Got this in under the wire...

Sorry for lateness as I debated and debated and took

New Orleans Hornets +7, laying $103 to win $100...

Picks by rankings...

I am doing this again this season -- ranking my sides and totals from strongest to weakest:

Sides:

1) Utah, 2) NO, 3) Det, 4) Port, 5) GS, 6) Sac, 7) Tor, 8) Phi, 9) Memp

Totals:

1) Phi ov, 2) NO ov, 3) Port un, 4) GS ov, 5) Utah un, 6) Det un, 7) Sac un, 8) Memp un, 9) Tor ov

Wednesday looks...

Not a lot of time here and I am debating what to do, but will decide between 7:45 and 8:00 EST...

Games I am leaning to are NO, Utah and PORT...I may not play any of them...NO is tempting as SA doesn't have Ginobili and PORT ML is also tempting as LAL is in a huge funk right now...I want to play Utah in the worst way, but I don't think I have ever laid 8.5 or 9 on the 2nd day (or 1st week, even) in my 30+ years of capping the NBA...

Lean to DET, too, because how in sync can HOU really be with a post Preseason schedule trade??...

I am not really seriously considering totals this early in the season...Although I wonder about Miami Overs for the next couple of games...

I will be a vulture looking for 2H plays all night...

hedging thoughts...

With a 6.5 2H line (LAL favored), it is tempting to "hedge" my game bet and "protect" that initial bet with a hedge bet on LAL 2H...After all, I could win both plays if LAL wins by 5, 6 or 7 and I can push the initial bet if LAL wins by 8 and win the hedge bet...Pretty nice middle there...

Always a tough call to hedge...Lakers shot great in the 1H, yet are still down somehow...The halftime stats tell me LAL is NOT a play, despite the value we have here, which includes the hedge-value...

I'll pass and see if the the original bet can somehow hold up...The Lakers will have at least one big run that Dallas will have to answer in the 2H...

Another 2H thought...

The PACE was insane for the Bos/Mia 1H, so even though I want to play this 2H Under due to the extreme value this play suddenly has, even though I KNOW the 2H Pace will slow, will it slow enough??...116 in the 1H and now we are asked to believe 94 will be a problem to get Over?...I like the Under for the Value, but don't like it looking at the Pace of the 1H, which will slow down, but I am not totally convinced it will down enough to get Under 94...

2H thought...

The Wiz are a borderline 2H play here, but since this is Opening night, I am not going to play too many (if any) borderline plays the first week, but I wanted to have a record of these so if I am hot out of the gate on borderline plays, then I may play more of them...

NBA Opening Day play...

Dallas Mavericks +8, laying $100 to win $112 -- The line is 9, but I sold a point to get the plus-juice, well, because that is what I do...When all the bally-hoo surrounding the Heat and LeBron's and Bosh's debut with Wade in 2010, they lost to the Celtics opening night by 8 at Boston...The Lakers have the advantage of being home at Staples for their bally-hooed opener with Nash and Howard and they have an advantage with the Mavs missing Dirk Nowitzki...But the Lakers are still lacking cohesion...Their 0-8 Preseason record proves that...Not to mention Howard only played 2 games...Kobe is already a little banged up, but hey, he is a warrior as he played almost the entire 2011-12 season with a torn wrist ligament, in his shooting wrist no less...He'll play and he should be fine despite his bruised right foot...Nash didn't look comfortable yet with this offense in the preseason...Jordan Hill is back surprisingly quick, which will help their bench...This team should be outstanding (if they stay healthy) in early to mid-December...But my opinion is that they will need 15 to 20 games to get rolling...Remember, the Heat started 9-8 SU (5-12 ATS) two seasons ago before winning 12 straight AFTER playing those 17 games...Dallas has a good enough team with plenty of veterans to come into Staples and give the Lakers all they can handle...I think the line may come down slightly from 9 (despite LAL being public darlings), so I am grabbing at 8 with nice plus-juice now...

I am also looking at Boston as they have the revenge angle I have talked about for many years (playing the team that eliminated them from the playoffs the previous season for the first time this season)...

GL...

NFL Sunday...

NFL 5-3, +$218

4-team, 13-point teaser

TENN +9.5
GB -1.5
PHI +10
DET +12

Laying $140 to win $100...

Also taking:

Philadelphia Eagles -3, laying $100 to win $105 -- Eagles 13-0 off a bye week under Andy Reid and after a 2-game losing streak coming into the bye week, they are chomping at the bit for this game...

Detroit Lions -2.5, laying $113 to win $100 -- Seattle 1-3 on the Road and the Lions hung tough with a tough Bears' team at CHI last week...Detroit's season is on the line this week at 2-4 and I believe they are under-rated and this line to me represents value...

GL...

THUR looks...

I was going to take SAC-Town on the ML at +152, but man, I get off the phone and see it fell to +130, which confirmed my thoughts that Dwight Howard is NOT playing as I knew Kobe was OUT for this one already...I just have a nagging feeling that the Lakers do not want to go 0-8 in the Preseason and will try and win this one...SAC has already beaten LAL twice this preseason so where is the real motivation to beat them a 3rd time??...Doesn't mean they don't want to...They are rested and LAL is not...But the ONLY motivational angle (yes, I know it is preseason) is that the Lakers want to avoid the 0-for...

So I will pass on this one...

I kind of like Denver, so I am going to look at this one as the Clips are on a back-ender and Eric Bledsoe played over 43 minutes last night for the Clips, missing a triple-double by one steal...So I cannot imagine he'll play tonight or if he does, it will be reduced minutes...But if Chris Paul plays, I may stay away here...DEN on the front-end of a back-to-back, so I need to look at who may be sitting tonight before making any decision here...

3 days left...

I was thinking about the Lakers until I saw that Howard and Kobe are out...

I kind of want to fade OKC and MIA because they both played last night, but I will stay away...

I will be looking at the Clippers' and Lakers' games on THUR as they both have back-enders tomorrow...

Cannot wait for the regular season to start...

4 days left in NBA preseason...

I am going to be super-careful playing anything the final week of the Preseason...Nothing yesterday, nothing tonight...I will wait for a spot I like or for some information I like or I will not play anything until the regular season begins next Tuesday...

NFL teaser for SUN...

I don't like much at all in the NFL this week...This could be the week of the Favorites, and well, since I have always been a DOG player across all sports, I am not going to make any straight plays or moneyline plays, but I think the best ML Dog who can win straight up is the Lions on Monday night...Only play is here:

4-team, 13-point teaser (3-0 on teasers this year, Overall record is 4-3, +$118 in the NFL):

Indy +12
GB +8
Dal +12
NO +12

Laying $140 to win $100...

GL...

last NBA play today...

New York/Boston under 189.5, laying $100 to win $101 -- Knicks have 4 starters out and the Celtics have KG and Pierce out, so hopefully points will be tough to come by here...

GL...

Saturday play...

San Antonio Spurs Pick, laying $100 to win $126 -- No LeBron for Miami and according to the Pregame talk by the Miami announcers, the Heat are going to be "evaluating talent" as they try and sure up the last 2 spots on the roster, so I am hoping the bottom 4 guys battling for those 2 spots will get a lot of playing time...We'll see...At +126, it's worth a shot on the ML...

GL...

Friday play...

Philadelphia 76ers Pick, laying $100 to win $146 -- I am taking the Sixers despite the fact that Evan Turner won't play, which is why the line jumped up to 4.5 and the moneyline did hit +159, which I should have grabbed, as the line may hit 4 now, maybe...4th game in 5 nights for Brooklyn and I am hoping that Nets Coach Avery Johnson sits a few starters again on the back-ender, and since Joe Johnson & Deron Williams both played 30+ minutes last night, I am hoping those 2 sit, at minimum...I love Doug Collins as a coach and am hoping the Sixers can eke out a win here...

I really wonder how the Lakers can be favored by 6 with how horrible they have been this Preseason...I'll look at that game and glance at a few others...

GL...

THUR look...

The only play I am considering is Brooklyn in the NBA, but I will probably end up passing on it as I don't like the spot for the Nets here as it is a quick-revenge spot for the Celtics...Sure, I know it is the Preseason and the game is meaningless, but BOS is just too flaky for me...I saw that Avery Johnson said he is going to use a regular season-like rotation tonight, so I am just itching to pull the trigger on this one (and probably should) as Doc Rivers really doesn't seem to give a hoot at all about playing to win at the end of preseason games...I did read where Rivers is debating whether to play his starters extended minutes or not, but unless I see for sure that he is NOT, I can't pull the trigger on this one...And actually, what I read on a Celtics blog was that Rivers may play his starters extended minutes tonight (TNT game, after all) and rest them SAT...

passing on WED...

Not liking too much in the NBA tonight as I have a slight lean to the Clips catching the Jazz on a back-ender after they shot very well against the Lake-Show last night, but I more or less abhor giving 6 or more points in the Preseason...

Tuesday NBA looks & a MLB play...

Detroit Tigers -0.5 (5 innings), laying $123 to win $100 -- Not crazy about the juice, as I was going to take the +123 on the Run-Line for the game with Detroit -1.5, but I figured if Detroit isn't covering 1/2 a run after 5 innings, they aren't going to cover 1.5 runs in 9 innings...Yankees offense obviously struggling mightily and Verlander would seem to be the wrong pitcher to break out against...Phil Hughes is hit or miss, and as EJ at the ThinkDog forum pointed out to me today, Hughes has allowed a HR in every game he has started this season (except for one)...

GL...

NBA Looks...

First, I broke one of my old rules last night, which backfired, and that is, that I should never bet a game where I liked one side and then later changed my mind to the other side...Although I did cap the game correctly (in my eyes) as every player I thought would play for HOU and I was right about Lin not playing...I also had a hunch Nowitzki wouldn't play as he is nursing a minor knee injury that forced him to sit out the previous preseason game and sure enough, Nowitzki didn't play, but Dallas still caught fire in the 2H and shot 51.6% from the floor for the game, which is very high for a preseason game...

And of course, Philly kills Boston, but I let the 2.5 point line movement take me off the game because I "lost value"...I didn't want to bet it at 4 after it sat at 1.5 all day...I need to get out of that mode because most of the time, 2.5 points, whether it's a Book adjustment or it's steam, does NOT matter...

On to tonight...

The Nets/Celtics look like Trap-City to me...

I like the Celtics here as Garnett is playing tonight for Boston...

I cannot find anywhere online whether Joe Johnson (37+ minutes last night) and Deron Williams (31+ minutes last night) are going to play or not...

Coach Avery Johnson played them both extra minutes because he wanted the Nets to win their first-ever game in Brooklyn at the new arena...Joe Johnson even admitted after the game that he was surprised to be going back in to the game with just over 3 minutes left...And Johnson admitted he wanted the win to give the fans "a good feeling" leaving the arena in the first Nets' game to be played in Brooklyn...

I am at work and don't get the NBA channel at work, but if anyone looking at my blog sees on NBA TV that Johnson and/or Williams is NOT playing for Brooklyn tonight, post a comment on my blog because I'll probably bet it at that point...I WANT to bet it now, but don't want to if those 2 play, even though I KNOW they will play reduced minutes tonight, if they play at all because the Nets have 4 games in 5 nights and this is game #2 during this stretch...

I lean to Utah, too, but really haven't looked at it yet...

Monday play...

Houston Rockets +5, laying $100 to win $103 -- Sold half a point here...I don't have the time to type out how I broke down Houston's last 2 preseason-game boxscores, but if you look at who played in the Rockets' 20-point win over previously unbeaten New Orleans last Friday and then who played for Houston in their loss to San Antonio last night, you'll see that many players who played vs. NO did NOT play last night and I expect them to play tonight...Dallas may be rusty after not playing for 5 days and this is their first game vs. a NBA team after they split 2 games overseas...And if Jeremy Lin doesn't play tonight, I am not worried a bit, especially after his 1-for-10 with 1 assist performance last night...

GL...

Monday glance...

I liked Dallas a little at -3.5 and then I look 10 minutes later and see the line jumped to -5.5...Then I look at the Rockets boxscore last night and see that several Rocket's players sat out last night vs. SA (including K'Mart) so I expect them all to play tonight...So with that in mind, I suddenly like the Rockets +5.5 a little...

The 76ers is line is flying upward as I type...I was going to say I like them a tad at -1.5 and now it's at -2.5 -120...Sixers were 2-0 in the shortened preseason of 2011 and 1-1 this year and with the line suddenly moving up, I am sure Garnett and/or a few other Celtics may not be playing tonight as this is the front-end of a back-to-back with a TV game tomorrow for Boston...In fact, I just checked and Garnett is OUT tonight...

Maybe I'll have a play, maybe I won't....

2 NFL plays...

2-3, -$107 on season in the NFL...3rd teaser of the season (2-0 so far):

NYJ +9.5
Dal +16
NE +9.5
GB +16.5

Laying $140 to win $100...

Also...

Buffalo Bills +3, laying $100 to win $125 -- I sold a point here, taking it down from +4 to +3 as I think the Bills win this outright, and yes, I should take the +176 on the moneyline, but just in case Arizona wins, I hope it is by a FG and I'll push the game...I still have good value at +125 getting 3 points, so I will run with it...Bills off a humiliating slaughter at SF after a horrendous 2nd half at Home the game before vs. NE...About as bad as you can play for 6 consecutive quarters...Arizona does have extra rest off their first loss, but I don't care as this team is very fortunate to be 4-1 and has their defense to thank for that...Angle for me remains the double bounce-back spot for Buffalo, against a Cards team that I think is about to go the other way after a 4-0 start...

I am very tempted to take KC and GB on the moneylines, but I will pass...

If I am home, I will look at potential 2H plays...

GL...

Saturday play...

LA Clippers/Miami under 192, laying $102 to win $100 -- Sold 1/2 a point here and maybe should have sold another point, but I settled on the 192, which is fine considering I was going to take it under 189.5...This opened at 189 and I am not sure why the total jumped 3.5 points...Again, I will take the neutral floor overseas, playing at a time that is 12:30 a.m. EST...

Only other game I am looking at is Utah, but I want to see if Kobe is playing or not...

GL...

Friday looks...

I passed on THUR, although I forgot that the Heat were playing the Clips overseas early Thursday (4:30 a.m.)...

Which brings me to another Preseason tidbit I forgot:

Two NBA teams playing overseas usually equals an Under...Teams on a neutral and unfamiliar floor and playing in a time zone at a time where they are usually snoozing in bed...

I am not betting anything Friday, but lean towards Houston as they are catching New Orleans on a back-end of a back-to-back and besides, how many times can the Hornets erase double-digit deficits and come back to win in this Preseason?...3-0 with 3 nice comebacks...

I also lean to the Cavs getting 7.5 or 8...

No plays, though...

Taking the Blazers...

Portland TrailBlazers +5, laying $100 to win $106 -- No "Superman" yet for the Lake-Show and this game is at a neutral site, to boot, so sure, I fully expect the Lakers to be winning at the half like they were in their opener, but I am also hoping their starters get pulled again in the 2H and the Blazers cover...

GL...

More tidbits to look for while capping the NBA Preseason...

Check the venue for every game...

There are a LOT of neutral site games in the Preseason...

And also check to see if a team has played a non-NBA team recently...There are usually no lines posted for these games and unless you go to nba.com, you won't even know these games happened...

One reason I did NOT take CLE at home getting 4 points last night was because they were on a back-ender   after playing an Italian team the night before...

Kind of like Portland tonight getting points at a neutral site against the Lake-Show...

If I have a play, that will be it since there are no totals listed online anywhere (other than the Hilton) and gee, I wonder why?...Could it be we have had 8 straight Unders in the Preseason now after the first game went over on Saturday?...Totals are 8-1 to the Under to start the season which is no surprise to me...I should have bet every one of them...

Ok, taking Bobcats...

Hope I don't regret these plays today after the 3 winners I passed on the last 2 days...

Charlotte Bobcats +5, laying $106 to win $100 --  Not a lot to say here other than I am taking the default play (the DOG)...The Hornets had a nice come-from-behind win vs. Orlando in Mexico City in their opener, outscoring the Magic by 17 in the 4Q to pull out that win, while the Bobcats won on their opener against the Wizards by a dozen...I like some of the Hornets' pick-ups for 2013, but in the Preseason, I'll take the inferior team and the points every damn time...Kinda like the Over here, too, but I'll stay away from the total...

Tuesday looks...

2 games I like a bit:

Milwaukee/Cleveland Under 196, laying $105 to win $100 -- Despite MILW being a fast-paced team with Jennings and Ellis at the Guard positions, they will only play so many minutes and 196 is a fairly high total for a preseason game this soon out of the gate...

I haven't decided on the Bobcats +5 yet as a bet, but I like them...

GL...

one last default preseason play...

I forgot to mention the default Preseason play for totals, which is Under...

If you have no idea which way to go, you just take the damn game Under...

Under already 5-1 so far this season...

The totals will drop and there will be some Overs as the offenses start to gel a bit, and then you'll see Unders again the final few days of the Preseason...

NBA Preseason 2012...

My basic guidelines (or "default" plays) for the NBA preseason are:

1) take any Dog getting 4 or more points

2) fade any team playing the back-end of a back-to-back unless they rest their starters the first game

3) fade the elite teams as they will be over-valued and their starters generally play reduced minutes if they play at all

This does not work every preseason but it works more often than it doesn't...

One key to the preseason is Googling previews for every game (going to the cities' local papers online) and finding out who is playing and who isn't...Look for coaches' quotes on who is playing extended minutes and who is playing reduced minutes and/or being rested...

Bottom line is to stick with these guidelines and pick your spots...

2 plays that I wasn't really around to make on Sunday were the Atlanta Hawks and Golden State Warriors and BOTH were cakewalk winners...

The Lakers didn't even play their starters in the 2H vs. GS and look at the momentous swing after halftime in that game...The Lakers played 19 players in that game...

Tonight, we have GS on a back-ender, but Stephen Curry, who didn't play in the opener, will be playing tonight for GS...Bogut will be out again...

My standard practice is to fade the team on the back-ender (GS) tonight...

I am not sure if I will bet Utah or not but it's either take them or stay away...

I did read in an article in the Deseret News (Salt Lake City) where the players feel that they will be playing a more open style of basketball this season with their additions during the offseason...I'll believe it when I see it...

NBA Preseason...

No lines out yet for SUN and I may not be around for the early games (as our baseball team made the Semis in a tourney in Philly), but I like ATL as Wade and LeBron will not play this opener for the Heat...

Week 5...

I don't like the match-ups at all this week (not even super-crazy about this teaser as I could only get over a key number 1 out of these 4 picks), but I will take another 4-team, 13-point teaser this week and post it here in case people don't want to go to TipsterPicks to track down the pick:

1-3, -$207 on NFL season

WASH +16
MIA +16
CHI +7.5
NO +9.5

Laying $140 to win $100...

GL...