6-5, +$50
Oklahoma City/Boston under 194, laying $110 to win $100 -- Kevin Durant is OUT tonight...I was going to take the Celtics +7, but now with Durant out, you have that situational trend where the team rises up when a star player gets hurt to win that first game in his absence...BUT, how do you replace 40+ points a night which is close to what Durant is averaging the past 2 weeks?...
May have more later as I look at the Board now, late start to my day...
GL...
Friday, January 24, 2014
Ok, help me understand...
Vegas posts an opening line of -4 or -4.5 for Phoenix in their Friday match-up with the Wizards out in sunny Arizona (where it happens to be 75 during the day compared to highs in the teens in PA with wind chills under zero most of the day -- maybe I need to move to the Phoenix area)...
But the line opens at -4 or -4.5 and goes down to -3 or even -2.5 at some shops and of course I see VegasInsider with 96% of the people betting Phoenix and see 80% of the dummies on Covers/Wagerline picking Phoenix (which is NO surprise to me) because I kind of have the same question:
After seeing the Suns dominate the Indiana Pacers (the best team in the league) the final 3 quarters of their game WED night at Phoenix, ending in a 24-point shellacking, the most points the Pacers allowed all season, why on earth one might ask are the Suns only favored by 3 points over the Washington freaking Wizards??...
Since Vegas is not in the business in handing out free money, I would say the Wizards are definitely the play here and will probably get a bet from me tonight...
Although, actually, in this instance, Vegas IS giving us a free winner as the line is basically telling everyone that the Wizards are going to cover that line (and probably win the game straight up)...
What is that line from the movie Casino that Joe Pesci's character Nicky Santoro said?...Oh yeah:
I left out the slur...
Ok, I am not robbin' Vegas, but if they want to give me a free winner, I'll take one...
So this game and maybe another 1 or 2 others may be posted later tonight as plays...
But the line opens at -4 or -4.5 and goes down to -3 or even -2.5 at some shops and of course I see VegasInsider with 96% of the people betting Phoenix and see 80% of the dummies on Covers/Wagerline picking Phoenix (which is NO surprise to me) because I kind of have the same question:
After seeing the Suns dominate the Indiana Pacers (the best team in the league) the final 3 quarters of their game WED night at Phoenix, ending in a 24-point shellacking, the most points the Pacers allowed all season, why on earth one might ask are the Suns only favored by 3 points over the Washington freaking Wizards??...
Since Vegas is not in the business in handing out free money, I would say the Wizards are definitely the play here and will probably get a bet from me tonight...
Although, actually, in this instance, Vegas IS giving us a free winner as the line is basically telling everyone that the Wizards are going to cover that line (and probably win the game straight up)...
What is that line from the movie Casino that Joe Pesci's character Nicky Santoro said?...Oh yeah:
A million times I wanted to yell in his fuckin' ear, "This is Las Vegas. We're supposed to be out here
robbin' you dumb fuckin' bleep"...
I left out the slur...
Ok, I am not robbin' Vegas, but if they want to give me a free winner, I'll take one...
So this game and maybe another 1 or 2 others may be posted later tonight as plays...
Friday, January 17, 2014
2 plays for Friday...
I like a lot, but will play these 2, short on time, so short write-ups:
5-4, +$60
Miami Heat -10.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Revenge spot for Philly beating them in Week 1 and the Heat currently have their 1st 3-game losing streak of the year and had an embarrassing loss last time out vs. the Wizards in the Nation's Capital so this is an extreme bounce-back spot and Mario Chalmers also returns tonight for the Heat...Philly has been struggling since their west-coast trip...
Golden State Warriors Pick, laying $100 to win $100 -- OKC coming off a hard-fought win last night at HOU, down 14 at the half and they exerted a lot of defensive energy to hold HOU to 19 points in the 2nd half...GS in bounce-back mode off a tough home loss 2 nights ago and they have been a better team on the Road recently anyway as I look for them to respond tonight and take care of the Thunder, who are still without Westbrook...
GL...
5-4, +$60
Miami Heat -10.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Revenge spot for Philly beating them in Week 1 and the Heat currently have their 1st 3-game losing streak of the year and had an embarrassing loss last time out vs. the Wizards in the Nation's Capital so this is an extreme bounce-back spot and Mario Chalmers also returns tonight for the Heat...Philly has been struggling since their west-coast trip...
Golden State Warriors Pick, laying $100 to win $100 -- OKC coming off a hard-fought win last night at HOU, down 14 at the half and they exerted a lot of defensive energy to hold HOU to 19 points in the 2nd half...GS in bounce-back mode off a tough home loss 2 nights ago and they have been a better team on the Road recently anyway as I look for them to respond tonight and take care of the Thunder, who are still without Westbrook...
GL...
Saturday, January 4, 2014
2 more plays...
I am going to add 2 more plays for tonight...
Cleveland/Brooklyn under 192, laying $110 to win $100 -- No Kylie Irving again tonight for the Cavs and we saw last time out that their offense is out of sync with him missing as they not only miss his 22 PPG but his 6 assists per game...Brooklyn is last in the league in PACE, so this looks to be a boring half-court game with hopefully a lot of bricks going up as the Cavs were 35 points below the total last time out (their first game without Irving in the lineup) and that was an overtime game...
San Antonio Spurs -9.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Generally speaking, you take the team who just lost an injured superstar because the entire team will rise up and win their first game without their superstar (see Cleveland on Thursday and there are many examples from this season already)...But, to me, the Clips rose up last night to win with Chris Paul (Out 3 to 5 weeks after separating his shoulder last night in case you haven't heard) as Paul went out early in the 2H and LAC had to battle almost an entire half without him to win that game late as the Mavs were up by a point with less than 2 minutes to play before the Clips scored the final 8 points of the game...Add the fact that this is a revenge game for the Spurs, who got trounced by the Clips by 23 at Staples 3 weeks ago and add the fact that the Spurs are 7-0 (6-1 ATS) following losses this year and are in bounce-back mode tonight after losing to the Knicks 2 nights ago, you can bet your bottom dollar that the Spurs aren't feeling sorry for the Clips tonight as this could potentially be a bit of a beat down...
GL...
Cleveland/Brooklyn under 192, laying $110 to win $100 -- No Kylie Irving again tonight for the Cavs and we saw last time out that their offense is out of sync with him missing as they not only miss his 22 PPG but his 6 assists per game...Brooklyn is last in the league in PACE, so this looks to be a boring half-court game with hopefully a lot of bricks going up as the Cavs were 35 points below the total last time out (their first game without Irving in the lineup) and that was an overtime game...
San Antonio Spurs -9.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Generally speaking, you take the team who just lost an injured superstar because the entire team will rise up and win their first game without their superstar (see Cleveland on Thursday and there are many examples from this season already)...But, to me, the Clips rose up last night to win with Chris Paul (Out 3 to 5 weeks after separating his shoulder last night in case you haven't heard) as Paul went out early in the 2H and LAC had to battle almost an entire half without him to win that game late as the Mavs were up by a point with less than 2 minutes to play before the Clips scored the final 8 points of the game...Add the fact that this is a revenge game for the Spurs, who got trounced by the Clips by 23 at Staples 3 weeks ago and add the fact that the Spurs are 7-0 (6-1 ATS) following losses this year and are in bounce-back mode tonight after losing to the Knicks 2 nights ago, you can bet your bottom dollar that the Spurs aren't feeling sorry for the Clips tonight as this could potentially be a bit of a beat down...
GL...
If at first you don't succeed, Mr. Kidd...
Try, try again, Mr. Wint...
A line from a James Bond movie, Diamonds Are Forever (ok, I am dating myself with that movie, but that was one of my favorite Bond movies)...
3-3, -$30
Philadelphia/Portland over 224.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I am using that quote as I lost a tough one on THUR as the Philly/Sac game stayed under the total by less than a bucket and there were 3 shots and 2 FTs missed in the final minute of the game...But I am not blaming Philly for that Over not happening, as Philly put up more than enough points to cash that Over, but I am blaming SAC as I expected them to score another 15 points and they didn't deliver...Now we have Philly going to Rip City to play a team who usually does NOT disappoint when it comes to putting up points as they have the #1 rated offense in the league in PPG and offensive efficiency...And they are far from a defensive juggernaut as they rank 24th in defensive efficiency (and they allowed CHAR to score 104 points 2 days ago, the most points the Bobcats have scored on the Road in regulation time all season)...And the Bobcats have only scored over 100 points in regulation time 5 times all season in 34 games..Philly doesn't have that problem as they have scored 100 or more in 6 straight and 8 of their last 9 games...Back to PORT though...When you combine those 2 stats that I mentioned (1st in PPG and Off Eff), you have an Over Machine, which PORT has been recently (10 of their last 11 and 16 of their last 18 Over) and all season (25-8 to the Over)...Now I am not crazy about taking a game total Over when one of the participants (the Blazers) tied a team record with 21 treys 2 days ago vs. Charlotte and shot 58% from the field and over 60% from 3-land...However, the Blazers do have a days rest between games and besides, we are talking about Portland here, who scores points like it's a video game on some nights (scoring over 100 points in 27 of their 33 games)...And speaking of some nights, does anyone remember Saturday, December 14th (2013)?...That was the other game where the Blazers made 21 three-pointers...Against who?...Oh yeah, the Sixers, at Philly, in a 139-105 rout...Am I saying these 2 teams will put up 244 again tonight?...No...But I wouldn't rule it out, either...I don't expect Portland to score 139 again, but I also don't expect Philly to score 105 again...Both teams should be in the 112 to 118 range, which puts this game Over the total...PACE will not be a problem tonight...Ok, I lost a tough one last time out, but again, "If at first you don't succeed, try, try again...And I am grabbing the overnight line in case this total creeps upward a point or 2...
GL...
A line from a James Bond movie, Diamonds Are Forever (ok, I am dating myself with that movie, but that was one of my favorite Bond movies)...
3-3, -$30
Philadelphia/Portland over 224.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I am using that quote as I lost a tough one on THUR as the Philly/Sac game stayed under the total by less than a bucket and there were 3 shots and 2 FTs missed in the final minute of the game...But I am not blaming Philly for that Over not happening, as Philly put up more than enough points to cash that Over, but I am blaming SAC as I expected them to score another 15 points and they didn't deliver...Now we have Philly going to Rip City to play a team who usually does NOT disappoint when it comes to putting up points as they have the #1 rated offense in the league in PPG and offensive efficiency...And they are far from a defensive juggernaut as they rank 24th in defensive efficiency (and they allowed CHAR to score 104 points 2 days ago, the most points the Bobcats have scored on the Road in regulation time all season)...And the Bobcats have only scored over 100 points in regulation time 5 times all season in 34 games..Philly doesn't have that problem as they have scored 100 or more in 6 straight and 8 of their last 9 games...Back to PORT though...When you combine those 2 stats that I mentioned (1st in PPG and Off Eff), you have an Over Machine, which PORT has been recently (10 of their last 11 and 16 of their last 18 Over) and all season (25-8 to the Over)...Now I am not crazy about taking a game total Over when one of the participants (the Blazers) tied a team record with 21 treys 2 days ago vs. Charlotte and shot 58% from the field and over 60% from 3-land...However, the Blazers do have a days rest between games and besides, we are talking about Portland here, who scores points like it's a video game on some nights (scoring over 100 points in 27 of their 33 games)...And speaking of some nights, does anyone remember Saturday, December 14th (2013)?...That was the other game where the Blazers made 21 three-pointers...Against who?...Oh yeah, the Sixers, at Philly, in a 139-105 rout...Am I saying these 2 teams will put up 244 again tonight?...No...But I wouldn't rule it out, either...I don't expect Portland to score 139 again, but I also don't expect Philly to score 105 again...Both teams should be in the 112 to 118 range, which puts this game Over the total...PACE will not be a problem tonight...Ok, I lost a tough one last time out, but again, "If at first you don't succeed, try, try again...And I am grabbing the overnight line in case this total creeps upward a point or 2...
GL...
Thursday, January 2, 2014
Thursday play...
Back from a posting layoff...Was red hot for about a week when I posted last time, but my sides have gone ice cold the past week...I may have a side later or another total, but for now, let's try and beat another line movement upwards...
3-2, +$80
Philadelphia/Sacramento over 218.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Will keep this write-up short and sweet (or simple) but we have Philly (27th in the league in defensive efficiency and 1st in the league in PACE, a deadly combo for Overs) and Sacramento (28th in the league in defensive efficiency) who have been playing a LOT of Overs recently...Well, Philly has all year as I believe they and PORT lead the league in Overs and if not, they are certainly in the top 5 in Overs...SAC has gone Over 7 straight (1 was OT-aided) and Philly is 6-1-1 to the Over their last 8 and the push and Under would have been Over on the Opening Line if you got it quick enough...Philly also 6-2 to the Over on back-enders, and again, it's 7-1 to the Over in this spot of you got the Lakers Over 2 games ago on the Opening Line...Over me...
GL...
3-2, +$80
Philadelphia/Sacramento over 218.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Will keep this write-up short and sweet (or simple) but we have Philly (27th in the league in defensive efficiency and 1st in the league in PACE, a deadly combo for Overs) and Sacramento (28th in the league in defensive efficiency) who have been playing a LOT of Overs recently...Well, Philly has all year as I believe they and PORT lead the league in Overs and if not, they are certainly in the top 5 in Overs...SAC has gone Over 7 straight (1 was OT-aided) and Philly is 6-1-1 to the Over their last 8 and the push and Under would have been Over on the Opening Line if you got it quick enough...Philly also 6-2 to the Over on back-enders, and again, it's 7-1 to the Over in this spot of you got the Lakers Over 2 games ago on the Opening Line...Over me...
GL...
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