Have to take this...
Washington/Indiana Over 95, 2H, laying $110 to win $100 -- The Pace for this game is way faster than it looks...The reason we have such a low 1H score is because we have 26 1H turnovers (insane) and WAS is shooting 27.8% at the half...I want to bet 3 units in the worst way here, as this play is a minmum 3-unit play, but I'll be conservative and stay with 1-unit and try and cut that 2-unit loss on the game bet to a 1-unit loss...
GL...
Friday, December 31, 2010
Friday thoughts...
Sorry for lateness, just hectic at work the last 2 days and I am still at work but like two early games...
I am mad that it got so busy last night that I missed a 2nd-half play on the Knicks as the game had just run and I missed out on a 3-unit (minimum) bet, so I am ticked at that and am wondering whether I should get a 1st-shift job or just retire and do this full-time...
Brief write-ups today as time is short...
24-15, +$1075
Washington/Indiana over 195.5, laying $220 to win $200 -- Rematch from a game 2 days ago...So we have a quick-turnaround game, where a lot of times, if it was Under the first time around, it'll be Over the 2nd time around and vice-versa...It was barely under last time and remember, I talked about the Under 8 vs. the Under 4, so now we have an Under 9 vs. and Under 5...I have no instances like this over the last 19+ years of my NBA database...Two instances of an Under 9 vs. Under 4 ad we had an Under 9 vs. Under 7...two out of 3 of those went Over...Only 16 instances of teams having a longer Under streak greater than 9 over the 18 seasons I looked at..I like the Over here...
Charlotte Hornets -4, laying $110 to win $100 -- Almost passed here as the line move just jumped from 3 to 4 after it opened at 2 (probably due to a big release on CHAR by Doc's Sports)...Wish they didn't pick Charlotte as I lost some value, but I'll still make a 1-unit bet as the Bobats are a happier team with coach Larry Brown gone as Paul Silas is just letting these guys play...Gerard Wallace is also playing his 2nd game back from a sprained ankle and I expect him to have a bigger game than his 1st game back last time out...
GL...
I am mad that it got so busy last night that I missed a 2nd-half play on the Knicks as the game had just run and I missed out on a 3-unit (minimum) bet, so I am ticked at that and am wondering whether I should get a 1st-shift job or just retire and do this full-time...
Brief write-ups today as time is short...
24-15, +$1075
Washington/Indiana over 195.5, laying $220 to win $200 -- Rematch from a game 2 days ago...So we have a quick-turnaround game, where a lot of times, if it was Under the first time around, it'll be Over the 2nd time around and vice-versa...It was barely under last time and remember, I talked about the Under 8 vs. the Under 4, so now we have an Under 9 vs. and Under 5...I have no instances like this over the last 19+ years of my NBA database...Two instances of an Under 9 vs. Under 4 ad we had an Under 9 vs. Under 7...two out of 3 of those went Over...Only 16 instances of teams having a longer Under streak greater than 9 over the 18 seasons I looked at..I like the Over here...
Charlotte Hornets -4, laying $110 to win $100 -- Almost passed here as the line move just jumped from 3 to 4 after it opened at 2 (probably due to a big release on CHAR by Doc's Sports)...Wish they didn't pick Charlotte as I lost some value, but I'll still make a 1-unit bet as the Bobats are a happier team with coach Larry Brown gone as Paul Silas is just letting these guys play...Gerard Wallace is also playing his 2nd game back from a sprained ankle and I expect him to have a bigger game than his 1st game back last time out...
GL...
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Wednesday thoughts...
3-0 last night with the 3 plays I liked and of course the one I bet was a sweat-job win while the other 2 were easy wins...Anyway, I like 2 sides and was going to bet a total, but am changing my mind and I am sure I'll regret it, we'll see...I like Minnesota and Washington tonight...yes, 2 horrible teams, but they are both at home and in favorable spots...
24-14, +$1185
Minnesota Timberwolves -2, laying $110 to win $100 -- If Minny didn't have a terrible record and if George karl wasn't such a good coach, this would be a 2-unit play or even 3...I just have a hard time betting bad teams for more than a unit...But Denver is on the back-end of a back-to-back and Minny is rested and DEN is missing Melo, Harrington and K'Mart by the looks of things...This is another quick-turnaround revenge spot game, and these have been cashing a lot here lately...DEN won the game 11 days ago with Melo and Harrngton, but they didn't have Billips and K'Mart...Minnt has the same squad back...Ok, Minny is 0-4 SU & ATS in this spot (having rest and their opponent is on a back-ender), but Denver also has not covered thier last 4 back-enders...I'll take Minny with the small number at Home in a revenge spot catching Denver on a back-ender tonight...
Was going to bet this Pacers/Wizards game Over as we have a rare Under 4 vs. an Under 8 here...WAS has 8 straight Unders and Indy has 4 straight coming into this one...I looked in my NBA database (going back to the 1991-92 season and find 8 instances for this occurence and the Over is 5-3 in this spot with one of the games missing the Over by a bucket and the other 2 games missing the Over by 7 points in each case...The only reason I am not betting it though is because EVERYTHING else points to the Under here...Indy is 6-0 to the under in back-enders this season and WAS is 4-1 to the under when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...I do like WAS to win this one and cover that small number as they are 4-1 ATS in this spot this sason...
GL...
24-14, +$1185
Minnesota Timberwolves -2, laying $110 to win $100 -- If Minny didn't have a terrible record and if George karl wasn't such a good coach, this would be a 2-unit play or even 3...I just have a hard time betting bad teams for more than a unit...But Denver is on the back-end of a back-to-back and Minny is rested and DEN is missing Melo, Harrington and K'Mart by the looks of things...This is another quick-turnaround revenge spot game, and these have been cashing a lot here lately...DEN won the game 11 days ago with Melo and Harrngton, but they didn't have Billips and K'Mart...Minnt has the same squad back...Ok, Minny is 0-4 SU & ATS in this spot (having rest and their opponent is on a back-ender), but Denver also has not covered thier last 4 back-enders...I'll take Minny with the small number at Home in a revenge spot catching Denver on a back-ender tonight...
Was going to bet this Pacers/Wizards game Over as we have a rare Under 4 vs. an Under 8 here...WAS has 8 straight Unders and Indy has 4 straight coming into this one...I looked in my NBA database (going back to the 1991-92 season and find 8 instances for this occurence and the Over is 5-3 in this spot with one of the games missing the Over by a bucket and the other 2 games missing the Over by 7 points in each case...The only reason I am not betting it though is because EVERYTHING else points to the Under here...Indy is 6-0 to the under in back-enders this season and WAS is 4-1 to the under when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...I do like WAS to win this one and cover that small number as they are 4-1 ATS in this spot this sason...
GL...
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Tuesday thoughts...
Super-busy here at work the last 2 days...
Wanted to touch briefly on why I laid off the Under on Sunday...The total moved 3.5 points...It had moved 3 when I was ready to bet it, and to me, this was too much value to lose...At 211, I would have bet it Under (and it would have pushed)...Of course, I didn't know that before the game...But I felt that line was already about as low as it could go for me to feel comfortable going with the Under, an in fact, I posted Saturday night (late) that I expected the foolish public to bet that total up another point or 2...Never happened...The "smart" money pounded the under and lost their asses at 207.5, 208, etc., while I laid off...Had the public gotten involved heavily and it went to 212 or 213, I would have bet it under and won...
Anyway, I mention this simply as something to store away for the future in case people tell you that "a total moving 2 or 3 points either way doesn't matter"...It DOES matter...I have bet many totals on the overnight line (to beat the line movement) in the past and won where I had I waited till the line moved, I would have lost...Yet another example on Sunday where 3 points made the difference between a push and a loss...
I like 3 games tonight, but I am only going to bet one...
I like ORL, TOR and NY...
I am betting the Knicks:
23-14, +1085
New York Knicks +8.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Sure, we all know how Miami hammered the Knicks a little over a week ago at MSG...But for people who follow me, you certainly know that I love these quick-turnaround revenge spots...This is close enough to count as another one for me...The Heat are certainly flying high now, especially after that dismantling of the Lake-Show on Christmas...But a 5-10 ATS Home record doesn't inspire confidence for me and this is a big-time let-down spot for Miami...Besides, with the way the Knicks are playing right now, I'll take them with 8.5 against anybody, anywhere...They are the team with the greater motivational spot here, as they have the revenge, while Miami just trounced them about 11 days ago, so what do they have to prove here?...The motivational edge is always THE edge that I look for when capping any game...New York has it, and I have 8.5 points of insurance in my back pocket...
GL...
Wanted to touch briefly on why I laid off the Under on Sunday...The total moved 3.5 points...It had moved 3 when I was ready to bet it, and to me, this was too much value to lose...At 211, I would have bet it Under (and it would have pushed)...Of course, I didn't know that before the game...But I felt that line was already about as low as it could go for me to feel comfortable going with the Under, an in fact, I posted Saturday night (late) that I expected the foolish public to bet that total up another point or 2...Never happened...The "smart" money pounded the under and lost their asses at 207.5, 208, etc., while I laid off...Had the public gotten involved heavily and it went to 212 or 213, I would have bet it under and won...
Anyway, I mention this simply as something to store away for the future in case people tell you that "a total moving 2 or 3 points either way doesn't matter"...It DOES matter...I have bet many totals on the overnight line (to beat the line movement) in the past and won where I had I waited till the line moved, I would have lost...Yet another example on Sunday where 3 points made the difference between a push and a loss...
I like 3 games tonight, but I am only going to bet one...
I like ORL, TOR and NY...
I am betting the Knicks:
23-14, +1085
New York Knicks +8.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Sure, we all know how Miami hammered the Knicks a little over a week ago at MSG...But for people who follow me, you certainly know that I love these quick-turnaround revenge spots...This is close enough to count as another one for me...The Heat are certainly flying high now, especially after that dismantling of the Lake-Show on Christmas...But a 5-10 ATS Home record doesn't inspire confidence for me and this is a big-time let-down spot for Miami...Besides, with the way the Knicks are playing right now, I'll take them with 8.5 against anybody, anywhere...They are the team with the greater motivational spot here, as they have the revenge, while Miami just trounced them about 11 days ago, so what do they have to prove here?...The motivational edge is always THE edge that I look for when capping any game...New York has it, and I have 8.5 points of insurance in my back pocket...
GL...
Monday, December 27, 2010
2H play...
23-13, +1195
Oklahoma City Thuunder -3.5, 2H laying $110 to win $100 -- Dirk Nowitzki injured in 1H and is doubtful to return and OKC made a run with him out...I had a lean to OKC to begin with, so I am taking them on the 2H line...
GL...
Oklahoma City Thuunder -3.5, 2H laying $110 to win $100 -- Dirk Nowitzki injured in 1H and is doubtful to return and OKC made a run with him out...I had a lean to OKC to begin with, so I am taking them on the 2H line...
GL...
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Bowl game pick, must be an Over...
22-13, +$1095
NCAAF
Florida International/Toledo Over 57.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- When you look at the scores of the games from these two teams all season long, there are very few games where they or their opponet didn't get 30+...And with an indoor game tonight, well, I guess I can't help myself as I will grab the Over...Bowl games 5-2 to the Over on the season so far...
GL...
NCAAF
Florida International/Toledo Over 57.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- When you look at the scores of the games from these two teams all season long, there are very few games where they or their opponet didn't get 30+...And with an indoor game tonight, well, I guess I can't help myself as I will grab the Over...Bowl games 5-2 to the Over on the season so far...
GL...
No play...
Ok, after all of that, I am not playing either due to the line move against me as the total is down to 208...I hate losing value and I lost 3 points as I could have had this at 211 last night and didn't pull the trigger, so I will pass on both, but still like both of those a little...I also lean to the Clippers as PHOE is still regrouping after the trade and we saw how it took ORL 2 games before they got a win after the trade, so it may take PHOE another game before they get some rhythm with this group...
Sunday thoughts...
Alright, am I getting too fancy here?...
I want to play this Phoenix/LA Clippers game Under in the worst way, to stay in line with the NBA Afternoon Game Unders trend I talked about yesterday...This trend is one that I have simplified, stating that any "NBA game starting at or before 1:05 p.m. (local time at the arena where the contest is being played), you take Under"...13-5 to the Under so far this season in regulation time, although an OT game killed one of the Unders and puts the trend officially at 12-6 to the Under...
On the surface, this total is too low...These 2 teams have FLOWN Over 211 head-to-head for the most part in each of their last 8 meetings and have gone Over 8 of their last 9 head-to-head meetings...Take it one step further, these 2 teams have averaged 232 PPG in their last 7 head-to-head meetings...And after all, we are talking about Phoenix here...The Suns are 2nd in the league in scoring and 2nd in the league in points allowed (the latter is BAD, oh-by-the-way), as Suns' games average a ridiculous 217 points per game...
Throw in the fact that the Clippers are 3rd worst in the league in 3-point % allowed while PHOE is 10th best in the league in 3-point shooting % (which is pretty good considering how many they fire up), and this game has Over written all over it...
So why only 211 when these 2 teams are averaging 232 the last 7 meetings against each other, including a 224 earlier this season?...
Well, it doesn't take much homework to see that the Clippers have had 7 straight Home Unders and 9 of their last 10 home games have gone Under...This includes their last 2 games vs. Houston (5th in the league in PPG) and Minnesota (8th in PPG)...They also had home Unders vs. the Lakers (6th in PPG) on 12/8 and San Antonio (4th in PPG) on 12/1...The Lakers game produced a 173 and the Spurs' game produced a 175...So these are 4 LEGIT scoring teams all going Under at Staples vs. the Clips...
So I pretty much have to take this game Under...
Although the "getting fancy" part of this play is that I am thinking about a hedge for 1/2 a unit on the 1Q Over...
Why?...
The Clips have gone Over in the 1Q in their last 3 Home games and the last 2 flew Over (60 and 65), and I expect this 1Q line to be about 53 or 53.5 if this line stays at 211...
I think the sharps may bet this total down as I see early action on the Under, but I won't bet the Under now because I think the public will bet this game Over based on the head-to-head info and move the total up on Sunday...
So the plan is a $100 bet on the game total Under with a $50 "hedge" bet to the 1Q Over because I figure if the 1Q doesn't go Over, then the game won't go Over, so I still win...If the 1Q flies Over and the game goes Over, I only lose 1/2 a unit...If the the 1Q goes Over and the game stays Under (like the last 3 Clippers home games) then I win both...
You with me?...
Just another day in the mind of brewers7, NBA handicapper...
Check back in the afternoon for the official plays...
I want to play this Phoenix/LA Clippers game Under in the worst way, to stay in line with the NBA Afternoon Game Unders trend I talked about yesterday...This trend is one that I have simplified, stating that any "NBA game starting at or before 1:05 p.m. (local time at the arena where the contest is being played), you take Under"...13-5 to the Under so far this season in regulation time, although an OT game killed one of the Unders and puts the trend officially at 12-6 to the Under...
On the surface, this total is too low...These 2 teams have FLOWN Over 211 head-to-head for the most part in each of their last 8 meetings and have gone Over 8 of their last 9 head-to-head meetings...Take it one step further, these 2 teams have averaged 232 PPG in their last 7 head-to-head meetings...And after all, we are talking about Phoenix here...The Suns are 2nd in the league in scoring and 2nd in the league in points allowed (the latter is BAD, oh-by-the-way), as Suns' games average a ridiculous 217 points per game...
Throw in the fact that the Clippers are 3rd worst in the league in 3-point % allowed while PHOE is 10th best in the league in 3-point shooting % (which is pretty good considering how many they fire up), and this game has Over written all over it...
So why only 211 when these 2 teams are averaging 232 the last 7 meetings against each other, including a 224 earlier this season?...
Well, it doesn't take much homework to see that the Clippers have had 7 straight Home Unders and 9 of their last 10 home games have gone Under...This includes their last 2 games vs. Houston (5th in the league in PPG) and Minnesota (8th in PPG)...They also had home Unders vs. the Lakers (6th in PPG) on 12/8 and San Antonio (4th in PPG) on 12/1...The Lakers game produced a 173 and the Spurs' game produced a 175...So these are 4 LEGIT scoring teams all going Under at Staples vs. the Clips...
So I pretty much have to take this game Under...
Although the "getting fancy" part of this play is that I am thinking about a hedge for 1/2 a unit on the 1Q Over...
Why?...
The Clips have gone Over in the 1Q in their last 3 Home games and the last 2 flew Over (60 and 65), and I expect this 1Q line to be about 53 or 53.5 if this line stays at 211...
I think the sharps may bet this total down as I see early action on the Under, but I won't bet the Under now because I think the public will bet this game Over based on the head-to-head info and move the total up on Sunday...
So the plan is a $100 bet on the game total Under with a $50 "hedge" bet to the 1Q Over because I figure if the 1Q doesn't go Over, then the game won't go Over, so I still win...If the 1Q flies Over and the game goes Over, I only lose 1/2 a unit...If the the 1Q goes Over and the game stays Under (like the last 3 Clippers home games) then I win both...
You with me?...
Just another day in the mind of brewers7, NBA handicapper...
Check back in the afternoon for the official plays...
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Ok, I'll take Golden State...
21-13, +$995
Golden State Warriors -3, laying $110 to win $100 -- Taking GS for all the reasons I mentioned in the earlier post...Marcus Camby is supposed to play for Portland (according to the GS pre-game show), so you can get this -3 at plus-juice at Pinny or -105 at several other shops, but with Curry back, the Warriors have more scoring options and suddenly a little scoring depth off the bench, and besides, I really like these quick-turnaround revenge spots...I was going to pass with a win already in the books today, but many good handicappers have told me over the years to increase (not reduce) the number of plays you make when you are hot, and I feel like I have snapped a cold streak here the last few days...
GL...
Golden State Warriors -3, laying $110 to win $100 -- Taking GS for all the reasons I mentioned in the earlier post...Marcus Camby is supposed to play for Portland (according to the GS pre-game show), so you can get this -3 at plus-juice at Pinny or -105 at several other shops, but with Curry back, the Warriors have more scoring options and suddenly a little scoring depth off the bench, and besides, I really like these quick-turnaround revenge spots...I was going to pass with a win already in the books today, but many good handicappers have told me over the years to increase (not reduce) the number of plays you make when you are hot, and I feel like I have snapped a cold streak here the last few days...
GL...
Additional Saturday/Sunday thoughts...
I am thinking about a Golden State play tonight...
Stephen Curry returns and I have always liked these quick-turnaround revenge spots as Portland just beat the Warriors by a point at PORT a week ago as GS missed some free throws down the stretch to lose this one 96-95...PORT is banged up and GS hasn't won 2 in a row in over 6 weeks (wins on 11/8 and 11/10)...Curry's importance to this team cannot be understated...He sprained an ankle late in the preseason (final preseason game I believe) and hasn't been 100% all season as he has sprained it 3 times since...
I guess I have about 30 minutes to decide...
I started to post last night about "NBA afternoon Unders", whereby, games that start at 1:00 p.m. (local time of the arena game is being played at) or earlier go Under...I heard about this "urban legend" or trend many years ago, but it doesn't seem to be an urban legend at all as these Unders have come in fairly regularly it seems as I know they started out strong in each of the last few seasons and have started out strong again this year...
How strong?
How about 12-6 to the Under this season after this CHI/NY Under today...
Not bad, eh?...
And one of those "Overs" was an Under in regulation time until Overtime killed it, so we are looking at 13-5 to the Under in regulation time...
I should have posted this last night, but it was after 5:00 in the morning and I was tired...I am posting it tonight because there is another game on Sunday that fits the bill going at Noon PST, Phoenix at the LA Clippers...
Stephen Curry returns and I have always liked these quick-turnaround revenge spots as Portland just beat the Warriors by a point at PORT a week ago as GS missed some free throws down the stretch to lose this one 96-95...PORT is banged up and GS hasn't won 2 in a row in over 6 weeks (wins on 11/8 and 11/10)...Curry's importance to this team cannot be understated...He sprained an ankle late in the preseason (final preseason game I believe) and hasn't been 100% all season as he has sprained it 3 times since...
I guess I have about 30 minutes to decide...
I started to post last night about "NBA afternoon Unders", whereby, games that start at 1:00 p.m. (local time of the arena game is being played at) or earlier go Under...I heard about this "urban legend" or trend many years ago, but it doesn't seem to be an urban legend at all as these Unders have come in fairly regularly it seems as I know they started out strong in each of the last few seasons and have started out strong again this year...
How strong?
How about 12-6 to the Under this season after this CHI/NY Under today...
Not bad, eh?...
And one of those "Overs" was an Under in regulation time until Overtime killed it, so we are looking at 13-5 to the Under in regulation time...
I should have posted this last night, but it was after 5:00 in the morning and I was tired...I am posting it tonight because there is another game on Sunday that fits the bill going at Noon PST, Phoenix at the LA Clippers...
Christmas presents...
Candy or Coal?...
We'll see, but 5 straight easy wins leading up to Christmas...
20-13, +$895
Orlando Magic -2.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- The Celtics have won 14 straight, but how long can this go without Rondo?...We do have a good trend in play here, too, which is the Revenge factor for Orlando as they are playing the team that eliminated them from the playoffs for the first time this season...That trend has done well the past few years...Orlando may be about to hit their stride now after losing 8 of 9 now that they have played 3 games with their new personnel...They blew out the Spurs on Thursday and I expect the Magic to go on a run...I definitely like the low number at home here as I expect ORL to win this one...
GL...
We'll see, but 5 straight easy wins leading up to Christmas...
20-13, +$895
Orlando Magic -2.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- The Celtics have won 14 straight, but how long can this go without Rondo?...We do have a good trend in play here, too, which is the Revenge factor for Orlando as they are playing the team that eliminated them from the playoffs for the first time this season...That trend has done well the past few years...Orlando may be about to hit their stride now after losing 8 of 9 now that they have played 3 games with their new personnel...They blew out the Spurs on Thursday and I expect the Magic to go on a run...I definitely like the low number at home here as I expect ORL to win this one...
GL...
Friday, December 24, 2010
Friday's thoughts...
I am going to do it...
Take tonight's Bowl Game Over...
Overall posting record (since SEPT): 19-13, +$775
NCAAF:
Tulsa/Hawaii Over 74, laying $110 to win $100 -- I honestly don't see how either team can slow down the other...Hawaii totals hit 80 points or more their last 2 games and Tulsa had a 106 in their last outing...I really don't see 80 points scored as a problem tonight...Bowl Games are 4-2 to the Over this season and Overs have not been a problem in the past in Hawaii...With temperatures in the mid 70s in Hawaii (30% chance of showers) with very little wind, conditions will not hinder the ability for these teams to light up the scoreboard...
GL...
Take tonight's Bowl Game Over...
Overall posting record (since SEPT): 19-13, +$775
NCAAF:
Tulsa/Hawaii Over 74, laying $110 to win $100 -- I honestly don't see how either team can slow down the other...Hawaii totals hit 80 points or more their last 2 games and Tulsa had a 106 in their last outing...I really don't see 80 points scored as a problem tonight...Bowl Games are 4-2 to the Over this season and Overs have not been a problem in the past in Hawaii...With temperatures in the mid 70s in Hawaii (30% chance of showers) with very little wind, conditions will not hinder the ability for these teams to light up the scoreboard...
GL...
Thursday, December 23, 2010
Thursday's thoughts...
Good day on Wednesday as I went back to basic NBA handicapping principles and went 2-0 with 2 pretty easy wins as those Dogs were covering the spreads the entire 48 minutes of the game as neither FAV was covering the chalk at any point during the game...
I am also posting at the forum with The RainMaker starting yesterday (link here: http://sportsgambling.freegametalk.com/), so all plays will also be time-stamped there...
Also, as I update my documented record for the year, I will have to include my NFL plays, all made at ThinkDog (http://sportsbetting.formyjob.net/index.htm?sid=9423fc4e2dcffea6f4e0edaff40331cf) ...I am 8-2, +$1420 on the year with NFL plays and who knows, I may have another play or 2 for this season...
So to get my NFL and NBA records up-to-date for the year, we have:
NFL -- 8-2, +$1420 (ThinkDog)
NBA -- 6-6, -$410 (TheRX)
NBA -- 3-5, -$425 (Blog)
All documented...Only one 3-unit bet the whole season (NFL) and everything else has been 1, 1.5 or 2-unit bets...I had a month off before the Blog started in which I did well, but nothing is posted, so there is zero documentation, so that month is irrelevant...I am hoping that my 2-0 night yesterday turns the corner from a week-long slump...
So, 17-13, +$575, up to the minute...
This is the time of the year I usually start to heat up in the NBA...But since I came off a little cold-spell, I will keep my next few bets at 1-unit and then I may start doing 2-unit plays again...
Tonight I have 2...
Orlando Magic -2, laying $110 to win $100 &
San Antonio/Orlando Over 198, laying $110 to win $100 -- All you have to do is read the Orlando Sentinel newspaper (online) and see that this Orlando team wants to quicken the PACE with their new personnel...They are ranked 19th in the league in PACE and they feel they can change that and guys like J-Rich, Turkolu & Arenas can get them out on the break much better than Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter did...They went Over in their last game...SA has been an offensive juggernaut this season as they are 4th in the league in PPG...Over me, here as I'd be shocked not to see this hit 200 points...Besides, the Spurs are 3-1 to the over in back-enders this season...And as far as the side goes, the Spurs just cannot keep this winning pace up...I knew ORL would need time to mesh after this trade and I gave them 2 games to try and figure it out as I stayed completely away from them, but now, they have had practice time, Stan Van Gundy has the starting lineup in place (Arenas is coming off the bench) and this team should be ready to rock and roll...I just hope I am not one game too soon here, but I am taking a hot because the Spurs are on a back-ender and was pushed by Denver to the limit the last night...I like ORL to snap their 4-game losing streak (8 losses in 9) and get the win tonight...
GL...
I am also posting at the forum with The RainMaker starting yesterday (link here: http://sportsgambling.freegametalk.com/), so all plays will also be time-stamped there...
Also, as I update my documented record for the year, I will have to include my NFL plays, all made at ThinkDog (http://sportsbetting.formyjob.net/index.htm?sid=9423fc4e2dcffea6f4e0edaff40331cf) ...I am 8-2, +$1420 on the year with NFL plays and who knows, I may have another play or 2 for this season...
So to get my NFL and NBA records up-to-date for the year, we have:
NFL -- 8-2, +$1420 (ThinkDog)
NBA -- 6-6, -$410 (TheRX)
NBA -- 3-5, -$425 (Blog)
All documented...Only one 3-unit bet the whole season (NFL) and everything else has been 1, 1.5 or 2-unit bets...I had a month off before the Blog started in which I did well, but nothing is posted, so there is zero documentation, so that month is irrelevant...I am hoping that my 2-0 night yesterday turns the corner from a week-long slump...
So, 17-13, +$575, up to the minute...
This is the time of the year I usually start to heat up in the NBA...But since I came off a little cold-spell, I will keep my next few bets at 1-unit and then I may start doing 2-unit plays again...
Tonight I have 2...
Orlando Magic -2, laying $110 to win $100 &
San Antonio/Orlando Over 198, laying $110 to win $100 -- All you have to do is read the Orlando Sentinel newspaper (online) and see that this Orlando team wants to quicken the PACE with their new personnel...They are ranked 19th in the league in PACE and they feel they can change that and guys like J-Rich, Turkolu & Arenas can get them out on the break much better than Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter did...They went Over in their last game...SA has been an offensive juggernaut this season as they are 4th in the league in PPG...Over me, here as I'd be shocked not to see this hit 200 points...Besides, the Spurs are 3-1 to the over in back-enders this season...And as far as the side goes, the Spurs just cannot keep this winning pace up...I knew ORL would need time to mesh after this trade and I gave them 2 games to try and figure it out as I stayed completely away from them, but now, they have had practice time, Stan Van Gundy has the starting lineup in place (Arenas is coming off the bench) and this team should be ready to rock and roll...I just hope I am not one game too soon here, but I am taking a hot because the Spurs are on a back-ender and was pushed by Denver to the limit the last night...I like ORL to snap their 4-game losing streak (8 losses in 9) and get the win tonight...
GL...
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Wednesday thoughts...
Bowl games 4-0 to the Over on the season...No surprise...I talked about this before...Overs should be solid all Bowl season...
I am going to post my overall NBA record for the season shortly, but I have to mention a friend of mine and partner at a site we are at (http://www.sportsgambling.cc/) ...
He is The RainMaker and although he is a little bit of an unknown, I have known him for 6 years and the guy is a monster handicapper...He handicaps 11 leagues over several major sports...He does NCAA foots & hoops, NHL, MLB, NFL, NBA, Soccer and Tennis...And he does them all well...He has documented picks for over a year in the Picks Centre at that site and he has a winning record and positive units won in every sport and he also has a winning record and positive units in every month since the Picks Centre opened...He is a handicapping maniac...And when he gets hot, wow, look out as he goes on incredible runs...
I have known him for 6 years and yes, he, like everyone has losing streaks, but the winning streaks far outweight the losing streaks and his documented record over the last 14 months that speaks for itself...
His personal page is http://www.sportsgambling.cc/TheRainMaker_page.shtml and he is also making picks on the forum associated with that site here and that URL is http://sportsgambling.freegametalk.com/ ...
While I regroup from a little cold-spell, you really need to be following this guy as he is going to be starting a new segment with DonBest.com called "Thursday Thunder with The RainMaker" every week...And oh-by-the-way, The RainMaker is 9-4-1 (69.2%) with his video picks on DonBest...You'd be smart to check him out on the website and check out his video segments on http://tv.donbest.com/.
Now for me...
My NBA record on therx forum was 6-6, -$410 before I got the bug bites and went to the ER and then took some time off from posting as it has been busy at work...Blog record has been horrific to start at 1-5, -$625, but I had a throw-away game and a tough 2H loss in there...If I started the blog one week earlier, I would have had my only hot streak of the year on record, but hey, that is the breaks as this is a marathon and not a sprint and I have been down 10 units before early in the season in the past before my main profitable months of January through mid-March hits, then the end of the season means reduced bet amounts and then the playoffs go and I have had a lot of success in the postseason with the exception of a few seasons (last year was breakeven at best)...
Now to tonight as it is getting late, but now that the "official" record-keeping is done, I am going to go back to my roots and start taking some Dogs, which has been my trademark over the years...
I am reducing my bet to 1 unit until I get hot with the exception of some 2H bets...
Philadelphia 76ers +9, laying $110 to win $100 -- Same situation I mistakenly bet the other way last night with the Lakers...So I am taking the 76ers tonight as they are in a similar spot tonight...Boston has the look-ahead game to ORL on Christmas and the Celtics have a nice winning streak going and the 76ers are coming off an embarrassing loss the night before (45-point loss)...I watched the Bucks play and get hammered by PORT 2 nights ago and mistakenly thought they had no shot vs. LAL and they blew the Lakers out...Sixers looked horrible last night, so how can they stay with Boston tonight??...Take Philly...
Denver Nuggets +8, laying $110 to win $100 -- K'Mart supposed to be back but that doesn't mean much to me...the away team has won 5 straight in this series and the Nuggets have a quick-turnaround revenge spot for a loss from just last THUR on 12/16 at Home by one game...I like these quick-turnaround revenge spots and will gladly take the 8 points with the Nuggets tonight as SA cannot keep up this 24-3 pace forever...
GL...
I am going to post my overall NBA record for the season shortly, but I have to mention a friend of mine and partner at a site we are at (http://www.sportsgambling.cc/) ...
He is The RainMaker and although he is a little bit of an unknown, I have known him for 6 years and the guy is a monster handicapper...He handicaps 11 leagues over several major sports...He does NCAA foots & hoops, NHL, MLB, NFL, NBA, Soccer and Tennis...And he does them all well...He has documented picks for over a year in the Picks Centre at that site and he has a winning record and positive units won in every sport and he also has a winning record and positive units in every month since the Picks Centre opened...He is a handicapping maniac...And when he gets hot, wow, look out as he goes on incredible runs...
I have known him for 6 years and yes, he, like everyone has losing streaks, but the winning streaks far outweight the losing streaks and his documented record over the last 14 months that speaks for itself...
His personal page is http://www.sportsgambling.cc/TheRainMaker_page.shtml and he is also making picks on the forum associated with that site here and that URL is http://sportsgambling.freegametalk.com/ ...
While I regroup from a little cold-spell, you really need to be following this guy as he is going to be starting a new segment with DonBest.com called "Thursday Thunder with The RainMaker" every week...And oh-by-the-way, The RainMaker is 9-4-1 (69.2%) with his video picks on DonBest...You'd be smart to check him out on the website and check out his video segments on http://tv.donbest.com/.
Now for me...
My NBA record on therx forum was 6-6, -$410 before I got the bug bites and went to the ER and then took some time off from posting as it has been busy at work...Blog record has been horrific to start at 1-5, -$625, but I had a throw-away game and a tough 2H loss in there...If I started the blog one week earlier, I would have had my only hot streak of the year on record, but hey, that is the breaks as this is a marathon and not a sprint and I have been down 10 units before early in the season in the past before my main profitable months of January through mid-March hits, then the end of the season means reduced bet amounts and then the playoffs go and I have had a lot of success in the postseason with the exception of a few seasons (last year was breakeven at best)...
Now to tonight as it is getting late, but now that the "official" record-keeping is done, I am going to go back to my roots and start taking some Dogs, which has been my trademark over the years...
I am reducing my bet to 1 unit until I get hot with the exception of some 2H bets...
Philadelphia 76ers +9, laying $110 to win $100 -- Same situation I mistakenly bet the other way last night with the Lakers...So I am taking the 76ers tonight as they are in a similar spot tonight...Boston has the look-ahead game to ORL on Christmas and the Celtics have a nice winning streak going and the 76ers are coming off an embarrassing loss the night before (45-point loss)...I watched the Bucks play and get hammered by PORT 2 nights ago and mistakenly thought they had no shot vs. LAL and they blew the Lakers out...Sixers looked horrible last night, so how can they stay with Boston tonight??...Take Philly...
Denver Nuggets +8, laying $110 to win $100 -- K'Mart supposed to be back but that doesn't mean much to me...the away team has won 5 straight in this series and the Nuggets have a quick-turnaround revenge spot for a loss from just last THUR on 12/16 at Home by one game...I like these quick-turnaround revenge spots and will gladly take the 8 points with the Nuggets tonight as SA cannot keep up this 24-3 pace forever...
GL...
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Tuesday's thoughts...
Too busy yesterday at work to even cap the games...
Tough loss Sunday on the 2H line after a throw-away game on Saturday where, had I been thinking, I probably could have bet the 76ers on the moneyline to hope to get that some of that loss back after ORL traded all those players to wreck an overnight bet...
Today:
Los Angeles Lakers -12, laying $165 to win $150 -- Sure, this is a bit of a "square" play, but I really don't care...65% on the Lakers is actually a bit below average for the Lake-Show at home, but with Milwaukee missing Jennings, Delfino and probably Maggette, they are missing scoring punch and quite frankly, they are just missing too much as I watched some of that PORT game last night and even without Brandon Roy, the Blazers had a cakewalk...And yes, I know all about a team returning home their first game after a long road trip and being flat in this spot...A flat Lakers team can cover this 12...If they are playing well tonight, LAL wins this by 20+...
GL...
Tough loss Sunday on the 2H line after a throw-away game on Saturday where, had I been thinking, I probably could have bet the 76ers on the moneyline to hope to get that some of that loss back after ORL traded all those players to wreck an overnight bet...
Today:
Los Angeles Lakers -12, laying $165 to win $150 -- Sure, this is a bit of a "square" play, but I really don't care...65% on the Lakers is actually a bit below average for the Lake-Show at home, but with Milwaukee missing Jennings, Delfino and probably Maggette, they are missing scoring punch and quite frankly, they are just missing too much as I watched some of that PORT game last night and even without Brandon Roy, the Blazers had a cakewalk...And yes, I know all about a team returning home their first game after a long road trip and being flat in this spot...A flat Lakers team can cover this 12...If they are playing well tonight, LAL wins this by 20+...
GL...
Sunday, December 19, 2010
2nd half bet...
Oklahoma City -8.5, laying $220 to win $200, 2H -- Phoenix is shooting 55% at the half and they are short-handed, while Oklahoma is shooting 28%...This is a minimum 2-unit play and I will play it for the minimum...
Sunday thoughts...
Will look at the rest of the NBA board later, but I just wanted to mention now that it is Bowl season that we could have a rash of Overs this year...
The default play for all Bowl games is the Underdog and the Over...I have won Bowl contests with this simple formula...Some years, the FAVs will come in ver 50% of the time, but most years, the Dogs are barking and it seems like every year, the Overs hit at over 50%...
On Saturday, all 3 Overs hit...
No surprise to me, especially this year, when there seemed to be an inordinate number of points scored in college football...I don't follow college football closely, but I see enough scores every week and to me, this year more than any other year, there seemed to be a lot of crazy-go-nuts high-scoring games and I believe this will carry Over into Bowl season unless Vegas over-adjusts the lines upwards significantly...
Did someone say Over?...
The default play for all Bowl games is the Underdog and the Over...I have won Bowl contests with this simple formula...Some years, the FAVs will come in ver 50% of the time, but most years, the Dogs are barking and it seems like every year, the Overs hit at over 50%...
On Saturday, all 3 Overs hit...
No surprise to me, especially this year, when there seemed to be an inordinate number of points scored in college football...I don't follow college football closely, but I see enough scores every week and to me, this year more than any other year, there seemed to be a lot of crazy-go-nuts high-scoring games and I believe this will carry Over into Bowl season unless Vegas over-adjusts the lines upwards significantly...
Did someone say Over?...
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Orlando trades...
Is this an omen of bad things to come this season?...This Orlando pick is basically "play of the week" caliber for me and now, they trade away 2 starters and a quality back-up center today to blow this pick out of the water...The Magic will be playing short-handed, which isn't necessarily a bad thing as they have 3 days rest and the 76ers are on a back-ender and I still like ORL a bit -6.5...ORL starters will have to play extended minutes, but this really is not an issue as they have off tomorrow so I think they can cover the 6.5, but 9 is pushing it...But hey, it's a long season and if I have to throw away 2 units, no biggie...I am just disappointed I didn't make the Memphis play 4 or 5 units because that was pretty damn close to a maximum unit play for me (5 units)...
As far as the rest of the board goes, nothing really jumping out although I like the NY/Cle game Over the total a bit...I like Phi/Orl Under a little, too, as the pace should slow down here and Philly is 6-2 to the under on back-enders this season...I'll be looking for 2H opportunities again tonight...
As far as the rest of the board goes, nothing really jumping out although I like the NY/Cle game Over the total a bit...I like Phi/Orl Under a little, too, as the pace should slow down here and Philly is 6-2 to the under on back-enders this season...I'll be looking for 2H opportunities again tonight...
Saturday thoughts...
12/18
1-2, -$20
I am going to have to bet this one as I think there is a chance the line may move to double-digits:
Orlando Magic -9.5, laying $220 to win $200 -- I have never been a heavy chalk-layer in my 25+ years of NBA handicapping as anyone who knows me knows I love taking Dogs, but Orlando has 3 days rest to regroup from a beat-down at Denver and this "elite" team has lost 5 of their last 6 games...They have covered 6 straight vs. Philly head-to-head and the lowest margin of victory was 13 points in those 6 games...Philly is on the back-end of a back-to-back here and ORL should be out for blood...Also a big-time "chart-play" for me as Philly's 10-game Cover streak ended last night, so this streak should immediately start to reverse itself...
GL...
May have more as the day progresses, we'll see...
1-2, -$20
I am going to have to bet this one as I think there is a chance the line may move to double-digits:
Orlando Magic -9.5, laying $220 to win $200 -- I have never been a heavy chalk-layer in my 25+ years of NBA handicapping as anyone who knows me knows I love taking Dogs, but Orlando has 3 days rest to regroup from a beat-down at Denver and this "elite" team has lost 5 of their last 6 games...They have covered 6 straight vs. Philly head-to-head and the lowest margin of victory was 13 points in those 6 games...Philly is on the back-end of a back-to-back here and ORL should be out for blood...Also a big-time "chart-play" for me as Philly's 10-game Cover streak ended last night, so this streak should immediately start to reverse itself...
GL...
May have more as the day progresses, we'll see...
Friday, December 17, 2010
First 2nd-half play on the blog...
I am taking:
Memphis Grizzlies -4, 2H, laying $220 to win $200 -- This is at minimum, a 2-unit play, and I'll play it at the minimum as Memphis has shot just 29% from the field in the 1st half, while Houston is shooting 56.4% from the field and I expect those numbers to gravitate back to the mean a bit which means Memphis should cover this number fairly easily...We'll see...
GL...
Memphis Grizzlies -4, 2H, laying $220 to win $200 -- This is at minimum, a 2-unit play, and I'll play it at the minimum as Memphis has shot just 29% from the field in the 1st half, while Houston is shooting 56.4% from the field and I expect those numbers to gravitate back to the mean a bit which means Memphis should cover this number fairly easily...We'll see...
GL...
Friday thoughts...
12/17
Tough loss last night, but there will be plenty of tough losses as the season progresses...This is the NBA...
0-1, -$110
Tonight, short on time, but I do have a bet for 8:00 EST....I already played the Nets at 7 but wasn't able to post it in time, but I am taking:
Utah Jazz -1, laying $110 to win $100 -- The Jazz have owned this series recently, winning and covering 8 of the last 9...The Hornets have been struggling mightily over the last several weeks..They barely eeked out a win at home last time out vs. Sacramento, as they were down 16 at the half before coming back to win by 3...Utah is 7-3 on the Road, which to me, cancels out the Hornets 10-3 Home record...
GL...
Other notes:
The reason I liked NJ is because of their 6-0 ATS record on the back-end of back-to-backs this season...The heat have a c"chart-play" against them tonight as they had covered 8 straight before not covering last time out vs. Cleveland, so a "chart-play" states that as soon as a streak comes to an end, it will reverse itself immediately and have a streak going the other way and the longer the streak, the longer the reversal streak will be...I also like the Lakers to end the Sixers C10 streak as Philly is getting up in rarified air with this C10 of theirs...I have a database that goes back 19+ years to the 1991-92 season and the longest Cover streak during that tiemframe is a C13...Not too many Cover-10s or higher...
Tough loss last night, but there will be plenty of tough losses as the season progresses...This is the NBA...
0-1, -$110
Tonight, short on time, but I do have a bet for 8:00 EST....I already played the Nets at 7 but wasn't able to post it in time, but I am taking:
Utah Jazz -1, laying $110 to win $100 -- The Jazz have owned this series recently, winning and covering 8 of the last 9...The Hornets have been struggling mightily over the last several weeks..They barely eeked out a win at home last time out vs. Sacramento, as they were down 16 at the half before coming back to win by 3...Utah is 7-3 on the Road, which to me, cancels out the Hornets 10-3 Home record...
GL...
Other notes:
The reason I liked NJ is because of their 6-0 ATS record on the back-end of back-to-backs this season...The heat have a c"chart-play" against them tonight as they had covered 8 straight before not covering last time out vs. Cleveland, so a "chart-play" states that as soon as a streak comes to an end, it will reverse itself immediately and have a streak going the other way and the longer the streak, the longer the reversal streak will be...I also like the Lakers to end the Sixers C10 streak as Philly is getting up in rarified air with this C10 of theirs...I have a database that goes back 19+ years to the 1991-92 season and the longest Cover streak during that tiemframe is a C13...Not too many Cover-10s or higher...
Thursday, December 16, 2010
Thursday's thoughts...
12/16
I am actually going to break out a bet tonight...
Denver Nuggets -1, laying $110 to win $100 -- More of a gutshot play then a trend play...A lot of my trends are against me here, but The Spurs have won 6 in a row (all at home) and are now on a back-ender if a back-to-back (which they are 2-1 ATS this season)...But the Spurs haven't fared very well on back-enders in recent years...Billups is OUT for Denver, but this doesn't bother me as teams will often rise up with a star-player out (like the Nuggets did last time when Billips didn't play)...The Spurs beat MILW at the buzzer last night and now go to Denver, and the Nuggets just destroyed ORL at Home 2 nights ago...Billups didn't play in this one and the Nuggets didn't miss a beat...SA is 21-3, but this is not going to last forever as I see Denver getting up for this one on National TV and beating the Spurs...
GL...
I am actually going to break out a bet tonight...
Denver Nuggets -1, laying $110 to win $100 -- More of a gutshot play then a trend play...A lot of my trends are against me here, but The Spurs have won 6 in a row (all at home) and are now on a back-ender if a back-to-back (which they are 2-1 ATS this season)...But the Spurs haven't fared very well on back-enders in recent years...Billups is OUT for Denver, but this doesn't bother me as teams will often rise up with a star-player out (like the Nuggets did last time when Billips didn't play)...The Spurs beat MILW at the buzzer last night and now go to Denver, and the Nuggets just destroyed ORL at Home 2 nights ago...Billups didn't play in this one and the Nuggets didn't miss a beat...SA is 21-3, but this is not going to last forever as I see Denver getting up for this one on National TV and beating the Spurs...
GL...
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Wednesday thoughts...
12/15
Not a lot of time as of this minute, but the Bulls have had 6 "check-mark" games this season (games where they are rested and their opponent is on the 2nd-half of a back-to-back) and they have gone Under in all 6 games...Not to mention that CHI and TOR have gone Under 4 straight head-to-head...The Lakers are only 2-2 ATS in back-enders, but Indy is only 3-3 ATS in their check-mark games, and with Bynum back and the Lakers' starters not logging a ton of minutes last night, I like the Lakers here as they also have a revenge spot for a loss at Staples a few weeks back vs. Indy...Philly 5-2 to the Under in the back-end of back-to-backs...They have covered 9 straight...The Clips are 3-1 ATS with their check-mark games...So I like the Clippers, Lakers and Chi/Tor Under for the 7:00 games...
Not a lot of time as of this minute, but the Bulls have had 6 "check-mark" games this season (games where they are rested and their opponent is on the 2nd-half of a back-to-back) and they have gone Under in all 6 games...Not to mention that CHI and TOR have gone Under 4 straight head-to-head...The Lakers are only 2-2 ATS in back-enders, but Indy is only 3-3 ATS in their check-mark games, and with Bynum back and the Lakers' starters not logging a ton of minutes last night, I like the Lakers here as they also have a revenge spot for a loss at Staples a few weeks back vs. Indy...Philly 5-2 to the Under in the back-end of back-to-backs...They have covered 9 straight...The Clips are 3-1 ATS with their check-mark games...So I like the Clippers, Lakers and Chi/Tor Under for the 7:00 games...
Tuesday, December 14, 2010
Tuesday's thoughts...
12/14
Ok, I know my 76ers have covered 8 straight and coach Doug Collins has this team playing well, but they are small FAVs on the road?...A team that is 1-10 on the Road?...Sixers are one of the best if not the best ATS teams in the NBA right now, but people who have followed me over the years know I like to jump on streaks up to a point and then I like to predict the exact time they will end...Lots of streaks running right now, too, SU (straight up) wise and ATS-wise...Dallas has their 12-game win streak snapped last night...Heat have won 9 straight and had covered 7 in a row until pushing (n the closing line) last night...GS has lost 7 straight...BOS has won 10 straight and NY has won 8 straight...CLE has been atrocious in losing 8 straight while CHI has made the adjustment to Boozer joining the team and has won 6 straight...
Back to the Philly game though...I like this NJ team, despite ther 6-18 record as they are 12-12 ATS on the season, but they are a better team than last season's debacle...The Nets come into this game with a 7-game losing streak of their own, but this is one of those games on the schedule that losing teams circle as a game they can win...I do like the Nets here to win this one...
I cannot remember if I have ever bet 10.5-point chalk on the Road in my entire NBA handicapping/betting career, but if I ever was going to, I'd take the Lake-Show tonight as they can name their margin of victory tonight at the Wiz...With Wall & Blatche out and Arenas banged up, The Lakers should win this by at least 15...They were way up against WAS on 12/7 at Staples, before WAS made a 2H run to make the game close and cover as the 2-time defending champs lost interest and focus and let them back in it...LAL has covered just once in their last 10 games and I think they get a blowout here tonight...
The other game that jumped out at me a little was the Min/GS game as I like this one Over the total...I mentioned on therx before the season started that this GS team was going to be an Under team and they have been 16-8 to the Under on the season...With that said, the Warriors have not had more than 3 Unders in a row all season and with the Under last night at Utah, GS has now gone Under 3 straight again...Curry is doubtful, so this will stifle the GS offense, of course, but Minny is certainly capable of pusing the pace and the Warriors may be just fine with that and at Oracle, that 214.5 is attainable, even without Curry...
Ok, I know my 76ers have covered 8 straight and coach Doug Collins has this team playing well, but they are small FAVs on the road?...A team that is 1-10 on the Road?...Sixers are one of the best if not the best ATS teams in the NBA right now, but people who have followed me over the years know I like to jump on streaks up to a point and then I like to predict the exact time they will end...Lots of streaks running right now, too, SU (straight up) wise and ATS-wise...Dallas has their 12-game win streak snapped last night...Heat have won 9 straight and had covered 7 in a row until pushing (n the closing line) last night...GS has lost 7 straight...BOS has won 10 straight and NY has won 8 straight...CLE has been atrocious in losing 8 straight while CHI has made the adjustment to Boozer joining the team and has won 6 straight...
Back to the Philly game though...I like this NJ team, despite ther 6-18 record as they are 12-12 ATS on the season, but they are a better team than last season's debacle...The Nets come into this game with a 7-game losing streak of their own, but this is one of those games on the schedule that losing teams circle as a game they can win...I do like the Nets here to win this one...
I cannot remember if I have ever bet 10.5-point chalk on the Road in my entire NBA handicapping/betting career, but if I ever was going to, I'd take the Lake-Show tonight as they can name their margin of victory tonight at the Wiz...With Wall & Blatche out and Arenas banged up, The Lakers should win this by at least 15...They were way up against WAS on 12/7 at Staples, before WAS made a 2H run to make the game close and cover as the 2-time defending champs lost interest and focus and let them back in it...LAL has covered just once in their last 10 games and I think they get a blowout here tonight...
The other game that jumped out at me a little was the Min/GS game as I like this one Over the total...I mentioned on therx before the season started that this GS team was going to be an Under team and they have been 16-8 to the Under on the season...With that said, the Warriors have not had more than 3 Unders in a row all season and with the Under last night at Utah, GS has now gone Under 3 straight again...Curry is doubtful, so this will stifle the GS offense, of course, but Minny is certainly capable of pusing the pace and the Warriors may be just fine with that and at Oracle, that 214.5 is attainable, even without Curry...
A brief background on me...
First, some quick background...
I have been handicapping professional sports for more than 25 years and the NBA is my specialty...Most of my posts will be geared towards the NBA as I have taken the last 3 years off handicapping the NHL and MLB as I have started working at the place I co-founded...I still davel in the NFL so I will share some thoughts there, but the NBA is where it is at for me for the most part these days...I have been posting on sports gambling forums since 2003 and have developed a good reputation as a handicapper, especially in the NBA...
I started posting at one of the biggest handicapping forums in the world to start this NBA season and went 3-1 on my bets, 12-6 on my #1 picks and 59-47-1 on all of my picks during the Preseason...
I got off to a very slow start in the regular season, especially with my totals as I was down about 5 units when I stopped posting at therx and a very bad start with my totals was the reason as I was 3-5 with my bets...My Sides picks were 11-6 and my totals picks were 7-12 when I stopped posting on 11/9 as I had to go to the ER for multiple spider bites on my head at that time, so I took a break from posting...
A friend of mine, who is now in Arizona wanted to start a website as I was recovering from the spider bites, so we do have a site under construction at www.sportsgambling.cc... So I am working on the site and will post a little bit on the forum created there, but my daily thoughts will be on this blog...
But after recovering from the spider bites, my picks were very mediocre at best for several weeks and my bets were about breakeven...But finally, about 6 days ago, things are starting to click again as I have been on a tear with my totals (with almost all of my picks being Unders) and my sides have been good, too, and I have been playing a lot more game lines the past week...
Since starting at Le Academe, I haven't had anywhere near as much free time as I used to, so due to lack of time to handicap games the way I used to, I have transformed myself into a 2nd-half specialist...I also have been betting a lot of 1Qs, 1Hs and 3Qs the last 2 years...Last season, 90 to 95% of my bets were 2H or 1Q bets...This season, I have been mixing it up fairly well, and I hope the winning I have experienced the last 6 days carries over for a while...
I have been handicapping professional sports for more than 25 years and the NBA is my specialty...Most of my posts will be geared towards the NBA as I have taken the last 3 years off handicapping the NHL and MLB as I have started working at the place I co-founded...I still davel in the NFL so I will share some thoughts there, but the NBA is where it is at for me for the most part these days...I have been posting on sports gambling forums since 2003 and have developed a good reputation as a handicapper, especially in the NBA...
I started posting at one of the biggest handicapping forums in the world to start this NBA season and went 3-1 on my bets, 12-6 on my #1 picks and 59-47-1 on all of my picks during the Preseason...
I got off to a very slow start in the regular season, especially with my totals as I was down about 5 units when I stopped posting at therx and a very bad start with my totals was the reason as I was 3-5 with my bets...My Sides picks were 11-6 and my totals picks were 7-12 when I stopped posting on 11/9 as I had to go to the ER for multiple spider bites on my head at that time, so I took a break from posting...
A friend of mine, who is now in Arizona wanted to start a website as I was recovering from the spider bites, so we do have a site under construction at www.sportsgambling.cc... So I am working on the site and will post a little bit on the forum created there, but my daily thoughts will be on this blog...
But after recovering from the spider bites, my picks were very mediocre at best for several weeks and my bets were about breakeven...But finally, about 6 days ago, things are starting to click again as I have been on a tear with my totals (with almost all of my picks being Unders) and my sides have been good, too, and I have been playing a lot more game lines the past week...
Since starting at Le Academe, I haven't had anywhere near as much free time as I used to, so due to lack of time to handicap games the way I used to, I have transformed myself into a 2nd-half specialist...I also have been betting a lot of 1Qs, 1Hs and 3Qs the last 2 years...Last season, 90 to 95% of my bets were 2H or 1Q bets...This season, I have been mixing it up fairly well, and I hope the winning I have experienced the last 6 days carries over for a while...
Welcome to the Blog...
As time permits, I will post my thoughts for the handicappers/tipsters interested in gaining an edge in the world of sports gambling...
Enjoy...
Enjoy...
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