7-6, +$40
Detroit Pistons +3, laying $110 to win $100 -- I am
contractually obligated to take the "New Coach's first game angle"
for this game...
Now I may have missed one somewhere (I hope not), but over
the last 3 NBA and NFL seasons, when a new coach takes over their first game in
the middle of the season, their teams have gone 11-2 ATS in those 2 sports
combined...It was 11-1 until the Houston Texans lost this past December 15th
after Gary Kubiak was fired the day after a THUR night game...But the Texans
were such a mess that I didn't even touch that game despite the
angle/trend...So many injuries...The other Not Cover was also another unique situation
where Mike Brown of the Lakers was fired 2 Novembers ago after the Lakers
started 1-4, but new Coach Mike D'Antoni was recovering from knee surgery and
couldn't take the sidelines until 4 games later and the Lakers DID WIN that
game for D'Antoni at Home, but they they didn't cover the 6.5 point spread as
they won by 5...
People may remember when Romeo Crenell took over as Chiefs
head coach in December of 2011 (12/18/11) and as 13-point dogs, they beat the
undefeated Packers straight up, ending their 19-game winning streak and ending
their perfect season that year...The last NBA coach to be fired midseason was
Alvin Gentry, who was fired last January, and the Suns won their next game by
10 as 3-point dogs...I don't think anybody else got fired after him until a
bunch of coaches got fired after the season ended...
I would also argue you can add 4 more games from 2012 in the
NFL to this tally from the past 3 years where teams rose up to win games...
When Chuck Pagano took a 12-week leave of absence in September
of 2012, the Colts won their first game that Bruce Arians filled in for him as
head coach, 30-27 over the Packers as 6-point dogs after being down 18 at
halftime of that game...And when Pagano returned later in the season on DEC 30
as 6.5 dogs, they won outright by 12 over the Texans...Also that season, when
Jerry Brown of the Cowboys died in a car accident, Dallas won their next game
outright at Cincinnati as a 3.5 point underdog...And when Jovan Belcher of the
Chiefs committed suicide after killing his girlfriend, the Chiefs won their
next game outright against Carolina as 5.5 Dogs...
If you count these 4 games, that's another 4-0 to this angle
where "teams rise up" for a new coach (or those 2 Chuck-Strong
examples) or for a fallen teammate who died or was killed within days of an
upcoming game...
So Maurice Cheeks was fired by the Pistons yesterday so one
of my many, many, many situational trends states that "you take the team
whose coach just got fired to win their first game for their new coach"...I
don't have the numbers in front of me, but I believe this
trend/angle/situational spot is either 8-1 or 7-1 ATS the last 8 or 9 instances
in the NBA...So the Pistons would be the play tonight...
These recent percentages with this angle do NOT guarantee a
win by the Pistons...No situational trend is full-proof or
"guaranteed"...
Especially when this firing is a little puzzling as Detroit
has won 2 straight games and 4 of their last 6...Usually when a coach gets
fired, they have been losing games left and right and the team is hungry to go
out and play for their new coach to get a "W"...But there must be
discontent behind the scenes or something going on for the GM Joe Dumars to
fire Mo Cheeks after just 50 games...
But again, anyone who has followed me on my blog over the
years knows that I was going to be on the Pistons tonight, and I am...
GL...
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