I hate San Antonio, too, but now I wish they would have beat OKC because I think they could have beaten Miami with their depth...Problem is that Popovich went away from what got him to the Conference Finals as he started playing guys extended minutes and he shortened his bench once OKC got back in the series...I think he panicked and then the guys who started getting extended minutes for the first time all season got worn down by the younger OKC team...Pop even started Ginobili the last 2 playoff games after OKC tied the series as it just seemed that he panicked...He didn't stick with the road-map that got the Spurs to the Conference Finals...
Bonner played 50 seconds in game 5, Danny Green 3:47, Blair 6:48, Splitter 10:14, Neal 15:06, while Parker played almost 41 minutes and Ginobili played 38:26 in Game 5...Stephen Jackson even played 30:12 in that game...
But hey, LeBron is the best player in the league so it is about time he won one...
Friday, June 22, 2012
Thursday, June 21, 2012
2H lean...
OKC -3, +105, 2H, would be my play, but I am going to pass on it...One big run by Miami and OKC may just give up...I think OKC may have one last run in them...
Gonna pass though, as I may as well congratulate the Heat on their championship now...
Gonna pass though, as I may as well congratulate the Heat on their championship now...
Game 5 thoughts...
This series kind of reminds me of the 2004 Finals between the Lakers and the Pistons...
Now in that series, Detroit upset the Lake-Show at Staples in Game 1, and then the Lakers won Game 2 before going to Detroit for 3 games...The Lakers got spanked by 20 in Game 3 and everyone (including myself) felt, ok, perfect, here comes the Lakers in a nice bounce-back spot in Game 4...
Didn't happen...Pistons won by 8...And Detroit ended up putting away the Lakers by 13 in Game 5 to end the series...
Now I understand that OKC won Game 1 this year and that there haven't been any blowouts between OKC & Miami, BUT the similarity for me is the fact that the Game 4 line showed clearly that the public thought that OKC would win Game 4 and yet again, now, in Game 5, the line opened at 3 and is still only 3.5...People still think OKC is going to win a game in Miami...
I severely doubt it...
I said in this blog after the Game 3 loss that OKC was done and that this series was NOT going back to OKC...
I have missed the 1st half of 2 games in the Finals, but have seen every other quarter...
The refs are not giving Durant the same courtesy as Wade and LeBron and by that, I mean they are calling ticky-tack fouls on KD and calling fouls on him where Durant got all ball...Meanwhile, LeBron is allowed to grab Durant and foul him 3 times on the final shot of the game in Game 2 and after Durant misses (because he got fouled by LeBron), leBron then grabs Westbrook's arm as Westbrook is getting the rebound, so he lost the rebound and again, NO CALL on LeBron...
Not to mention all the non-calls against Wade & LeBron where they have basically raped and pillaged OKC players the entire series with virtually no whistles...
Now yes, I am rooting for OKC to win this series, but I have liked Miami the last 2 games with the low lines as I saw value there...Same with tonight...The Value is there with 3.5...
James Harden just has not played well, and that has killed OKC the last 2 games...Be a different series had he played well...OKC could be up 3-1 or at worst, tied 2-2...
OKC has to play a near perfect game to win as they are also playing against the refs in this series, so as I said before Game 4, I don't see this series going back to OKC...
Lean to Miami, but I am not betting it, so it's not an "official" play...
Now in that series, Detroit upset the Lake-Show at Staples in Game 1, and then the Lakers won Game 2 before going to Detroit for 3 games...The Lakers got spanked by 20 in Game 3 and everyone (including myself) felt, ok, perfect, here comes the Lakers in a nice bounce-back spot in Game 4...
Didn't happen...Pistons won by 8...And Detroit ended up putting away the Lakers by 13 in Game 5 to end the series...
Now I understand that OKC won Game 1 this year and that there haven't been any blowouts between OKC & Miami, BUT the similarity for me is the fact that the Game 4 line showed clearly that the public thought that OKC would win Game 4 and yet again, now, in Game 5, the line opened at 3 and is still only 3.5...People still think OKC is going to win a game in Miami...
I severely doubt it...
I said in this blog after the Game 3 loss that OKC was done and that this series was NOT going back to OKC...
I have missed the 1st half of 2 games in the Finals, but have seen every other quarter...
The refs are not giving Durant the same courtesy as Wade and LeBron and by that, I mean they are calling ticky-tack fouls on KD and calling fouls on him where Durant got all ball...Meanwhile, LeBron is allowed to grab Durant and foul him 3 times on the final shot of the game in Game 2 and after Durant misses (because he got fouled by LeBron), leBron then grabs Westbrook's arm as Westbrook is getting the rebound, so he lost the rebound and again, NO CALL on LeBron...
Not to mention all the non-calls against Wade & LeBron where they have basically raped and pillaged OKC players the entire series with virtually no whistles...
Now yes, I am rooting for OKC to win this series, but I have liked Miami the last 2 games with the low lines as I saw value there...Same with tonight...The Value is there with 3.5...
James Harden just has not played well, and that has killed OKC the last 2 games...Be a different series had he played well...OKC could be up 3-1 or at worst, tied 2-2...
OKC has to play a near perfect game to win as they are also playing against the refs in this series, so as I said before Game 4, I don't see this series going back to OKC...
Lean to Miami, but I am not betting it, so it's not an "official" play...
Tuesday, June 19, 2012
4Q officiating starting out horrible...
Officiating NO BETTER to start the 4Q...
Miami clobbering OKC players all over the court and no
fouls and it has cost them at least 5 points already...
Sickening to watch really...These refs ought to be
ashamed of themselves...The league should ban these 3 guys from ever doing
another Finals game again...
Atrocious 3Q officiating...
This is easily the WORST officiating I have ever seen for an entire quarter...Big-time Homer refs tonight in the 3Q...
I missed the 1H as I was at a baseball game, but I have seen the entire 3Q and I am appalled by how one-sided the officiating has been for the entire 3Q...Horrible...Multiple calls where nobody from OKC even came within a foot of touching a Miami player and these phantom calls are being made, yet on the other end, OKC players are being pushed, shoved and hammered and there is no whistle...
It started 30 seconds into the 3Q where they initially called a foul on Durant when Wade drove in for a layup and Durant got all ball and blocked the shot without touching Wade's body at all...CLEAN block...Then they changed the foul to Westbrook, who was a foot away from Wade and never touched him...Did not come within a foot of touching Wade, yet the phantom foul...And it just kept happening the entire 3Q...OKC got hosed the entire quarter...
OKC has no chance whatsoever of winning another game in this series if this awful and blatant homer officiating continues in this series...
I missed the 1H as I was at a baseball game, but I have seen the entire 3Q and I am appalled by how one-sided the officiating has been for the entire 3Q...Horrible...Multiple calls where nobody from OKC even came within a foot of touching a Miami player and these phantom calls are being made, yet on the other end, OKC players are being pushed, shoved and hammered and there is no whistle...
It started 30 seconds into the 3Q where they initially called a foul on Durant when Wade drove in for a layup and Durant got all ball and blocked the shot without touching Wade's body at all...CLEAN block...Then they changed the foul to Westbrook, who was a foot away from Wade and never touched him...Did not come within a foot of touching Wade, yet the phantom foul...And it just kept happening the entire 3Q...OKC got hosed the entire quarter...
OKC has no chance whatsoever of winning another game in this series if this awful and blatant homer officiating continues in this series...
Game 4 thoughts (and Game 3 criticisms)...
Played 4 baseball games again this past weekend and was
wiped out by the time I got home Sunday night around 7:45 p.m. EST, just in
time to get lines for my database and not much else...
I think Scott Brooks did kind of blow that game taking
Durant out when he did with 4 fouls in the 3Q...He let that 10-point lead just
evaporate in just a few minutes and Miami then had the momentum for the 4Q...
Durant needs to be smarter, too, picking up some overly
aggressive fouls on the offensive boards, etc...But what was Brooks doing the
last 6 minutes of the 3Q??...Actually brought in Daequan Cook for a brief spell
late in the 3Q and I love him as a 3-point shooter, but what was he doing in
the game at that juncture??...Why was Westbrook out as long as he was??...What,
because he had one stupid charge on a 1 on 4 situation there?...And you yank
him out with Durant already out while Westbrook only had 2
fouls???...Why??...Because he had one bad possession and you want to prove a
point??...Why??...
Game 3 was there for the taking and OKC blew it...
I think the series is over now after that loss...
And now Ibaka opening his mouth today saying that LeBron
is not a good defender...
I think Miami can win this in 5 now...I don't think it
goes back to OKC and even if it does, if OKC isn't up 3-2, they will lose the
series...No way OKC will win Game 6 AND Game 7 against this Miami team...You
aren't winning 2 pressure-cooker elimination games against this Miami squad...
I like Miami tonight, but I will pass and look at a 2H
line...
And believe me, I am rooting for OKC in the worst way,
but I don't bet with my heart, I bet with my head...So a lean to Miami tonight
but no official play...
Thursday, June 14, 2012
Finals, Game 2...
Kind of torn here...
I expect Bosh to be in the starting lineup and I expect Miami to come out the same way as they did in Game 1 -- solid in the 1st quarter and 1st half...
Have to give OKC a ton of credit for ratcheting up the effort defensively in the 2H of Game 1...The Thunder really came out determined right out of the gate after halftime...
And therein lies my dilemma...
Has OKC figured it out?...
Will they start Game 2 the same way they started the 2H of Game 1?...
That is the ONLY thought holding me back from a 1H play tonight as I told a few people after watching Game 1 that I would be thinking seriously about taking the Heat in the 1H of Game 2...
The Heat are +3 for the 1H and the moneyline is even more enticing at +165...
But I am going to pass...
I will stalk for a 2H play and see what happens...
Tuesday, June 12, 2012
2H lean...
I am not playing this as I am taking it easy here in Game 1, but the Pace of the game doesn't justify the Over...Both teams shooting over 50% in the 1st half...
So again, it's either you take the Under in the 2H or stay away...
So again, it's either you take the Under in the 2H or stay away...
NBA Finals...
Been super-busy and not posting the last week or so, which is too bad because I was fairly spot-on with the Conference Finals for the most part...
Now to The Finals...
Historically, I haven't done well in the Finals, but historically, I have all but packed up the season betting-wise because the money is made during the regular season and early rounds of the playoffs...
The Finals can be a crap-shoot at times...
No way I am playing Game 1, but I will watch and see if there is a blowout one way or the other and then go the other way in Game 2, potentially...
I will or may have 2nd half plays, depending on whether halftime scores and stats warrant...I cannot guarantee I will have a game play the entire series...
For me, there is a LOT of value taking the Heat at +205 in Game 1 on the moneyline...At Pinny, the Heat are +5 and +100 and there is a LOT of value there for me, too...
It is either take MIA or stay away in Game 1...
And the people who have followed me for many years are probably asking, "But wait Brewers7, you aren't fading the team off a Game 7 win in a tough series?"...
Normally I would, but in the Finals, Game 7 winners have 2 days rest compared to 1 days rest in any other round...BIG difference, that extra day's rest...Cancels out a lot of things...
So rare to see the Heat this big a dog against anyone and then to see 63% of John Q Public all over OKC really has me shaking my head as we perhaps have a new public darling here...I guess all these folks are looking at OKC being 8-0 at Home in the postseason and their short-term memories see OKC winning 4 in a row vs. the indestructible San Antonio Spurs, who had won 20 straight before that 4-game losing streak to end the season...
Talk about a chart-play there...I mean, some easy pickings taking OKC after that Spurs' 20-game winning streak was snapped...
Anyway, I will stalk for a 2H play in Game 1 and then we'll see about Game 2...
Now to The Finals...
Historically, I haven't done well in the Finals, but historically, I have all but packed up the season betting-wise because the money is made during the regular season and early rounds of the playoffs...
The Finals can be a crap-shoot at times...
No way I am playing Game 1, but I will watch and see if there is a blowout one way or the other and then go the other way in Game 2, potentially...
I will or may have 2nd half plays, depending on whether halftime scores and stats warrant...I cannot guarantee I will have a game play the entire series...
For me, there is a LOT of value taking the Heat at +205 in Game 1 on the moneyline...At Pinny, the Heat are +5 and +100 and there is a LOT of value there for me, too...
It is either take MIA or stay away in Game 1...
And the people who have followed me for many years are probably asking, "But wait Brewers7, you aren't fading the team off a Game 7 win in a tough series?"...
Normally I would, but in the Finals, Game 7 winners have 2 days rest compared to 1 days rest in any other round...BIG difference, that extra day's rest...Cancels out a lot of things...
So rare to see the Heat this big a dog against anyone and then to see 63% of John Q Public all over OKC really has me shaking my head as we perhaps have a new public darling here...I guess all these folks are looking at OKC being 8-0 at Home in the postseason and their short-term memories see OKC winning 4 in a row vs. the indestructible San Antonio Spurs, who had won 20 straight before that 4-game losing streak to end the season...
Talk about a chart-play there...I mean, some easy pickings taking OKC after that Spurs' 20-game winning streak was snapped...
Anyway, I will stalk for a 2H play in Game 1 and then we'll see about Game 2...
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