Friday, December 30, 2011

3Q play...

Playing the Miami Heat -3.5, -115, 3Q, laying $115 to win $100...

GL...

2H play...

Overall 4-1, +$290

NBA: 2-1, +$90


New York Knicks -2, -105, 2H, laying $105 to win $100 (Pinny) -- I have my reasons...


GL...

Wednesday, December 28, 2011

2H play...

Miami Heat -11.5, -105, 2H, laying $105 to win $100 -- I have my reasons...


GL...

2H glances...

I am 5-2 on 2H plays, well, that I did NOT play. so far...Sucks not to have the guts to play these games because it is early in the season as perhaps what I need to realize here is that I have been a rock-solid 2H capper the past 2+ years, well, even longer than that really...More like 8 years...

This Indy/Tor game should go Over the 2H total...It's not a top-flyte play, the same way that Atl/NJ over and Utah/LAL Over were not top-flyte 2H plays last night (although both were close), but this game is also damn close to being a "top" play...Both Overs last night won and one of them I did post about...I do have specific criteria that I look for as soon as the game goes to half and many times, even BEFORE the score goes to half, I have it on my radar and am tracking it the last 3 to 4 minutes to see if stays on track for a play...

Probably a play I should make, but I am going to watch it and NOT play it just for "mental note-taking" purposes...

First total bet...

NBA 1-0, + $100

New York/Golden State Over 201.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I promised myself that I would wait until Week 2 before I made a totals bet, but hey, some promises have to be broken when opportunities present themselves...I got the total at 201, but there are still plenty of 201.5 totals on the Board as the total is rising as expected...

I know all that new GS Coach Mark Jackson has done the last 2 weeks is preach defense and his players talk about just that in every interview I have seen with GS players at half-time and during post-game talks whenever a microphone is put in front of a Warriors' player's face...I also know Curry is doubtful for Wednesday's game...

But I also know that GS shot 39% in their opener and then 47% against a very good defensive team vs. Chicago in Game 2 and they now have a 3rd consecutive home game in 4 days and I expect the shooting to continue to improve...The PACE improved for GS in their 2nd game and with the Knicks coming to town, I don't expect the Pace to slow one bit...NY had a very frentic Pace in their opener, and I expect more of the same Wednesday night...Sure, NY now has a stopper in the middle with Tyson Chandler, but he is prone to foul trouble...

I also know that a coach can preach and preach defense all day long, but when you get on the court and see Melo, Amare, Douglas and Fields sprinting up and down the court off a missed a shot, you are going to get caught up in the Pace of the game and run around like maniacs for spurts...

A 1Q bet will be tempting, too...

This total is just too low for a NY/GS match-up, even early in a lock-out season...Total will probably go off around 205 by game time and I still like it Over that total...

GL...

Jazz/Lakers 2H...

I am tired and ready for bed after working 14 hours today, so I am not going to make this play, but all factors point to a 2H Over here...

The PACE is just fine for an Over and I expect Utah to quicken the pace even more in the 2H...

No play, as I still have 4 months of the regular season games left and ample opportunities, so I will just watch (or look at the score after I wake up on WED) and see how it turns out...

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

3-games-in-3-days trend debuts tonight...

I loved this trend during the strike-shortened 1998-99 season...Loved it...Did very well with it...There were 64 teams who had a 3-in-3 spot that season...

But, as they say, past performance does NOT guarantee future results...So I cannot assume that the Away Teams will clean up covering all games where either the away team, home team or both teams were playing their third game in 3 days...

I will break down those numbers later tonight...

For now, I have to look at the only team in 1998-99 who played 3 straight right out of the gate like the Lakers are doing tonight...

The Atlanta Hawks started out quick in 1998-99, winning 4 of their first 5, and their only loss was that 3rd game in 3 nights spot...It was also the back-end of a home-and-home with NJ...NJ was rested for the front-end at ATL, but the Hawks won by 5, Not Covering the 5.5 point spread...Both teams then went to NJ where the Nets won by 10 the following night...

Which, unfortunately, doesn't compare too well to this Lakers' situation tonight, because LAL is 0-2 SU compared to the Hawks 2-0 SU 13 seasons ago and the Lakers are coming Home for this 3rd game while the Hawks were on the Road...

I will break down the totals later, too, but there were more Overs than Unders...

But since the Away Teams had major success covering spreads in all 3-in-3 situations in 1998-99, the default play this season will always be "take the Away team", unless evidence later in the season dictates we need to reverse this...

With the Lakers at 0-2 to start the season, I actually see some value with the Lake-Show...I doubt if I will take them, but this more or less looks like a no-play for me...

Monday, December 26, 2011

Taking it easy Week 1...

I am only going to post my best plays...And that means I will be taking it easy in Week 1 because I need to see how these games play out at this point of the season and compare these results to the strike-shortened 1998-99 season, which I have detailed in my database...

Very rare to get a great situational spot on Opening Day, but it was there, so I took advantage...Every play this year will be for 1 unit, although the old me would have plastered 5 units on that first play...

I may post a "lean of the night", maybe, we'll see, and if I had to post one tonight, it would be Denver...But I am not playing it...I have off tonight and will have my NBA package on and will be scrutinizing 2H plays all night and if a good one pops up, I will play it and post it...

With my busy nightly work schedule of the past 4+ years, I have had to adapt to this lack of time and in doing so, I have now become a fairly adept 2H capper, with some regular plays sprinkled in along the way...

So 60 to 75% of my plays (maybe more) may be 2H plays this season, as they were the last 2 or 3 seasons...And I probably won't have time to post any analysis on those plays as I was recruited to have my picks tracked at a tracking site for this season, so I will need to file my play there first, then bet the game, then go to my blog and then hit a forum or 2...

I am fairly sure I won't play a total till Week 2, but the Unders should be plentiful in Week 1, but apparently with the Internet, folks already know this and are jumping on Unders here tonight as it seems like every total has come down...

GL this season folks...

Thursday, December 22, 2011

First bet of the NBA 2011-12 season...

All picks tracked at TipsterPicks.com...

1 unit = $100

Overall: 2-0, +$200 (2 NFL picks)

NBA: 0-0, $0

Miami Heat -4, laying $106 to win $100 -- I am kinda ticked I didn't jump on this one as soon as the line came out about 2 weeks ago as I loved this one as soon as it was announced by the NBA schedule-makers...Lost some value, but am I going to make a 4-point line movement take me off a game that I am convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Heat will win?...

Nope...

I have a LOT of trends that I like, and the motivational trends are my favorites, because they win and they stand the test of time...You still have to throw out the anomalies, but they stand the test of time...The trend that I like here is:

You take the team (Miami) who is playing the opponent (Dallas) who eliminated them from the playoffs the previous season for the first time in the current regular season...

Miami has all the motivation here...My database only goes back to the 1981-82 season, but in the last 30 seasons, only once before have the 2 teams in the Finals the season before met opening day, and that was FEB 5th of 1999, ironically enough, the other strike-shortened season...I mentioned that anomalies have to be thrown out...Well, that game has to be "thrown out" because Utah, who lost to the Michael Jordan Chicago Bulls in the Finals the year before (for the 2nd straight year) hosted the Bulls on 2/5/99, opening night and the Bulls roster looked a LOT different that night at Utah than it did in the Finals the previous season as Jordan, Scottie Pippen and others blew town and the Jazz were 17-point favorites...Utah won the game (by 8), but could not cover the mammoth line...

But the last 6 instances, the Finals loser has gone 5-1 SU and 3-0-3 ATS and the Away team is 4-1 SU and 2-0-3 in those 5 games...The Finals loser is 19-11 SU and 15-12-3 ATS the past 30 seasons...The Finals loser as an Away team is 10-5-3 ATS in this spot...

LeBron's Cavaliers beat the Spurs on 1/17/08 at San Antonio as 7.5 point DOGs...

These Heat players will be stewing as they watch the Mavs get their rings and the banner gets raised...And with Tyson Chandler gone (to NY), I don't know who is going to stop the Heat if they decide to take the ball to the hoop with regularity...

The Big 3 now have a full season under their belts and they are ready and raring to go this season...They have a LOT to prove in 2011-12 and they will want to make a statement on Opening Day on National TV to make sure that everyone knows the Heat are the team to beat, for real, this time around...

GL...

NBA Preseason "Rule of Thumb" doing well again...

As stated last night, DOGs and Unders the "rule of thumb" for picking NBA Preseason games, and tonight, through 7 games, we have DOGs at 6-1 ATS and the Under at 5-2...

20-6 the last 2 nights with one game pending...

For NCAAF Bowl Games, the "Rule of Thumb" is to take the DOGs and the Overs...The more points the DOG gets, the stronger the play...Another sweep tonight as the Poinsettia Bowl was an Over and the 9.5 point DOG covered fairly easily as they were up 7 about halfway into the 4Q before losing the game, but covering...

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Brewers7 tracked by a professional tracking site...

Here is my page on the tracking site:

TipsterPicks

As far as Tuesday's NBA preseason action goes, it went true to form as the DOGs covered 5 of 6 and 4 of 6 went Under...I have always said as a Rule of Thumb, you take DOGs of 4 points or more in the NBA preseason...The more points they give me, the more I like the DOG...There are exceptions to every rule, of course...

I already have a play lined up for Christmas Day...

Very unique situation that I cannot pass up as I am a big situational capper...

Stay tuned...

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Another easy Under in an afternoon NBA game...

Already had a an easy under on Saturday afternoon when the Knicks visited the Nets and this Boston/Toronto game this afternoon is looking like a Stone Under...I always look at Unders to begin with in NBA preseason games, especially with this brief preseason where there was about a week's worth of training camp...

But everyone who knows me knows how I love the NBA Unders with games that start before 4:00 p.m. local time in the time zone where the game is being played at, and the earlier the start time the more I like the Under and that has been very successful in the past several years in the NBA for regular season games...

Looks like there will be a 2-0 start for that trend in the preseason this year...

I also made 2 NFL plays on http://www.tipsterpicks.com/, a website that tracks handicappers...I have been heating up in the NFL, going 4-1 the last 2 weeks...I have KC and Miami and those 2 picks were posted last night on tipsterpicks...

The 2011-12 NBA season draws near...

With my busy schedule, it may be impossible to post some nights, but I am excited for this shortened/condensed season, because I had one of my best seasons the last time the NBA had a shortened season in 1998-99...

Of course, past results do not guarantee future performance, but I will post as much as I am able to this season and we'll see how it goes...

Friday, January 14, 2011

Friday 2H play...

29-20, +$815

Sacramento/New York Over 107.5, 2H, laying $110  to win $100 -- Pace is there for an Over and we only need to have the game hit 196 points and we get this 2H Over for a contest that has a game total of 220...Knicks not a bad 2H play, too...

GL...

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Wednesday thoughts...

A little low on time again, but i'll be watching for 2nd half plays...

I do like the Knicks +3.5 on the 1st-half line and the Nets +6 on the game line...

Monta Ellis a game-time decision for GS vs. the Lakers, who have owned the Warriors the last couple of years as GS has had no answer for the trees the lakers can plant in the paint...Leaning to the Clippers a little bit, as the Heat have been taken to the limit the first 2 games of this 5-game road trip with 2 OT wins...Clippers playing better basketball of late, winning 7 of their last 10...

We'll see if any 2H opportunities present themselves and who knows, maybe I'll play a late game...

Random NBA Database stats...

Been logging a lot of hours at work and haven't been capping too heavily the past few days, so I'll just lay out some random stats for the 2010-2011 season from my NBA database, which has stats, lines and trends for 20 seasons now...

First a follow-up on the announcement I made on Wednesday, January 5th, where I said the Overs were coming that night and for a few days...

Wed: Overs 8-3
Thur: Overs 2-0
Fri: Overs 7-4
Sat: Overs 6-2

Record: Overs 23-9 those 4 days...

Sundays are historically a good day for Unders in the NBA with the different start times, so I would have stopped betting all the Overs after Saturday...So the Over burst lasted 5 days as remember, the Overs were 5-2 on the Tuesday that alerted me to the Over burst about to come...These bursts usually last about 4 or 5 days, as did this one...

Now some random stats from my database (as of 1/10):

ATL: 18-7 to the Under vs. conference opponents, yet 10-4 to the Over vs. non-conference opponents...
BOS: 13-2 to the Under their last 15 first-half team totals
CHA: 11-23-1 ATS on the before-the-game 3Q line this season...
CHI: 7-1 ATS in the 2nd half when trailing by double-digits at half-time
CLE: 1-7 ATS their last 8 second-halves when trailing by double-digits at half-time (includes LAL debacle on 1/11)
DAL: 12-2 ATS on the Road
DEN: 27-9-1 to the Under in the 1Q this season (including PHOE game on 1/11) -- started season 12-0 to the Under
DET: 11-6 to the Under in Non-conference games, yet 13-7 to the Over in conference games
GS: 23-7 to the Under in their first 30 1st Quarter Team totals, although they have now gone Over their last 7 straight
HOU: 10-4 to the Under in non-conference games
IND: 16-5 to the Under in conference games and had 9 straight 2H team totals Under going into their 1/11 game (both of these went Over against Philly on 1/11, although the game total as a strong Over chart-play)
LAC: 25-10-1 to the Over on 1Q team totals and those have gone Over their last 11 in a row
LAL: 12-5 to the Under in non-conference games
MEM: 13-5-2 to the Over their last 20 2nd half lines & 16-8 to the Over in conference games
MIA: 28-11 ATS covering before-the-game 3Q lines and 3-1 ATS when trailing by double-digits at the half
MIL: 6-11 ATS and 11-5 to the Under in non-conference games
MIN: 0-7 SU in division games and 6-1 to the Over in division games
NJ: 9-4 to the Over in non-conference games
NO: 11-4-1 ATS and 12-4 to the Under in non-conference games
NY: 11-5 ATS in non-conference games (including 1/11) and 15-5 ATS on the Road (including 1/11)
OKC: 5-1-1 ATS & 6-1 to the Over in division games and 16-7 to the Over in conference games
ORL: started season 9-19 ATS in the 2H, but is now 7-2 their last 9 2H lines
PHI: 15-6 ATS in 2H lines when trailing at the half (did not cover on 1/11) & 6-1 to the under in division games
PHO: 6-3 ATS in 2H lines when doen double-digits at the half
POR: 5-2 to the Over when they have rest and their opponent is on a back-ender
SAC: 2-8-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponent is on a back-ender and 1-6-1 ATS in division games
SA: started season 18-5 ATS with 2H lines, but are now 5-9 ATS their last 14 including not covering their last 4
TOR: 5-0 to the Under when they have rest and their opponent is on a back-ender
UTA: 11-3 ATS in non-conference games & 24-13-1 to the Under on 1H lines, 10-28 ATS on 1Q lines and 9-28-1 ATS on 1H lines
WAS: 9-16 ATS in conference games & 5-1 to the under when they have rest and their opponent is on a back-ender

Friday, January 7, 2011

2H play...

29-19, +$1035

New Jersey Nets -3, 2H, laying $220 to win $200 -- Tjis is a minimum 3-unit play that I will play for 2 units as the Nets shot 30.2% in the 1st half while WASH shot 59.5% in the 1H, so these percentages should gravitate towards the mean in the 2H... A discrepancy this big is a standard 2H play among teams of equal class...

GL...

Friday thoughts...

I do like a game tonight for sure, as I beging to investigate it and I have leans on others but i am short on time right now...

Just wanted to follow up on the Washington Wizards and their record-tying Under streak coming to an end last time out...

Now my chart-plays say that this streak will automatically reverse it self  and we'll have a string of Overs coming up for the Wizards...When i look at the previous 4 streaks of Under-11's ending, each and eevry instance had another Under as soon as the streak was snapped and there was no chart-play stretch to the Over in any of those instances...

So i wil lay off the Over but I am still convinced we will see a chart-play stretch of Overs here because the Wizards have gotten some key players back the same day the Under streak ended, so I believe we'll see some Overs here for the Wiz...

Back with more including a play later...

Thursday, January 6, 2011

one play tonight...

I am taking a shot with Oklahoma City...

28-19, +$935

Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Caron Butler out for the year and Nowitzki out again tonight...The Mavs rose up without Butler the last 2 times out (CLE & PORT) and won...Now you are asking them to do it again with a hungry OKC team coming to town...OKC has lost 2 straight and haven't lost 3 straight all year...I don't care too much about that fact as much as the fact that Dallas has risen up to win their last 2 games being short-handed and are now asked to do so again a third time with a step up in class against OKC...The Thunder have already lost twice to Dallas this season already so they have a double-revenge spot to boot...

GL...

Addendum to the Overs that are coming...

For some reason, I could not post onmy blog for a few hours during the games, but I did post this on the forum where I also post at on Wednesday:

Well, another plus for an Over streak coming here is that we have not had an OT game for 9 straight days coming into Wednesday, which is definitely an above-average streak...And obviously, most OT games in the NBA go Over the total...

So with Overs due, and OT games due, it's the perfect storm for a good stretch of Overs the next few days...

Looking at Wednesday, 8 out of 11 Overs came in...
 
Look for a few more days of Overs be fore things even out again...

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Overs coming...

Also, another side note before these games get into full swing tonight...

There have been a BOATLOAD of Unders in the NBA recently and I figured I' wait until I see the first signs of a turnaround for the Overs...

I believe that sign happened last night with 5 out of the 7 games going Over...And the Lakers game came close...

I have seen this a lot over the years...Scoring disappears and a rash of unders hit, and then voila, here comes a burst of Overs...

I think the Overs are coming for a few days...

Does this super-duper Under-streak end tonight?...

The CRAZY season has hit at work again as it does every year starting in January and this is the time of year when I usually stop posting...

My bets will be down for sure, but I will do my best to get some thoughts posted and I can somehow rustle up some free time, I will post bets that I make...

But I would be remiss NOT to mention this Wizards game tonight at Philly...

The Wizards are trying to become the first team in at least 20 seasons (this is as far as my database goes back to at the moment) to have 12 straight Unders...The Wizards are the 5th team in the last 20 seasons to have an 11 consecutive Unders...The last instance was 2003...This total opened at 190 and has gone up of all things...I guess people are just saying it HAS TO END, and I agree, it HAS TO END, but when?...WASH has NJ, CHAR and SAC after Philly tonight, so man, this could hit 15 before playing Minny...We have some Under teams on the slate here...

But an Under streak of this magnitude is MUCH harder to maintain than an Over streak of this magnitude...

There have been 7 Over streaks of 12 and 5 of those ended at 12...1 ended at 13 and the other one ended at 16...But with Overs, you have OT games potentially, foul-fests at the end of games...

But with long Under streaks?...

How long can you go without your team having one scorching-hot shooting night?...How long can you avoid fast-paced games or high shooting-percentage games?...

The Wizards have had 3 days off for this one...The first 2 meetings in November went over tonight's total easily in regulation and both went into OT for bonus points...Hinrich and Blatche will play tonight and Josh Howard practiced this afternoon so even though he is listed as questionable, maybe he'll play a little...

So with all of this said:

27-19, +$835

Washington/Philadelphia Over 191.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I am betting this thing Over as heck, there is enough evidence for me to see the Under-streak ending tonight for the Wizards...

GL...

Monday, January 3, 2011

Monday thoughts...

Have to brief here as it has been another crazy day at work...

I won't post a bet because of the extreme lateness here, but I like this Golden State/Orlando Over 211 and I kind of like the Sixers as one of the top (if not the best) ATS team in the league, getting 6 points at New Orleans after just smacking this team down about 3 weeks ago in Philly...We'll call these "leans" as I am not going to bet these games as I HATE betting games when feeling this rushed at work...Mia/Char would seem like a natural Under, too, especially with Wallace out for CHAR...

I will look for 2H bets, tonight, though...

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Sunday thoughts...

For people following this Blog, I shouldn't have to post it daily, you should know about some "automatic plays"...

1) NBA afternoon games 1:00 or earlier local time
2) Bowl games Over

The Bowl games were 5-1 to the Over yesterday and are hitting right around 67% for the Bowl season...

The NBA afternoon games Under are also hitting around 67% for the season and the Knicks game today was another EASY Under as I believe all Knicks games at MSG at 1:00 or earlier this year have gone Under (either 4-0 or 5-0 now)...The Clippers game today is also a 12:30 p.m. start local time so we'l lsee what happens there...

Another busy day at work today...Hopefully one day I can do this full-time and have a lot more in-depth analysis on a daily basis...But I am not sure if I will have time to post any plays today or not, we'll see...I was going to post some NFL today, but just didn't have time...Too bad...

Saturday, January 1, 2011

Another 2H play...

Oklahoma City/San Antonio Over 99, 2H, laying $110 to win $100 -- The PACE is frenetic, but 19 turnovers for the half and OKC shooting 29.3% at the half made it a somewhat low-scoring half at 85...The Pace dictates 100+ points for the 2H...OKC should cover the 2H line, too...

GL...

2H play...

Miami Heat -15, 2H, laying $110 to win $100 -- Back-end of a back-to-back for GS and Lee may ot return for the 2H for GS...The Warriors shot 64% in the 1H and only had 2 turnovers & shot 75% from 3-point land...They played a perfect 1H and led by 20 with a minute to go and then BAM, Miami finishes the half on a 6-0 run...Look for More of the same for Miami in the 2H as GS CANNOT shoot this well again in the 2H as Miami, with the #1 defense in the league in term of FG%, will clamp it down on them...Might be an Under, too...

GL...

NBA & NHL picks...

25-17, +$845

NBA

New Orleans/Washington Over 187, laying $110 to win $100 -- Washington has gone Under 10 straight and in the 19 1/2 years that I have in my NBA database, there have only been 4 teams that have hit an Under 11 and the last occurence was the Pacers in late March of 2003...No team has had an Under 12 in the last 19-plus seasons...All the Hornets trends point to the Under here, but Washington is 3-1 to the Over on back-enders and 1-0 to the Over when they and their opponent are both on a back-ender this season...Besides, the Wizards' game yesterday had the 2nd fastest PACE of the 8 games played, but turnovers and bad shooting was the reason it stayed Under...

NHL

Washington/Pittsburgh Under 5.5, +110, laying $100 to win $110 -- I don't believe any of these outdoor NHL games in recent years have gone Under...I am going from memory and may be wrong, but I believe they have all stayed Under...It is unseasonably warm in Pittsburgh today and I wonder if this will effect the condition of the ice...It may be choppy or slow, it may be fine, but the recent trends for these 2 teams point to the Under and it actually is a chart-play to the Under for these 2 teams head-to-head as the last game went Under after 8 straight Overs...

GL...

Happy New Year...

Happy New Year to everyone...

I think I may break out a NHL play in a bit and maybe some NBA...

I talked about the Overs for the Bowl games weeks ago sure enough, the Overs have dominated, with 4 more Overs today in 4 games so far...Wouldn't surprise me to see all 6 go Over...

Be back in a bit...