Thursday, December 19, 2013

No Ginobili or Duncan tonight, too...

Just a FYI as I thought Popovich might sit one of them (or maybe both), but he did me one better and is sitting both...Popovich loves doing this after a stretch of games like this (7 games in 10 days) and I think he relishes the attention he gets for doing this on the night of a TNT game where, Ernie, Kenny, Shaq and Chuck will be talking about this all night...

Also, I did place an additional bet on GS -6.5 points, taking GS with these 2 SA players and Parker out, on top of my GS -3 bet, but I didn't bet a full unit so I won't count it on my record at the end of the night...

Thursday...

3-1, +$190

Golden State Warriors -3, laying $110 to win $100 -- Ok, somehow I just lost half my write-up when I hit submit so I have to type this over again...But, here we go again, maybe a shorter version this time:

Two words: Andre Iguodala...A very under-rated player in this league...Look at how bad, how quickly, my 76ers went from a medicore team barely making the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference to just flat-out terrible in just the 1 1/4 seasons ago since AI went to Denver last season and now to GS this season...Iguodala returned from injury last time out for GS and voila, the Warriors absolutely blew out the Pelicans...Sure, the final score shows an 11-point win, but GS was up at least 24 in the 4th quarter when I had the game on (NBA Package, DirecTv, a must for any NBA fan) and it was garbage time that entire quarter...Now if you think I am partial towards former 76ers' players or the 76ers in general, you are badly mistaken as I bet or pick against Philly quite regularly and have done so for decades whenever they stink...But you may have heard the phrase "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure"...Well, I don't buy into every damn number or newfangled stat that is out there these days, but I do like this stat: "The Warriors are plus 15.6 points per 100 possessions with Iguodala on the court, No. 1 among players who average at least 30 minutes per game."....And you may look at the boxscore for the Pelicans game and say, "Well, he only had 2 points in 17+ minutes", but I will point out to you that you missed a very important number on Iggy's line and that is the plus/minus number and he was a +20, second best in the game behind only Stephen Curry...I am also kind of hoping that Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich maybe sits Ginobili or Duncan tonight, but that would be a bonus for me and I don't really expect that with Parker out...But, the Spurs are coming off a hard-fought win vs. the Suns last night at PHOE where they got a big 4Q from Ginobili to earn that win and this is a back-end of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 10 days...Speaking of games at Phoenix, Warrior's coach Mark Jackson called his team out after a loss at PHOE 2 games ago as he challenged their focus and effort for 48 minutes and they responded with a resounding win vs. the Pelicans last time out...I expect GS to go on a little bit of a run now with Iggy back, which allows Harrison Barnes to come off the bench again (as he took Iggy's starting spot while he was hurt) and GS needs all the bench help they can get as I believe they are ranked 28th in the league in bench scoring...And lastly, I have a mini chart-play on GS to boot...Oh, and I forgot to mention that GS has a small revenge spot here as the Spurs did beat them at Oracle on 11/8 this season and GS has had some success at Oracle vs. SA dating back to last season...

GL...

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

update to rankings...

LeBron is playing so Miami is my #2 Side now, not Indiana...

Wednesday play...

2-1, +$90

Minnesota Timberwolves -2, laying $110 to win $100 -- I HATE to be fading the best and hottest team in the league right now and I generally don't fade teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights while on the Road that 4th game, but PORT has had 2 very, very difficult games in the the last 3 days as they erased a double-digit 4Q deficit at Detroit and beat them in OT with a Lillard buzzer-beater and then Lillard did it again last night at CLE as the Blazers won at the buzzer in a hard-fought back-and-forth game against the Cavaliers...And now they face the T'Wolves...Minny has been a good 1st-half-of-the-season team (the past few years when Kevin Love is healthy) and even though I think they are under-achieving slightly this season, tonight is a good spot for them to step up and beat the best team in the league (right now) on their home floor...

GL...

Also, if Lebron doesn't play, I like Indy and the Under, if LeBron does play, I like Miami and I will still pick the Under...I like my top 4 totals a lot and if Lebron doesn't play, I like my top 5 totals...Knicks under a solid play because Tyson Chandler returns tonight while OJ Mayo is out for MILW...Sac/Atl under good play because SAC is having issues with the offense getting Ruday Gay involved...Port/Min over, well, PORT is playing, need I say more?...NO/LAC over as there is a strong chart-play to the Over for the Clips as they have kicked their offense in gear big-time the last 2 games...

Sides:

1) Min, 2) Ind, 3) Was, 4) Char, 5) Det, 6) Atl, 7) Chi, 8) NY, 9) Dal, 10) SA, 11) Utah, 12) NO

Totals:

1) Atl un, 2) Min ov, 3) NY un, 4) NO ov, 5) Ind un, 6) Dal un, Char un, 8) Chi un, 9) Det un, 10) Was ov, 11) Utah un, 12) SA un

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Tuesday...

I actually like a lot of plays tonight, so we'll see how well I am (or am not) seeing it right now in the NBA as I have been heating up with the exception of that last total play...

Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I also made a small play on the moneyline for CLE...The Cavs have finally been playing up to expectations the past 2 weeks after playing horribly the first 5 weeks...They have won 4 straight games at home against 2 good teams (DEN & LAC) and 2 other teams that were supposed to be good this year (CHI & NY)...This is an odd spot here to fade Portland, too...Portland is the last team in the league that has not had a NC (not cover) 2 games in a row this season...Tonight starts Week 8 of the season...So they have gone 7 weeks without ever Not Covering 2 games in a row...Indy was right with them until they lost to DET last night, so the Pacers have their FIRST NC2 streak of the year now at the end of Week 7...Every team but 3 in the league had a NC2 by the end of Week 3...PORT, Indy and (surprisingly) PHOE made it through 5 weeks without a NC2...I don't have time to check my database to see how many teams in the past 30 years made it into Week 8 without a NC2, but I doubt it is very many...This looks like a good spot to me for PORT to get their first NC2 as Cleveland is playing much better basketball the past 2 weeks as evidenced by their comeback against the Heat in Miami their last time out as they erased a 19-point deficit on the road to come back and take the lead in the 4th Quarter against the Heat until Miami won the game in the final 2 minutes...

GL...

Tuesday's Rankings:

Sides:

1) Cle, 2) Den, 3) LAL, 4) Sac, 5) NO

Totals:

1) Sac un, 2) LAL un, 3) Cle ov, 4) NO un, 5) Den un

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Play #2 for the season...

Houston/Sacramento Over 213.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- The recent trade for Rudy Gay set up a new starting lineup that has Isaiah Thomas as the starting point guard now...And Thomas LOVES to run...He has started the last 3 games and scored 24, 20 & 29 points and the 29 came in Rudy Gay's first game as he couldn't play until all 7 players in that trade passed a physical...All 3 games were Overs and the Kings have gone Over 5 straight games now...And Houston?...Yeah, last time I checked, they also like to run and gun and welcome a fast PACE and oh by the way, the Rockets are 2nd in the league in PPG (and were 1st in PPG until Saturday night when PORT scored 139 vs. my Sixers to overtake the Rockets to move up to #1 in that category by a whisker)...I don't expect this game to be as easy an Over as the Port/Phi game was Saturday night, but I do expect this game to get into the 220's...

GL...

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

First play of the NBA 2013-14 season...

Indiana Pacers -3.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- This is the Pacers' SuperBowl tonight...This game has been circled on their calendar since the NBA schedule was released...And now we catch a perfect storm of strong trends all falling the Pacers' way tonight...Not only is this a Statement Game for the Pacers, it is also a revenge game as the Heat eliminated them from the playoffs last season and this is their first meeting since that elimination AND we have the Pacers off their worst loss of the season, getting trounced by the Thunder on Sunday, so it's a strong bounce-back spot...Everything points to the Pacers winning this game by 7 to 10 points tonight...

GL...