Thursday, May 31, 2012
Friday play...
5-0-1 last 6 playoff plays...
I still may make a 2H play tonight, but for Friday, I already took:
Miami Heat, Pick, laying $100 to win $114 -- I am taking the moneyline...Reasons already stated in previous post...Having the public on Boston at 58% already makes me feel even better, but I don't put a ton of stock in those kind of "stats", I like who I like whether the public is on a team or not...
GL...
I still may make a 2H play tonight, but for Friday, I already took:
Miami Heat, Pick, laying $100 to win $114 -- I am taking the moneyline...Reasons already stated in previous post...Having the public on Boston at 58% already makes me feel even better, but I don't put a ton of stock in those kind of "stats", I like who I like whether the public is on a team or not...
GL...
Thur/Fri thoughts...
The line is creeping up on the SA/OKC game...
I will probably regret this, but I am going to pass on this game...I have fairly strong opinions on both Game 3's...
For me, it is take OKC or don't play the game...
This is their season...It's over if they lose tonight...SA has won 20 straight...This is the spot, tonight, where this streak should end...
I guess maybe the 4.5 scares me slightly, or just enough not to play this one...OKC could blow this team out, BUT, this SA team is tough to blow out...Their 2 biggest losses with the Big 3 playing (Parker, Ginobili & Duncan) was 14 and 20, and the 20-point loss was at Houston on a back-ender and the 14-point loss was the last game the Spurs have lost before winning 20 straight, a home loss to the Lake-Show...
I believe OKC will be up double-digits at some point, but the Spurs will make their runs...
I also believe that Friday's game only has one play...One way to go:
Miami Heat...
Take the Heat or don't play the game...I may even post this one shortly...
Game 2 was just too devastating a loss to bounce back from in my opinion...Don't get me wrong, if any team can bounce back from a loss like that, it is the Celtics, with those veterans, but with only one day's rest with heavy minutes for everyone, man, I just don't know...
Magic Johnson basically said that last night and he talked about it from a former NBA player's perspective...Then after he said it, he quickly said, "But, it's the Celtics, and anything can happen with the Celtics"...But his first-blush reaction, his instincts told him the series is over and Miami will essentially end the series in Game 3 for all intents and purposes...
It took the Heat 2 games to make the adjustment without Bosh, but boy, have they ever made the adjustment...
They erased a 15-point deficit in game 2 and led by 8 early in the 4Q before Boston reached down deep and came back to take the lead before losing in OT...
But Boston's valiant fight in the 4th quarter of Game 2 may have just about emptied their gas tank...
We'll see...
I will probably regret this, but I am going to pass on this game...I have fairly strong opinions on both Game 3's...
For me, it is take OKC or don't play the game...
This is their season...It's over if they lose tonight...SA has won 20 straight...This is the spot, tonight, where this streak should end...
I guess maybe the 4.5 scares me slightly, or just enough not to play this one...OKC could blow this team out, BUT, this SA team is tough to blow out...Their 2 biggest losses with the Big 3 playing (Parker, Ginobili & Duncan) was 14 and 20, and the 20-point loss was at Houston on a back-ender and the 14-point loss was the last game the Spurs have lost before winning 20 straight, a home loss to the Lake-Show...
I believe OKC will be up double-digits at some point, but the Spurs will make their runs...
I also believe that Friday's game only has one play...One way to go:
Miami Heat...
Take the Heat or don't play the game...I may even post this one shortly...
Game 2 was just too devastating a loss to bounce back from in my opinion...Don't get me wrong, if any team can bounce back from a loss like that, it is the Celtics, with those veterans, but with only one day's rest with heavy minutes for everyone, man, I just don't know...
Magic Johnson basically said that last night and he talked about it from a former NBA player's perspective...Then after he said it, he quickly said, "But, it's the Celtics, and anything can happen with the Celtics"...But his first-blush reaction, his instincts told him the series is over and Miami will essentially end the series in Game 3 for all intents and purposes...
It took the Heat 2 games to make the adjustment without Bosh, but boy, have they ever made the adjustment...
They erased a 15-point deficit in game 2 and led by 8 early in the 4Q before Boston reached down deep and came back to take the lead before losing in OT...
But Boston's valiant fight in the 4th quarter of Game 2 may have just about emptied their gas tank...
We'll see...
Wednesday, May 30, 2012
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Tue/Wed thoughts...
I don't have any strong opinions on this OKC/SA series yet...I figured Game 1 could go either way, and not only was that the case, the OKC cover, which seemed to be theirs the whole game, went away late before James Harden hit a trey at the buzzer for the backdoor cover for OKC...
I think Game 2 will be similar to Game 1...Lean to the Over as perhaps both teams found some rhythm with 66-point 4Q after the low-scoring first 3 quarters...Still stayed Under despite the big 4Q...
I kinda missed the boat not taking Miami in game 1 with BOS only having one day's rest after beating Philly in a tight game in Game 7...The Celtics looked tired...
But I look at it this way...
BOS was tired, they played terrible (shot less than 40% while MIA shot 50%), they had 5 technical fouls called against them, and they still were tied at the half and only lost the game by 14 points...They got next to nothing from Pierce and Allen...If these 2 can do anything in Game 2, the Celtics should cover...
I said Miami would win in 6 games, despite the Bosh injury, and they did...Miami should win this series in 5 games...I think they go up 3-0 here...But it seems like every time MIA gets up 3-0, they don't close it out in 4 (Philly last year and NY this year), so I am saying 5 games...
I think MIA wins Game 2 but BOS covers...I also think BOS will score more, so I like the Over, too...
Not sure if I'll play either just yet, but I will mull them over...
I think Game 2 will be similar to Game 1...Lean to the Over as perhaps both teams found some rhythm with 66-point 4Q after the low-scoring first 3 quarters...Still stayed Under despite the big 4Q...
I kinda missed the boat not taking Miami in game 1 with BOS only having one day's rest after beating Philly in a tight game in Game 7...The Celtics looked tired...
But I look at it this way...
BOS was tired, they played terrible (shot less than 40% while MIA shot 50%), they had 5 technical fouls called against them, and they still were tied at the half and only lost the game by 14 points...They got next to nothing from Pierce and Allen...If these 2 can do anything in Game 2, the Celtics should cover...
I said Miami would win in 6 games, despite the Bosh injury, and they did...Miami should win this series in 5 games...I think they go up 3-0 here...But it seems like every time MIA gets up 3-0, they don't close it out in 4 (Philly last year and NY this year), so I am saying 5 games...
I think MIA wins Game 2 but BOS covers...I also think BOS will score more, so I like the Over, too...
Not sure if I'll play either just yet, but I will mull them over...
Saturday, May 26, 2012
4-0-1 last 4 playoff plays...
I have been picky with my plays the last few weeks and it has paid off in a 4-0-1 run...
I'll stay picky the rest of the way...
I'll stay picky the rest of the way...
Thursday, May 24, 2012
THUR thoughts...
If Granger is healthy, I think Indy wins Game 6 and then Miami throttles them in Game 7...I just don't know how effective he can be when he was in a walking boot 2 nights ago after the game...
The Philly series just seems so ironic to me...
Everyone talks about Boston controlling the pace...If they slow it down, they win...Yet, in this series, the Celtics went Over in all 3 of their wins and the Sixers were Under in all 3 of their wins...
Game 7 just smells like a Boston double-digit win...The extra day's rest helps them immensely...Boston just didn't show up in Game 6 and they will in Game 7...
And it is hard for me to go against Miami right now as it appears that LeBron and Wade have figured it out without Bosh...But after that throttling and Larry Bird calling the Pacers out, for me, it is you take Indy or don't take the game...
The Philly series just seems so ironic to me...
Everyone talks about Boston controlling the pace...If they slow it down, they win...Yet, in this series, the Celtics went Over in all 3 of their wins and the Sixers were Under in all 3 of their wins...
Game 7 just smells like a Boston double-digit win...The extra day's rest helps them immensely...Boston just didn't show up in Game 6 and they will in Game 7...
And it is hard for me to go against Miami right now as it appears that LeBron and Wade have figured it out without Bosh...But after that throttling and Larry Bird calling the Pacers out, for me, it is you take Indy or don't take the game...
Saturday, May 19, 2012
Friday, May 18, 2012
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Thursday looks...
Ok, back to the ThinkDog way tonight, although, Miami isn't a Dog, but at -1.5, they may as well be a Dog as this team is almost always favored...
I am kinda looking at how Boston KILLED Philly in Game 3 after 2 close games at Home and seeing a similar situation with Miami...
Boston won a close Game 1, lost a close Game 2, then the response at Philly in Game 3...
Miami won a close Game 1 (that was a 1-point game deep into the 4Q), then lost a close Game 2, and I expect a response in Game 3 at Conseco...
Ok, no Bosh, but I still think that injury is being over-hyped by the ESPN talking heads...I still think Miami wins this series in 6, which is what I thought before the series started and Bosh was healthy...LeBron and Wade are going to impose their will on this series...And if they don't, that's fine with me because I can't stand Miami...
Clips played well in game 1, despite the 16-point loss...Credit Coach Vinny Del Negro as he made a ton of adjustments on the fly during the game, playing very small at time and Eric Bledsoe had a huge game and it would seem logical to see his minutes increase in this series...LAC did a great job minimizing Parker, but now they need to find a way to minimize Duncan and Ginobili...
Those 11 points look very, very tempting tonight and for me, that's the only way to go in this one -- take the points or stay away...
I am kinda looking at how Boston KILLED Philly in Game 3 after 2 close games at Home and seeing a similar situation with Miami...
Boston won a close Game 1, lost a close Game 2, then the response at Philly in Game 3...
Miami won a close Game 1 (that was a 1-point game deep into the 4Q), then lost a close Game 2, and I expect a response in Game 3 at Conseco...
Ok, no Bosh, but I still think that injury is being over-hyped by the ESPN talking heads...I still think Miami wins this series in 6, which is what I thought before the series started and Bosh was healthy...LeBron and Wade are going to impose their will on this series...And if they don't, that's fine with me because I can't stand Miami...
Clips played well in game 1, despite the 16-point loss...Credit Coach Vinny Del Negro as he made a ton of adjustments on the fly during the game, playing very small at time and Eric Bledsoe had a huge game and it would seem logical to see his minutes increase in this series...LAC did a great job minimizing Parker, but now they need to find a way to minimize Duncan and Ginobili...
Those 11 points look very, very tempting tonight and for me, that's the only way to go in this one -- take the points or stay away...
Wednesday, May 16, 2012
2-0 last 2 days...
I rolled with a situational spot that is now 77% over the last 30 NBA seasons...And it is now 88% if you throw out NBA Finals games...
This situational spot and these 2 plays were posted at our ThinkDog forum...
This situational spot and these 2 plays were posted at our ThinkDog forum...
Monday, May 14, 2012
Saturday, May 12, 2012
Wednesday, May 9, 2012
Lakers (2H) or stay away...
For me, this is a take the Lakers or don't play this one in the 2H at Staples...If the Lakers win the game, you have a 2H winna...
Sunday, May 6, 2012
Found some old posts regarding NBA and NHL playoff series situations...
I found 6 old posts I made back in 2007 regarding NBA & NHL series situations with 15 to 20 years worth of data to back up a few hypotheses...
Link: NBA Historical data
Link: NBA Historical data
Saturday, May 5, 2012
automatic plays...
Just got home...
This OKC/DAL game is about to go to the half...
I made a post on the original TTS777 forum (and at TheRx
forum, too, I believe) about 6 years ago with the results of all NBA series
that were 3-0 going back about 25 to 30 years...
The short story is that the automatic play goes to the team
up 3-0 in Game 4 to finish the job and cover...
So I may pass here on the 2H, we'll see, but OKC is the
automatic play and tomorrow, Miami is the automatic play...
Hard to think that both OKC and Miami won't cover...Odds are
better that they will both cover...
Friday, May 4, 2012
Thursday, May 3, 2012
thinking about a play on the late game...
I may have to play this OKC/Dal game...
At work and it's busy, but I may be back with a play...
At work and it's busy, but I may be back with a play...
Wednesday, May 2, 2012
2H play...
It qualifies, so I will take a shot...
Utah Jazz -1.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $104...
GL...
Utah Jazz -1.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $104...
GL...
stalking 2H lines...
Well, for as much as I had a feel for all 3 games yesterday, I have no feel for today's games...
Clips & Grizz the intriguing matchup, for sure...
I want to take the Grizzlies here, but I wonder about their confidence level after being outscored 28-3 to close out Game 1 in the series-opening loss, 99-98...Clips should be riding high...They are playing with house money and should be loose for this game, but you are still going to have play with a lot of effort to beat this MEMP team at MEMP...
I just can't lay the points here...Had the Clips won soundly, I'd be all over the Grizz, but the way MEMP lost Game 1 will keep me away from the game line...
Clips & Grizz the intriguing matchup, for sure...
I want to take the Grizzlies here, but I wonder about their confidence level after being outscored 28-3 to close out Game 1 in the series-opening loss, 99-98...Clips should be riding high...They are playing with house money and should be loose for this game, but you are still going to have play with a lot of effort to beat this MEMP team at MEMP...
I just can't lay the points here...Had the Clips won soundly, I'd be all over the Grizz, but the way MEMP lost Game 1 will keep me away from the game line...
Tuesday, May 1, 2012
Tuesday looks...
Been a super-busy stretch for me...I did mention on my blog that I wait for the upset in Game 1 and then take the team that got upset in Game 2...I didn't have time to post it, but Indiana was the automatic play yesterday...
For today, I hear Denver Coach George Karl saying they need to push the Pace...I hear Ty Lawson saying they need to push the Pace...I realize Den/LAL have had 7 straight Unders head-to-head, but the Pace in Game 1 was very fast...Problem was Denver shot 35%, mostly because Andrew Bynum tied a playoff record with 10 blocks...
You also have to remember that Metta World Peace is still a great defender and with him out, the Overs should come in this series...Is Bynum going to block 10 shots every game?...George Karl is a great coach and I have to believe there will be adjustments made here...
I like this Over and may take it...
I also like the BOS/Atl Under with Rondo out, but will wait for halftime...Philly may not be a bad play at all, but I worry about CHI rising up without Rose tonight before Philly makes a run at them the next few games...
For today, I hear Denver Coach George Karl saying they need to push the Pace...I hear Ty Lawson saying they need to push the Pace...I realize Den/LAL have had 7 straight Unders head-to-head, but the Pace in Game 1 was very fast...Problem was Denver shot 35%, mostly because Andrew Bynum tied a playoff record with 10 blocks...
You also have to remember that Metta World Peace is still a great defender and with him out, the Overs should come in this series...Is Bynum going to block 10 shots every game?...George Karl is a great coach and I have to believe there will be adjustments made here...
I like this Over and may take it...
I also like the BOS/Atl Under with Rondo out, but will wait for halftime...Philly may not be a bad play at all, but I worry about CHI rising up without Rose tonight before Philly makes a run at them the next few games...
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