Saturday, March 31, 2012

no plays...

Giving serious thought to the Memp/Milw Over 2H, but will pass on it...

Nothing qualifies though, so I should just lay off as I took a shot with the Char/Det Under 2H and will probably regret that play in about 5 minutes...

Cha/Det Under 2H...

Only play I see so far for the 1st batch...

Charlotte/Detroit under 90.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $104 -- Pace doesn't justify the Over...It'll be close though...Not a super-strong play as it doesn't qualify as a play for me, but I am taking a shot because I see some value on the 2H line because I liked the game line Under to start with...

GL...

other SAT looks...

Some fishy lines this week that have baffled me...NO getting 9 or 9.5 at PORT a couple of days ago was baffling and the Hornets getting 12.5 today was really puzzling...I mean, I know NO has guys injured, but c'mon, this team is scrappy...

ATL was 6.5 at Philly today and I find that one hard to believe with how Philly has been playing, but they have owned ATL this year (ATL without Horford, that is) and Philly has ATL in a tough spot tonight, playing their 7th game in 9 days and travelling from ATL last night while Philly had a short trip back from DC...So perhaps Philly is the play here...

Philly hasn't had an an Over in a back-ender in 8 weeks and ATL hasn't had one in 6 weeks...Philly has 5 straight under in back-enders and ATL has 7 straight (not counting the 3rd-game-in-3-nights game)...

But I will lay off as Vegas is on to that one with with a 177.5 total...

One Under worth a shot may be Char/Det as DET is banged up and has 5 straight stone unders and CHAR is hardly a point-scoring machine and we have a 182.5 there...The Pace in DET games have slowed dramatically the last 3 games...Too much for Vegas to adjust to completely, IMO, that is IF Detroit keeps playing at the ridiculously slow Pace they have played at their last 3 games...

I also like Indy any damn time they get 8 points against anyone...

I am going to lay off any more game lines and stalk for 2H lines...

automatic play...

I'll grab it (afternoon play Under) as it is a chart-play to the Under for LAL after getting an Under last time out vs. OKC...Lakers an Over machine the last 6 weeks, but has the tide finally turned after THUR's game?...

New Orleans/LA Lakers under 186.5, laying $100 to win $100...

GL...

Friday, March 30, 2012

no plays late...

NJ right on the cusp of a play and is tempting, considering GS just loves to blow 2nd half leads...

Clips a chart-play on the game line so consideration could be given to the Clips, 2H, but I am passing on both...

nothing with 8:05 batch...

I had a typo with the Knicks 2H line that I fixed...

I don't see anything worthy of a play here...Lean to Det/Chi Under 2H, but it doesn't qualify as a play at all, but it is a situation that I should research because this is an odd 1Q-2Q situation as they scored 53 in the 1Q and then just 26 in the 2Q...That, to me, smells like an Under...

We'll see...

Oh, and a lot of times, I believe, when you have a situation similar to this, the 3Q will mirror the 1Q (and be an Over( and the 4Q will mirror the 2Q (and be an Under)...

I'll be watching...

NYK 2H...

Cleveland easily qualifies as a play, but I have mentioned before that they have bee a terrible 2H team this year when getting beat by 20 or so points this year at the half...I don't trust them and am not playing them...

I will take a shot with New York:

New York Knicks -2, 2H, laying $100 to win $105 -- Jr Smith is 0-for-6 and many other Knicks shot poorly, and Novak hasn't taken a shot, so I am hoping Novak starts shooting (and well) and that everyone else picks it up a notch...

GL...

Ok, now we go...

Last rush of customers hit the last 20 minutes, so I was unable to look at 2H action, but I should be ok now...

super-busy night...

things just clearing up here -- just in time as games go to the half...

Thursday, March 29, 2012

2H looks...

I am not taking anything, but if I was forced to I would take OKC and the Over...

Neither qualify as plays so I am staying away...

lean to the Under...

Shooting percentages not quite high enough for a play for me...Both NOH and Port are shooting well and shooting especially well from trey-land, but I will pass on a play here...

Dal/Mia under 2H...

Qualifies as a play...If Miami can get up DDs in the 3Q, that would slow things down quite a bit...

Pace doesn't justify the Over...Combination of very good shooting and very bad defense in the 1H...Need some defense in the 2H...

Dallas/Miami under 93.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $100...

GL...

Indy & the Under...

These are my leans...I will take one of them...

Indy has been great beating up on sub-.500 teams and WAS has gone Under 8 in a row...Big bounce-back spot for Indy...

Only issue that concerns me about the Under is that Indy Coach Frank Vogel says he wants to push the Pace tonight as the Wizards have been slowing it down as their new coach has been focusing on defense...

Plus, we haven't had a streak of any kind go above 8 this season in the NBA (C, NC, Ov or Un), and this Under streak for the Wizards sits at 8 right now, although I really want to play this Under...

WAS 4-8-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not...

If I take the Pacers, than I am expecting a blowout, which means I should take the Under...

I will take this side (and I won't mess around with the Under streak)...Again, rare for me to lay this many points...Rare...But all these Indy announcers are talking about was how bad Indy looked last time out, saying it was their worst game of the year...Enough for me to take them in this bounce-back spot

Indiana Pacers -9.5, laying $106 to win $100...

GL...

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

GS 2H...

Ok, we'll try it again...

Golden State Warriors -6, 2H, laying $100 to win $102 -- Feel better having the Home team this time around as this qualifies as a stronger play than the ORL pick earlier...

GL...

no plays in SAC...

Don't see anything here except a tiny thought to the Over, but I liked the game total Under to begin with as these teams haven't scored much H-2-H this season, but I'll stay away...

2 more games left...

smoke finally clearing...

Just got buried here and I wish it would have happened a little sooner so I would have missed that ORL play...I didn't even have a prayer at looking at the three 7:35 games at the half...Hopefully I didn't miss anything...Doesn't really look like I did...

I'll stalk the late games later, after I get home in about an hour or so...

ORL 2H...

Swamped here at work...

ORL barely qualifies, but it has some value...Hopefully ORL shows up in the 2H...

Orlando Magic -5, 2H, laying $107 to win $100...

GL...

lean to ATL...

Home team has won every game h-2-h this season and yes, I know this is the 5th game in 6 days for ATL, but MIL did just fine in this spot last night, beating these same Hawks...CHI has looked mediocre their last 2 games...Playing extended games without Rose is catching up with them, IMO...

I am not betting ATL though...

Super-busy today at work and I only had time to glance at the games...I will stalk for 2H lines as there are 7 games that will be going to half within 30 minutes of each other from about 8:05 to 8:35ish...

Also, either THUR or FRI, I will start posting at the ThinkDog forum for the rest of the NBA regular season...More on that later...

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

no plays at Oracle...

Nothing standing out at all at GS...

I can't even find a lean, really, but hey, sometimes that happens for an entire night...

Just hoping PORT doesn't fall apart like NJ did last night...

taking Portland 2H...

Portland Trailblazers -3, 2H, laying $100 to win $107 -- Qualifies as a play...I wish PORT was down 20 or more, but regardless, this qualifies and I feel that I am contractually obligated to take this one...

GL...

I am not taking the SA/Phoe Under 2H as it doesn't qualify as a play although it is within the area code of a play when you look at the Pace, but I will pass...

if you like Dallas to win the game...

Then you have to take the Mavs...Doesn't qualify as a play, but there is plenty of value here as the 2H line crosses zero and you only need the Mavs to win by 2 buckets to win this bet...

I am not taking it though...

And, yes, Cleveland didn't cover a 2H line again...

no plays, 2nd batch...

Almost seems odd not to have at least some 2H looks through 3 games after the rash of plays and borderline plays the last week or so, but nothing yet...

Hopefully Dallas will be down by a lot at halftime...

no-plays in PHI, 2H...

Cleveland does qualify as a play, barely, but there is no way I am taking them as I have gotten burned many times taking them on 2H lines this season and they haven't even come close to covering most of them...

Next batch in an hour...

will look at 2H lines...

Busy night tonight, no time to do anything but look at 2H stuff, and hopefully I will have time to do that...

With no capping at all, I kind of liked MEM (they seem to have found their rhythm finally with Randolph back) and HOU...No plays on the game lines...

Monday, March 26, 2012

no-plays with Clips 2H...

No play on the side at all...

On the surface, you can look at the shooting percentages and say, "Wow, great shooting, not a lot of shots, must be an Under Pace here"...But hold the phone...

There were 23 turnovers in the 1H...That factors into the Pace equation...23 turnovers is a game total for 1/3 to 1/2 of the games during the season...The Pace at Staples is faster than you think, therefore nullifying the Under play here, despite the high shooting %'s...

Kinda dumb, really...

The Clips have been a great 1Q team at home almost all season and I knew they'd be fired up for this one, so not taking them on the 1Q line was stupid...I even mentioned taking them in my write-up...Well, Clips out to an 18-2 lead to start the game and covered the 1Q easily, but already the 16-point lead has completely evaporated...

Oy vey...

disappointing loss with NJ...

NJ cut the lead to 3 early in the 4Q and were outscoring Utah in the 2H by 14 at that point and things were looking great, and then - C-o-l-l-a-p-s-e...I am work, leaving shortly, but man, what the heck happened there?...Utah outscored them by 18 to close out the game....

Well, one play left and then tomorrow is another day...

no-plays in CHI and HOU...

The Rockets do qualify as a play, BUT, the "Bermuda Triangle" 2H line that I talked about last night where the 2H line passes 7 but not zero nullifies this play for me...

If you think HOU will win this game, you have tons of value here...But I won't play a 2H line that falls in that "dead-zone" (see last night's post for an explanation)...

taking the Clips tonight...

Los Angeles Clippers -9.5, laying $108 to win $100 -- The old brewers7 would NEVER have taken this play...Never...I am basically a DOG player who take maybe one double-digit FAV every 3 or 4 years...But this is a quick-revenge game (both teams just played each other less than 7 days ago) and remember that Jason Smith clocked Blake Griffin in that game and got suspended 2 games...The Clips ended a NC6 streak against Memphis last time out, so we have a chart-play for the Clips, a revenge-game for the Clips and they will be the more motivated team...Now I have seen this Clips blow leads all year long and I think 9.5 points is borderline ridiculous, but I am hoping that LAC will keep the pedal to the medal in this one and send the Hornets a message...I probably should take the Clips in the 1Q as they should come out with a LOT of intensity like they did against Memphis last time out...The Clips got a big lead and held it against Memphis, and I look  for more of the same tonight...

GL...

no-plays in NY...

borderline play on the Over in NY due to the Pace, but I will pass here because this is a HUGE game for the 8th spot in the East, so the Pace may slow in the 4Q for this reason (playoff-type game)...

If you think the Knicks will win this game, you have value here with the 2H play...Just keep in mind that Stoudamire and Lin are out tonight...

NJ 2H...

Man, the juice is flying as I was waiting for this one and got it as soon as it was posted...Juice flowing at -125 now in some places already...

New Jersey Nets -4, 2H, laying $110 to win $100 -- Deron Williams just 1-for-9 in the 1H (looking for that to change) and Gerald Wallace only has 5 points and every Utah starter played at least 49.5 minutes last night in that 4-OT marathon, which I am hoping will show some effects in the 2H...Over is a borderline, play, too, but I'll stick with the Nets...

GL...

ding-ding-ding...

Ring the bells, a 2H play is coming in NJ...

passing on Det/Was Over 2H...

This does qualify as a play...

But I remember seeing the linescore in the 2H of the Was/Bos game on Sunday and they didn't score there in the 2H last night after a lowing-scoring 1H...

So I will pass because I am not sure if these teams could shoot their way out of a wet paper bag...

Nothing else qualifies...

Stalking for 2H plays tonight...

I have 2 projects to complete in the next 48 hours, so I will be swamped...I will look for 2H opportunities...I glanced at the game lines and the only lean I have their is Toronto...

Probably no write-ups until this project is done...

Sunday, March 25, 2012

no play on Lake-Show...

If you think the Lakers are going to win the game, then you have plenty of value on this 2H line...

For me, it is a bad situation as the value is severely reduced because it crosses 7, but does NOT cross zero, so for me, it's a no-play as it falls in that "dead-zone" or the "Bermuda Triangle" of 2H spreads between -7 & zero...I rarely want to take the "new" game line when it falls in this range and the Lakers new line falls smack dab in the middle of that "dead zone" as the new line is Lakers +3.5...

No thanks...Too dangerous...

Plus, I already talked about how I liked Memphis in this one anyway...

saw I missed two 2H plays...

Unreal, as I just looked at the first half numbers on the Was/Bos game and that game was a stone-cold, no-doubter play at the half -- Bos 65% at the half and Was 29% shooting...Was down 19 and Boston a Pk...Automatic play...

Utah qualified, too, as Atl shot 51% and Utah 34% at the half and Utah down 15 and the Jazz -4 on the 2H line with Atl playing their 3rd game in 3 nights...Automatic play...

Too easy, but I was playing hoops for the last Sunday of the year...I wish last Sunday was the last day...

Also, this year, I am just making every play on my blog for 1 unit...

That won't happen next year...

I almost made this Mia/OKC 2H under a 2-unit play because of how strong a play it was...It didn't just qualify as a play, it qualified in spades...It was a super-strong play...Taking Miami on the 2H line for the same unit-play as that Under, in reality, is NOT smart...But I am just posting every play this year at 1 unit just to show what are plays and what are not and I have been passing on too many plays this year, too, which won't happen next year...

The Miami play was a value-play and it barely qualified as that...Had the 2H line been 4 or 4.5, it isn't even a play...No way that play should have the same unit-value attached to it as a play (the 2H under) that qualified as a VERY strong play with my criteria...

passing on PORT 2H...

I said earlier I don't understand why GS got 10 in this game...Very confusing to me, so much so, I thought something was fishy and I passed...

I will pass on taking PORT 2H...I'll pass on the 2H Over, too as PORT shot just 32% in the 1H, but this still desn't quite qualify as a 2H Over...If you think PORT can win the game, take them, but I am not even convinced of that...Although GS is famous for giving away 1H leads, although they seem to do it more at Home than on the Road...

I want to take Memphis SO BAD tonight as I have mentioned several times that they were going to struggle with Randolph back, and they have...But sooner or later, they will put it together and I think tonight will be the night...I'll watch and wait for a 2H line...

2H plays...

Automatic play here:

Miami/Oklahoma City Under 98.5, 2H, laying $102 to win $100...Pace does NOT justify this Over...Just look at the 1H shooting percentages...Off the charts...I liked the game Under as it was...

Will take a shot with:

Miami Heat -3.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $100 -- New line is over the key number of 7 (7.5), so I will take it with a team like the Heat, who are good at swarming on defense in the 2H and making runs...Heat only need to lose by 7 for me to win this...

GL...

lots of trends tonight...

Took a brief look at these games and I have a lean to Utah, although Vegas certainly has adjusted this line, big-time as ATL is playing their 3rd game in 3 nights...

SA also playing their 3rd game in 3 nights and you gotta love Coach Popovich as he carefully chose which games he was going to rest his "Big 3"...He sat Parker down against DAL at home and the Spurs didn't miss a beat, winning by 17...Spurs didn't need Parker's quickness against DAL, who is certainly a slower and older team..."Pop" made sure Duncan played vs. the Hornets as Timmy had a season-high 28 the first time they played at New Orleans and Duncan also had the game-winner that night...So he gave Ginobili the night off yesterday...Now tonight Philly comes in and the Sixers are quick, but apparently weren't quick enough to stop Parker at Philly in early FEB as Parker went for 37 in that game... So Popovich made sure that Parker was playing tonight...

Vegas making a big line-adjustment there, too...

I am not sure why GS is getting about 10 at PORT as I don't think Nate Robinson being doubtful should make that big a difference...I'll probably stay away, but I am looking at Memphis and may play them after I get back from playing basketball...

I will miss the next 3 halftime lines due to playing hoops but I should be back just in time for the Miami/OKC 2H line...

does Denver have any pride?...

I may regret this one because I have been watching this game and the Nuggets look terrible...And I worry that Coach George Karl will start resting guys for their game in Chicago tomorrow night...Minny doesn't play tomorrow night...

But I will take a shot that this Denver team will show a little pride and actually play some defense in the 2nd half...

Denver Nuggets -5, 2H, laying $102 to win $100...

GL...

automatic plays...

Of course I have mentioned for years that afternoon NBA games are "automatic unders", or at least, the default play is always under...

2 games today...

I would have taken Phoe/Cle Under, but not Den/Min with the way Denver has ben playing "defense" since the All-Star break, allowing 107 points per game...We'll see how they play out...

Now a question I will answer myself during the summer or fall is, "At what time is a game no longer an afternoon game?"...And to be honest, I am not sure...To me, the earlier the game time, the more apt it is to go Under...I personally would cut it off at either 3:05 or 3:35 local time (that is, local time to the city it is being played in)...

So CLE was a 3:05 local start time and Minny was a 2:35 local start time today...

a play already...

Ok, if this loses, I'll wish the power didn't come on till 20 or 25 minutes later...But I have to take this, even though Cleveland has gotten spanked several times this year at home and did not cover similar lines in similar spots...

Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $105...

GL...

power outage...

Power was out all day in my neighborhood and just came on about 10 minutes ago...

I am looking at scores and updating lines now...

Saturday, March 24, 2012

2H lean...

SAC just does qualify as a 2H play and we are above the key number of 7 on the "new" game line, but I will pass on this one, despite seeing GS give away many leads in the 2H the past few years at Oracle...I pushed the last two 2H plays tonight a bit as CHI didn't come close to covering the 2H line, although SA missed 2 FTs with 2 seconds left to cost me the cover in the other game and I had to settle for the push...

Not chasing...Tomorrow is another day...

2H plays...

Not crazy about these as they don't really qualify, but the value is too good to pass up...

Chicago Bulls -10.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $100...


San Antonio Spurs -4, 2H, laying $110 to win $100...

GL...

lean to Det/NY Over 2H...

I am not taking this, but the Pace was fairly quick in the 1H...Lots of free-throws, lot of turnovers, bad shooting percentages...If they fix these 3 things in the 2H, you should have an Over...

I will pass on it though and look for something better later...

passed on ATL 2H...

Not sure why, really, with the tremendous value here with the -4 line, but it doesn't qualify as a play, so I'll let it go, although I took a long look at that -11 alternative 2H line...WASH is playing better of late...

as Tom Selleck of Magnum P.I. used to say...

"I gotta listen to that little voice"...

I decided not to take Memphis on the 4Q line and went with the 2H line and sure enough, the Grizz covered the 4Q line and lost on the 2H line...The Under opened at 190 and had I seen that I would have taken it, but I HATE missing line moves on Unders I want to take, and even though when I saw it, I had plus-juice at 187 Under, I thought that was pushing it and sure enough, it would have been pushing it right to the limit as the score ended up at 186...Still a win, which I regret because I didn't take it, but what a sweat-job that would have been...

I am going to pass on a game line as I was going to take the Detroit Pistons +10.5, but think it is risky since NY has blown out all 3 opponents at Home since Mike Woodson took over & NY is coming off a 17-point loss last night...If NY had won last night, I'd take a shot, but with all the blowouts in this shortened/condensed season, the DOGs don't have as much value as they do during most seasons...

I will take:

Indiana/Milwaukee Over 204.5, laying  $106 to win $100 -- BOTH teams playing their 3rd game in 3 nights and I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I think this situation did ok for the Over in 1998-99 (the last shortened season)...But regardless, I don't see a lot of defense here, as I expect my "tired legs equals Overs" to come to fruition here as both teams have been going Over in back-enders recently (MILW 10-1 to the Over their last 11 and Indy 4-1-1 to the Over their last 6)...

GL...

Memphis 2H...

I'll take a stab here...Value-play..."New" game line is now 11 for the Clips, which is 4 above the only NBA key number of 7...Tempted to take the 4Q line in case the Clips come out fast again to start the 3Q, but I don't want to over-think this one...

Memphis Grizzlies -3, 2H, laying $103 to win $100...

GL...

can't quite pull the trigger...

Memphis -3 in the 2nd half is tempting, very tempting...Borderline play...

I am at work so I haven't been able to watch the 1st half, but I think Memphis can get back into this one...Clips have been a bad 2H team recently...There is a lot of value here...I may end up taking it...Need another minute...

ThinkDog Forum...

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If you click on the banner at the top of the page, that will take you to TripleThreatSports777, and all you have to do is click on the Forum button or the ThinkDog button...

Or click here for a direct link: ThinkDog

passing on the automatic under...

Anyone who has followed me over the years knows about "afternoon unders" in the NBA...It is an automatic default play for me...

I am a little wary of this one despite the Clips having 6 straight Unders at Home...It's a bit of a chart-play still, to take the Over as the Clips went on a brief 3-game road trip (in 3 days no less) and had 3 straight Overs...

I probably should take it as Memphis is still easing into their new rotations with Randolph back in the mix, and the Clips just look lost right now, but I am worried about them coming home to a fired-up Staples crowd and being re-energized today, so I will lay off the Under and look for a 2H play...

Friday, March 23, 2012

Passing on Philly 2H...

I just am not in the mood to try them here...Philly struggling mightily...

passed on Min/OKC Under 2H...

Borderline play there that I passed on...

I am thinking about Philly as they are also another borderline play which has more value because this is basically a cross-over zero game now with the 2H line and all Philly has to do is win to cover this 2H line...

I may pass, though, need to decide quick...

passing on DET 2H...

The Pistons qualify as a 2H play, and Miami has had a few 2H lapses when they are up 20+ at halftime, but man, I just don't have the guts to take Detroit here...I just don't have the belly for it...

I'll wait and see if something better comes along...5 games left...

2H leans...

I kinda like NY and the Over for the 2H, but I am passing on both...

If you believe the Knicks are going to win this game, you are basically contractually obligated to take this 2H line...

The 2H Over does qualify as a play for me, BUT, since Mike Woodson took over the coaching reigns, the Knicks have gone Under 3 straight in the 2H...

I'll wait for the next batch of halftime lines...

SA 0-2 without Parker...

I wanted to take this Under without Parker, but I just looked and SA is 0-2 SU & ATS without him (40-point loss at PORT and 12-point loss at home vs. the Clips) and both games FLEW Over (234 at PORT and 228 vs. the Clips)...

So it looks like I am stalking 2H lines again tonight as I saw too many bad signs against me for every play I wanted to take tonight...

FRI looks...

Was going to take San Antonio for sure, but with Parker out, I cannot do it...

I was going to take Dal/SA Over, too as we have a rare occurrence where we have 2 teams with an Over-7 streak playing each other...I have an older version of my database at work that only contains the 1991-thru-2008 seasons and I just checked and there were no Ov7 vs. Ov7 matchups...None...There were two Ov7 vs. Ov6 and two Ov7 vs. Ov5 and 3 of those 4 went Over the total...So I was going to take this game Over until I saw that Parker was out tonight, and well, to me, he is the bulk of the offense...Duncan's numbers are way down, Ginobili is out of sync as he has been injured most of the season and these 2 teams are not that bad on the defensive end...DAL is 7th in the league in FG% against and SA is not atrocious at 18th...

And I did mention that most streaks of any kind, C, NC, OV & Un usually end at 7 and now we have 2 teams with an Over 7 matching up against each other...

I may take the Under here...

I was going to take SA on the game line but Parker being out nullifies that idea...Denver Over and Lakers Over are 2 I like but cannot pull the trigger on...I talked about Denver twice this week already...But Gallinari being out and Andre Miller playing with a separated shoulder worries me...This last Over they were involved in with DET was a bit of an anomaly as Ben Gordon shot 9-for-9 from trey-land and his teammates did just fine from that range, too, going 5-for-9 as DET shot 78% from beyond the arc and DEN shot 58% form the field for the game...Lakers have gone Over 8 of 9...

I am still passing on both...

Really tempted to take Boston tonight...Had they lost to Milwaukee, I would have...My Sixers are really struggling...Celtics have a big revenge spot losing by 32 at Philly 2 weeks ago...Philly not good when they have rest and their opponent does not, just 2-5 ATS, but 1of those 2 covers was against BOS 2 weeks ago in the afore-mentioned game...BOS 1-6 ATS their last 7 back-enders...

And we have a chart-play to fade Milwaukee tonight after their C8 got snapped last night and I was frothing at the mouth to fade them, but I CANNOT take Charlotte...

Thursday, March 22, 2012

small lean to SAC 2H...

I am not betting it, but it's a borderline play to lay the 3 here...Doesn't qualify for me as a 2H play, but there certainly is value here for sure...

I'll take the 1-0 night, although I am ticked off that I wasn't home for the easy play and cake-walk 2H winner with Indy which would have given me a nice 2-0 night...

Tomorrow is another day, though...

LAC/NO Under 2H...

I am really torn here...I wasn't going to take this...But  maybe I am a little shy on pulling the trigger because of this 3-game losing streak...

This is right on the cusp of being a play and in fact, it does qualify, but I generally want my 2H Unders to be above and beyond the minimum criteria...This one is above the minimum for sure and it is right on the cusp of being a solid play...

I want to pass because I have this saying that "tired legs equals Overs"...I play basketball, so I take this from personal experience in that it is much harder to play good defense when you are tired than it is to score when you have tired legs...The exception would be the pure jump-shooter who will have trouble shooting when he loses his legs...

And we have the Clips playing their 3rd game in 3 days and 9th game in 12 days...NO on a back-ender, too...I wonder if these 2 teams just aren't going to play any defense this game...

But screw it, I have seen the Clips slow the game down in the 2H a LOT in recent games, so I hope they do it one more time...

LA Clippers/New Orleans Under 91, 2H, laying $105 to win $100...

GL...

passing on Bos/Milw under 2H...

The Pace is too quick...I want to take this under really bad, but this is going to be too close to the 2H total...I expect the 3Q and 4Q to be similar to the 2Q, but they still scored 50 in the 2Q, so even though I have a hunch this 2H may go Under, I am not betting this hunch...The score looks good for a 2H under, but the shooting percentages for both teams at the half are not high enough to justify a bet to the Under...

I am really liking this Clips/Hornets 2H under based on the score...Gotta look at the boxscore first...

of course, my meeting cost me a 2H play...

I looked at the halftime stats on nba.com and Indy qualified as a play easily and of course they are up 19 so far in the 2H (line was 8 or 8.5 depending when you got it) so barring a collapse, I would have had an easy winner...

Now that is frustrating...

Time to look at these halftime boxscores...

quick looks THUR...

Got to get to a meeting, so I will pass on any game actions and stalk 2H lines...

Clips in a tough spot here, 3rd game in 3 days, 5th game in 6 days and 9th game in 12 days...BRUTAL stretch...Only consolation here is that NO is on a back-ender and the Clips have a revenge spot after losing to the Hornets a month ago...To me, it's the Hornets or stay away...

And the trap of the night is Memphis at Portland...

How can you possibly take PORT here only getting a point you are asking?...

Well, to me it's either take PORT or stay away from the game...I switched back and forth and saw a lot of the MEMP/SAC game and the MILW/PORT game 2 nights ago as they were on DTV at the same time...

The Blazers bench started that game 0-for-22 and finished 2-for-29 as Jamal Crawford and others had horrible games for PORT off the bench...And Crawford reminds me of the "microwave", Vinnie Johnson from the Pistons of the late 80s (dating myself here) and he only had one bucket for the game (took 9 shots, I believe) and that kind of shooting from their bench cost me that Over...

But losing by 29 points at home creates a huge bounce-back spot for PORT, while Memphis has gotten Zach Randolph back, yes, but the Grizz looked out of sync with him back in the lineup...So Memphis is going to have an adjustment phase here as they reset their rotations to get Randolph his minutes, so this could actually be a very good spot to take Portland...

Although I don't have the guts to do it...

And the Bucks have covered 8 straight to match the highest Cover streak of the season as SA had a C8 earlier in the year...Most streaks end at 7, whether it's C, NC, Over or Under, and I don't think there has been a streak of any kind go over 8 yet this season, so I am a bit wary to take MILW here even though BOS is on the 7th game of an 8-game road trip...Although I always say to ride these streaks out till they bust and then when they bust, you go the other way and THAT is called a "chart-play" for those who have followed me for many years will know...

Be back if there are any good 2H opportunities...

reminder to self...

I said 2 days ago on my blog that Denver will be having Overs coming their way now that Nene has been traded (taking their only defensive presence out of the middle) and it would be good to grab these Overs before Vegas catches up with their totals...But I was so busy at work yesterday that I didn't even look at game lines or totals and didn't bet that DEN total, which, of course, flew Over...

I am getting ready to go to a meeting soon, so I am not sure if I will look at game lines, I may just try and stalk 2H lines, we'll see...

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Wow, nropp has some serious Twitter followers...

Dang, I had no idea nropp had almost 3000 followers on Twitter...Nice...

Dallas seemed to be on their way to covering the 2H number until the 12-6 run by the Lake-Show to start the 4Q, so this one looks dead...

But anyway, I have been capping the NBA for 30 years and have a database that I am adding more info to that goes back 31 years...

Here is a sample: Database

Hoping to have the majority of the new info I added to it done some time in the Fall....

After this loss, I will be at 61-43 on the year, going 0-3 my last 3 now...

My record is tracked at this tracking site: Tracking

Anyway, with my local baseball season starting up soon, my plays will probably diminish a bit, but we'll see if I can keep posting here for a while before shutting it down till next season...

Mavs 2H...

Busy day at work, but I got home just in time for this one as it does qualify as a 2H play:

Dallas Mavericks -5.5, 2H. laying $100 to win $100...

GL...

Wed looks...

Took a quick glance and I kind of like Detroit because I don't think too may people realize just how much Danilo Gallinari and Andre Miller mean to this team and they are both out tonight (and they could each miss 2 to 4 weeks)...The Mavs blew the Nuggets out of the water once both of those 2 were out of the game in the 3Q...I mean, Denver could rise up here, but DET has been playing better, covering 8 of 13 and the Nuggets should struggle with Gallinari and Miller...Even if they win tonight, they got to get over a 9-point number...Won't be easy...

Looking at NY, too...Kind of like staying with the hot team as the Knicks are rolling right now...Not a bad idea to ride out this streak, which is now a C5 and NY has won 4 straight...Philly only 2-4 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...Clips have a 4 of 5, 6 of 8 and 8 of 11 tonight vs. OKC and they are faltering...I want to take OKC, but I can see LAC back-dooring that number...Dallas is hitting their stride so this could eb a good spot to get their first win vs. LAL this season and 4.5 shouldn't be too much to get over...

WED...

0-2 last night with a tough loss and a disappointing loss...

Heat made their typical 4Q run, were up 7 (I only needed a 5-point win to cover the 2H line), it got cut to 4 and then Haslem hit 2 FTs with 26 seconds left to make it a 6-point lead and then a wild frenzy at the end saw PHOE miss 4 straight shots, but Miami could not get a rebound as Grant Hill put the 5th shot in from about 10 feet with about 3 seconds left and then the Heat inbounded to Wade, who was about to get fouled and unlike 99% of NBA players who would just wait for the foul and take a free point or 2, Wade decided to heave the ball down court to run out the clock and that was the tough loss...

The disappointing loss was the Milw/Port game not getting Over the 206 as Milwaukee did their part, scoring 116, so this should have been EASY...But Portland's bench started the game 0-for-22 and finished 2-for-29 (hard to handicap that kind of futility) as the Blazers could only manage 87 points to just keep it Under...And the Bucks were my top side and I didn't take them (did mention them yesterday), and what I need to remember is when I have my top side and top total from the same, I NEED to be betting the team total in that situation...

For instance, I liked MILW and the Over and those picks were my #1 side and #1 total for the day...So I need to bet the MILW team total Over, which would have been a cake-walk win...

And in reverse, if I have a top side and a top total from the same game and the total I like is an Under, then I need to bet the team total this way: I need to take the opponent of my #1 side and bet their team total Under...

Just giving you guys a good "formula" to get some more winners on your board...

As for tonight, I may just pass on the game lines and stalk 2H lines as I will be busy here at work and don't know if I will have time to cap the board...

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Heat 2H...

I probably shouldn't play this one as this is a strange halftime situation where the Heat are out-shooting the Suns by a lot (FG%) yet are down 4 points...

Miami Heat -9, 2H, laying $104 to win $100 -- Only 5 shots taken by D'Wade and 8 by LeBron, so I expect them to be more active in the 2H, and I remember the game that PHOE was up at the half at OKC, and they started the 3Q quick, too, and then got blown out of the water as OKC came back and slaughtered them and I believe they even covered the game line, which was about the same as this one...

GL...

early Tuesday play...

Before I mention this Bucks/Blazers game, I will first mention that I am on a tear right now, winning 8 straight plays (a great way to respond to a tough 1/2 point loss), 12 of 13 and I have won 17 of my last 20 (85%) to put me over 60% for the year, with all of my plays being tracked at this link: Tracking Site

I have already talked about how Milwaukee is going to push the pace now that they have picked up Monta Ellis...Heck, don't believe me, well, Coach Scott Skiles said so...He wants to push the ball more than ever now and he is one who liked that style as a player with Orlando as he had a lot of horses around him for a couple of seasons as Skiles still holds the NBA record for assists in a game with 30...And imagine if they get Forward Ersan Ilyasove back tonight?...Jeepers, if they have him with Ellis, Jennings & Delfino, look out as you'll have shots being launched all over the court...

But I don't see the Overs stopping for the Bucks even though they have already gone Over 6 straight and 11 of 12 (the Under was under the total by a single point)...And PORT lost 2 of their better defenders in Wallace and Camby at the trade deadline...

The total opened at 203, which I unfortunately missed as that was a joke, then it peaked at 206.5 and now it seems to be coming down now...I am going to grab it now, as I don't care whether it moves to 208 or 204 (although I see this going off around 208 or 209), I am taking it now as the juice is low of the 206...

Milwaukee/Portland Over 206, laying $101 to win $100 ...

GL...

A standard play would be to take the Bucks in this spot, too, as PORT has their first home game after a 7-game road trip...The Bucks have covered 7 straight...Most streaks of this nature end at 7...The Spurs did have a C8 in early FEB...So I am torn on the Side as I should ride this Cover Streak till it ends and then once it does I can take a chart-play as the reversal happens (most of the time)...Although to me, with PORT 3-8 ATS since the All-Star break, it is take MILW or don't play this one...

passing on Dal/Den Under 2H...

Both teams shot great in the 1H, but the Pace is out of this world...

start looking for Denver overs now that Nene has been traded AND now that Wilson Chandler has been added as the Nuggets are looking to push the ball now...

So that is another reason I am not taking this Under...

Monday, March 19, 2012

taking GS 2H...

With the Bos/Atl Over coming in, my record on the season is now 60-40-4, as recorded on the Tracking Site that tracks my plays: Link

Pretty easy math there -- 60% on the year...

Anyway, I am going to take the Warriors in the 2H since it is Chris Mullin night as they are retiring his number right now...

Well, that is one reason, but the main reason is the disparity in FG% shooting for both teams which I expect (or hope) returns to the mean a bit and if it does, then GS should be able to lose this game by 9 or less which gets me a "W"...

Golden State Warriors -4.5, laying $100 to win $105...

GL...

passing on ORL 2H...

Doesn't qualify as a play, but the value is there...

I am not taking it though...

I am going to need OT in the Boston/Atlanta game as I just looked at the score and see they have scored a total of 10 points in the last 6 minutes after they were on their way to an over the first 5+ minutes of the 3Q...Brutal offensive output...Glad I am still at work and not watching that masonry session...

Bos/Atl 2H Over...

Qualifies as a play criteria-wise, but I am a little wary of it as the Pace is borderline...Shooting %'s will have to rise in the 2H and the TO's will have to subside...

Boston/Atlanta Over 89, 2H, laying $105 to win $100...

GL...

Monday look...

One trendy game that I am not taking...I will pass on game lines tonight and stalk for 2H plays...

The game that stood out was BOS at ATL...

Atlanta 9-2-1 ATS on the back-end of back-to-backs this season to lead the league, while Boston is 0-4 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not, which, although I didn't look, I will assume this is probably worst in the league...

Normally I'd jump on Atlanta here, especially with BOS on the 6th game of an 8-game Road trip...But the C's have 2 days off after tonight, so Doc Rivers can play his starters extended minutes if he chooses to go after the "W" as NY and MILW are suddenly breathing down their necks for the 7th and 8th seeds in the East...And with ATL shooting 50% last night, that makes me a little wary because ATL is 16th in the league in FG% and with BOS being 4th in FG% against, I see a potentially big drop-off for ATL tonight in FG%...Not to mention it's a chart-play now to fade ATL in this spot since they didn't cover their last time out in this situational spot...

Anyway...I am waiting for 2H plays tonight...

Sunday, March 18, 2012

leaning to LAL 2H...

But not taking it...

I have probably watched more Lakers games than any other team in the league the last 4+ years (since I started working at the academy and not getting home till 10:00 or later every weeknight)...

And THAT is why I am not taking them here...I have seen them coast so many times in the 2H and get back-doored in the 4Q at Staples...

This doesn't even qualify as a play with my criteria, BUT, one thing I don't factor in for the 2H sides are turnovers...And the Lake-Show had a whopping 17 turnovers in the 1H tonight...So to me, based on the turnovers "returning to the mean" and with the 2H line "crossing zero" and you only need the Lakers to win by 7 (only "key" number in the NBA) in this game for a push on the 2H line, it is worth some consideration...But for me if the 2H number puts the winning margin at 7 for a push, I'll usually pass, but if 7 would get me a win, I would probably take it...

If you don't believe in 7 as a key number in the NBA, look at the final 3 games on Saturday night...All 3 were close games (I was flipping between all 3 of them on my DTV) and the winning margin was --- 7 --- for all 3 games...

So I will pass here but will be watching the 2H...

I have zero opinion on the Port/OKC game...

passing on Rockets 2H...

Doesn't qualify as a play, but it is somewhat close, and PHOE is adept at blowing 2H leads, so it is tempting, but HOU's short-handed run of late may be coming to a screeching halt here tonight...2 more games left tonight...

long day today...

I just got back from a baseball inter-squad scrimmage and will be leaving to play basketball in an hour...So I will miss the 1st five 2H opportunities...

I am probably going to pass on the game lines...Houston is still a quasi-chart play...I like Miami to win this game but that is a steep number to get over...

I won't be home till 9:00, so I will look over the last 3 games at halftime for an opportunity...

Sundays will be tough for me starting now (unless we get rain) because my local amateur baseball leagues are now underway...

Saturday, March 17, 2012

going to pass on late games 2H...

Nothing interesting here at the half...

If someone needed a late-night closing play of the night, I would say to take Utah -7, +100 because of the value, but criteria-wise, this doesn't qualify as a play so I will pass and start looking at Sunday's games...

15-3 last 18 plays...

I'll see if anything looks good for Sunday...

passing on CHAR 2H...

Pretty much qualifies as a play but I don't trust this team so I won't play this one...

later SAT looks...

I am going to pass on the Clips 2H (although -8 +117 is incredibly tempting -- all they gotta do is win the damn game), but I liked HOU to begin with as it was a quasi-chart play but didn't have the guts to play it...

Later looks:

I'll probably pass and just look at 2H opportunities, but I like the NY/Indy game Over and the Philly/Chi game Under...

NY started the season 10-1 to the Under on back-end-of-back-to-backs, but have now gone Over 2 straight back-enders (bit of a chart-play here) and NY has gone Over 6 straight...Indy started the year 6-3-1 to the Under on back-enders and now have gone Over 3 straight back-enders ...Only reason I am staying away is because this is a home-and-home setup and the default plays are to reverse who covered the game before and reverse the Over/Under from the night before, so the default plays are Indy and the under tonight, but I won't play a default play unless there are other criteria to back up the default play and I don't see much of anything here and in fact like NY a little and the Over more than a little...

CHI is a mini-chart play to the Under here after an Under last night following 5 straight Overs...Philly is 9-3 to the Under in back-enders...But CHI is 7-5 to the Over in back-enders...No Rose to me points to an Under against this Philly team anyway...

early afternoon game, so...

I am taking the Under...HOU over 8 in a row, but one was OT-aided, Clips Under 4 straight and have to work in some new faces and we have the early afternoon game where the default play is the Under, so Under me...

14-3 my last 17 plays...

Houston/LA Clippers under 192.5, laying $105 to win $100...

GL...

Friday, March 16, 2012

passing on GS 2H...

tempting to take the Warriors, but I'll ride it out with the 2 I have left on the board...

2H looks...

Phoenix Suns incredibly tempting at -6 +111 as they basically need to win this game by a bucket for to take this one as a nice plus-juice play...

Borderline play on the criteria, but plenty of value here as we have a cross-over zero situation and man, I have a feeling I'll be pissed for not taking this one, too...If I took the other 2 and was 5-0 on the night, I would definitely grab this one, but I will pass here, painfully, and see what happens...

3-0 on the night with 2 pending...

2H play...

Kicking myself for not taking Philly 2H and Atlanta 2H...

I probably should pass on this one and it would have been AWESOME to have OKC down 24 at the half, as they were very late in the 1H, but OKC went on a run in the last 2 minutes to cut it to 17 as I wished they could have saved that run fir the start of the 3Q...

3-0 start to the night although the GS over in major jeopardy as there are bricks being laid all over Oracle in the 1Q...

But I will take:

Oklahoma City Thunder -7, 2H, laying $100 to win $100...

GL...

I'll be kicking myself...

for quite a while if Philly covers this game line as I had a GIFT 2H play and passed only because I had Miami on the game line...

I'll never make that mistake again as that Philly 2H play was one of the best I have seen all year and I passed because I had Miami -3.5 for the game and they were up 27 at the half...

Both play were independent of each other and I should never assume a 27-point half-time lead is safe in the NBA on the road...

Damn...Sixers can still win this game...Lot of time left and they have all the momentum...

2H play...

Atlanta on the fringe of qualifying for a play but I will pass and instead take a shot at Indiana...Risky as the Knicks are playing tremendous thus far for their new coach, but, what the hey?...

Indiana Pacers -3, 2H, laying $100 to win $104...

GL...

2H look...

Wow, I am torn here...

Philly qualifies as a stone-cold 2H play here...I mean, it could not qualify more, really...But I already have the win locked up on the game line (barring something crazy), so I have to pass here, but boy, how can I not take Philly on the 2H line (shooting just 25% in the 1H)??...

Man, it's painful to pass on this one...

Playing a total...

Milwaukee/Golden State Over 208, laying $105 to win $100 -- Took this a little bit ago and the juice is rising quickly...This may go off around 210 or 211...Bucks' coach Scott Skiles has made it clear that he wants Milwaukee to push the ball now that they picked up Monta Ellis...The Bucks have already gone over 9 of their last 10 and the coach wants them to push it even more...Ok, thank you...GS has been very streaky with their totals, going over a few in a row and then Under a lot in a row, but they are on a bit of an Over streak, going Over 4 of their last 6...Oracle will be rockin' with Monta back in the house...I want to take this 1Q Over so bad, but GS has been super-flaky with their 1Q's, too, with a case in point being their last time out vs. BOS where they scored just 46 in the 1Q, but then they exploded with a 69 point 2Q...So I have to lay off the 1Q Over, which I am sure to regret around 11:05 p.m. EST tonight...I'll stick with the game total Over...

GL...

automatic play...

Portland Trailblazers +9, laying $106 to win $100 -- New coach angle again and ironically, PORT is involved with this angle 2 consecutive games...They lost by 42 on the day D'Antoni stepped down/was canned by the Knicks 2 days ago and now Nate McMillan has been canned by the Blazers after that debacle...Now I wonder about this one because Camby and Wallace have been traded away since that last game, too...But I ma seeing teams rise up in this situation as the Wizards traded 2 players away before last night's game yet still won...But this is the Bulls...Could be another slaughter...But the trends are all in PORT's favor...Coming off a 42-point loss and catching the Bulls in a let-down spot off a big win vs. Miami...Possibly a slight look-ahead with Philly coming in tomorrow, too, for the Bulls...CHI can win this by 20 by accident, but there are so many GOOD trends in Portland's favor here, that I cannot bypass this play, with the big one being the new coach's angle, which went 3-0 this past NFL season ATS and it is 3-0 this NBA season so far, I am fairly sure...

GL...

Friday play...

Well, as I often say after a tough loss in the NBA, "Tomorrow is another day", and tomorrow starts now as I will grab the Heat against my Sixers while they are plus-juice...

Miami Heat -3.5, laying $100 to win $103 -- I am not sure where this line will move...I assume it will go off around 4...Sure, Philly is motivated here for sure as Miami eliminated them from the playoffs last year and the Heat have blown Philly out twice this year...Although the last game, at Philly, was a little deceiving as that was a 4-point game entering the 4Q before Miami squashed Philly by 16 points in the 4Q to win by 20...I said on this blog before that game that Philly has match-up issues with the Heat...The Sixers are a poor man's Heat...Philly is very athletic and quick and plays great defense (#1 in the league in FG% allowed and PPG allowed), but Miami is 6th in FG% allowed...The Heat is just as athletic and quick as Philly is and probably even more so...To me, Philly isn't going to beat Miami playing their normal style, because Miami plays the same style and the Heat have the better horses...I have seen it already twice this season with a 21-point loss at Miami and the afore-mentioned 20-point loss at Philly...And yes, Philly has some serious revenge motivation here, but the Heat have lost 2 straight coming into this one and are highly motivated to end this little losing streak, so they have plenty of motivation themselves...Philly hasn't played well since their 18-7 start, going just 7-11 since then SU as they certainly have lost a lot of steam...Sure, they have beaten some tough teams, but they caught some of those teams in favorable spots, missing key players...Most of Philly's wins have come against inferior competition...As much as I love my Sixers and hate the Heat, money is money, and I never let my favorite teams get in the way of making some cash...

GL...

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Wow...

Dallas up 17 with 3:50 left (I only need a 6-point victory to win the bet) and the subs come in an blow it...Starters had to come back in and then Jason Terry makes an incredibly stupid foul for no reason to give Henderson a 3-point play on a lay-up and then Terry misses a FT right after that on the other end and the final ends up being a half-point loss...

Cake-walk win turns into a 1/2-point loss, but such is life in the NBA...Still 9-3 my last 12...

I'll take a shot with DAL 2H...

Doesn't really qualify criteria-wise, but I'll take the value:

Dallas Mavericks -11.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $100...

GL...

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

passing on Bos/GS 2H under...

This one I should take...But with the Heat struggling mightily against the Rose-less Bulls, it looks as though Miami will not cover the 2H line and after starting 3-0, I don't want to risk finishing 3-2 on the night...

But this one should stay Under in the 2H, it really should, although again, with the rash of Over recently, I am a bit gun-shy to pull the trigger on too many 2H unders right now...

passing on Det/Sac Under 2H...

Very fast Pace, which scares me off this one, not to mention the fact that we are having a rash of Overs lately (in case you haven't noticed) as shooting is improving, finally, after the Under dominated the first 7 to 8 weeks of the season in what I believe is unprecedented fashion (I'll have to check my database at some point, but I don't think we have ever had an opening of the season wave of Unders like we had this season...So the Overs have been coming and are coming as the Vegas lines aren't catching up fast enough...

So yet another reason for me to lay off this 2H Under, even though it's close enough for me to take a shot, criteria-wise...

Heat 2H...

7-2 last 3 days, including tonight...

Should have been 4-0 tonight as I laid off a strong chart-play with HOU...I should just end the night going 3-0, but cannot resist the Heat here...Still 4 late games, too...

Miami Heat -5, 2H, laying $102 to win $100...

GL...

LAL 2H...

Qualifies in every way imaginable...

Los Angeles Lakers -6, 2H, laying $100 to win $100...

GL

passing on PORT 2H...

They qualify as a play, but I have NY already on the game line, so that's the only reason I am passing as I don't see the Knicks being outscored by 20 or more in the 2H...

HOU was a pretty strong chart-play tonight, but I passed because of their emotional win last night and they are a 4 of 5 situation at home tonight, which normally isn't good for the home team...We'll see if it was the right choice to lay off it or not in about 90 minutes...

2 automatic plays...

New coach angle which I believe is still undefeated (NFL and NBA seasons) tonight with D'Antoni getting canned...

New York Knicks -6, laying $106 to win $100...

And Orlando in a major let-down spot after beating the Heat in OT and SA is 7-3 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not...

San Antonio Spurs -7.5, laying $105 to win $100...

GL...

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

1 play...

Cleveland Cavaliers -4, laying $106 to win $100 -- A chart-play to fade Toronto...Missed the last one, but I'll get on the chart-play train this time...

This is the only one that jumped out at me although I kinda like GS/Sac Over...

GL...

Monday, March 12, 2012

2H looks...

Not taking this but the Pace dictates a 2H Under in this Celtics/Clips game...

2H looks...

I was going to jump all over the T'Wolves/Suns Under in the 2H, but the FG%'s aren't as high as I thought they would be, which tells me the pace is very quick, and it is...

I was going to take PHOE 2H, too, but I already have them on the game line, so no need to, but as badly as I want to take the 2H under, I just cannot pull the trigger on it...Just hoping this DET/Utah 2H under can somehow hold on, but I don't think it will...

And another reason I was thinking about the Suns 2H under is because I have been watching a LOT of Suns game since the All-Star break and they have really slowed the pace down quite a bit in the 2H...So even though I promised myself not to pass on any plays I see starting tonight (because the plays I pass on seem to be hitting about 80% the last month), I am going to pass on this one...

2H under...

Gotta take it as these teams shot a tad over 55% combined in the 1H, scored 10 points in the final minute of the half and the Pace doesn't support the Over...

Detroit/Utah under 98, 2H, laying $110 to win $100...

GL...

going to try and take some game sides & totals this week...

Been starting to heat up on game lines so time to play a few:

Milwaukee/New Jersey over 198, laying $108 to win $100...


New York/Chicago over 199, laying $100 to win $102...


Washington/San Antonio over 206, laying $110 to win $100...


Phoenix Suns -3.5, laying -$109 to win $100...

GL...

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Clips 2H...

Probably regret this one as the 2H line takes the "win number" below 7 (it's 5 for a push 4 for a win), but I'll take a shot due to the disparity in shooting % (GS 60%, LAC 37%) and with GS on a back-ender...

Los Angeles Clippers -8, 2H, laying $102 to win $100...

GL...

Saturday, March 10, 2012

2H plays...

Toronto Raptors -5, 2H, laying $100 to win $104...


Miami Heat -8, 2H, laying $110 to win $100...

GL...

OKC 1Q...

OKC should kill this team, but CHAR will probably win the 4Q and have a chance at a back-door cover...OKC has been fast out of the gate for the most part against inferior competition...

Oklahoma City Thunder -5, 1Q, laying $110 to win $100...

juice is rising fast...

GL...

Friday, March 9, 2012

Port 2H...

Gotta take it...

Portland Trailblazers -6.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $104...

GL...

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

OKC 2H...

Oklahoma City -8. 2H, laying $110 to win $100...

GL...

More...

First 2 plays off to bad starts in the 2H...

Miami Heat -4.5, 3Q, laying $110 to win $100...

GL...

2H plays...

Boston Celtics -3.5, 2H, Laying $100 to win $106...


Houston Rockets -4, 2H, laying $101 to win $100...

Tempted to take the Wizards -1 in the 4Q, but they aren't down enough...

GL...

2H alert...

Philly obliterating Boston in the 1H...I am hoping for a 30-point halftime deficit, but no matter, this is looking like a 2H play here, barring a 10-0 run at the end of the half by Boston...

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

LAL 2H...

Late here as it is crazy, but I took...

Los Angeles Lakers -6, 2H, laying $100 to win $104...

GL...

Monday, March 5, 2012

2H plays...

Late with these. but I started typing and customers came to the counter and I got busy...

Cleveland Cavaliers -4, 2H, laying $100 to win $100...


Washington Wizards -4, 2H, laying $107 to win $100...

GL...

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Spurs 2H...

I'll take a shot with:

San Antonio Spurs -6.5, 2H, laying $100 to win $101...

GL...

Heat 2H...

Let's do it again...

Miami Heat -5, 2H, laying $100 to win $105...

GL...

Friday, March 2, 2012

Clips/Suns Over...

LA Clippers/Phoenix Over 96, 2H, laying $100 to win $100...Pace isn't bad at all for an Over...PHOE couldn't hit the ocean from the floor (28%) or the free-throw line (40%) in the 1H but I look for that to change in the 2H...


Liking the Kings/Lakers Under 2H, too, but may pass on that one...They may not bother slowing it down...

GL...

Clips/Suns Over...

LA Clippers/Phoenix Over 96, 2H, laying $100 to win $100...Pace isn't bad at all for an Over...PHOE couldn't hit the ocean from the floor (28%) or the free-throw line (40%)...


Liking the Kings/Lakers Under 2H, too, but may pass on that one...They may not bother slowing it down...

GL...

Heat 2H...

Juice and Line moving up quickly...

Miami Heat -5.5, 2H, laying $111 to win $100...

GL...

Mavs 2H...

Dallas Mavericks -8, 2H, laying $100 to win $104 -- Doesn't qualify as a play criteria-wise, but we have a good situation with the 1H deficit and the line, so I will take the value...

GL...

If I would bet this 2H...

I would take Portland -1.5 in the 4Q...

Really mad I got busy at work and missed the PHOE 2H line...

So I will pass here, but PORT should cover this 4Q line...

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Fair or Foul?...

I have seen some unfair scheduling situations in the NBA over the past 3 decades, but tonight might take the cake...

The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing their 3rd game in 3 nights (all on the Road) at Phoenix, and the Suns come into this one with 7 days rest...

Now sure, Minny had 2 games at Staples, so there was no travel involved between games there, and it's only 359 miles from LA to Phoenix...So the miles traveled is NOT significant for this 3 road games in 3 days stretch, but still, to get an opponent with 7 days rest is a bit ridiculous...

Now teams playing their 3rd game in 3 nights vs. rested teams this season are 6-6 ATS, but the closest game to tonight's game (in terms of multiple days rest vs. a 3-in-3) is when Utah had their 3rd game in 3 nights at OKC and OKC had 3 days rest and the Thunder blew them out by 26...Although we don't have the disparity in class with these 2 opponents tonight like we did on 2/14 with Utah at OKC...

PHOE as a 2H play may be better as we saw several teams (CLE, DAL, MIN) in back-enders immediately after the All-Star break falter last night in the 2H against teams with extended rest...

So I am debating on whether to just take PHOE on the game line or wait for a 2H play...

-----

NOTE: I am going to pass on playing the game line...PHOE had a player's meeting 2 days ago, so I generally like taking teams in their next game out after a player's meeting, but Coach Rick Adelman of Minnesota is just too damn good a coach...None of his players have played 30 minutes in either of the last 2 games, so his players are still relatively fresh...So I will pass on the game line and wait and see if a 2H play develops...

Fair or Foul?...

I have seen some unfair scheduling situations in the NBA over the past 3 decades, but tonight might take the cake...

The Minnesota Timberwolves are playing their 3rd game in 3 nights (all on the Road) at Phoenix, and the Suns come into this one with 7 days rest...

Now sure, Minny had 2 games at Staples, so there was no travel involved between games there, and it's only 359 miles from LA to Phoenix...So the miles traveled is NOT significant for this 3 road games in 3 days stretch, but still, to get an opponent with 7 days rest is a bit ridiculous...

Now teams playing their 3rd game in 3 nights vs. rested teams this season are 6-6 ATS, but the closest game to tonight's game (in terms of multiple days rest vs. a 3-in-3) is when Utah had their 3rd game in 3 nights at OKC and OKC had 3 days rest and the Thunder blew them out by 26...Although we don't have the disparity in class with these 2 opponents tonight like we did on 2/14 with Utah at OKC...

PHOE as a 2H play may be better as we saw several teams (CLE, DAL, MIN) in back-enders falter last night in the 2H against rested teams...

So I am debating on whether to just take PHOE on the game line or wait for a 2H play...