All picks tracked at TipsterPicks.com...
1 unit = $100
Overall: 2-0, +$200 (2 NFL picks)
NBA: 0-0, $0
Miami Heat -4, laying $106 to win $100 -- I am kinda ticked I didn't jump on this one as soon as the line came out about 2 weeks ago as I loved this one as soon as it was announced by the NBA schedule-makers...Lost some value, but am I going to make a 4-point line movement take me off a game that I am convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Heat will win?...
Nope...
I have a LOT of trends that I like, and the motivational trends are my favorites, because they win and they stand the test of time...You still have to throw out the anomalies, but they stand the test of time...The trend that I like here is:
You take the team (Miami) who is playing the opponent (Dallas) who eliminated them from the playoffs the previous season for the first time in the current regular season...
Miami has all the motivation here...My database only goes back to the 1981-82 season, but in the last 30 seasons, only once before have the 2 teams in the Finals the season before met opening day, and that was FEB 5th of 1999, ironically enough, the other strike-shortened season...I mentioned that anomalies have to be thrown out...Well, that game has to be "thrown out" because Utah, who lost to the Michael Jordan Chicago Bulls in the Finals the year before (for the 2nd straight year) hosted the Bulls on 2/5/99, opening night and the Bulls roster looked a LOT different that night at Utah than it did in the Finals the previous season as Jordan, Scottie Pippen and others blew town and the Jazz were 17-point favorites...Utah won the game (by 8), but could not cover the mammoth line...
But the last 6 instances, the Finals loser has gone 5-1 SU and 3-0-3 ATS and the Away team is 4-1 SU and 2-0-3 in those 5 games...The Finals loser is 19-11 SU and 15-12-3 ATS the past 30 seasons...The Finals loser as an Away team is 10-5-3 ATS in this spot...
LeBron's Cavaliers beat the Spurs on 1/17/08 at San Antonio as 7.5 point DOGs...
These Heat players will be stewing as they watch the Mavs get their rings and the banner gets raised...And with Tyson Chandler gone (to NY), I don't know who is going to stop the Heat if they decide to take the ball to the hoop with regularity...
The Big 3 now have a full season under their belts and they are ready and raring to go this season...They have a LOT to prove in 2011-12 and they will want to make a statement on Opening Day on National TV to make sure that everyone knows the Heat are the team to beat, for real, this time around...
GL...
No comments:
Post a Comment