Tuesday thoughts...

Super-busy here at work the last 2 days...

Wanted to touch briefly on why I laid off the Under on Sunday...The total moved 3.5 points...It had moved 3 when I was ready to bet it, and to me, this was too much value to lose...At 211, I would have bet it Under (and it would have pushed)...Of course, I didn't know that before the game...But I felt that line was already about as low as it could go for me to feel comfortable going with the Under, an in fact, I posted Saturday night (late) that I expected the foolish public to bet that total up another point or 2...Never happened...The "smart" money pounded the under and lost their asses at 207.5, 208, etc., while I laid off...Had the public gotten involved heavily and it went to 212 or 213, I would have bet it under and won...

Anyway, I mention this simply as something to store away for the future in case people tell you that "a total moving 2 or 3 points either way doesn't matter"...It DOES matter...I have bet many totals on the overnight line (to beat the line movement) in the past and won where I had I waited till the line moved, I would have lost...Yet another example on Sunday where 3 points made the difference between a push and a loss...

I like 3 games tonight, but I am only going to bet one...

I like ORL, TOR and NY...

I am betting the Knicks:

23-14, +1085

New York Knicks +8.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Sure, we all know how Miami hammered the Knicks a little over a week ago at MSG...But for people who follow me, you certainly know that I love these quick-turnaround revenge spots...This is close enough to count as another one for me...The Heat are certainly flying high now, especially after that dismantling of the Lake-Show on Christmas...But a 5-10 ATS Home record doesn't inspire confidence for me and this is a big-time let-down spot for Miami...Besides, with the way the Knicks are playing right now, I'll take them with 8.5 against anybody, anywhere...They are the team with the greater motivational spot here, as they have the revenge, while Miami just trounced them about 11 days ago, so what do they have to prove here?...The motivational edge is always THE edge that I look for when capping any game...New York has it, and I have 8.5 points of insurance in my back pocket...

GL...