Toronto 2H...

Close enough to fitting the criteria, so I will take a shot here:

Toronto Raptors -3, 2H, laying $100 to win $107...

GL...

OKC 2H...

This does not qualify as a play criteria-wise, but the value is undeniable, so I will take a stab on the value alone...

Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5, 2H, laying $107 to win $100...

GL...

looking for a solid 2H play tonight...

6-2 on the week as I have played more game lines this week than any other week...

2 borderline 2H plays on the 7:00 games that I am not taking these because I feel rushed as I just logged on to my pc tonight after a long day at work, but 2H DET over and WAS under are borderline plays...

I am looking for 2H plays tonight, but will pass on these...Just mentioning as I will we curious to see how they do...

Toronto 2H...

Not crazy about this one as DEN has blown a lot of teams out but this game fits my criteria...

Toronto Raptors +1.5, 2H, laying $113, to win $100...

GL...

Indy...

Indiana Pacers -4, laying $108 to win $100 -- I lost some value by not beating the line move, but that Celtic's comeback last night in the 2H should show up tonight and drain Boston as the game progresses...

GL...

NY...

New York Knicks +11.5, laying $100 to win $100 -- I gave my reasons...They may get mauled by 25+ tonight as nobody is giving them a chance in hell, well, except me...I like the situational spot...

GL...

NY Knicks?...

No Melo for the Knicks while Wade returns for Miami...Everyone and their brother and their brother's brother is all over Miami...Blowout-city, baby...

But not me...

Once Melo was announced as OUT, I liked the Knicks a little bit already because I think this Knicks team will have more ball movement without Melo on the floor...They won't be standing around watching him throw up shots all night...

Then it was announced that Wade is back for Miami...

And now I really like this play...Miami will have to adjust their rotations and Wade will have to work his way into game-shape...

The Knicks will have the motivation as they try and prove they can win without Melo...

I am just waiting for the line to top out before I grab it...

ThinkDog forum...

ThinkDog is still alive and well and with a new look...

Lot of good cappers on Board there...

Link: ThinkDog

Rondo out, taking ORL...

Up about 9 units on the year with minimal plays and betting 1 unit a game...

Orlando Magic -10, laying $104 to win $100 -- Rondo is OUT tonight according to the NBA blog TBT, "Ten Before Tip", so I am taking the Magic to exact some payback in this short-revenge spot where they lost by 31 to the Celtics on Monday at Boston...

GL...

Orlando tonight?...Hmmm...

Overall: 24-14-1

NBA: 22-14-1

Record is being tracked on a tracking site...

Site: Tracking

I am torn here with this Orlando game...

Same situation (for me trying to decide whether to play this or not) as the Wizards game last night...The Wizards had a GREAT situational spot, but I didn't like the inflated line as there was no value in that line...So I let the line scare me off a game where the situational spot has been a proven winner over the years (5-0 ATS this season, counting the NFL)...

Now another one of my favorite spots arises tonight...The short-revenge spot, where 2 teams play each other twice during the same week...The short-handed Celtics slaughtered the Magic by 31 at Boston 3 days ago...So the Magic are the "automatic" play for me tonight in this short-revenge spot...And my "automatic plays" do well season in and season out for years...

But again, I just don't like the line...No value there for me...I can see this getting back-doored...

Yet I remember a handicapper giving me this advice over 20 years ago: "Don't even look at the line. If the situational spot is a proven winner, then the line doesn't even matter"...

And I am torn there, too, with that advice, because I generally will look for value in a line wherever I can find it...Although there are instances where I simply don't care what the line is when a super-strong spot comes up...

Is this a super-strong spot?...

I said at the start of this week that I am determined to have a good week and all 7 plays I talked about and liked this week have won...7-0...I only played 4 of them, but still...

I like Orlando here as the situational spot SCREAMS for a pick on them, but I will wait until the TNT pregame show to make sure Rondo isn't playing for Boston and then I will make the decision...But I am leaning to making Orlando a play tonight...

We'll see...

Taking GS & LAL...

Taking:

Golden State Warriors -3.5, laying $104 to win $100 -- Portland 3rd game in 3 days and terrible on the Road...Looking for GS to play 48 minutes tonight...


Los Angeles Lakers -4, laying $106 to win $100 -- The Lake-Show owes the Clip-Joint one as the Clippers have beaten this team 3 times already (including Preseason) and I am sure the Lakers are tired of hearing it...Lakers have more motivation here...

Will be looking for 2H plays...

GL...

I cannot give 7 with the Wiz...

Washington has the new coach angle tonight, which went 3-0 in the NFL this season and is already 1-0 in the NBA (SAC) for 4-0 (and I was on all 4), and Vegas has already made the adjustment here as this line is insane as who are the Wiz to be favored by 7 over anybody?...I may have to pass as CHAR lost by 33 last night and I generally like teams losing by 30+ next time out, although I like GOOD teams a lot better than a bad one like CHA in this spot...

PORT 3rd game in 3 nights and they are atrocious on the Road so far...GS would be a lot better at home if they weren't blowing big leads every other home game...Have a lean here to GS, for sure as I think Coach Mark Jackson is going to make sure this team plays 48 minutes tonight instead of the 36 they played against Memphis 2 nights ago when they blew a 17-point 4Q lead...

Busy night at work for me as I will try and find 2H plays...I may take GS...We'll see...

Orlando Magic...

Orlando Magic +3, laying $103 to win $100 -- I need to start playing more "automatic plays" and this one is about as automatic as it gets...Doesn't mean it will win, but if you play these situations over time, you will win more than you lose...ORL shot 24.6% from the field last night at Boston...I'll be honest here...I cannot remember the last time I saw a team shoot that low for an entire game...I may have to go back to the last strike seaosn of 1998-99...I always take teams, good teams, that is, off horrid shooting nights, and I also take teams, good teams, off 30+ point losses, Automatically, and we have ORL hitting both of those criteria last night...No major minutes played by anyone (nobody over 25 minutes) except for some reason, Stan Van Gundy left Dwight Howard out there for 35 minutes (maybe he didn't want to lose by 40)...So a big-time bounce-back spot for the Magic and they are playing a Pacers team in a slight let-down spot as they just beat the Lake-Show at Staples on Sunday...First game Home after a brief 3-game road trip for the Pacers...ORL has basically owned this Pacers team the past few seasons, which doesn't mean crap tonight, but the Magic certainly aren't going to be intimidated going into Conseco when they have beaten them thre 3 straight times...Strong bounce-back spot vs. a let-down spot and we have a top-tier team in the strong bounce-back spot, so I am contractually obligated to make this play...

GL...

Grizz 2H...

I am not playing this one as I have my 1-unit made for the night, but my gut is telling me this is a play as Memphis had a nice 12-2 run late in the 1H to cut it to 7 before a GS basket made it a 9-point deficit at the half...Memphis hadn't even had a FT attempt until that 12-2 run in the final 4 minutes of the half...Coach Lionel Hollins has been barking at the refs so I see the Grizz going to the FT line a LOT more in the 2H...

A borderline play that meets enough qualifications to be a 2H play and I think it will be a win, but I will pass...

Pistons qualify...

Detroit qualifies as a 2H play, but I will pass because they are terrible...

I was going to grab them on the 4Q line, except in their against Memphis, they were down 20 at the half and won the 3Q by 10 points before getting smashed in the 4Q...OKC is a team that gets beat in the 4Q though, when they have huge leads and pull all of their starters...

So I will watch this one...No play...I am losing too many games taking bad teams...Sure, the Wizards are BAD, but they have been playing better the past week and was worth a shot tonight and they covered the 2H line easily...

New week, time for a turnaround...

Super-busy week last week, missed some opportunities and it hurt as the ones I took were losses...Looking to turn it around this week...Determined...

Washington Wizards +0.5, 2H, laying $115 to win $100...Criteria met, need to have the Wiz show some pride in the 2H...

GL...

2H -- Sac/Memp Under...

Sacramento/Memphis Under 95, 2H, laying $110 to win $100...

GL...

2H -- Sac/Memp Under...

Sacramento/Memphis Under 94.5, 2H, laying $110 to win $100...

GL...

2H CLE...

Taking the Cavs, 2H...Passing on DET as they meet my 2H criteria, but their 3-12 record scares me away...

Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $100...

GL...

2H plays...

Milwaukee Bucks -3.5, 2H, laying $110 to win $100...

Phoenix/Chicago Under 90.5, 2H,  laying $110 to win $100...

GL...

2H play...

Wish I would have waited for the half...

Kings 17% shooting in the 1H...

Really?...

I am contractually obligated to take SAC in the 2H with the 35% FG% difference at the half...

Sacramento Kings -0.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $100...

GL...

Kings...

Sacramento Kings +12.5, laying $109 to win $100 -- Classic game where an Away team playing their 4th game in 5 nights is playing a Home team playing their 4th game in 5 nights (or even worse)...Three example tonight: Philly, PORT and SAC the "automatic plays", hope I didn't pick the wrong one of the 3 here as Philly is covering easily...

GL...

GS, 2H play...

Taking Golden State Warriors -6, laying $113 to win $100...

GL...

Celtics...

Boston Celtics -5, 2H, laying $100 to win $100...

GL...

2H play...

Been super-busy at work all week...

Portland Trailblazers -4, 2H, laying $110 to win $100...

GL...

one play so far...

Busy as heck all day at work, but I took the Sacramento Kings +9.5, laying $108 to win $100...

GL...

2H looks...

I got home a little bit ago and saw CHI down 4 with 4:11 left in the half, then went and grabbed a cheesesteak, checked it again, and they are down 18...

So this one is a lost cause, but the Under and the Bulls are decent 2H plays...I will stay away because CHI is a borderline play, like PORT was last night...

I will pass on all 3 potential 2H plays and just watch...

2H looks...

I got home a little bit ago and saw CHI down 4 with 4:11 left in the half, then went and grabbed a cheesesteak, check it again, and they are down 18...

So this one is a lost cause, but the Under and the Bulls are decent 2H plays...I will stay away because CHI is a borderline play, like PORT was last night...The reason I took PORT was because PORT was down 15 at the half, the 2H line was -5 for PORT, which meant that if they lost by 7, 8 or 9, I would have won with 7 being arguably the only key number in the NBA as that is the deficit when most teams "quit" at the end of the game so that number factors into all of 2H plays...

Same with the cross-over zero 2H line...We have that with the Indy game at the half...Even though the 1H stats do not dictate in any way shape or form that Indy is a 2H play, the "cross-over zero" comes into play as basically all Indy has to do is win the game by 2 or 3 (depending on the line you get) and you win your 2H bet, so you have "value" in taking Indy...

I will pass on all 3 potential 2H plays and just watch...

2H looks...

I got home a little bit ago and saw CHI down 4 with 4:11 left in the half, then grab a cheesesteak, check it again, and they are down 18...

So this one is a lost cause, but the Under and the Bulls are decent 2H plays...I will stay away because CHI is a borderline play, like PORT was last night...The reason I took PORT was because PORT was down 15 at the half, the 2H line was -5 for PORT, which meant that if they lost by 7, 8 or 9, I would have won with 7 being arguably the only key number in the NBA as that is the deficit when most teams "quit" at the end of the game so that number factors into all of 2H plays...

Same with the cross-over zero 2H line...We have that with the Indy game at the half...Even though the 1H stats do not dictate in any way shape or form that Indy is a 2H play, the "cross-over zero" comes into play as basically all Indy has to do is win the game by 2 or 3 (depending on the line you get) and you win your 2H bet, so you have "value" in taking Indy...

I will pass on all 3 potential 2H plays and just watch...

one play so far...

Just started looking at the Board and although I HATE this line, I feel that I am contractually obligated to bet this play based on the trends and situational factors involved...

Chicago Bulls -5.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I hate this this line...it is completely over-adjusted and it wouldn't surprise me to see ATL lose but cover this inflated line...But I am playing the situational spot..ATL has played 2 straight overtimes and some of their players have logged heavy minutes...It is their 3rd game in 3 nights, 5th game in 7 nights and 7th game in 9 nights...Yes, 7th game in 9 nights...happened about 6 times in 1998-99 and teams playing 7 games in 9 days covered more than you think...But the home team did not do as well as the away team covering this spot during that season...Also in 1998-99, teams playing their 4th games in 5 nights (Chicago, tonight) were 4-0 ATS playing a team who was playing their 3rd game in 3 nights (Atlanta, tonight)...3-0 ATS on the Road, to break it down further...Teams playing 4 games in 5 nights historically do well on the Road, not counting certain situations, so this is a GREAT spot for Chicago...It would have been even BETTER had the Bulls lost to ATL a few nights ago and/or lost to ORL last night, but I am going to hop that ATL peters out in the 2H of this game and CHI gets over this somewhat lofty number...

And one final note: I mentioned this before and I will do it again, but in 1998-99, in games where at least one team was playing their 3rd game in 3 nights, the Away team has dominated...NOT the case in 2011-12, as I have mentioned and I have been on the Home teams thus far...This year, the Home teams have been 4-0 ATS in this spot...I feel this very successful spot in 1998-99 is certainly "due" to hit here, so Chicago is the pick for me, despite having absolutely no value whatsoever with this inflated line...

GL...

updating record...

Overall 15-7-1, +$782
NBA 13-7-1, +$574

All picks tracked at TipsterPicks.com), although I got a better line there and I am 16-7, +$882, there...

Will be looking at today's board shortly...

taking PORT...

Screw it...I am taking PORT...Afetr all, this is why they call it gambling...Got to be in to win it...Lots of value here...Can't pass it up...

Portland Trailblazers -5, 2H, laying $105 to win $100...

GL...

decent 2nd half look...

I just got home and see the Lakers total is a lost cause...Looked at the 2nd half Over and the Lakers 2H, but in all honesty, I would be forcing these because they don't meet the criteria for a 2H play, although there is value taking the Lakers because the -9 crosses over Zero and you only need the Lakers to win by 5 to push, but I will not do that...

Borderline play on Portland...It's actually more than borderline and just barely qualifies as a 2H play and there is major value here taking PORT, but man, I don't want to risk finishing 1-2 for the night as I will take the split, but to be honest, PORT should cover this 2H line...Debating hard on this one as I shouldn't NOT play it because I don't want a losing night, I should just make the damn play...

Playing a total...

Golden State/LA Lakers Over 185.5, laying $106 to win $100 -- No time for a write-up, but yeah, Curry is out and GS has nobody who can score outside of Ellis as Wright's outside shot has been non-existent this season after leading the league in 3's last season...However, the Lakers should be able to score 110 themselves tonight as their offense is coming together and even more importantly to me, this is a double-chart play, so I am contractually bound to play this game, according to my own "rules of engagement"...

GL...

2H play...

Indiana/Boston Over 90.5, laying $100 to win $100 -- The pace is slow, but this is in insanely low total for 2 teams who have a fair amount of Overs thus far this season... There are other reasons, but no time to post...

GL...

a few leans...

Busy day at work, but I just took a cursory look at the board with my paper charts in hand and I have 4 leans:

GS/LAL Over
CLE
DET
IND

The first 2 are chart-plays, and for those of you who know me, you know what those are...

I am NOT betting all 4...As a matter of fact, as of this minute, the total will probably be my only bet/play as I want to take CLE, but Minny coming off that loss bothers me just enough to keep from being a bet...

I will wait and see if this total moves down any more before playing it, but the moment I see it starting to rise (if it rises), I will post it...

I was dying to play the Wizards tonight as I always look to bet a team that hasn't won a game this far into the season, especially when they are a DOG, but a bad break here as they are playing the Knicks, who just had 2 embarrassing Home losses and are probably glad to get out of NY, where the pressure will be off and they can potentially take their frustrations out on the Wizards...Plus, the Knicks haven't lost 3 in a row yet, they win, lose 2, then win, then lose 2...

2H play...

Looks like a bad night, but this play MORE than qualifies as a play as I am tempted to put 2 units on it, but I won't because as soon as I get hot again, I will probably flat-bet 2 units for a spell...

Sacramento Kings -3.5, 2H, laying $108 to win $100...

GL...

2H play...

I will take:

Dallas Mavericks -5, laying $100 to win $107 -- Just hoping the Mavs don't quit here...If they don't quit, they should get this and keep this under a 20-point deficit...

GL...

2 plays tonight...

I had today's MIA/ATL circled as soon as ATL beat the Heat on Monday as a nice revenge spot, but that is washed out with the injuries of LeBron and D-Wade, so this will be a pass and I would love to take this total Under, but the status of those makes it tougher because if they play, it may or should go Over, but if they don't, it should definitely go Under...

But 2 other plays have surfaced for me tonight...

Sacramento Kings +2.5, laying $104 to win $100 -- New coach angle...Works across multiple sports...Was 3-0 in the NFL this season ATS, and I was on all 3 of them...First opportunity this year and I'll take a stab as most trends favor SAC here except for the one where "you take a team coming off a bad shooting night where their FG% was less than 33%" and Milwaukee actually shot less than 31% two nights ago...But the Kings have the new coach angle, they have the bounce-back angle from a 27-point loss and they have a budding angle for this season where a home team playing their 3rd game in 3 nights is 3-0 ATS ...

Now I mentioned how the Away teams dominated ALL games in 1998-99 (the last strike season) where we had either team playing 3 games in 3 nights...Huge numbers that season for the Away team and I don't have time to explain why those were easy plays that season, because I had one of my best (if not my best) season ever that year and I was all over the Away teams in this spot 13 years ago...But I did warn that for this season, it doesn't guarantee anything...

This year, I have been on the Home team every time in this spot...Vegas isn't stupid...They know what happened in 1998-99...And the line has been over-adjusted, in my opinion, early in this season...And no instance was more true than when Denver played their 3rd game in 3 nights against this same MIL team just 3 nights ago and the Bucks had 2 nights rest for that one and the Nuggets covered by half a point due to the over-adjustment...

The Bucks are banged up, no Kogut, and to me, the over-riding trend is the new coach angle as Kings' players did NOT play a ton of minutes last night as only one starter played more than 28 minutes...And these guys (outside of Hayes and Salmons) are a young group, so I don't see tired legs as an issue tonight, despite their 3rd game in 3 nights...

The Kings' only 2 wins are at home and they will have the motivational edge tonight, as do just about all teams playing the first night of a midseason coaching change, do...

Portland Trailblazers -3.5, laying $103 to win $100 -- Sure, the Lakers are the public darlings, but I don't quite get this line and wonder if the sharps are going to pound it up to 4 or 4.5 in the next few hours...The Lakers have struggled at the Rose Garden in recent years...Sure, they won 2 of the last 3 (one in OT), but had lost 9 straight at PORT before that...These PORT fans are always up for this one...

And I know the Vegas line is made to get equal action on both sides based on public perception, but I see some major value in taking the Blazers tonight if you look at this game with minimum of effort...I generally look at FG% for and against (among other things) and yes, LAL is 2nd in the league in FG% against, while PORT is only 14th, BUT, look at who PORT has played:

LAC (2nd in FG% for), PHI (3rd), DEN (5th), OKC (7th) in 4 of their 5 games, so I think that #14 ranking is skewed a bit...LAL is 0-2 on the Road...So if you throw out public perception, I think the line should be higher, so I will take PORT and some value...

Editor's note: I started this thread an hour ago, but my sister stopped by with her kids and I had a 45-minute break after typing the first few paragraphs...

GL...

2H play...

Indiana Pacers -2, 2H, laying $101 to win $100...

GL

Before it goes up any further...

Missed out on the 203.5, but I will still take this total Over:

Houston/LA Clippers Over 206, laying $108 to win $100...

GL...

Taking a shot...

Overall 10-3

NBA 8-3

Atlanta/Chicago over 89.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $106 -- I don't like the Pace, but it's just close enough to make a play with these horrid shooting percentages...Got plus-juice, too, so I couldn't resist...Wish I would not have backed off playing the Hawks...

GL...

2 looks...

Super-busy night here at work, so little time to post after a 5-0 night on Monday...

Atlanta has a TON of trends in their favor tonight and I almost played them, despite being the "square" play of the night as the public is on them at the rate of about 55%, yet the line is going up...Reverse line movement in the Bulls favor...

Only reason I am not playing ATL is because of the huge let-down spot after beating Miami last night, plus, it is their 6th game in 8 nights, which doesn't scare me too much, really...

We'll see how it plays out...Lean to Atlanta and Milwaukee, too...

Another 2H play...

San Antonio/Minnesota Under 97, 2H, laying $106 to win $100...

GL...

2H pick...

6-3, Overall, 4-3 NBA, 2 pending...

New York Knicks -8.5, 2H, laying $111 to win $100...

GL...

2 more plays...

4-3 in NBA and 6-3 Overall...

Washington Wizards +10.5, laying $103 to win $100 -- Celtics were atrocious in their only other back-ender and this is a home-and-home revenge spot for the Wiz, hungry for their first win...

Dallas Mavericks +2.5, laying $103 to win $100 -- Another short-timeframe-revenge game for the Mavs here as they should be hungry to knock off the unbeaten Thunder as this should come down to the wire...

GL...

NBA afternoon play

3-3 on the year...May start making more plays, we'll see...

Golden State/Phoenix Under 194, laying $104 to win $100 -- taking the afternoon under trend I have talked about for years...Automatic play...

GL...

2H play...

Memphis Grizzlies -1, 2H, laying $105 to win $100...

GL...

2H looks...

The Wizards and the Bobcats are leans for me on the 2H lines...I won't take them this early in the season because they are lower-echelon teams going against top-flyte teams...

Orlando doesn't fit as an official 2nd-half play because it doesn't meet my criteria for 2H plays, but they are on the cusp and it is a friendly "cross-over-zero" situation with the half-time score and the 2H line, so another lean to them...

But again, I am passing on all 3 and will just take mental notes...

Happy New Year...

Been taking it easy with plays although I shouldn't be as I had a red-hot Week 1, but only made 5 plays, going 3-2...

I am only going to be looking for 2H plays tonight again, but there are 3 "natural" or "default" plays tonight, which is another one of my favorites, tried and true over time, and it's the "short revenge" trend, where 2 teams play each other twice in less than 10 days...

The team that loses the first game usually covers the 2nd game and the play is stronger if the team that loses also does not cover...Also, the total will generally reverse itself for the 2nd game...

This trend is 3-0 ATS with the sides and 2-1 ATS with the totals already this year for a 5-1 record...

We have 2 games tonight, CHAR at MIA and LAL at DEN...Technically, the Sides aren't quite as strong because both teams that lost (CHAR & DEN) covered the spread in Game 1 of their matchups...

Previous games:

NJ got obliterated in Game 1 vs. ATL and then covered the 2nd game...
PHOE lost to NO and then handled them the 2nd time...
DET lost to IND and then beat them the 2nd time around...

All 3 losses were also NC's...

The NJ total went from Under to Over...
Both PHOE games stayed Under...
The DET total went from Under to Over...

So I have leans to DEN and the Over and I also like the Dal/Min Over...Not sold on CHAR...