Wednesday, February 29, 2012

passing on Port 2H...

Doesn't qualify as a play, BUT, very, very good value here...I should take them...

I will pass and probably regret it, as ATL, BOS and NY all covered their 2H lines tonight and I passed on all 3...

passing on Knicks 2H...

Everyone jumping on them but it doesn't qualify as a play for me and the 2H line doesn't work well with the Knicks' 1H deficit here...NY basically has to win this game to cover the 2H line, which, they certainly can, but since it isn't crossing zero and the number doesn't have the Knicks losing by 7 or more, so I will pass...

Just like the GS/Atl game tonight, there is LOTS of value on the game line, but there isn't a ton of value on the 2H line because of where the 2H number take you in regards to where both of those teams need to go to cover: It is too close to zero without crossing zero, so I passed on ATL and NY tonight...BOS is actually a better play on the 2H line value-wise because the 2H line crosses zero...Doesn't mean ATL and NY won't cover, but I am simply looking to maximize value on multiple levels...

stalking 2H plays 2nite...

I usually like to layoff game lines the first day or 2 back after the break...

Hornets a true chart-play still going on the game line...They have covered 7 straight (C7) after not covering their previous 8 in a row (NC8)...Be interesting t see where this ends although most streaks that get as high as 7 end at 7...

Cavs +10 looks juicy, but I think the Knicks may make a run in the 2H and if Kobe doesn't play, I like the Under at Staples...

I'll be looking for 2H plays...

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Mavs 2H tempting...

I am going to pass though...Pretty much qualifies, and the value is tremendous, but I remember NJ holding on to beat NY before the break even though NY took some runs at ht eNJ lead in the 2H at MSG, so I will pass and probably regret it...WASH was a borderline play, too, that I passed on...

We'll see if the 2 late games bring anything...

Friday, February 24, 2012

Shaq vs Chuck...

The only play that's worth looking at is the 2H Over as there has been NO defense in these games in the 2H the past several year as they have basically turned into dunk contests in the 2H...

I don't even see 1H lines anywhere this year and Pinnacle has a game line, but I don't see anything at Olympic for this game at all...

Total was insanely, which reflects the scores (and Overs) of the past few years, so we'll see if they even half a 2nd half line tonight, but I doubt if I will bet it...

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Denver 2H...

Blew it by not taking Orlando and Miami 3Q, but I will take:

Denver Nuggets -4.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $103 -- hoping the Nuggets don't lay down in the 2H and maybe being at Home may prevent that...

GL...

Miami...

I am late getting to the blog, but to me looks like a statement game for Miami...I think they hammer NY here...The thing that scares me into NOT betting it is because NY has J.R. smith and now Melo back and if they can get hot, they can light it up from the outside & the Heat defense has been suspect at times guarding the perimeter...

I am not betting it but will look for a 2H play...

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Board meeting...

I have a Board Meeting tonight, so I will miss all of the 7:00 games on the 2H lines and I may miss the first 10 games on the tonight's NBA board on the 2H line, unfortunately...Bad night for a meeting with 13 games on the slate...

Have one lean to Dallas tonight...Hornets are still a chart-play, covering 5 straight after a NC8, but that is losing some steam now and this is their 3rd game in 3 nights...

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

SA 2H?...

Nahhh...Going to pass here...

Qualifies as a play and I'll probably regret not taking it, but SA may mail this in without Parker and Duncan, although PORT may pull their starters pretty early if it stays above 25...

I am not playing it, but SA should cover the 2H line...

Indy 2H?...

This is the craziest day at work in quite a while as I haven't even looked at game lines but quick looked at the 7:00 2H opportunities, and well, this Under should come in on this NO/Indy game (in the 2H), but I will pass, because I feel rushed here and just got a passing glance at this one...

Taking Indy in the 2H pretty much qualifies as a play, too, and you have the crossover zero bonus, but again, I feel so rushed here and actually noticed the 3Q just started, so no bet for me...

I'll sit this one out and hope SAC can somehow hold on and be up at the half at Miami...And if that happens, I am all over Miami in the 2H...

Monday, February 20, 2012

passing on Port 2H...

I am probably stupid for passing on this one, BUT it doesn't qualify as a play by my criteria, however, as a value play, this one is off the charts...PORT can lose by 18 and we push, lose by 17 or less and we win...Hard to pass that up, but since I am 2-0 on the night and already feel stupid for not betting the game line for the Lakers (and the only reason I passed there is because NJ won easily and the Hornets back-doored their number as I felt strongly they would), so I played the odds and figured it's tough for most people to go 3-0 in the NBA on their top 3 picks (even me), so I passed...

I am also passing on this PORT/LAL Over 2H as it is a borderline play as I wonder about something a Swedish professional handicapper told me about 6 years ago when I used to talk to him online daily during the NBA season, and that was when the 2Q is somewhat significantly higher-scoring than the 1Q, then the 2H will go Over...

I will have to research that one in my database, after all, I have 31 seasons to back-check this with...It makes sense and I have seen it happen plenty of times, but I guess I am going to have to sit down and one day and crunch those numbers a few different ways to see if there is any truth to that theory...

But man, I don't see how Portland doesn't cover this 2H line, I really don't...

Memp/Hou Under 2H...

Have to do it...

Memphis/Houston under 93.5, 2H, laying $105 to win $100 -- The PACE not there, as both teams are shooting lights out...

GL...

NOH 2H...

New Orleans Hornets -1, 2H, laying $100 to win $104...

Was debating between a 4Q play or 2H play...I'll go with the 2H play as it qualifies...

GL...

passing on NY 2H...

Tempting, but this does not match my criteria for a 2H bet at all, not even close as NY is actually out-shooting NJ for the 1H...

Lots of value here though taking the Knicks as we have a cross-over zero situation, so all the Knicks have to do is win the game to cover the 2H line...Lots of value there, but since I liked NJ to begin with, I have to pass here...

NJ is up because they shot lights out from 3-point range...So that percentage will come down, but they could easily still shoot at an even pace with NY from the field (excluding treys) which makes this a non-play from a 2H bet criteria standpoint...

President's Day looks...

I am not taking anything but I am looking for 2H plays for tonight...

I like NJ and NOH (Hornets are still a chart-play as they have covered 3 straight after Not covering 8 in a row)...NJ playing their 3rd in 3 nights doesn't bother me...I like the Lakers, too, and I may take them yet, as despite some inner "turmoil" with the Gasol "trade" situation, the Lake-Show has found safe haven at Staples recently and are playing well at home...

I will be stalking for 2H opportunities...

Sunday, February 19, 2012

LAL 2H...

Doesn't qualify as a criteria play, but I'll take it as a value play...

Los Angeles Lakers -6.5, 2H, laying $105 to win $100...

GL...

Saturday, February 18, 2012

Atlanta 2H...

borderline play, but I'll take a shot...

Atlanta Hawks -2, 2H, laying $100 to win $108...

GL...

afternoon game...

The automatic play is the Under here...

I am not taking it, I will pass...

Took the last 2 days off as it has been crazy at work, working 67 hours last week and busy this week and I am beat down...At work now...Of course, I would have done great on 2H plays the last 2 days but passed on everything...

I think I will keep my game plays down to  a bare minimum and go back to the formula that was working, only top game plays and 2H plays as I have bumped up the number of plays this month and am 9-11-1 for the month as a result...I will try and finish strong by going to my strength, which is 2H plays as I just don't have the time to cap the games most days, but I can recognize a strong 2H play in less than 30 seconds...

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Sac & Indy, 2H...

Sacramento Kings -2, 2H, laying $100 to win $100...

Indiana Pacers -4, 2H, laying $110 to win $100...

GL

Philly 2H...

Philadelphia 76ers -3, 2H, laying $107 to won $100...

GL...

3 plays...

0-2 yesterday to bring me down to 7-8 for FEB...I will revert back to the "old" Brewers7 for a night and take the first 3 plays that jumped out at me for various reasons...Also, 3 Dogs and I have always been a Dog player in the NBA...

Sacramento Kings +6, laying $105 to win $100 -- Kings have played NY tough at MSG, winning 4 straight and this is a chart-play of sorts against the Knicks...Both teams scorching hot (SAC hot against the spread at least, 8 of 9), while Linsanity rues NY, winning 6 straight and NY is 7-1-1 ATS their last 9...The Knicks finally did not cover a game with Jeremy Lin starting and they were lucky to win last night...Nothing lasts forever, as Linsanity has to lose some time, and even if the Knicks, who have struggled at MSG win, I still have 6 points with the Kings...MSG will be raucous, but that doesn't bother me and hopefully it won't bother the Kings...Tyreke Evans is a physical guard and he may wear Linsanity down tonight...

Toronto Raptors +7, laying $105 to win $100 -- Chart-play against the Spurs, who didn't cover last night after covering 7 straight...They have won 8 straight...Toronto's improved defense should keep them in this one as I think  they can knock off the Spurs here and if they don't, I still have the 7 points on my side...Spurs have been better this year on back-enders, but I am taking the points...

Washington Wizards +13, laying $105 to win $100 -- Classic spot where I fade the team playing their first home game after a long road trip...Wizards played lights out last night, so hopefully they can carry that momentum into this one...

GL...

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Portland, 2H...

Portland Trailblazers -10.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $106...

GL...

Indy 4Q...

Regretting not taking Miami, which was my top side and I mentioned them earlier...

I am going to pass on this but want to make a note that Indiana qualifies as a 2H play, but I don't want to lay the 5 or 5.5 with the way Miami is playing right now...I almost took Indy in the 4Q as I think that is the play to make here, but I'll watch and probably regret not playing the 4Q line...

Knicks a borderline play but I am passing as the 2H line takes it below 7, the only "key" number in the NBA, in my opinion, so for the Knicks to cover the 2H line, they would have to lose by 5 or they can puch if they lose by 6, but bother numbers are under 7, so I will pass...

Heat Over...

Miami/Indiana Over 197, laying $110 to win $100 -- Total suddenly jumping as it just rose to 197.5 at Pinny and is going up some more, so I will grab it now as it is still 197 at a lot of shops, but Indy is 4-0 to the Over when they have rest and their opponent does not and the Miami Pace has been quick recently...

GL...

Other looks: I almost feel like riding Miami right now as they are clicking on all cylinders, but I'll pass tonight and probably regret it...All trends point to Utah tonight, but man, they are just bad on the Road and I will lay off this one, too...A decent spot for an Over in that Utah/OKC game, too...

Monday, February 13, 2012

2H Over...

GS shot terribly for most of the 1H but the pace is fine for an Over...

Phoenix/Golden State Over 101, 2H, laying $100 to win $102...

GL...

Phoe/GS Over 1Q...

Phoenix/Golden State Over 51.5, 1Q, laying $108 to win $100 -- Suns 8 straight Overs in the 1Q and Warriors 4 straight Overs in the 1Q...I want to take the game total Over, but both of these teams seem to have diminishing scoring numbers after the 1Q (there are exceptions, of course) but their 1Q Overs are out-numbering their game total overs recently...

GL...

One more play to come...

Actually, I just looked at the injury report and there is no way I can take the Hornets tonight as they have have their roster OUT or questionable tonight...

GREAT spot for the Hornets getting Utah off a big win at Memphis, but I cannot take a team with this many guys out as Kaman and Okafor are questionable and I don't know who can step up here if they both miss...

Miami Heat, statement game?...

Miami Heat -6.5, laying $105 to win $100...

You may be saying to yourself, "Brewers7, what the heck are you talking about, 'Statement game' -- C'mon, give us a break, this is the Bucks, who have fallen to 9th in the East and are struggling like crazy"...

I know...

I also know that you will go to the poor-house fairly quickly trying to make ends meat as a bettor taking Road Favorites in the NBA...

But I have mentioned at least once on this blog that Milwaukee is currently suffering from post-Kogut-injury syndrome, a condition that was overcome the first couple of games without Bogut as the team rose up to win a few games, but the reality of life without one of the best shot-blockers in the league, not to mention his inside scoring ability and rebounding, is setting in as Milwaukee has gone 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6...

But back to the "statement game" thing I mentioned...

The Bucks have beaten the Heat both times they have played them this season...And the last time was one of those wins the Bucks had without Bogut...

Do you really think the Heat want to lose to the Bucks 3 times in a row?...

You need to remember a few things about that last game at MILW without Bogut where the Bucks won 105-97...Miami led by 17 after the 1st quarter...And Brandon Jennings was 7-for-14 from 3-point range in that game for 31 points...Do you think Jennings is going to hit 7 more treys this time around?...Can you say "adjustments" Coach Spoelstra?...Can you say "motivational edge", LeBron, D-Wade and Mr. Bosh?...

Can YOU say, "Let's grab this overnight line at 6.5, a whisker below the only key number in the NBA (7) before it goes up before the tip to probably 7.5"?...

I am not worried about the Heat being 2-5 ATS in back-enders this season because that is cancelled out by MILW being 1-3 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not, and 2 of those Not Covers were against teams playing their 3rd game in 3 nights...Ok, the one Cover was against Miami, but again, irrelevant to me because I always look for the team with the motivational edge and I don't see Miami blowing another big lead this time around and believe me, they'll be up double-digits at some point in this one, maybe even the in the 1Q again...

I realize Miami plays at Indiana on Tuesday for their 3rd game in 3 nights, if they do get up big, they will rest their starters in the 4Q, but I am hoping the Heat will be up about 20+ like they were against Atlanta on Sunday...No big minutes played by Heat players on Sunday...

The Heat do have their unbeatable stretches at times and I am hoping they are in the midst of one now...

I like 2 other plays for Monday, but will wait on the lines...

GL...

Miami Heat, statement game?...

Miami Heat -6.5, laying $105 to win $100...

You may be saying yourself, "Brewers7, what the heck are you talking about, 'Statement game' -- C'mon, give us a break, this is the Bucks, who have fallen to 9th in the East and are struggling like crazy"...

I know...

I also know that you will go to the poor-house fairly quickly trying to make ends meat as a bettor taking Road Favorites in the NBA...

But I have mentioned at least once on this blog that Milwaukee is currently suffering from post-Kogut-injury syndrome, a condition that was overcome the first couple of games without Bogut as the team rose up to win a few games, but the reality of life without one of the best shot-blockers in the league, not to mention his inside scoring ability and rebounding, is setting in as Milwaukee has gone 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6...

But back to the "statement game" thing I mentioned...

The Bucks have beaten the Heat both times they have played them this season...And the last time was one of those wins the Bucks had without Bogut...

Do you really think the Heat want to lose to the Bucks 3 times in a row?...

You need to remember a few things about that last game at MILW without Bogut where the Bucks won 105-97...Miami led by 17 after the 1st quarter...And Brandon Jennings was 7-for-14 from 3-point range in that game for 31 points...Do you think Jennings is going to hit 7 more treys this time around?...Can you say "adjustments" Coach Spoelstra?...Can you say "motivational edge", LeBron, D-Wade and Mr. Bosh?...

Can YOU say, "Let's grab this overnight line at 6.5, a whisker below the only key number in the NBA (7) before it goes up before the tip to probably 7.5"?...

I am not worried about the Heat being 2-5 ATS in back-enders this season because that is cancelled out by MILW being 1-3 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not, and 2 of those Not Covers were against teams playing their 3rd game in 3 nights...Ok, the one Cover was against Miami, but again, irrelevant to me because I always look for the team with the motivational edge and I don't see Miami blowing another big lead this time around and believe me, they'll be up double-digits at some point in this one, maybe even the in the 1Q again...

I realize Miami plays at Indiana on Tuesday for their 3rd game in 3 nights, if they do get up big, they will rest their starters in the 4Q, but I am hoping the Heat will be up about 20+ like they were against Atlanta on Sunday...No big minutes played by Heat players on Sunday...

The Heat do have their unbeatable stretches at times and I am hoping they are in the midst of one now...

I like 2 other plays for Monday, but will wait on the lines...

GL...

Sunday, February 12, 2012

borderline play on Grizz, 2H...

I am going to pass as this doesn't quite qualify as a play for me with my 2H criteria, but it is really close simply on the value alone as all Memphis has to do is win this game and you will have a 2H cover...

Tempting, but I will just watch it after the HOU/GS game ends...

I will pick my spots here this month carefully as I am just 5-5 with a minuscule profit the first 12 days of FEB...Still got 17 days to go...Plenty of time...Just have to let the plays come to me and not force anything...

Saturday, February 11, 2012

New Jersey 2H...

Taking:

New Jersey Nets +1, 2H, laying $100 to win $104...

GL...

Taking CHAR 4Q...

Taking a shot at CHAR here (4Q)...

Charlotte Bobcats -1, 4Q, laying $105 to win $100...

GL...

Facebook and Twitter...

I'll have to get links up here or at TTS777 (sportsgambling.cc), but I posted my Timberwolves play on:

Twitter: brewers7

and

Facebook: Brewers Seven

Liking 3 games tonight...

But I am not sure if I am playing anything but Minnesota...

I like Indy here as they a low number to get over and I would love to fade Denver one more time as this Galanari injury is killing them...DEN is 5-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...But George Karl is a great coach and will figure out a way to turn this around... Indy 4-3 ATS in back-enders and have a surprisingly (to me) low number to get over tonight but I will pass on them...

I am going to pass on NJ, too, as they are just bad but this is a good spot for them as SA may have a bit of a let-down off that win in Philly and they have Ginobili back, which over-inflates the line despite the fact that his insertion into the line-up may hurt the Spurs' rhythm that they have devleoped, winning 7 straight now that the rotations will have to change...Will pass for now...

I am taking:

Minnesota Timberwolves -6.5, laying $108 to win $100 -- Knicks playing over their heads and although I hate to predict the exact game for them to cool off, well, hey, I am going to do it anyway as Jeremy Lin had 38 last night and has been out of this world, but this has to end some time and after a huge win over the Lake-Show last night, this is the perfect let-down spot for NY as they catch Minny in bounce-back mode with Kevin love returning to the line-up after his 2-game suspension...

GL...

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Portland and the Under, 2H...

Had 2 borderline plays that I passed on and of course they both won...

Have 2 plays here, the side is stronger and even though the Overs are finally coming in more regularly this season, I have to take the Under because the Pace dictates an Under, but both teams shot over 50% in the1H, with HOU shooting almost 60%...

Portland Trailblazers -8, 2H, laying $110 to win $100...

and

Houston/Portland Under 97.5, 2H, laying $105 to win $100...

GL...

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Milwaukee, 2H?...

I want to take them, but PHOE burned me last night and MILW is suffering from post-Bogut-injury syndrome, and that is, Bogut went down about a week or so ago and MILW rose up and won several games without him, but now, the effects of not having Bogut are setting in because a team can only rise up so long before feeling the pain of missing a quality shot-blocker and inside scorer like him...

MILW is a borderline play, but have significant value in the 2H...However, I will pass...

Monday, February 6, 2012

Atlanta 2H...

I have to pull back on taking as many bad teams on 2H plays as I have been as TOR is struggling tonight and New Jersey meets the criteria for a play and then some, but I will pass considering they are playing the Bulls, but NJ should cover this...

Atlanta Hawks -8, 2H, laying $100 to win $105...

GL...

Toronto 2H...

Toronto Raptors -2, 2H, laying $100 to win $104...

GL...

Sunday, February 5, 2012

Afternoon NBA games mean...

Unders...

General rule of thumb is to take NBA afternoon games Under, but I don't like these 2 games today...I do think Memphis and Boston will play a low-scoring game, but all the value is gone out of this total now as it has been coming down all morning...Pass...

And Miami can score 115 today easily, unless Toronto can keep the pace slow, but I am not sure they can therefore I am laying off this one, too...

Saturday, February 4, 2012

2H looks...

Going to pass on MILW even though they qualify as a 2H play...

And I am going to pass on OKC as they do not qualify as a play, not even close, but they are a "value" play because they can still lose this game by 8 (above the only NBA "key" number of 7) and cover the 2H spread...

If the Nets cover against the Knicks, I may grab PORT, or I may wait for a 2H line there, too...

Wizards 2H...

Washington Wizards -2, 2H, Laying $100 to win $105...

GL...

Still may play Atlanta, 2H, taking one more look at it...

Nah, gonna pass on ATL,s they have a ton of value and it is right on the cusp of a play, but I'll take the stronger play, IMO, despite Atlanta being a much more quality team compared to the Wiz...

Other tidbits...

Milwaukee just 1-6 ATS on back-enders this season...1-3 ATS at Home...

Dallas, despite their age, 6-2 ATS in back-enders...3-1 ATS on the Road...

Houston is 6-2 ATS in back-enders...5-0 ATS at Home...

I like Utah a bit, too, tonight as they are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games where they had rest and their opponent was on a back-ender, plus LAL has beaten Utah twice already this season (the last time was in OT at Utah)...But I especially like Utah coming off a blowout loss at GS and the Lakers off a tough win at DEN last night...BUT, Utah's injuries will probably keep me off this one...

Saturday first-blush thoughts...

Well, my gut was 2-0 yesterday...I guess that's what happens when you have 30 years of experience capping the NBA, although I have evolved as a handicapper over those years, fine-tuning and adapting to Vegas adapting to the ever-changing betting environment...

A good example is this Nets/Knicks game tonight...

I see NJ on the Road, playing their 4th game in 5 nights playing a Knicks team playing their 3rd game in 3 nights and 4th game in 5 nights...A couple of my favorite trends...If you simply look at the historical data (which I don't have in front of me and it may not be as super-strong as my head tells me it is) visiting teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights playing home teams on their 4th game in 5 nights has been money for the Visiting team ATS-wise over the years...And if you look at the 1998-99 strike-shortened year, the visiting team CLEANED UP ATS-wise in any game where one of the 2 teams (or both) was playing their 3rd game in 3 nights...

But whoa there Kemosabe...

Completely different story in 2011-12...

If I did my math correctly, we have a reversal in every category...

The games in which either team is playing a 3rd game in 3 nights: the Away team is just 4-11 ATS this year, basically it's almost a flip-flop from the 1998-99 numbers...Same with the 4-games-in-5-days trend...The super strong spot of the past where the Away teams cover a game where both teams are playing their 4th game in 5 days is just 5-6 ATS...The other 2 spots are you take an Away team playing their 4th game in 5 days against any rest for the Home team (not including the 4 of 5 spot) and that is just 11-16 ATS so far and the last spot is you fade the Home team playing their 4th game in 5 nights against a visitor on any rest (not including the 4 of 5 spot), and this spot is a brutal 9-19 ATS thus far this season...

So we have a total reversal this season to this point for trends that have been strong in the past, which is well, why I dig deeper than just 1 or 2 trends on any given game...

Now NJ has been holding true to those successful trends of the past as they are 3-0 this season in these spots and have one tonight vs. the Knicks...But the Knicks bucked their only spot with these trends, getting blown out at Houston last SAT...

But as I look at this game, trends aside, I see a Knicks team in dire need of a win (like they were when they hammered Detroit at home 4 days ago) coming off 2 tough losses against good teams...The 6.5 points just seem like too much, but it's under the only "key" number in the NBA, which is 7, and since the Home team is covering this 3 games in 3 days spot this season, I may have to take the Knicks tonight...We'll see...Have a little bit of time to decide...

And Denver is playing their 2nd 3-games-in-3-days spot and they covered at Home the first time they were in this spot, but this set of 3 games is tougher...

The first time, the Nuggets lost but covered at Staples vs. the Lakers, then went home and beat the Lakers in a revenge home-and-home spot and then barely covered in a win over a MILW team that struggled early in the season as this was the 9th day of the season when they beat MILW...

Now, they beat the Clippers at Staples 2 days ago, then lost a tough one to the Lakers last night, and tonight they go to PORT, who is 10-1 at Home...Again 6 points looks like too much...But, PORT is 3-0 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not, and one of those wins was a 9-point win over DEN on the 4th day of the season...PORT is also 9-2 ATS at Home, and were an eyelash away from 10-1, but the 76ers made an incredible 4Q comeback to barely sneak under the number in the final minute on opening night for those 2 teams...I think the Mozkov injury hurts tonight, too...Usually injuries are no big deal for one game in the NBA as players rise up, but just for this spot, with a 3rd game in 3 nights and one less regular out of George Karls's rotation against a tough home team, it could make a difference...

The Brewers7 of the past would NEVER give 6 or 6.5 points in these 2 spots, and in fact, I would be all over the points...But the evolving Brewers7 is thinking seriously about taking the home team FAV in both spots tonight...

We'll see...

Friday, February 3, 2012

I am cherry-picking for 2H plays tonight...

Only 2 games I looked at seriously were the Mia/Phi game and the LAL/Den game...I talked about the first one...My gut tells me the Lakers cover tonight as I think this may come down to the final possession...But Denver is so much deeper than the Lake-Show...DEN is also 4-1 on back-enders this season and the Lakers are 1-2 when they have rest and their opponent does not...

I will pass on this one, too...DEN 4-1 to the Over in back-enders this season, but 2 of those were OT-aided...

I will cherry-pick 2H lines tonight...

Miami/Philly...

I told a lot of people before the 2010-11 season and even more people before this season that the Sixers are going to have a good season...

Not because they are my favorite team...Heck, I rarely even watch their games any more since I have had the NBA package on DirecTv the past 6+ years...I watch Golden State games, Lakers games, Clippers games, Knicks games, Nets games and whatever other games I happen to be interested in...

But the reason I made those statements is because Doug Collins is an excellent coach...Much like Larry Brown got the most out of his teams (got the Clippers to the playoffs, Bobcats to the playoffs and Sixers and Pacers to the Finals, and Pistons a championship), Collins has gotten the most out of this Sixers' team...Can you name more than 3 players on this Sixers' squad?...

Philly has been the best cover team in the league since their 3-13 start last season...

But they have matchup issues with this Heat team...They have lost 8 of their last 9 games vs. the Heat since the start of last season...The Sixers only win came when they were down 3-0 in the first round of the playoffs last season...

As far as their earlier matchup this season (2 weeks ago), I did watch a lot of that game...And Philly played into Miami's hands...They played a fast, frenetic pace which the Heat thrive on...

Doug Collins certainly will make adjustments...Philly needs to slow it down and play a lot of zone defense...

Will that happen?...

We'll see, but Philly's speed and athleticism is neutralized by Miami's speed and athleticism...The Heat ran away and hid in that 113-92 win at Miami 2 weeks ago...So I would expect Coach Collins to slow this puppy down significantly and try and make this a half-court battle...

But I personally think the Sixers will get sucked in again to Miami's style and go down in flames...

I hope I am wrong...But I think the Heat cover this one...Although I will pass on this game for one reason and one reason only:

Doug Collins is a great coach...

Hard to bet against him in this revenge spot as I am sure he has a game-plan mapped out for this game...

Thursday, February 2, 2012

updated record...

27-17-1 Overall and 25-17-1 in the NBA on the year as I am tracked by this tracking site:

Tracking Site

Also, I occasionally post at the ThinkDog forum, with many spectacular handicappers at this link:

ThinkDog

I always look for 2H plays...

Denver...

Another short-revenge automatic play here as The Clips just beat the Nuggets at Denver 4 days ago now they meet again tonight at Staples...4th game in 5 nights for the Clips, who are 4-1 ATS in back-enders, but Denver is also 4-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponent is on a back-ender...I'll take the short-revenge spot here every time...

Denver Nuggets Pick, laying $100 to win $100...

GL...

I haven't played many totals, but Utah has played 6 straight Unders on back-enders and are 6-1 to the Under in this situation and GS is 9-3 to the Under at Home in regulation this season, so this would seem to be an Under, but I will pass...