I can take the Heat...

8-6, +$140

Miami Heat +2.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I should have grabbed the 3.5 last night and then I should have grabbed the 3 earlier today, but I am still taking it at 2.5 and I did sprinkle a decent-sized play on the moneyline...Russell Westbrook is a game-time decision an I hope he plays as I feel this would help this Heat play as OKC would have to re-adjust their rotations to re-insert Westbrook back into the lineup, a lineup that has done just fine without him the last 27 games (20-7 SU)...The Heat were in the early stages of their 27-game win-streak 12 months ago and they seem to be heating up again this time of year and with the Pacers faltering a bit as of late, Miami is just 2 games out of the top seed for the East and 1 back in the loss column...So Miami is closer to the #1 now then they have been all season...Revenge spot for the Heat after getting trounced at Miami earlier in the season by OKC...This won't be easy, but LeBron is playing his best basketball of the season right now, arguably, and I feel he will find a way to will Miami to win this game, even if it means he has to score the last 10 points of the game himself to do it...

GL...

"New coach angle" in play tonight...

7-6, +$40

Detroit Pistons +3, laying $110 to win $100 -- I am contractually obligated to take the "New Coach's first game angle" for this game...

Now I may have missed one somewhere (I hope not), but over the last 3 NBA and NFL seasons, when a new coach takes over their first game in the middle of the season, their teams have gone 11-2 ATS in those 2 sports combined...It was 11-1 until the Houston Texans lost this past December 15th after Gary Kubiak was fired the day after a THUR night game...But the Texans were such a mess that I didn't even touch that game despite the angle/trend...So many injuries...The other Not Cover was also another unique situation where Mike Brown of the Lakers was fired 2 Novembers ago after the Lakers started 1-4, but new Coach Mike D'Antoni was recovering from knee surgery and couldn't take the sidelines until 4 games later and the Lakers DID WIN that game for D'Antoni at Home, but they they didn't cover the 6.5 point spread as they won by 5...

People may remember when Romeo Crenell took over as Chiefs head coach in December of 2011 (12/18/11) and as 13-point dogs, they beat the undefeated Packers straight up, ending their 19-game winning streak and ending their perfect season that year...The last NBA coach to be fired midseason was Alvin Gentry, who was fired last January, and the Suns won their next game by 10 as 3-point dogs...I don't think anybody else got fired after him until a bunch of coaches got fired after the season ended...

I would also argue you can add 4 more games from 2012 in the NFL to this tally from the past 3 years where teams rose up to win games...

When Chuck Pagano took a 12-week leave of absence in September of 2012, the Colts won their first game that Bruce Arians filled in for him as head coach, 30-27 over the Packers as 6-point dogs after being down 18 at halftime of that game...And when Pagano returned later in the season on DEC 30 as 6.5 dogs, they won outright by 12 over the Texans...Also that season, when Jerry Brown of the Cowboys died in a car accident, Dallas won their next game outright at Cincinnati as a 3.5 point underdog...And when Jovan Belcher of the Chiefs committed suicide after killing his girlfriend, the Chiefs won their next game outright against Carolina as 5.5 Dogs...

If you count these 4 games, that's another 4-0 to this angle where "teams rise up" for a new coach (or those 2 Chuck-Strong examples) or for a fallen teammate who died or was killed within days of an upcoming game...

So Maurice Cheeks was fired by the Pistons yesterday so one of my many, many, many situational trends states that "you take the team whose coach just got fired to win their first game for their new coach"...I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe this trend/angle/situational spot is either 8-1 or 7-1 ATS the last 8 or 9 instances in the NBA...So the Pistons would be the play tonight...

These recent percentages with this angle do NOT guarantee a win by the Pistons...No situational trend is full-proof or "guaranteed"...

Especially when this firing is a little puzzling as Detroit has won 2 straight games and 4 of their last 6...Usually when a coach gets fired, they have been losing games left and right and the team is hungry to go out and play for their new coach to get a "W"...But there must be discontent behind the scenes or something going on for the GM Joe Dumars to fire Mo Cheeks after just 50 games...

But again, anyone who has followed me on my blog over the years knows that I was going to be on the Pistons tonight, and I am...

GL...

Saturday Night Fever...

One play, although I should play 2...My top side is Atlanta, but I am going to bet this total:

7-5, +$150

Milwaukee/Memphis under 181, laying $110 to win $100 -- These 2 teams already played a 159 at Milwaukee 16 days ago and now the guy who controls the ball for Memphis, their point-guard, Mike Conley, the guy who often drives to the hole with a floater with less than 5 seconds left on the shot clock or 1 of 2 guys who can hit a 3 for the Grizz is very doubtful after spraining his ankle last night...MILW already 9-3 to the Under in back-enders this season and MEMP has gone under in 9 straight, which is EVERY game since Marc Gasol returned from the lineup after about 5 or 6 weeks of being out with a sprained knee...

GL...