Saturday, January 4, 2014

If at first you don't succeed, Mr. Kidd...

Try, try again, Mr. Wint...

A line from a James Bond movie, Diamonds Are Forever (ok, I am dating myself with that movie, but that was one of my favorite Bond movies)...

3-3, -$30

Philadelphia/Portland over 224.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I am using that quote as I lost a tough one on THUR as the Philly/Sac game stayed under the total by less than a bucket and there were 3 shots and 2 FTs missed in the final minute of the game...But I am not blaming Philly for that Over not happening, as Philly put up more than enough points to cash that Over, but I am blaming SAC as I expected them to score another 15 points and they didn't deliver...Now we have Philly going to Rip City to play a team who usually does NOT disappoint when it comes to putting up points as they have the #1 rated offense in the league in PPG and offensive efficiency...And they are far from a defensive juggernaut as they rank 24th in defensive efficiency (and they allowed CHAR to score 104 points 2 days ago, the most points the Bobcats have scored on the Road in regulation time all season)...And the Bobcats have only scored over 100 points in regulation time 5 times all season in 34 games..Philly doesn't have that problem as they have scored 100 or more in 6 straight and 8 of their last 9 games...Back to PORT though...When you combine those 2 stats that I mentioned (1st in PPG and Off Eff), you have an Over Machine, which PORT has been recently (10 of their last 11 and 16 of their last 18 Over) and all season (25-8 to the Over)...Now I am not crazy about taking a game total Over when one of the participants (the Blazers) tied a team record with 21 treys 2 days ago vs. Charlotte and shot 58% from the field and over 60% from 3-land...However, the Blazers do have a days rest between games and besides, we are talking about Portland here, who scores points like it's a video game on some nights (scoring over 100 points in 27 of their 33 games)...And speaking of some nights, does anyone remember Saturday, December 14th (2013)?...That was the other game where the Blazers made 21 three-pointers...Against who?...Oh yeah, the Sixers, at Philly, in a 139-105 rout...Am I saying these 2 teams will put up 244 again tonight?...No...But I wouldn't rule it out, either...I don't expect Portland to score 139 again, but I also don't expect Philly to score 105 again...Both teams should be in the 112 to 118 range, which puts this game Over the total...PACE will not be a problem tonight...Ok, I lost a tough one last time out, but again, "If at first you don't succeed, try, try again...And I am grabbing the overnight line in case this total creeps upward a point or 2...

GL...

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