Over in all 3 games...
Det is 19th and NY is 20th...
SA 23rd and Tor 25th...
Bkn 26th and Port last at 30th...
And SA, NY, BKN and PORT are all shooting in the top 15 in FG%, so the "afternoon Under" trend will be put to the test today...I still think 2 out of these 3 will probably go Over, but I am contractually obligated by my own Handicapping Bible to pick all 3 Under...I feel the Pistons/Knicks game has the best shot to go Under with the Knicks' recent proclivity to stay Under at MSG in the afternoons and I feel strongly that the embarrassment of the last 2 Knicks' losses (especially on the defensive end) will push this team to actually give an effort on the defensive end and I feel there could be a blowout here, and if that happens and NY can somehow keep this team in the 70s or low 80s, then the Knicks can score 100 to 105 and it will still stay Under...
Sides:
1) Phi, 2) NO, 3) Bos, 4) Tor, 5) Port, 6) NY
Totals:
1) NY un, 2) Port un, 3) Tor un, 4) Phi ov, 5) NO ov, 6) Bos un
First day in a while where I am not crazy about any Sides (which means I'll probably go 3-0 with my top 3 and 5-1 overall)...
I am surprised by the total lack of respect the Hornets are getting...They are 4-1 ATS on the Road with their only loss being in OT when they got 7.5 and lost by 8 (and that line was 8 most of the day, so many people pushed that line)...I don't care who is hurt for them, they have a good coach and that alone will get you at least 5 extra covers a season...Denver is hitting their stride and can mangle them tonight, but you're just not going to see me lay 10 against a team that has played this hard and this well on the Road...Later in the season, if the Hornets slide out of the playoff race and have a tough situational spot against an elite team and are getting double-digits, THEN I may take the FAV, but not now...Doesn't mean the Nuggets can't beat them by 20 though...
I'll be curious to see how these top 3 totals go today...All 6 teams are 19th or worse in the league in FG% allowed currently, which would seemingly point to the Over in all 3 games...
Det is 19th and NY is 20th...
SA 23rd and Tor 25th...
Bkn 26th and Port last at 30th...
And SA, NY, BKN and PORT are all shooting in the top 15 in FG%, so the "afternoon Under" trend will be put to the test today...I still think 2 out of these 3 will probably go Over, but I am contractually obligated by my own Handicapping Bible to pick all 3 Under...I feel the Pistons/Knicks game has the best shot to go Under with the Knicks' recent proclivity to stay Under at MSG in the afternoons and I feel strongly that the embarrassment of the last 2 Knicks' losses (especially on the defensive end) will push this team to actually give an effort on the defensive end and I feel there could be a blowout here, and if that happens and NY can somehow keep this team in the 70s or low 80s, then the Knicks can score 100 to 105 and it will still stay Under...
Sunday play...
I have 3 automatic plays today, but I am a little skeptical about how these 3 will do...May be a 1-2 day...These afternoon Unders are 6-1 so far this season and were 3-0 last Sunday, BUT the Overs are 23-10-1 the last 34 games this week as there has been a rise in scoring (and OT games, for that matter) lately...
I am going to pick the 1:05 game that is most likely to go Over (hope I am not wrong), and then I will look at the 3:05 game as I'll have 3 quarters and some change in the books on the early games...
Detroit/New York Under 192, laying $109 to win $100 -- Could not get positive juice on the overnight line and this line is going down at some Books already...So since I could not get plus-juice, I did not sell a point as that was still negative juice (barely)...The Knicks couldn't stop Dallas on WED, giving up 114 to the Dirk-less Mavs in Dallas...Then the coup de grâce on Friday, a humiliating loss to Houston last time out where the Knicks could not stop the Rockets' cheerleaders from scoring, giving up a league-high 131 points in regulation time...I would hope the embarrassment of that game will be enough to propel this team to try and play a little defense Sunday at MSG against the 26th ranked offense (in terms of PPG) of the Pistons...Last Sunday at MSG, the Knicks held Indiana (currently ranked 27th in PPG) to 39% shooting and 76 points...I expect more of the same today from the Knicks defense, whose defensive numbers are dropping like a lead balloon on the league stat page this week...The Knicks will be hungry to end their 2-game losing streak and they know the best way to do that is to turn the heat on defensively...The Knicks started last season with 4 straight Unders on early afternoon games at MSG and I hope they can do that again to start this season...
Since Toronto played in the only afternoon Over game this season (on a Saturday at Boston, with a high-scoring 2H as it was an easy Under in the 1H), I am a bit wary of taking them Under against SA, whose offense seems to be clicking a bit lately...Their last couple head-to-head meetings were high-scoring affairs, too, so since I don't believe both of the 1:00 games will go Under) although they could), I am choosing the DET/NY game as the one MOST likely to cash on the Under...
GL...
Top 3 totals for Sunday are:
1) NY un, 2) Bkn un, 3) Tor un
I am going to pick the 1:05 game that is most likely to go Over (hope I am not wrong), and then I will look at the 3:05 game as I'll have 3 quarters and some change in the books on the early games...
Detroit/New York Under 192, laying $109 to win $100 -- Could not get positive juice on the overnight line and this line is going down at some Books already...So since I could not get plus-juice, I did not sell a point as that was still negative juice (barely)...The Knicks couldn't stop Dallas on WED, giving up 114 to the Dirk-less Mavs in Dallas...Then the coup de grâce on Friday, a humiliating loss to Houston last time out where the Knicks could not stop the Rockets' cheerleaders from scoring, giving up a league-high 131 points in regulation time...I would hope the embarrassment of that game will be enough to propel this team to try and play a little defense Sunday at MSG against the 26th ranked offense (in terms of PPG) of the Pistons...Last Sunday at MSG, the Knicks held Indiana (currently ranked 27th in PPG) to 39% shooting and 76 points...I expect more of the same today from the Knicks defense, whose defensive numbers are dropping like a lead balloon on the league stat page this week...The Knicks will be hungry to end their 2-game losing streak and they know the best way to do that is to turn the heat on defensively...The Knicks started last season with 4 straight Unders on early afternoon games at MSG and I hope they can do that again to start this season...
Since Toronto played in the only afternoon Over game this season (on a Saturday at Boston, with a high-scoring 2H as it was an easy Under in the 1H), I am a bit wary of taking them Under against SA, whose offense seems to be clicking a bit lately...Their last couple head-to-head meetings were high-scoring affairs, too, so since I don't believe both of the 1:00 games will go Under) although they could), I am choosing the DET/NY game as the one MOST likely to cash on the Under...
GL...
Top 3 totals for Sunday are:
1) NY un, 2) Bkn un, 3) Tor un
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Rankings...
Sides:
1) Sac, 2) LAL, 3) Was, 4) Atl, 5) GS, 6) Mia, 7) Phi, 8) Milw
Totals:
1) Mia ov, 2) GS ov, 3) Sac un, 4) LAL ov, 5) Atl un, 6) Phi ov, 7) Was un, 8) Milw ov
Not sure if I am betting anything else other than 2H plays although the Lakers and Wiz look tempting as WASH looks for their first win and the Lakers look for their 1st road win and have a payback spot here...
1) Sac, 2) LAL, 3) Was, 4) Atl, 5) GS, 6) Mia, 7) Phi, 8) Milw
Totals:
1) Mia ov, 2) GS ov, 3) Sac un, 4) LAL ov, 5) Atl un, 6) Phi ov, 7) Was un, 8) Milw ov
Not sure if I am betting anything else other than 2H plays although the Lakers and Wiz look tempting as WASH looks for their first win and the Lakers look for their 1st road win and have a payback spot here...
Saturday play...
Sacramento Kings Pick, laying $100 to win $102 -- Line coming down all day, so this will be my last shot at positive juice unless I want to give points...SAC getting 1.5 right now...If at first you don't succeed, try, try again and that is the situation with the Kings tonight in the back-end of this home-and-home match-up...The Kings led virtually the entire game last night before losing on the final possession as Gordon Hayward got loose at the top of they key to hit the game-winning shot with less than 5 seconds left for the victory...The Kings led by double-digits earlier n the 4Q...So it's not like the Kings cannot win this game...They should have won at Utah last night, a venue where the Jazz are 5-0 this season...Chart-play still to play the Kings and although they have not been stellar at Home (3-4 SU), the Jazz have been subpar on the Road, to be kind, at 2-6 with their only wins coming at 3-10 Toronto (in triple-OT) and Washington (0-10 on the season)...The last 3 games between these 2 teams have been decided by 2 points or less...SAC is on even-footing with the Jazz at Home and I look for them to exact revenge on Utah and finish tonight what they could not last night...
GL...
Also, when I make plays, I often sell 1 to 1.5 points on the totals and sides...Every now and then it will cost me a win and last night was the first time it happened all season...But I just looked back at all the plus-juice I won all season while selling points and I am still well ahead after taking that tough beat last night...I know that most of the people reading this got the total at 197.5 and that's perfect and a few of you got it at 198, and well, a push is better than a loss, but I am all about grabbing as much value as I can with every play...At the end of the season, if selling points cost me money in the long run, then I may cut back on how many points I sell, we'll see...All depends on what the numbers show as the season progresses...
GL...
Also, when I make plays, I often sell 1 to 1.5 points on the totals and sides...Every now and then it will cost me a win and last night was the first time it happened all season...But I just looked back at all the plus-juice I won all season while selling points and I am still well ahead after taking that tough beat last night...I know that most of the people reading this got the total at 197.5 and that's perfect and a few of you got it at 198, and well, a push is better than a loss, but I am all about grabbing as much value as I can with every play...At the end of the season, if selling points cost me money in the long run, then I may cut back on how many points I sell, we'll see...All depends on what the numbers show as the season progresses...
Friday, November 23, 2012
Friday plays...
San Antonio/Indiana over 192, laying $100 to win $103 -- A chart-play to stick with the Over on Indy and we know that SA can have an Over on any given night...Indy the top defensive team in the league in terms of FG% allowed, but I think that will start to fall off and that number will "return to the mean" and you'll see more Overs in Indy games...
Minnesota at Portland, over 199, laying $100 to win $107 -- Kevin Love being back means more points, more points, more points for Minny and remember that Barea and Pekovic very recently returned for Minny so expect their points to go up...And they happen to be playing the worst defensive team in the league (in terms of FG% allowed) and PORT is 4-2 to the Over at Home, so I see this game getting to 205 without too much of an issue...
Sacramento Kings +8, laying $100 to win $111 -- Another chart-play here as SAC went 9 games before covering a spread with their win against the Lakers last time out...It was a NC2, Push, then a NC6 before that win over the Lake-Show...Utah can blow anyone out at any time at Home, and are 4-0 SU & ATS this season at Home, but they have had favorable spots in at least 3 of those wins and I think SAC can take this down to the final possession or 2...
I am going to play the Lakers small as there is a strong chart-play to fade Memphis tonight, and the only reason I don't take the Lake-Show for a regular-sized bet is because of their early-season struggles and coaching changes...But I cannot ignore a strong chart-play without having something on the Lakers and the ML...
GL...
Minnesota at Portland, over 199, laying $100 to win $107 -- Kevin Love being back means more points, more points, more points for Minny and remember that Barea and Pekovic very recently returned for Minny so expect their points to go up...And they happen to be playing the worst defensive team in the league (in terms of FG% allowed) and PORT is 4-2 to the Over at Home, so I see this game getting to 205 without too much of an issue...
Sacramento Kings +8, laying $100 to win $111 -- Another chart-play here as SAC went 9 games before covering a spread with their win against the Lakers last time out...It was a NC2, Push, then a NC6 before that win over the Lake-Show...Utah can blow anyone out at any time at Home, and are 4-0 SU & ATS this season at Home, but they have had favorable spots in at least 3 of those wins and I think SAC can take this down to the final possession or 2...
I am going to play the Lakers small as there is a strong chart-play to fade Memphis tonight, and the only reason I don't take the Lake-Show for a regular-sized bet is because of their early-season struggles and coaching changes...But I cannot ignore a strong chart-play without having something on the Lakers and the ML...
GL...
Friday Rankings...
Sides:
1) Sac, 2) LAL, 3) NO, 4) Min, 5) Bkn, 6) SA, 7) OKC, 8) GS, 9) Hou, 10) Det, 11) Atl, 12) Cle
Totals:
1) Min ov, 2) SA ov, 3) Cle un, 4) Bkn ov, 5) OKC ov, 6) Hou ov, 7) LAL ov, 8) NO ov, 9) Sac un, 10) GS un, 11) Det un, 12 Atl ov
I like my top 2 totals and like some sides, so I will sort out the bets in the next 30 minutes...
Probably betting SAC, despite Utah being 4-0 SU and ATS at Home...
More to come...
1) Sac, 2) LAL, 3) NO, 4) Min, 5) Bkn, 6) SA, 7) OKC, 8) GS, 9) Hou, 10) Det, 11) Atl, 12) Cle
Totals:
1) Min ov, 2) SA ov, 3) Cle un, 4) Bkn ov, 5) OKC ov, 6) Hou ov, 7) LAL ov, 8) NO ov, 9) Sac un, 10) GS un, 11) Det un, 12 Atl ov
I like my top 2 totals and like some sides, so I will sort out the bets in the next 30 minutes...
Probably betting SAC, despite Utah being 4-0 SU and ATS at Home...
More to come...
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Total play...
Milwaukee/Miami Over 204, laying $100 to win $103 -- I am also playing Milw/Mia over 1Q as I think these 2 teams will be flying out of the gate and I think the PACE here is going to be super-quick...Not sure how MILW is going to stop Miami from getting shots, LOTS of shots, so all the Heat have to do is make (I know, easier said then done)...Miami has 7 straight 1Q Unders...They are 3-1 to the Over in the 1Q at Home and this is their first game Home after a 6-game Road trip...They have had 3 days rest for this one and I feel strongly that we will have a 1Q and 1H Over (fairly easily) which should be enough to carry the game total over...
GL...
GL...
Totals rankings...
Totals:
1) Milw ov, 2) NO ov, 3) NY ov, 4) Port ov, 5) Cle ov, 6) Sac ov, 7) Den ov, 8) Tor ov, 9) Det un, 10) SA un, 11) Bkn ov, 12) LAC ov, 13) Chi un, 14) Was un
1) Milw ov, 2) NO ov, 3) NY ov, 4) Port ov, 5) Cle ov, 6) Sac ov, 7) Den ov, 8) Tor ov, 9) Det un, 10) SA un, 11) Bkn ov, 12) LAC ov, 13) Chi un, 14) Was un
WED play...
Denver Nuggets -4, laying $100 to win $104 -- I realize this is a huge public play...I don't care...There is no stat anywhere that says the public wins 0% of the time...The puclic wins anywhere from 40% to 50% of the time and to me, they will be right tonight on this Denver play...Still a small-chart play to fade Minny...The T'Wolves have Barea and Pekovic back tonight and Denver is under-achieving big-time until this upset win over Memphis last time out...Let-down spot for Denver?...I don't think so...I am thinking this win over the Grizz has the potential to get the Nuggets on track...DEN is one-game under .500 and believe me when I say because I have played team sports all my life, players talk about "getting to .500" when the opportunity presents itself...The Nuggets can get to 6-6 with a win tonight and that is why I feel that this win over MEMP is more of a "spring-board" win, rather than a win that sets up a let-down spot...Minny getting 2 guys back tonight means some rotation adjustments, but I feel that this Denver team is on the verge of breaking out of their early-season slump...
GL...
Kind of like Toronto, too as they are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS on the back-end of back-to-backs this season and all 3 of their wins this season have come on back-enders...Yes, the Raptors are playing their 4th game in 5 days, but they already covered a 4-of-5 game at DAL earlier in the season...Might be worth a ML play...
Rankings for Sides, totals to come:
Sides:
1) Den, 2) Tor, 3) NO, 4) SA, 5) LAC, 6) NY, 7) Det, 8) Cle, 9) Milw, 10) Port, 11) Bkn, 12) Sac, 13) Was, 14) Chi
GL...
Kind of like Toronto, too as they are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS on the back-end of back-to-backs this season and all 3 of their wins this season have come on back-enders...Yes, the Raptors are playing their 4th game in 5 days, but they already covered a 4-of-5 game at DAL earlier in the season...Might be worth a ML play...
Rankings for Sides, totals to come:
Sides:
1) Den, 2) Tor, 3) NO, 4) SA, 5) LAC, 6) NY, 7) Det, 8) Cle, 9) Milw, 10) Port, 11) Bkn, 12) Sac, 13) Was, 14) Chi
Tuesday, November 20, 2012
Tuesday looks & rankings...
Doubt if I play anything today as I will look at 2H plays...Only play that kind of jumps out at first-blush is Brooklyn/LA Lakers Over 1Q as the Lakers are flying over the 1Q's since D'Antono was announced as the new coach and I watched both games in their entirety and Gasol is not hesitating to shoot now if he is open...2 games ago vs. PHOE he was wide open from the exact spot on the floor about 18 feet away 5 times in a row and he did not hesitate at all and swished all 5 shots in the 1Q...The Lakers are putting up a lot more shots since D'Antoni was announced as the new coach and have come out of the gate flying...
My only worry about this 1Q Over bet is Brooklyn is 3-0 to the Under in the 1Q on the Road, while they are 5-0 to the Over in the 1Q at Home...Kind of like Miami, who hasn't gone Over yet in 7 Road games in the 1Q, while flying Over in 3 of their 4 Home games and their only Under in the 1Q at Home was against Brooklyn (although it wasn't by much)...
So that 1Q Over at Staples is the only play I am considering right now (although Vegas did jack it up a bit -- 54)...I will look for 2H plays...I am just not crazy about this Board...I want to take New Orleans and the moneyline, but the only 2 games they didn't cover were at Home and those were blowouts...
Sides:
1) Tor, 2) Bkn, 3) NO
Totals:
1) Bkn ov, 2) NO un, 3) Tor ov
My only worry about this 1Q Over bet is Brooklyn is 3-0 to the Under in the 1Q on the Road, while they are 5-0 to the Over in the 1Q at Home...Kind of like Miami, who hasn't gone Over yet in 7 Road games in the 1Q, while flying Over in 3 of their 4 Home games and their only Under in the 1Q at Home was against Brooklyn (although it wasn't by much)...
So that 1Q Over at Staples is the only play I am considering right now (although Vegas did jack it up a bit -- 54)...I will look for 2H plays...I am just not crazy about this Board...I want to take New Orleans and the moneyline, but the only 2 games they didn't cover were at Home and those were blowouts...
Sides:
1) Tor, 2) Bkn, 3) NO
Totals:
1) Bkn ov, 2) NO un, 3) Tor ov
Monday, November 19, 2012
Monday play...
Denver Nuggets +7, laying $107 to win $100 -- I did sprinkle a little bit on the +250 moneyline with Denver, too...I did not sell any points because the line is sitting at 7, the only "key" number in the NBA...Bounce-back spot here for the Nuggets off a 26-point loss at San Antonio, although I think this blowout loss is a little deceiving as the Spurs outscored the Nuggets by 36 points behind the 3-point arc...Memphis has won and covered 8 straight and there is a very good shot that both of those streaks come to an end tonight...Coach George Karl mentioned his squad will have to bring their A-game to win this one and I am hoping and believe that they will do just that and that this game will come down to the wire to determine a winner...
GL...
GL...
Monday rankings & thoughts...
Sides:
1) Den, 2) SA, 3) Dal, 4) Was, 5) Char, 6) Utah, 7) Orl
Totals:
1) Orl ov, 2) Char un, 3) Utah ov, 4) Den un, 5) Was un, 6) SA un, 7) Dal ov
Thoughts:
DEN shot 50% from the field last game, a 26-point loss to the Spurs at SA, but SA shot 59.3% from 3-land (16 for 27) while Den hit 4 threes so the Nuggets were outscored 48-12 on 3-pointers and that was more than the difference in the game...Memphis has 5 guys who can shoot from beyond the arc (3 off the bench), but this team doesn't shoot the 3 as much as the Spurs do...This game is going to be won on the boards and both teams have ferocious offensive rebounders in Zach Randolph (MEMP) and Kenneth Faried (DEN) as Randolph leads the league in rebounding while Faried leads the league in offensive rebounds per game at a sickening 5.6 ORPG clip...MEMP will be looking for a new franchise-high 9-game winning streak if they can win this one, but I like Denver in this bounce-back spot...MEMP on a C8 (covered 8 straight) and from this point on, this streak will be hard to maintain as they barely covered their last game at CHAR by 1/2 a point...
Orl/Atl Over is a chart-play for the ATL Over after a push and 5 Unders before having an Over their last time out...
Spurs have a revenge spot with the Clips from 11 days ago when LAC massacred SA at Staples and the Spurs' players are saying in the San Antonio papers that they owe them one as they admitted the Clips played with way more intensity than the Spurs last time out...
Mavs also a chart-play as they covered last time out after a NC6...The Wizards at 0-8 fighting for their first win and they have a great shot tonight as they stayed with Indy the entire game at Conseco 9 days ago before losing by 4...
1) Den, 2) SA, 3) Dal, 4) Was, 5) Char, 6) Utah, 7) Orl
Totals:
1) Orl ov, 2) Char un, 3) Utah ov, 4) Den un, 5) Was un, 6) SA un, 7) Dal ov
Thoughts:
DEN shot 50% from the field last game, a 26-point loss to the Spurs at SA, but SA shot 59.3% from 3-land (16 for 27) while Den hit 4 threes so the Nuggets were outscored 48-12 on 3-pointers and that was more than the difference in the game...Memphis has 5 guys who can shoot from beyond the arc (3 off the bench), but this team doesn't shoot the 3 as much as the Spurs do...This game is going to be won on the boards and both teams have ferocious offensive rebounders in Zach Randolph (MEMP) and Kenneth Faried (DEN) as Randolph leads the league in rebounding while Faried leads the league in offensive rebounds per game at a sickening 5.6 ORPG clip...MEMP will be looking for a new franchise-high 9-game winning streak if they can win this one, but I like Denver in this bounce-back spot...MEMP on a C8 (covered 8 straight) and from this point on, this streak will be hard to maintain as they barely covered their last game at CHAR by 1/2 a point...
Orl/Atl Over is a chart-play for the ATL Over after a push and 5 Unders before having an Over their last time out...
Spurs have a revenge spot with the Clips from 11 days ago when LAC massacred SA at Staples and the Spurs' players are saying in the San Antonio papers that they owe them one as they admitted the Clips played with way more intensity than the Spurs last time out...
Mavs also a chart-play as they covered last time out after a NC6...The Wizards at 0-8 fighting for their first win and they have a great shot tonight as they stayed with Indy the entire game at Conseco 9 days ago before losing by 4...
Sunday, November 18, 2012
Sunday rankings...
Sides:
1) Ind, 2) Cle, 3) GS, 4) Tor, 5) Hou, 6) Sac, 7) Det, 8) Chi
Totals:
1) Ind un, 2) Sac un, 3) Tor un, 4) GS un, 5) Cle un, 6) Hou ov, 7) Det un, 8) Chi un
Passed on the Orl/Tor automatic under after seeing the high-scoring 2H with TOR yesterday afternoon to kill what looked like a fairly easy winner at the half...Both of these teams rank very poorly in FG% allowed, so I'll pass after seeing how slow the scoring was in this Knocks game halfway through the 2Q...
1) Ind, 2) Cle, 3) GS, 4) Tor, 5) Hou, 6) Sac, 7) Det, 8) Chi
Totals:
1) Ind un, 2) Sac un, 3) Tor un, 4) GS un, 5) Cle un, 6) Hou ov, 7) Det un, 8) Chi un
Passed on the Orl/Tor automatic under after seeing the high-scoring 2H with TOR yesterday afternoon to kill what looked like a fairly easy winner at the half...Both of these teams rank very poorly in FG% allowed, so I'll pass after seeing how slow the scoring was in this Knocks game halfway through the 2Q...
Sunday early play...
Indiana/New York under 187, laying $100 to win $105 -- Taking the early afternoon Under again...This time I have 2 teams in the top 8 in FG% allowed (Indy #1 & NY #8)...
This Indy/NY line looks trappish as it would appear Vegas is just begging you to take the Knicks here...78% of the public all over NY, of course...Indy will be a #1 Side today and this game is my top total, too...Strong chart-play to fade NY as they covered their first 6 games and now have their first NC and Indy has a mini-chart play to take them after ending a NC4 on FRI with a win over Dallas...I don't know if I have the balls to take Indy as the Knicks have been super-tough at home thus far...
GL...
This Indy/NY line looks trappish as it would appear Vegas is just begging you to take the Knicks here...78% of the public all over NY, of course...Indy will be a #1 Side today and this game is my top total, too...Strong chart-play to fade NY as they covered their first 6 games and now have their first NC and Indy has a mini-chart play to take them after ending a NC4 on FRI with a win over Dallas...I don't know if I have the balls to take Indy as the Knicks have been super-tough at home thus far...
GL...
Saturday, November 17, 2012
Saturday rankings...
Sides:
1) NO, 2) Cle, 3) Was, 4) Chi, 5) Char, 6) SA, 7) Bos
Totals:
1) Bos un, 2) Chi ov, 3) Cle ov, 4) SA ov, 5) NO un, 6) Was ov, 7) Char un
Really no Miami/Phoe line out right now as LeBron is questionable and his status determines who I pick in that game for the total...If he plays, I like it Over, and obviously if he doesn't, I like it Under...
Debating a play on NO...I guess I will pass on CLE as the standard play here generally is to FADE a team who just got Home after a 6-game Road trip, BUT, in this instance, CLE has had 3 days rest since their last game while most of the times the Home team has 1 days rest after coming Home from a 5 or 6-day Roadie, so to me, the 3 days of rest gives this team some practice time and some coaching and they get DAL on a back-ender and the Mavs have not covered 6 straight...
MEMP has covered 7 straight and most long streaks like this end at 7, although some years the streak number will extend to 8 before ending...CHAR's 4-3 record is Incredibly deceiving as they have beaten Indy without Granger, DAL without Dirk, WAS without Wall & Nene and MIN without 6 regulars including Love and Rubio...And MEMP is a Huge step up in class here, but I still think there will be a let-down spot for MEMP and the Bobcats could come out of here with a win or perhaps a back-door cover if MEMP stays white-hot tonight...This is the Grizzlies first back-ender of the season, the 2nd to last team in the league not to have one till tonight (Brooklyn still hasn't had one)...
Bulls are a chart-play tonight...
1) NO, 2) Cle, 3) Was, 4) Chi, 5) Char, 6) SA, 7) Bos
Totals:
1) Bos un, 2) Chi ov, 3) Cle ov, 4) SA ov, 5) NO un, 6) Was ov, 7) Char un
Really no Miami/Phoe line out right now as LeBron is questionable and his status determines who I pick in that game for the total...If he plays, I like it Over, and obviously if he doesn't, I like it Under...
Debating a play on NO...I guess I will pass on CLE as the standard play here generally is to FADE a team who just got Home after a 6-game Road trip, BUT, in this instance, CLE has had 3 days rest since their last game while most of the times the Home team has 1 days rest after coming Home from a 5 or 6-day Roadie, so to me, the 3 days of rest gives this team some practice time and some coaching and they get DAL on a back-ender and the Mavs have not covered 6 straight...
MEMP has covered 7 straight and most long streaks like this end at 7, although some years the streak number will extend to 8 before ending...CHAR's 4-3 record is Incredibly deceiving as they have beaten Indy without Granger, DAL without Dirk, WAS without Wall & Nene and MIN without 6 regulars including Love and Rubio...And MEMP is a Huge step up in class here, but I still think there will be a let-down spot for MEMP and the Bobcats could come out of here with a win or perhaps a back-door cover if MEMP stays white-hot tonight...This is the Grizzlies first back-ender of the season, the 2nd to last team in the league not to have one till tonight (Brooklyn still hasn't had one)...
Bulls are a chart-play tonight...
SAT rankings...
Just got home from work -- should have them a little after 7 p.m....No plays on the 7 p.m. game...
Saturday play...
Automatic play:
Toronto/Boston under 187.5, laying $105 to win $100 -- Line dropping all morning but yes, I am taking the tried-and-true "taking early afternoon games under" trend which is 3-0 already this season...Rondo questionable, so if he doesn't play, that can certainly help...
GL...
Toronto/Boston under 187.5, laying $105 to win $100 -- Line dropping all morning but yes, I am taking the tried-and-true "taking early afternoon games under" trend which is 3-0 already this season...Rondo questionable, so if he doesn't play, that can certainly help...
GL...
Friday, November 16, 2012
Friday play...
Golden State Warriors -2, (+113) laying $100 to win $113 -- Minny looks like a M*A*S*H* unit as half their team is injured now and I just do not know where the points are going to come from...GS playing better on the Road early on (2-0-1 ATS)...I probably should take the Under, too, as GS is 2-1 to the Under on the Road with their only Over a back-ender, but my totals have been terrible except for the automatic plays...A lot of seasons, my totals won't kick in till about mid-December...
Philly was pretty much an automatic play that I passed on as they shot less than 30% last time out, but they have been so terrible the last 2 games that I passed...Still tempted to take MEMP, too...
GL...
Philly was pretty much an automatic play that I passed on as they shot less than 30% last time out, but they have been so terrible the last 2 games that I passed...Still tempted to take MEMP, too...
GL...
Friday rankings...
Sides:
1) GS, 2) Memp, 3) Phi, 4) NO, 5) Ind), 6) Orl, 7) Port, 8) Atl, 9) LAL
Totals:
1) GS un, 2) LAL ov, 3) Port ov, 4) Mem ov, 5) NO un, 6) Phi ov, 7) Atl un, 8) Orl un, 9) Ind ov
Thinking about plays on GS and Memp, but giving the Knicks 6 is tough to do as they are white-hot...Huge let-down spot, though...MEMP also has a let-down spot after a testy win vs. OKC where they did make a statement, but they have a days rest after that big win and controlled the game for the most part after the 1Q...NY had an incredible late rally to beat SA and now they get on a plane and head to MEM...Going to be super-tough to turn it up a notch tonight, IMO...
1) GS, 2) Memp, 3) Phi, 4) NO, 5) Ind), 6) Orl, 7) Port, 8) Atl, 9) LAL
Totals:
1) GS un, 2) LAL ov, 3) Port ov, 4) Mem ov, 5) NO un, 6) Phi ov, 7) Atl un, 8) Orl un, 9) Ind ov
Thinking about plays on GS and Memp, but giving the Knicks 6 is tough to do as they are white-hot...Huge let-down spot, though...MEMP also has a let-down spot after a testy win vs. OKC where they did make a statement, but they have a days rest after that big win and controlled the game for the most part after the 1Q...NY had an incredible late rally to beat SA and now they get on a plane and head to MEM...Going to be super-tough to turn it up a notch tonight, IMO...
Thursday, November 15, 2012
Thursday rankings...
Rankings:
Sides:
1) NY, 2) Den, 3) Bos
Totals:
1) NY un, 2) Den ov, 3) Bos un
I am not betting any game lines although I am tempted to take NY, Den and Mia/Den 1Q ov...But again, Miami has NOT had an Over yet in the 1Q on The Road as the game last night missed the Over by 1/2 a point and stayed Under...
Reasoning for the Knicks is strictly riding the hot team...I am not sure if SA ever has let-down situations but they are coming off a nice win at the Lakers last time out...Hard to ignore the points for NY in a game they can win outright...
Denver has a relatively short revenge spot here as they lost a tough one to the Heat at Miami 12 days ago...
Boston won't be "tired" in this back-ender as Doc Rivers did not play any of his players big minutes last night in their win over Utah...Brandon Bass was the only guy over 30 minutes (32 min.)...
Sides:
1) NY, 2) Den, 3) Bos
Totals:
1) NY un, 2) Den ov, 3) Bos un
I am not betting any game lines although I am tempted to take NY, Den and Mia/Den 1Q ov...But again, Miami has NOT had an Over yet in the 1Q on The Road as the game last night missed the Over by 1/2 a point and stayed Under...
Reasoning for the Knicks is strictly riding the hot team...I am not sure if SA ever has let-down situations but they are coming off a nice win at the Lakers last time out...Hard to ignore the points for NY in a game they can win outright...
Denver has a relatively short revenge spot here as they lost a tough one to the Heat at Miami 12 days ago...
Boston won't be "tired" in this back-ender as Doc Rivers did not play any of his players big minutes last night in their win over Utah...Brandon Bass was the only guy over 30 minutes (32 min.)...
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
no play on late games...
Was thinking about Mia/LAC over 1Q and I still think it will go Over in the 1Q, but I am NOT betting it because Miami hasn't had a 1Q Over yet on the Road and LAC, after having many 1Q overs, have had a couple of 1Q Unders recently...Tough for me NOT to take this 1Q Over, but I will pass and hopefully not regret it...
Wednesday play...
Memphis Grizzlies +5.5, laying $107 to win $100 -- Normally I'd say this is a let-down spot for MEMP after beating Miami last time out, but they have 2 days rest and OKC is playing their 5th game in 7 days and they have been spotty at best with their play, needing a big 4Q to get by DET last time out...MEMP may want to make a statement here...
GL...
GL...
WED rankings...
Sides:
1) Mem, 2) Det, 3) Milw, 4) Chi, 5) NO, 6) GS, 7) Dal, 8) LAC, 9) Utah, 10) Char
Totals:
1) Dal un, 2) Memp un, 3) Det un, 4) Chi ov, 5) NO un, 6) Milw un, 7) Utah ov, 8) GS un, 9) Char ov, 10) LAC un
1) Mem, 2) Det, 3) Milw, 4) Chi, 5) NO, 6) GS, 7) Dal, 8) LAC, 9) Utah, 10) Char
Totals:
1) Dal un, 2) Memp un, 3) Det un, 4) Chi ov, 5) NO un, 6) Milw un, 7) Utah ov, 8) GS un, 9) Char ov, 10) LAC un
Rankings to be posted soon...
Day from Hell at work, and I mean, Super-busy and I had some side BS, and I mean, total BS, that I had to deal with, too, on the side...
Det and Det un will be in y rankings for the 7:05 game, probably in the top 5 for both, but no bets on either...
Probably have a play on the MIA/LAC game later and I'll look at things a bit more as I have 30 minutes here to nail things down...
Det and Det un will be in y rankings for the 7:05 game, probably in the top 5 for both, but no bets on either...
Probably have a play on the MIA/LAC game later and I'll look at things a bit more as I have 30 minutes here to nail things down...
Tuesday, November 13, 2012
adding Wiz ML...
Washington Wizards Pick (+118), laying $100 to win $118 -- Wiz 0-5 and I am taking the angle where "a winless team of 0-5 and greater is fighting hard for their 1st win"...We are seeing Detroit fighting hard the last week for their first win and if you look at Washington's schedule, this is their best shot until Indy on the 19th or the Bobcats again on the 24th...
GL...
GL...
Tuesday rankings...
Forgot to bring my paper charts to work, so it takes way longer to cap the Board with these crappy websites and their info which is 98% useless...Also helped moved 2500 pounds of carpeting up to our 2nd-floor facility (the side we just acquired) and I am sore as all hell as I am sure the other 5 guys are, too...8 rolls of carpeting weighing 300+ pounds each up multiple flights of stairs...Not fun...I am getting more sore just typing this...
I have one play for sure and am debating another...Staying away from totals except for automatic plays...
Rankings:
Sides:
1) Tor, 2) Was, 3) Orl, 4) Port, 5) Cle, 6) LAL
Totals:
1) Tor ov, 2) Was ov, 3) Orl un, 4) LAL un, 5) Port un, 6) Cle un
Taking:
Toronto Raptors +8, (+118) laying $100 to win $118 -- Thinking about Toronto ML for a fraction of a unit at +408 and that fraction would be 25% (or $25 in this instance)...They haven't won at Indy in a couple of years and are banged up right now and played a triple-OT game last night but back-to-backs don't bother this team as they are 2-0 ATS in this spot and won their only game on a back-ender...Covered 2 of 3 Road games against better competition than this Indy team...It just comes down to whether they can avoid a big Indy surge to start the game...If they can avoid that and stay in the game for 3 quarters, they can win this game...
I am thinking about a play on the Wizards ML as they are winless and no doubt see a legit opportunity for their first win tonight at CHAR...Someone mentioned somewhere that the Bobcats haven't won 2 straight home game since last March, but, hey whatever, the Wiz's motivation here is certainly stronger than that stat...
GL...
I have one play for sure and am debating another...Staying away from totals except for automatic plays...
Rankings:
Sides:
1) Tor, 2) Was, 3) Orl, 4) Port, 5) Cle, 6) LAL
Totals:
1) Tor ov, 2) Was ov, 3) Orl un, 4) LAL un, 5) Port un, 6) Cle un
Taking:
Toronto Raptors +8, (+118) laying $100 to win $118 -- Thinking about Toronto ML for a fraction of a unit at +408 and that fraction would be 25% (or $25 in this instance)...They haven't won at Indy in a couple of years and are banged up right now and played a triple-OT game last night but back-to-backs don't bother this team as they are 2-0 ATS in this spot and won their only game on a back-ender...Covered 2 of 3 Road games against better competition than this Indy team...It just comes down to whether they can avoid a big Indy surge to start the game...If they can avoid that and stay in the game for 3 quarters, they can win this game...
I am thinking about a play on the Wizards ML as they are winless and no doubt see a legit opportunity for their first win tonight at CHAR...Someone mentioned somewhere that the Bobcats haven't won 2 straight home game since last March, but, hey whatever, the Wiz's motivation here is certainly stronger than that stat...
GL...
Monday, November 12, 2012
2H play...
Philadelphia 76ers -5, 2H, laying $106 to win $100...Borderline play but fits several criteria for me...Was going to play Under, too, but Philly shot a tad low FG%-wise in the 1H for me to do that...
GL...
GL...
NBA play...
Mia/Houston under 195, laying $107 to win $100 -- Miami shut down Jeremy Lin last year during Lin's magical run in NY by being
physical with him and I am going from memory, but I believe Lin had 8 turnovers
in that game at Miami...This game is at HOU, but all the Heat have to do is
contain Lin and Harden and if they can do that, I don't see Houston reaching 80
points...HOU has 4 straight Unders and MIA has 3 straight Unders...MIA 3-0 to
the Under on the Road and HOU 3-0 to the Under at Home...
GL...
GL...
rankings...
Sides:
1) Mia, 2) Bos, 3) Port, 4) Min, 5) OKC, 6) Phi, 7) Tor, 8) Den
Totals:
1) Mia un, 2) Min ov, 3) Phi un, 4) Bos un, 5) Tor un, 6) Port un, 7) OKC ov, 8) Den un
I am thinking about Miami under as I think they will shut down the Rockets...They shut down Jeremy Lin last year during Lin's magical run in NY by being physical with him and I am going from memory, but I believe Lin had 8 turnovers in that game at Miami...This game is at HOU, but all the Heat have to do is contain Lin and Harden and if they can do that, I don't see Houston reaching 80 points...HOU has 4 straight Unders and MIA has 3 straight Unders...MIA 3-0 to the Under on the Road and HOU 3-0 to the Under at Home...
1) Mia, 2) Bos, 3) Port, 4) Min, 5) OKC, 6) Phi, 7) Tor, 8) Den
Totals:
1) Mia un, 2) Min ov, 3) Phi un, 4) Bos un, 5) Tor un, 6) Port un, 7) OKC ov, 8) Den un
I am thinking about Miami under as I think they will shut down the Rockets...They shut down Jeremy Lin last year during Lin's magical run in NY by being physical with him and I am going from memory, but I believe Lin had 8 turnovers in that game at Miami...This game is at HOU, but all the Heat have to do is contain Lin and Harden and if they can do that, I don't see Houston reaching 80 points...HOU has 4 straight Unders and MIA has 3 straight Unders...MIA 3-0 to the Under on the Road and HOU 3-0 to the Under at Home...
2 NBA plays for now...
These 2 jumped out a bit and the Heat line already moved up 1/2 a point so I bet these now before finishing the Board and ranking my plays:
Boston Celtics Pick, (+126) laying $100 to win $126 -- Chart-play to BOS here, who was on a NC5 (didn't cover 5 straight) before winning and covering at MILW last time out...CHI is 0-5 ATS at Home...To say they have looked unimpressive is an under-statement, but they are 4-2 SU against a weak schedule as OKC is the only top tier team they have played and Boston still feels as though they are a top-tier team, too, although they have not played like one at all thus far...But they showed signs with this win at MILW...Hopefully there will be some carry-over and they can take care of this Chicago squad...
Miami Heat -6, (+105), laying $100 to win $105 -- Heat should be able to name their score here...Got trounced at Memphis last night and I expect them to bounce-back and win this by double-digits...I am still not impressed with HOU...Maybe they will prove me wrong...Talent-wise, this isn't even close, but this is a team sport, so anything can happen if a team is playing well and individuals are playing like individuals...The Heat are 15 points better than the Rockets on any given night and I am thinking that after last night's debacle at Memphis, tonight will be one of those nights...
GL...
Boston Celtics Pick, (+126) laying $100 to win $126 -- Chart-play to BOS here, who was on a NC5 (didn't cover 5 straight) before winning and covering at MILW last time out...CHI is 0-5 ATS at Home...To say they have looked unimpressive is an under-statement, but they are 4-2 SU against a weak schedule as OKC is the only top tier team they have played and Boston still feels as though they are a top-tier team, too, although they have not played like one at all thus far...But they showed signs with this win at MILW...Hopefully there will be some carry-over and they can take care of this Chicago squad...
Miami Heat -6, (+105), laying $100 to win $105 -- Heat should be able to name their score here...Got trounced at Memphis last night and I expect them to bounce-back and win this by double-digits...I am still not impressed with HOU...Maybe they will prove me wrong...Talent-wise, this isn't even close, but this is a team sport, so anything can happen if a team is playing well and individuals are playing like individuals...The Heat are 15 points better than the Rockets on any given night and I am thinking that after last night's debacle at Memphis, tonight will be one of those nights...
GL...
Sunday, November 11, 2012
Sunday rankings...
Sides:
1) Cle, 2) Memp, 3) LAC, 4) Orl, 5) LAL
Totals:
1) LAC un, 2) Cle ov, 3) Memp un, 4) Orl ov, 5) LAL un
1) Cle, 2) Memp, 3) LAC, 4) Orl, 5) LAL
Totals:
1) LAC un, 2) Cle ov, 3) Memp un, 4) Orl ov, 5) LAL un
NBA play...
Atlanta/L.A. Clippers under 195.5, laying $105 to win $100 -- Automatic play on the early afternoon game Under (12:30 p.m. local time start in LA)...Mini-chart-play to the Under for the Clips...
GL...
GL...
Sunday play...
Back to my blog...Didn't expect to be back this soon, but I am taking a hiatus from the Forum for obvious reasons...
NFL teaser:
NE Pick
Caro +16.5
STL +26
Hou +14
laying $140 to win $100...
NFL teaser:
NE Pick
Caro +16.5
STL +26
Hou +14
laying $140 to win $100...
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Saturday...
I do have a bet and am posting my Rankings and Thoughts at the ThinkDog forum right around 6:45 p.m. EST...
Remember, to register at the ThinkDog forum, you need to click here:
Register
And then you need to click on the Email address in that link and E.J. will set you up with an account...You cannot Register yourself as this is a semi-private forum...
If you cannot get registered through EJ via email please make a COMMENT on my Blog and I will look into it and maybe quick copy-and-paste my stuff here another night...
Remember, to register at the ThinkDog forum, you need to click here:
Register
And then you need to click on the Email address in that link and E.J. will set you up with an account...You cannot Register yourself as this is a semi-private forum...
If you cannot get registered through EJ via email please make a COMMENT on my Blog and I will look into it and maybe quick copy-and-paste my stuff here another night...
post-mortem for Friday...
Post-mortem on Friday...
I always do self-analysis to see what I could have done
better, if anything, about my night...
From a handicapping perspective, I could not have done
too much better on Friday...
The rankings show that, the games I talked about show
that and I even talked about 2 "automatic" plays that I have
established during 31 years of handicapping the NBA, and these 2 particular
automatic plays are pretty strong plays...Usually very strong, in fact...
And sure enough, Brooklyn won by 39 points and the Lakers
won by 24...
So what is clear and extremely upsetting to me is that I
had a solid night handicapping, but an awful, atrocious, abominable, agonizing
night of actual betting...
I hate to lose...It irks me to no end when I have a
losing night...I know this was "only" an 0-2 night, but it was a
terrible, horrific 0-2 night for me considering the games I talked about and
the automatic plays I did NOT bet...
I have said in multiple posts this season that my totals
are starting slow like most years and I need a few weeks, maybe a
month-and-a-half before the data is in and I start nailing those...But my sides
have been spot-on as the evidence has shown pretty much every night...Top 9
sides 8-1 with one half-point loser Friday and not a single bet...
All this proves to me is how hard it really can be to win
money long term at this...You not only have to be a good handicapper, you need
to select the right games after capping and then use smart money management on
the bets.
The money management I am not worried about as EJ and I
are doing a demonstration on that in "The Trek to $20,000"
section...I also am not worried about my handicapping...I just need, starting
Saturday, to bet the top plays I have ranked...
I haven't ranked my plays daily EVERY day since the
2007-08 season after doing it for 18 seasons in a row...I stopped doing it
daily due to a new job I started that season (and am still at, where I wrk 12
to 9 and often am there later than that because I close the joint down most
nights)...So maybe I just haven't adjusted to betting my top ranked plays just
yet, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE starting Saturday...
I still cannot figure out why I bet a #7 total and
bypassed all the sides I bypassed...
Won't happen again...
I am PISSED at myself and will make the necessary
correction...
Both those bets were NOT bad bets as GS and LAL shot
horribly...Horribly...Any kind of decent shooting % from those teams and it
would have went Over easily...And I still don't know how the Indy/Minny game
went Over because when I left work to go home, it was on an easy Under Pace
through 2 1/2 quarters...
But not betting a few of those Sides, especially the
automatic plays, was criminal on my part...
I won't let that happen again...
22 1/2 weeks left and hopefully this horrid night will
long be forgotten in a few weeks/months...
Onwards and (hopefully) Upwards...
Friday, November 9, 2012
additional Friday play...
Golden State/LA Lakers Over 199, laying $100 to win $102 -- Sold a point here...The game line moved up slightly because Bogut is OUT tonight...With the firing of Lakers' coach Mike Brown, this Lakers team will be super-motivated to win this one...I want to take them (-7.5) but I am deathly afraid of a back-door situation late as the Lakers bench is terrible...When Golden State played the Clips at staples last week, it was a back-end of a back-to-back and Bogut sat out that one...GS didn't have problems scoring as they put up 114 and the Clips Center DeAndre Jordan is a good defender...So I am not afraid of GS not scoring tonight...And I do think the Lakers are going to score mucho points because their starters should see extended minutes since they don't play till Sunday (they have Saturday off)...Their starters NEED to see extended minutes if this team is going to win against just about anyone right now...Don't be surprised if Kobe puts up 35 to 40...He'll want this one and should play at least 37 minutes...I simply cannot lay 7.5, but I will take the Over instead...Taking the Team total Over for the Lakers probably not a bad idea, too...
GL...
GL...
Another Friday play coming...
I have a late game that I am going to take...
I will be stalking for 2H lines, too...
Remember, to register at the ThinkDog forum, you need to click here:
Register
And then you need to click on the Email address in that link and E.J. will set you up with an account...You cannot Register yourself as this is a semi-private forum...
I will be stalking for 2H lines, too...
Remember, to register at the ThinkDog forum, you need to click here:
Register
And then you need to click on the Email address in that link and E.J. will set you up with an account...You cannot Register yourself as this is a semi-private forum...
Friday rankings...
Debating a 1Q play but we'll see...
JUST A NOTE -- I did make a bet at 4:00 p.m. today a few posts down...
Sides:
1) Det, 2) Den, 3) Bkn, 4) Char, 5) Phi, 6) Cle, 7) LAL, 8) Mia, 9) NY, 10) Was, 11) Sac, 12) Hou, 13) Ind
Totals:
1) Ind un, 2) Cle ov, 3) Den ov, 4) Mia un, 5) Phi un, 6) Sac ov, 7) LAL ov, 8) NY ov, 9) Det un, 10) Bkn ov, 11) Char un, 12) Hou ov, 13) Was un
Brief Thoughts:
Detroit will fight hard until they get their first win...I will often pick winless teams (0-5 or greater) early in the season in what I feel are the right spots and catching OKC with a questionable bench off a big win in CHI last night on National TV is one of these spots to back-door a big number...
Cleveland Over 4 straight and they have some guards who can score and Kylie Irving likes to push the ball...Phoenix 3 straight Overs themselves, so we have Overs colliding, which is usually good for the Over...
Denver 3 straight Overs but this total has SHOT UP all day long and losing some value may keep me from betting this game...
Brooklyn off a 30-point loss, so since they are supposed to be a "good" team, this is an automatic play for me...
I talked about the Lakers' new coach angle...
Philly is the gang who cannot shoot straight as they are DEAD LAST in offensive FG% right now after they were in the top 5 for several weeks at the beginning of last season...
Dallas Over in all 5 games against a Knicks' team who hasn't allowed over 84 points in any game yet (I think -- going by memory on that one)...
Even though it's only ranked #5, I like that Miami Under quite a bit tonight...Of course the total has dropped at least 4 points today, which is why it fell in my rankings as I lost value there...
JUST A NOTE -- I did make a bet at 4:00 p.m. today a few posts down...
Sides:
1) Det, 2) Den, 3) Bkn, 4) Char, 5) Phi, 6) Cle, 7) LAL, 8) Mia, 9) NY, 10) Was, 11) Sac, 12) Hou, 13) Ind
Totals:
1) Ind un, 2) Cle ov, 3) Den ov, 4) Mia un, 5) Phi un, 6) Sac ov, 7) LAL ov, 8) NY ov, 9) Det un, 10) Bkn ov, 11) Char un, 12) Hou ov, 13) Was un
Brief Thoughts:
Detroit will fight hard until they get their first win...I will often pick winless teams (0-5 or greater) early in the season in what I feel are the right spots and catching OKC with a questionable bench off a big win in CHI last night on National TV is one of these spots to back-door a big number...
Cleveland Over 4 straight and they have some guards who can score and Kylie Irving likes to push the ball...Phoenix 3 straight Overs themselves, so we have Overs colliding, which is usually good for the Over...
Denver 3 straight Overs but this total has SHOT UP all day long and losing some value may keep me from betting this game...
Brooklyn off a 30-point loss, so since they are supposed to be a "good" team, this is an automatic play for me...
I talked about the Lakers' new coach angle...
Philly is the gang who cannot shoot straight as they are DEAD LAST in offensive FG% right now after they were in the top 5 for several weeks at the beginning of last season...
Dallas Over in all 5 games against a Knicks' team who hasn't allowed over 84 points in any game yet (I think -- going by memory on that one)...
Even though it's only ranked #5, I like that Miami Under quite a bit tonight...Of course the total has dropped at least 4 points today, which is why it fell in my rankings as I lost value there...
Interesting angle tonight...
Mike Brown was fired today as Lakers' head coach...
People who have followed me for years KNOW I Love the "new coach trend" where "the team whose coach just got fired wins and covers for the new coach's 1st game"...
Was 3-0 ATS in the NFL last year (including a 13-point dog KC winning outright vs. GB) and I believe it was 3-0 ATS in the NBA last year, too, and I think it may be undefeated (ATS-wise) the last 2 seasons in the NBA (there may be one NC)...
But this is a UNIQUE situation...
Almost every time a coach gets fired, it's a bad team with a horrific record and they are getting points in the new coach's first game....Well, this is the Lakers, and they are giving 7.5 points now (up from 6.5) as Vegas MUST be on to this trend, because it has been MONEY the past few seasons across multiple sports...
This Lakers team is Terrible right now and I don't know if I can lay 7.5 against a GS team playing fairly decently...
Back with rankings shortly as all the picks are made, but I am ranking them...
People who have followed me for years KNOW I Love the "new coach trend" where "the team whose coach just got fired wins and covers for the new coach's 1st game"...
Was 3-0 ATS in the NFL last year (including a 13-point dog KC winning outright vs. GB) and I believe it was 3-0 ATS in the NBA last year, too, and I think it may be undefeated (ATS-wise) the last 2 seasons in the NBA (there may be one NC)...
But this is a UNIQUE situation...
Almost every time a coach gets fired, it's a bad team with a horrific record and they are getting points in the new coach's first game....Well, this is the Lakers, and they are giving 7.5 points now (up from 6.5) as Vegas MUST be on to this trend, because it has been MONEY the past few seasons across multiple sports...
This Lakers team is Terrible right now and I don't know if I can lay 7.5 against a GS team playing fairly decently...
Back with rankings shortly as all the picks are made, but I am ranking them...
Friday play and Announcement...
Announcement first -- With the busy season hitting me at work, I am going to try posting at ONE place for a couple of weeks to make my life a little easier rather than posting at one place and the copying-and-pasting to other places while I am betting at multiple sportsbooks...
So for the next 2 or 3 weeks, I am only going to post my plays and info at the ThinkDog forum...
Here is the link to register:
Register
It is a FREE forum, but semi-private...You will have to email my partner at the above link to get access to the Sports Forums where we have picks, plays and bets in there in multiple sports from handicappers like myself, EJ (my partner) and others...
I will post my rankings, thoughts and bets in there for the next 2 to 3 weeks...If I have a bet, I will put an alert here on my blog if I have time, but after tonight, for several weeks, I am going to post everything on the Forum in the NBA section ONLY, and see how it goes...
You won't be able to see the NBA section or any other section until you Register...
For tonight, I have a bet made already:
Indiana/Minnesota Under 183, laying $100 to win $100 -- I was pissed as the line sat at 184 & -105 and I was going to bet it but thought, "Hmmm, let's see if it goes up another 1/2 a point" as it started at 182.5 earlier in the day...I click on it 20 minutes later and it's FLYING downwards so I quick grabbed it at 183.5 at 2 Books and 183 at another with no juice...Indiana has NOT had an Over yet (in regulation time) this season...Sure, they have One over, but that was a double-overtime game and it was an Under in regulation time (which I track on my paper charts and in my database), so Indy is 5-0 to the Under in regulation time...Minny is 3-1 to the Under...I looked at the Pace in all 9 of these games and they were all pretty damn slow...The one Over that happened for Minny had a lot of offensive rebounds and put-backs and both teams shot well (Minny 50% and Brooklyn 48%)...Also, I know it is VERY early, but these 2 teams are in the Top 4 in the league right now for FG% Allowed on defense (Indy #1 and Minny #4)...So as long as the Pace stays the same and they don't shoot lights out and it doesn't go OT, then we got this Under tonight...
GL...
So for the next 2 or 3 weeks, I am only going to post my plays and info at the ThinkDog forum...
Here is the link to register:
Register
It is a FREE forum, but semi-private...You will have to email my partner at the above link to get access to the Sports Forums where we have picks, plays and bets in there in multiple sports from handicappers like myself, EJ (my partner) and others...
I will post my rankings, thoughts and bets in there for the next 2 to 3 weeks...If I have a bet, I will put an alert here on my blog if I have time, but after tonight, for several weeks, I am going to post everything on the Forum in the NBA section ONLY, and see how it goes...
You won't be able to see the NBA section or any other section until you Register...
For tonight, I have a bet made already:
Indiana/Minnesota Under 183, laying $100 to win $100 -- I was pissed as the line sat at 184 & -105 and I was going to bet it but thought, "Hmmm, let's see if it goes up another 1/2 a point" as it started at 182.5 earlier in the day...I click on it 20 minutes later and it's FLYING downwards so I quick grabbed it at 183.5 at 2 Books and 183 at another with no juice...Indiana has NOT had an Over yet (in regulation time) this season...Sure, they have One over, but that was a double-overtime game and it was an Under in regulation time (which I track on my paper charts and in my database), so Indy is 5-0 to the Under in regulation time...Minny is 3-1 to the Under...I looked at the Pace in all 9 of these games and they were all pretty damn slow...The one Over that happened for Minny had a lot of offensive rebounds and put-backs and both teams shot well (Minny 50% and Brooklyn 48%)...Also, I know it is VERY early, but these 2 teams are in the Top 4 in the league right now for FG% Allowed on defense (Indy #1 and Minny #4)...So as long as the Pace stays the same and they don't shoot lights out and it doesn't go OT, then we got this Under tonight...
GL...
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Thursday rankings...
Sides:
1) OKC, 2) Port
Totals:
1) OKC un, 2) Port ov
I simply don't have the guts to bet Portland tonight and didn't even have the guts to make them a #1 play...Let-down spot here for the Clips after a big win against the Spurs last night...PORT off a loss makes it even a better play and the "Old Brewers7" wouldn't hesitate to play Portland here, but I am a little gun-shy right now this early in the season...
OKC a very public play but CHI is 0-3 ATS at Home and has also played a very weak schedule thus far to "earn" that 3-1 SU record...They have not been impressive other than that blowout win at CLE which seems to have woken up that CLE squad up a bit as they played 2 great games in a row at MILW and LAC and was in the game for 3 1/2 quarters last night at GS while the Cavs were off a big let-down spot of their own...But the Bulls have benefited from a fairly easy schedule thus far...OKC is just 2-2 but have played SA, Port and ATL...I am not betting them either because it just looks too easy to me which is scaring me off a play...
I'll look at 2H lines and prepare for tomorrow's slate later tonight...
1) OKC, 2) Port
Totals:
1) OKC un, 2) Port ov
I simply don't have the guts to bet Portland tonight and didn't even have the guts to make them a #1 play...Let-down spot here for the Clips after a big win against the Spurs last night...PORT off a loss makes it even a better play and the "Old Brewers7" wouldn't hesitate to play Portland here, but I am a little gun-shy right now this early in the season...
OKC a very public play but CHI is 0-3 ATS at Home and has also played a very weak schedule thus far to "earn" that 3-1 SU record...They have not been impressive other than that blowout win at CLE which seems to have woken up that CLE squad up a bit as they played 2 great games in a row at MILW and LAC and was in the game for 3 1/2 quarters last night at GS while the Cavs were off a big let-down spot of their own...But the Bulls have benefited from a fairly easy schedule thus far...OKC is just 2-2 but have played SA, Port and ATL...I am not betting them either because it just looks too easy to me which is scaring me off a play...
I'll look at 2H lines and prepare for tomorrow's slate later tonight...
Thursday thoughts...
New rule:
I am not betting any plays when I am super-busy at work and then become rushed to make bets at the last second...
It just doesn't work...
I was swamped yesterday and had a meeting at 7:00 and it was just too hectic with 13 games on the Board, trying to decide which games to bet, so in the future, I am simply going to stalk 2nd-half lines on busy days at work with semi-big or big boards...I rushed to bet CHAR right before my meeting and when I got out of the meeting about a minute before halftime and saw them getting beat by double-digits, and then the Bkn/Mia 1Q finished as an Under, well, it took the wind right out of my sails and I didn't feel like betting anything else the rest of the night...And I usually get out of work around 9 to 9:30, but I didn't leave till after 10:30 last night due to being swamped...
Now the Brooklyn/Miami 1Q Over I had circled the day before, so I was not rushed on that play at all...No excuses there...The 1Q was the highest-scoring quarter of the game, but hey, it simply didn't make it over the total...I didn't see any of the game so I couldn't see how the flow of the game went, but the Pace did look relatively slow from the boxscore so I don't know if BKN slowed things down or whether Miami did...
We have 23 weeks left before playoffs so there will be LOTS of opportunities to make winning bets, but I need to just pass on game plays during busy days at work unless I have the play circled from the night before...I am not an action guy at all, I can pass on plays any day or multiple days and will start doing so as the busy season approaches at work...
Tonight I will stalk for 2H plays...
I lean to PORT as I expect a let-down from the Clips after dominating SA last night, but I haven't looked at the game yet...I watched most of the Orl/Chi game on TUE and CHI just did not impress me at all...ORL looked good at times against them and then they get blown out at Minny last night, so I wonder if CHI just had a bad night or whether they are severely over-rated right now without Rose?...Of couse, I watched most of the Cle/LAC 2 nights ago, too, and CLE looked spectacular, while the Clips looked bad and got outplayed...And of course, the Clips hammer SA last night and CLE got beat by GS and could not cover 6 points...
So (and I have said this before many times over the years), but sometimes, watching games can hurt you as a handicapper because you think what you see is reality, and what you see first-hand on TV can have lasting impressions, which can be bad, because the fact of the matter is you could be watching one team on an off-night and the other team might be clicking on all cylinders for one night...
So the point is to be careful not to let what you see on TV affect your basic handicapping fundamentals...Watching a lot of games on TV does NOT necessarily make you a better handicapper, but it certainly can help you gain more information by listening to what good broadcasters and color-men say during the game and you can see how some teams match up vs. others...The trick is not to let what you see on any given night influence how you handicap those teams moving forward...
Anyway, I say that because with as mediocre as CHI looked against ORL on TUE, I really don't see how they will cover vs. OKC based on that game...But I also know a different CHI team will undoubtedly show up tonight, a more motivated team, so I am staying away from this one as OKC has been inconsistent early this season and I just don't know which OKC team will show up as they continue to adjust to the Harden for K'Mart trade...
I will probably only look at 2H plays for tonight...
I am not betting any plays when I am super-busy at work and then become rushed to make bets at the last second...
It just doesn't work...
I was swamped yesterday and had a meeting at 7:00 and it was just too hectic with 13 games on the Board, trying to decide which games to bet, so in the future, I am simply going to stalk 2nd-half lines on busy days at work with semi-big or big boards...I rushed to bet CHAR right before my meeting and when I got out of the meeting about a minute before halftime and saw them getting beat by double-digits, and then the Bkn/Mia 1Q finished as an Under, well, it took the wind right out of my sails and I didn't feel like betting anything else the rest of the night...And I usually get out of work around 9 to 9:30, but I didn't leave till after 10:30 last night due to being swamped...
Now the Brooklyn/Miami 1Q Over I had circled the day before, so I was not rushed on that play at all...No excuses there...The 1Q was the highest-scoring quarter of the game, but hey, it simply didn't make it over the total...I didn't see any of the game so I couldn't see how the flow of the game went, but the Pace did look relatively slow from the boxscore so I don't know if BKN slowed things down or whether Miami did...
We have 23 weeks left before playoffs so there will be LOTS of opportunities to make winning bets, but I need to just pass on game plays during busy days at work unless I have the play circled from the night before...I am not an action guy at all, I can pass on plays any day or multiple days and will start doing so as the busy season approaches at work...
Tonight I will stalk for 2H plays...
I lean to PORT as I expect a let-down from the Clips after dominating SA last night, but I haven't looked at the game yet...I watched most of the Orl/Chi game on TUE and CHI just did not impress me at all...ORL looked good at times against them and then they get blown out at Minny last night, so I wonder if CHI just had a bad night or whether they are severely over-rated right now without Rose?...Of couse, I watched most of the Cle/LAC 2 nights ago, too, and CLE looked spectacular, while the Clips looked bad and got outplayed...And of course, the Clips hammer SA last night and CLE got beat by GS and could not cover 6 points...
So (and I have said this before many times over the years), but sometimes, watching games can hurt you as a handicapper because you think what you see is reality, and what you see first-hand on TV can have lasting impressions, which can be bad, because the fact of the matter is you could be watching one team on an off-night and the other team might be clicking on all cylinders for one night...
So the point is to be careful not to let what you see on TV affect your basic handicapping fundamentals...Watching a lot of games on TV does NOT necessarily make you a better handicapper, but it certainly can help you gain more information by listening to what good broadcasters and color-men say during the game and you can see how some teams match up vs. others...The trick is not to let what you see on any given night influence how you handicap those teams moving forward...
Anyway, I say that because with as mediocre as CHI looked against ORL on TUE, I really don't see how they will cover vs. OKC based on that game...But I also know a different CHI team will undoubtedly show up tonight, a more motivated team, so I am staying away from this one as OKC has been inconsistent early this season and I just don't know which OKC team will show up as they continue to adjust to the Harden for K'Mart trade...
I will probably only look at 2H plays for tonight...
Wednesday, November 7, 2012
WED play...
I played:
Charlotte Bobcats Pick, laying $100 to win $129...
GL...
I'll be stalking for 2H plays...
Charlotte Bobcats Pick, laying $100 to win $129...
GL...
I'll be stalking for 2H plays...
WED rankings...
Sides:
1) Cha, 2) LAC, 3) Den, 4) Tor, 5) Was, 6) Orl, 7) Memp, 8) Cle ,9) Det, 10) Atl, 11) NO, 12) Bkn, 13) Utah
Totals:
1) Den ov, 2) LAC ov, 3) Tor ov, 4) Was un, 5) Orl ov, 6) NO un, 7) Atl un, 8) Bkn ov, 9) Memp ov, 10) Det un, 11) Cle ov, 12) Cha un, 13) Utah ov
My paper charts are updated...
I like Totals better than Sides today, but we'll see what happens...Debating on what else to play tonight...Maybe CHA ML...
1) Cha, 2) LAC, 3) Den, 4) Tor, 5) Was, 6) Orl, 7) Memp, 8) Cle ,9) Det, 10) Atl, 11) NO, 12) Bkn, 13) Utah
Totals:
1) Den ov, 2) LAC ov, 3) Tor ov, 4) Was un, 5) Orl ov, 6) NO un, 7) Atl un, 8) Bkn ov, 9) Memp ov, 10) Det un, 11) Cle ov, 12) Cha un, 13) Utah ov
My paper charts are updated...
I like Totals better than Sides today, but we'll see what happens...Debating on what else to play tonight...Maybe CHA ML...
Wednesday play...
Busy day and I don't know if I'll have time to cap...
One play I had to play now that I had circled as the juice and line is FLYING upward...Vegas jacked the game total way up, too
Brooklyn/Miami Over 52.5, 1Q, laying $115 to win $100 -- Hitting 53 at a lot of places, get it now...Brooklyn flew over in the 1Q both of their games and MIA flying Over in 1Q all 3 of their Home games...
GL...
I hope to have time for Rankings...We'll see...
One play I had to play now that I had circled as the juice and line is FLYING upward...Vegas jacked the game total way up, too
Brooklyn/Miami Over 52.5, 1Q, laying $115 to win $100 -- Hitting 53 at a lot of places, get it now...Brooklyn flew over in the 1Q both of their games and MIA flying Over in 1Q all 3 of their Home games...
GL...
I hope to have time for Rankings...We'll see...
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Tuesday rankings...
Sides:
1) Den, 2) Chi, 3) Tor
Totals:
1) Chi un, 2) Den un, 3) Tor ov
Debating hard on a play on Denver, and Chicago has crept into play now...
CHI is an automatic play, taking a good team off a 33.3% or less shooting night their previous game...The Bulls' starters shot terribly last time out and have had 2 days to figure out what the heck happened in that home loss to a Davis-less Hornets' team...Public on the Dog and we all know what happens when the Public is on a DOG at a rate of around 60% or higher -- because the Public historically does NOT know how to pick Dogs...Roughly 60% of the public was on Dallas at Utah last week and how did that go?...I saw 59% on Orlando tonight...Bulls 0-2 ATS at Home, how can they possibly beat a 2-0 ORL team by double-digits, right??...Turkoglu out at least a month and Harrington out at least another week and Nelson questionable tonight...CHI will win and should cover this...
DEN should maul this horrific DET squad...If the Lakers hadn't mauled them on SUN, this would be a play for me...If this DET team has any heart at all, they'd cover this number tonight...Maybe they will, but somehow I doubt it...There were a lot of high expectations for this DEN team this season because they have "so much depth"...Coach George Karl only used 8 players in his rotation against Miami and were about 10 seconds away from winning that game, but Ray Allen's 4-point play broke their hearts...DEN will be super-motivated to get off the schnide tonight and the Nuggets may not take their foot off the pedal to insure victory #1, which will happen tonight...
1) Den, 2) Chi, 3) Tor
Totals:
1) Chi un, 2) Den un, 3) Tor ov
Debating hard on a play on Denver, and Chicago has crept into play now...
CHI is an automatic play, taking a good team off a 33.3% or less shooting night their previous game...The Bulls' starters shot terribly last time out and have had 2 days to figure out what the heck happened in that home loss to a Davis-less Hornets' team...Public on the Dog and we all know what happens when the Public is on a DOG at a rate of around 60% or higher -- because the Public historically does NOT know how to pick Dogs...Roughly 60% of the public was on Dallas at Utah last week and how did that go?...I saw 59% on Orlando tonight...Bulls 0-2 ATS at Home, how can they possibly beat a 2-0 ORL team by double-digits, right??...Turkoglu out at least a month and Harrington out at least another week and Nelson questionable tonight...CHI will win and should cover this...
DEN should maul this horrific DET squad...If the Lakers hadn't mauled them on SUN, this would be a play for me...If this DET team has any heart at all, they'd cover this number tonight...Maybe they will, but somehow I doubt it...There were a lot of high expectations for this DEN team this season because they have "so much depth"...Coach George Karl only used 8 players in his rotation against Miami and were about 10 seconds away from winning that game, but Ray Allen's 4-point play broke their hearts...DEN will be super-motivated to get off the schnide tonight and the Nuggets may not take their foot off the pedal to insure victory #1, which will happen tonight...
Week 1 tally for Ranked #1 picks...
#1 Sides off to a good start at 5-1-1 and despite an 0-4 start with my #1 Totals, I have won 3 straight to claw back to 3-4 there...
Not sure if I will play anything on TUE as nothing jumps out at first blush (with no capping), although I wonder if Denver runs Detroit right out of town...Both teams 0-3, but Denver clearly the much better team and they had Miami beat until Ray Allen hit a 4-point play in the final 10 seconds to edge Denver on Saturday in Miami...
Denver will be playing their first Home game...I watched a good part of the Lakers/Pistons game SUN night and Detroit looked awful...Coach Lawrence Frank pulled all 5 starters fairly early in the 3Q (at once) as the effort was lagging at that point as the Lakers' lead ballooned to about 35...Usually I like bounce-backs from a 20+ or 30+ point loss, EXCEPT from BAD teams and Detroit is awful-bad...
I don't like laying double-digits in the NBA and rarely do it, but I lean to the Nuggets at first-blush to take out the Pistons by about 18 to 20 points because right now, the Nuggets are playing a little better than the Lake-Show as I don't believe the Lakers could stay with Miami right now like the Nuggets did on SAT...The Lakers destroying the Pistons was NO accomplishment, trust me...I mean, the Lakers went 0-8 in the Preseason and started the Regular Season 0-3, so OH BOY, the Lakers are back with their big 29-point win without Steve Nash now, huh?...Not so fast, folks, the Pistons are terrible...
TOR/OKC could be an Over, too...
Not sure if I will play anything on TUE as nothing jumps out at first blush (with no capping), although I wonder if Denver runs Detroit right out of town...Both teams 0-3, but Denver clearly the much better team and they had Miami beat until Ray Allen hit a 4-point play in the final 10 seconds to edge Denver on Saturday in Miami...
Denver will be playing their first Home game...I watched a good part of the Lakers/Pistons game SUN night and Detroit looked awful...Coach Lawrence Frank pulled all 5 starters fairly early in the 3Q (at once) as the effort was lagging at that point as the Lakers' lead ballooned to about 35...Usually I like bounce-backs from a 20+ or 30+ point loss, EXCEPT from BAD teams and Detroit is awful-bad...
I don't like laying double-digits in the NBA and rarely do it, but I lean to the Nuggets at first-blush to take out the Pistons by about 18 to 20 points because right now, the Nuggets are playing a little better than the Lake-Show as I don't believe the Lakers could stay with Miami right now like the Nuggets did on SAT...The Lakers destroying the Pistons was NO accomplishment, trust me...I mean, the Lakers went 0-8 in the Preseason and started the Regular Season 0-3, so OH BOY, the Lakers are back with their big 29-point win without Steve Nash now, huh?...Not so fast, folks, the Pistons are terrible...
TOR/OKC could be an Over, too...
Monday, November 5, 2012
Monday play, rankings...
Phoenix/Miami over 51, 1Q, laying $111 to win $100 -- I hate laying juice here, but will do it as Miami has FLOWN over both 1Q totals at Home thus far and PHOE had a 59 in the 1Q at ORL last night...I don't know how PHOE is going to stop Miami...I really don't...I think the Heat can name their score in this one...I would have to lay juice to bet the Heat at -13, but I may just do it...I like the Heat -13, the game total Over and the 1Q over...1H should go Over, too...Take Miami team totals Over, too, 1Q, 1H and/or Game...This is my only bet right now...
GL...
NY/Phi Home and Home on Bk-2-Bk days, usually this means we take the opposite side and opposite total that occurred on the front end, which makes Philly and the Over automatic plays tonight...I won't take either...I won't bet Philly because the Knicks are playing very well out of the gate...I probably should take NY ML...I can't take the Over because of the slow Pace they had yesterday...Very slow, but the only reason they hit 184 points (still was an Under, which I expected and called) was because both teams (especially the Knicks) shot well, and both teams shot very well from 3-land...So I think this may be another Under based on the Pace of Sunday's game...I don't see the Pace changing much and I don't see these teams shooting as well as Sunday, so this should be an Under...
Rankings:
Sides:
1) Mia, 2) Sac, 3) Bkn, 4) Cle, 5) Utah, 6) Phi, 7) SA, 8) Port
Totals:
1) Mia ov, 2) Phi un, 3) Sac ov, 4) Cle ov, 5) Port ov, 6) Utah ov, 7) Bkn ov, 8) SA un
GL...
NY/Phi Home and Home on Bk-2-Bk days, usually this means we take the opposite side and opposite total that occurred on the front end, which makes Philly and the Over automatic plays tonight...I won't take either...I won't bet Philly because the Knicks are playing very well out of the gate...I probably should take NY ML...I can't take the Over because of the slow Pace they had yesterday...Very slow, but the only reason they hit 184 points (still was an Under, which I expected and called) was because both teams (especially the Knicks) shot well, and both teams shot very well from 3-land...So I think this may be another Under based on the Pace of Sunday's game...I don't see the Pace changing much and I don't see these teams shooting as well as Sunday, so this should be an Under...
Rankings:
Sides:
1) Mia, 2) Sac, 3) Bkn, 4) Cle, 5) Utah, 6) Phi, 7) SA, 8) Port
Totals:
1) Mia ov, 2) Phi un, 3) Sac ov, 4) Cle ov, 5) Port ov, 6) Utah ov, 7) Bkn ov, 8) SA un
Sunday, November 4, 2012
Sunday rankings...
Sides:
1) Det, 2) Phoe, 3) Atl, 4) Min, 5) Phi
Totals:
1) Phi un, 2) Det ov, 3) Atl ov, 4) Phoe un, 5) Min un
1) Det, 2) Phoe, 3) Atl, 4) Min, 5) Phi
Totals:
1) Phi un, 2) Det ov, 3) Atl ov, 4) Phoe un, 5) Min un
Sunday plays...
Internet issues made it tough to post anything yesterday...Unfortunate as it was a decent bounce-back day from Friday...
2 plays for now:
NBA
Philadelphia/New York under 187, laying $101 to win $100 -- Knicks defense showed up for Miami, so we'll see if it shows here...Philly is well-coached and often methodical under Coach Doug Collins...Main angle here is the "early-afternoon game equals automatic Under" trend...
I am going to pick Philly here for my rankings (Not a #1 Side play, and those are 4-0-1 so far, while I won my first #1 Total last night to go to 1-4 there)...Phi/NY under is the #1 total for SUN...Rankings will be posted later in the day...
NFL
4-team, 13-point teaser
Carolina +16
Pittsburgh +16
Dallas +16.5
Philly +16
laying $140 to win $100...
GL...
2 plays for now:
NBA
Philadelphia/New York under 187, laying $101 to win $100 -- Knicks defense showed up for Miami, so we'll see if it shows here...Philly is well-coached and often methodical under Coach Doug Collins...Main angle here is the "early-afternoon game equals automatic Under" trend...
I am going to pick Philly here for my rankings (Not a #1 Side play, and those are 4-0-1 so far, while I won my first #1 Total last night to go to 1-4 there)...Phi/NY under is the #1 total for SUN...Rankings will be posted later in the day...
NFL
4-team, 13-point teaser
Carolina +16
Pittsburgh +16
Dallas +16.5
Philly +16
laying $140 to win $100...
GL...
Saturday, November 3, 2012
Saturday rankings...
Sorry for lateness, but a rough stretch here, may look to be more selective, we'll see...
Sides:
1) Port, 2) Cle, 3) GS, 4) Sac, 5) Mia, 6) NO, 7) Tor, 8) Utah, 9) Char, 10) Bos
Totals:
1) Mia ov, 2) Port ov, 3) Tor un, 4) GS ov, 5) Cle un, 6) Char un, 7) Utah ov, 8) Bos un, 9) NO un, 10) Sac ov
Sides:
1) Port, 2) Cle, 3) GS, 4) Sac, 5) Mia, 6) NO, 7) Tor, 8) Utah, 9) Char, 10) Bos
Totals:
1) Mia ov, 2) Port ov, 3) Tor un, 4) GS ov, 5) Cle un, 6) Char un, 7) Utah ov, 8) Bos un, 9) NO un, 10) Sac ov
Friday, November 2, 2012
Friday rankings...
Busy day at work catching up so not a lot of time to cap, but I did pick all 12 sides and totals and ranked them...Keep in mind that totals always start out slow for me as I need to see how teams are playing before I get a solid feel for the plays and sometimes it takes me 4 to 6 weeks into the season before I get in a good groove...Other years, I'll start seeing the totals earlier...My three #1 totals this season are 0-3 and the last 2 were not even remotely close...Top three #1 Sides are 2-0-1 so far...
Sides:
1) Char, 2) Port, 3) LAC, 4) NO, 5) Milw, 6) Orl, 7) Mia, 8) Cle, 9) Sac, 10) Hou, 11) GS, 12) Det
Totals:
1) Mia ov, 2) LAC ov, 3) Orl un, 4) Cha un, 5) Sac un, 6) NO ov, 7) Cle un, 8) Hou ov, 9) GS un, 10) Det ov, 11) Port ov, 12) Milw ov
I will hover like a vulture for 2H plays...
Sides:
1) Char, 2) Port, 3) LAC, 4) NO, 5) Milw, 6) Orl, 7) Mia, 8) Cle, 9) Sac, 10) Hou, 11) GS, 12) Det
Totals:
1) Mia ov, 2) LAC ov, 3) Orl un, 4) Cha un, 5) Sac un, 6) NO ov, 7) Cle un, 8) Hou ov, 9) GS un, 10) Det ov, 11) Port ov, 12) Milw ov
I will hover like a vulture for 2H plays...
Friday play...
NBA 2-1, +$112 posted on this blog. Also 2-1 with 2H plays posted on the ThinkDog forum (although 2H plays are VERY tough to post in a timely manner)...
Miami/New York Over 199, laying $100 to win $107 -- sold 1.5 points upward here from the original line of 197.5 to get the positive juice...Joel Anthony questionable for Miami and they basically are playing without a center which means very little posting up and slowing down the pace...The Pace in the Heat's opener, while not super-duper fast, was fairly super-fast for a Celtics' game at 94.5...The high shooting percentages for both teams put this game about 40 points Over the game total...I expect the Pace to be FASTER for this game...I don't anticipate the shooting percentages we saw in Miami's opener, however that can be offset by a faster Pace in this game...The Knicks (other than Tyson Chandler) aren't known for their defense...I am not going to risk a 1Q play here, although I think the Pace may be ridiculous in the 1Q and you should see an Over in the 1Q...But I feel the Pace should be fairly quick throughout and as long as the Knicks don't get throttled, this should go Over fairly easily...I anticipate this total moving up as the day progresses, perhaps hitting 201 or 202...
GL...
Miami/New York Over 199, laying $100 to win $107 -- sold 1.5 points upward here from the original line of 197.5 to get the positive juice...Joel Anthony questionable for Miami and they basically are playing without a center which means very little posting up and slowing down the pace...The Pace in the Heat's opener, while not super-duper fast, was fairly super-fast for a Celtics' game at 94.5...The high shooting percentages for both teams put this game about 40 points Over the game total...I expect the Pace to be FASTER for this game...I don't anticipate the shooting percentages we saw in Miami's opener, however that can be offset by a faster Pace in this game...The Knicks (other than Tyson Chandler) aren't known for their defense...I am not going to risk a 1Q play here, although I think the Pace may be ridiculous in the 1Q and you should see an Over in the 1Q...But I feel the Pace should be fairly quick throughout and as long as the Knicks don't get throttled, this should go Over fairly easily...I anticipate this total moving up as the day progresses, perhaps hitting 201 or 202...
GL...
Thursday, November 1, 2012
THUR play...
Oklahoma City/San Antonio Over 51.5, 1Q, laying $100 to win $105 -- 1Q Overs are 9-2-1 so far this season, I believe and in games where a team was playing a back-ender, the 1Q Over is 2-0 so far...I was going to take the game total Over, which I think will hit, but looking at some past games, for the most part, if the 1Q doesn't hit, the the game total most likely will not, so I will take the plus-juice on the 1Q Over...
GL...
GL...
I have power...
Just came back on and I am just looking at tonight's game for the first time...Had the day off from work so no access to internet till 10 minutes ago...
Tough call here...Initial lean to Spurs due to the revenge factor trend as OKC eliminated them from the playoffs last season and the Spurs play them for the first time this season, BUT, SA on the back-end of a back-to-back...I wonder how fluid OKC will be with K'Mart on the squad and never having played a single minute with this team and how this will effect the rotations, but man, it sure didn't matter with HOU last night as they outscored DET by 17 in the 4Q after trailing by 8 after the 3Q...
Tough call here...Initial lean to Spurs due to the revenge factor trend as OKC eliminated them from the playoffs last season and the Spurs play them for the first time this season, BUT, SA on the back-end of a back-to-back...I wonder how fluid OKC will be with K'Mart on the squad and never having played a single minute with this team and how this will effect the rotations, but man, it sure didn't matter with HOU last night as they outscored DET by 17 in the 4Q after trailing by 8 after the 3Q...
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