No Ginobili or Duncan tonight, too...

Just a FYI as I thought Popovich might sit one of them (or maybe both), but he did me one better and is sitting both...Popovich loves doing this after a stretch of games like this (7 games in 10 days) and I think he relishes the attention he gets for doing this on the night of a TNT game where, Ernie, Kenny, Shaq and Chuck will be talking about this all night...

Also, I did place an additional bet on GS -6.5 points, taking GS with these 2 SA players and Parker out, on top of my GS -3 bet, but I didn't bet a full unit so I won't count it on my record at the end of the night...

Thursday...

3-1, +$190

Golden State Warriors -3, laying $110 to win $100 -- Ok, somehow I just lost half my write-up when I hit submit so I have to type this over again...But, here we go again, maybe a shorter version this time:

Two words: Andre Iguodala...A very under-rated player in this league...Look at how bad, how quickly, my 76ers went from a medicore team barely making the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference to just flat-out terrible in just the 1 1/4 seasons ago since AI went to Denver last season and now to GS this season...Iguodala returned from injury last time out for GS and voila, the Warriors absolutely blew out the Pelicans...Sure, the final score shows an 11-point win, but GS was up at least 24 in the 4th quarter when I had the game on (NBA Package, DirecTv, a must for any NBA fan) and it was garbage time that entire quarter...Now if you think I am partial towards former 76ers' players or the 76ers in general, you are badly mistaken as I bet or pick against Philly quite regularly and have done so for decades whenever they stink...But you may have heard the phrase "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure"...Well, I don't buy into every damn number or newfangled stat that is out there these days, but I do like this stat: "The Warriors are plus 15.6 points per 100 possessions with Iguodala on the court, No. 1 among players who average at least 30 minutes per game."....And you may look at the boxscore for the Pelicans game and say, "Well, he only had 2 points in 17+ minutes", but I will point out to you that you missed a very important number on Iggy's line and that is the plus/minus number and he was a +20, second best in the game behind only Stephen Curry...I am also kind of hoping that Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich maybe sits Ginobili or Duncan tonight, but that would be a bonus for me and I don't really expect that with Parker out...But, the Spurs are coming off a hard-fought win vs. the Suns last night at PHOE where they got a big 4Q from Ginobili to earn that win and this is a back-end of a back-to-back and their 7th game in 10 days...Speaking of games at Phoenix, Warrior's coach Mark Jackson called his team out after a loss at PHOE 2 games ago as he challenged their focus and effort for 48 minutes and they responded with a resounding win vs. the Pelicans last time out...I expect GS to go on a little bit of a run now with Iggy back, which allows Harrison Barnes to come off the bench again (as he took Iggy's starting spot while he was hurt) and GS needs all the bench help they can get as I believe they are ranked 28th in the league in bench scoring...And lastly, I have a mini chart-play on GS to boot...Oh, and I forgot to mention that GS has a small revenge spot here as the Spurs did beat them at Oracle on 11/8 this season and GS has had some success at Oracle vs. SA dating back to last season...

GL...

update to rankings...

LeBron is playing so Miami is my #2 Side now, not Indiana...

Wednesday play...

2-1, +$90

Minnesota Timberwolves -2, laying $110 to win $100 -- I HATE to be fading the best and hottest team in the league right now and I generally don't fade teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights while on the Road that 4th game, but PORT has had 2 very, very difficult games in the the last 3 days as they erased a double-digit 4Q deficit at Detroit and beat them in OT with a Lillard buzzer-beater and then Lillard did it again last night at CLE as the Blazers won at the buzzer in a hard-fought back-and-forth game against the Cavaliers...And now they face the T'Wolves...Minny has been a good 1st-half-of-the-season team (the past few years when Kevin Love is healthy) and even though I think they are under-achieving slightly this season, tonight is a good spot for them to step up and beat the best team in the league (right now) on their home floor...

GL...

Also, if Lebron doesn't play, I like Indy and the Under, if LeBron does play, I like Miami and I will still pick the Under...I like my top 4 totals a lot and if Lebron doesn't play, I like my top 5 totals...Knicks under a solid play because Tyson Chandler returns tonight while OJ Mayo is out for MILW...Sac/Atl under good play because SAC is having issues with the offense getting Ruday Gay involved...Port/Min over, well, PORT is playing, need I say more?...NO/LAC over as there is a strong chart-play to the Over for the Clips as they have kicked their offense in gear big-time the last 2 games...

Sides:

1) Min, 2) Ind, 3) Was, 4) Char, 5) Det, 6) Atl, 7) Chi, 8) NY, 9) Dal, 10) SA, 11) Utah, 12) NO

Totals:

1) Atl un, 2) Min ov, 3) NY un, 4) NO ov, 5) Ind un, 6) Dal un, Char un, 8) Chi un, 9) Det un, 10) Was ov, 11) Utah un, 12) SA un

Tuesday...

I actually like a lot of plays tonight, so we'll see how well I am (or am not) seeing it right now in the NBA as I have been heating up with the exception of that last total play...

Cleveland Cavaliers +4.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I also made a small play on the moneyline for CLE...The Cavs have finally been playing up to expectations the past 2 weeks after playing horribly the first 5 weeks...They have won 4 straight games at home against 2 good teams (DEN & LAC) and 2 other teams that were supposed to be good this year (CHI & NY)...This is an odd spot here to fade Portland, too...Portland is the last team in the league that has not had a NC (not cover) 2 games in a row this season...Tonight starts Week 8 of the season...So they have gone 7 weeks without ever Not Covering 2 games in a row...Indy was right with them until they lost to DET last night, so the Pacers have their FIRST NC2 streak of the year now at the end of Week 7...Every team but 3 in the league had a NC2 by the end of Week 3...PORT, Indy and (surprisingly) PHOE made it through 5 weeks without a NC2...I don't have time to check my database to see how many teams in the past 30 years made it into Week 8 without a NC2, but I doubt it is very many...This looks like a good spot to me for PORT to get their first NC2 as Cleveland is playing much better basketball the past 2 weeks as evidenced by their comeback against the Heat in Miami their last time out as they erased a 19-point deficit on the road to come back and take the lead in the 4th Quarter against the Heat until Miami won the game in the final 2 minutes...

GL...

Tuesday's Rankings:

Sides:

1) Cle, 2) Den, 3) LAL, 4) Sac, 5) NO

Totals:

1) Sac un, 2) LAL un, 3) Cle ov, 4) NO un, 5) Den un

Play #2 for the season...

Houston/Sacramento Over 213.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- The recent trade for Rudy Gay set up a new starting lineup that has Isaiah Thomas as the starting point guard now...And Thomas LOVES to run...He has started the last 3 games and scored 24, 20 & 29 points and the 29 came in Rudy Gay's first game as he couldn't play until all 7 players in that trade passed a physical...All 3 games were Overs and the Kings have gone Over 5 straight games now...And Houston?...Yeah, last time I checked, they also like to run and gun and welcome a fast PACE and oh by the way, the Rockets are 2nd in the league in PPG (and were 1st in PPG until Saturday night when PORT scored 139 vs. my Sixers to overtake the Rockets to move up to #1 in that category by a whisker)...I don't expect this game to be as easy an Over as the Port/Phi game was Saturday night, but I do expect this game to get into the 220's...

GL...

First play of the NBA 2013-14 season...

Indiana Pacers -3.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- This is the Pacers' SuperBowl tonight...This game has been circled on their calendar since the NBA schedule was released...And now we catch a perfect storm of strong trends all falling the Pacers' way tonight...Not only is this a Statement Game for the Pacers, it is also a revenge game as the Heat eliminated them from the playoffs last season and this is their first meeting since that elimination AND we have the Pacers off their worst loss of the season, getting trounced by the Thunder on Sunday, so it's a strong bounce-back spot...Everything points to the Pacers winning this game by 7 to 10 points tonight...

GL...

Denver a 28-point favorite in Week 6...

I don't know how many people remember the old betting tickets of the mid to late 1970s that people used to pass around at work and you'd have to pick a minimum of 4 games against the spread in college or Pro football and if you won all 4, I think you won $10 for every $1 bet on the ticket...My dad used to bring those home and I remember being fascinated by these things as I was always hell-bent on trying to win $10 for a $1 play...I was just a kid back then...

I was 10 years old in 1976 when the expansion Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-12) went to Pittsburgh (8-4) to play the 2-time defending SuperBowl champion Steelers...

And I am 99% sure that line was 28 points...When I heard on SportsCenter earlier tonight that this Jags/Broncos line opened at 28 points and was the biggest line ever, I immediately flashed on that ticket from 1976...I don't know what the "official" Vegas line opened at or went off at, but I remember seeing a 28 on that ticket...But considering those tickets were printed on Monday or Tuesday and passed around on Tuesday or Wednesday, I think it is safe to say that was an Opening line...

And the Steelers won that game 42-0 and it wasn't even that close as Terry Bradshaw didn't even play the 4th quarter as it was 42-0 after 3 quarters...

So ok, the Jags aren't an expansion team, but they sure are playing like one...And the Broncos aren't a 2-time defending SuperBowl champ, but they sure are playing like one...

Just saying...

Final Game of Year...

So of course worst of both worlds for me as the heat win but don't cover...I was driving home from work when it was halftime and missed the 2H line, which, of course, Miami covered...

I don't see how San Antonio recovers from that loss...With 28 seconds left, it was OVER...LeBron bricks a 3, but they get the offensive rebound and LeBron nails the three with 20 seconds left to cut it to 2 and then a 2nd crucial missed FT for SA by Leonard (Ginobili missed one with about 37 seconds left) left the door open for Miami to tie it and again, it was an offensive rebound that led to the Ray Allen game-tying 3 and then it was off to OT...

But, if any team can bounce back from a heart-breaking loss like that, I guess it is the Spurs...problem is that Miami played poorly TUE night and the Spurs didn't put them away...I think the Heat will play well tonight and blow them out...I am not touching the Game Line though, I'll wait and see if the 2H line has any value...

Final game bet of the year...

Obviously, I have been very dormant for months as I just noticed my last post was in March...Well that's because I am involved in 3 area local baseball leagues and March 11 was the week I started doing the schedule for 2 local leagues (1 with a lot of teams in it) and I have been swamped ever since...

I still have been playing 2H plays off and on the past 3 months...

But I have one last play for 2012-13:

Miami Heat -7, laying $105 to win $100 -- The line is not over the only "key" number in the NBA, which is 7 (right on it, obviously), so I am taking the Heat...The heat have been money this postseason in bounce-back games as they are 5-0 SU & ATS, winning every one of these games by double-digits...And they seem especially potent after getting blown out, which, is what pretty much happened Sunday night...I'll ride the Heat bounce-back angle one final time this postseason, as I expect this series to go to a Game 7...

GL...

Monday rankings...

Sides:

1) OKC, 2) Phoe, 3) NY, 4) Det, 5) Phi

Totals:

1) OKC un, 2) Phoe un, 3) Det un, 4) Phi un, 5) NY ov

Sunday rankings...

Sides:

1) Mia, 2) Chi, 3) Phi, 4) Tor, 5) Bos, 6) Port, 7) Min, 8) Det, 9) Milw

Totals:

1) Bos un, 2) Chi un, 3) Mia un, 4) Tor ov, 5) Port un, 6) Phi un, 7) Det un, 8) Min un, 9) Milw un

Saturday rankings...

Sides:

1) Char, 2) Atl, 3) NO, 4) Phoe, 5) Min, 6) GS, 7) NY

Totals:

1) Phoe ov, 2) GS ov, 3) NO ov, 4) Min ov, 5) Char un, 6) NY un, 7) Atl ov

Friday rankings...

Sides:

1) Port, 2) Orl, 3) Phoe, 4) Phi, 5) Tor, 6) GS, 7) Atl, 8) Chi, 9) Det, 10) Cle, 11) Bkn, 12) OKC

Totals:

1) GS ov, 2) Bkn un, 3) Port un, 4) Cle un, 5) Chi un, 6) Phoe un, 7) Tor ov, 8) Orl un, 9) OKC un, 10) Phi un, 11) Det un, 12) Atl ov

THUR looks...

2 of the best teams in the league in "check-mark games" going tonight on TNT...

Denver is 9-3 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not and OKC is 8-2-1 in this same situational spot this season...

So obviously, these 2 teams are "in play" tonight...I am not taking either on the game line, but will wait and look at 2H opportunities...

Sides:

1) Den, 2) OKC

Totals:

1) OKC un, 2) Den un

THUR rankings...

Sides:

1) Mia, 2) LAC

Totals:

1) Mia un, 2) LAC un

As the season is exactly 2/3 of the way finished, I think I have one more run left in me this season, but we'll see...Time constraints may keep that from happening, but if time does permit, then I will post whenever possible...

OKC tonight...

Oklahoma City -6, laying $100 to win $104 -- Tell me this isn't a trap game with this line...To me, though, it is a statement game for OKC...Double-revenge for the loss at MIA earlier in the season and the loss suffered from Miami in the Finals last June...OKC will win the game...My only worry is MIA sneaking under this number, but I honestly believe this is a double-digit statement win where OKC wins this by 15 to 20...If OKC cannot win this game, then they have no shot when they play Miami again in the Finals this year...No shot, barring Miami injuries because this game clearly aligns for OKC to lay down the Thunder and cool off the Heat tonight...

GL...

Jarrett Jack is playing...

Jarrett Jack is playing for GS...

Tuesday rankings and play...

Sides:

1) GS, 2) Sac, 3) Phoe, 4) Tor, 5) Utah, 6) Mia

Totals:

1) Sac ov, 2) Mia ov, 3) Tor ov, 4) Utah un, 5) Phoe un, 6) GS un

Play:

Golden State Warriors -4, laying $108 to win $100 -- Revenge game here...Pure and simple, short turnaround revenge game between 2 good teams of fairly equal ability, one of the stronger if not the strongest trends out there in the NBA...The Rockets humiliated GS by 31 exactly a week ago in Houston and now they play at GS tonight...The Warriors went on to lose 3 more in a row after that loss at HOU, so this is a hungry team, currently on a 4-game losing streak, their longest of the season...They also have had 2 days rest for this game after their 4-game road trip, so they have had an extra day to prepare for this game...Harden hurt his knee late in the SAC game on Sunday, but did make the shoot-around earlier today so he'll play, but I am hoping he is not 100%...Bogut will play for GS and Jarrett Jack is questionable, and Jack is the key piece here for the Warriors...he didn't play the last 3 games, all losses and NCs for GS as he has been huge for this team all season off the bench...If he plays tonight, this will be a 2-unit play for me...

GL...

Monday rankings...

I will have a play for sure on TUE (good situational spot)...For those who have followed me for a while, you should know who I am taking already for tomorrow...

Sides:

1) Bkn, 2) SA, 3) Char, 4) Phi, 5) Dal, 6) Min, 7) Was, 8) NO

Totals:

1) SA ov, 2) Phi un, 3) Bkn ov, 4) Min ov, 5) Dal ov, 6) Was un, 7) NO un, 8) Char un

Thursday rankings...

Sides:

1) Den, 2) Bos

Totals:

1) Bos un, 2) Den ov

Wednesday early glance...

Houston score 140 on TUE and the game total hit 249, so this is basically an automatic Under here at Miami...Taking the Houston team Total Under might be a better play than the game total under in case Miami goes wild on them, but HOU tied an NBA record with 23 three-pointers TUE night and shot 57% from 3-land and I would expect those numbers to drop dramatically on WED at Miami...

Total is at 206.5 but this will go up, so just wait, wait and wait some more and let's see if the public can bet this thing up to 209 or 210 and then take the Under...

Miami is 6th in the league in FG% allowed but they pick their spots in when they decide to actually play defense...I am hoping they show up defensively tonight because I like this under...

I like the Heat to trounce them, too...

Same goes with GS at OKC...

212 total posted...Coach Jackson of GS won't like giving up 140 and I expect GS to make adjustments on dig in a little bit tonight on defense...Of course, you have a well-oiled OKC offensive machine to deal with, so that is easier said than done...

With all of this said, OKC is 3rd in the league and GS is 4th in the league in FG% allowed, so to see a 212 total on the board is a bit surprising to me, BUT, not shocking as these teams can certainly score...

I like this Under, too...

Tuesday rankings...

Sides:

1) Ind, 2) Hou, 3) LAL, 4) Phoe, 5) Den

Totals:

1) Hou ov, 2) Den ov, 3) Phoe un, 4) LAL un, 5) Ind ov

Totals rankings...

Totals:

1) Ind un, 2) OKC ov, 3) Orl un, 4) Min ov, 5) Was un, 6) Det ov, 7) Mia un, 8) Sac un

Monday Sides rankings...

Sides:

1) Ind, 2) OKC, 3) Min, 4) Mia, 5) Was, 6) Det, 7) Orl, 8) Sac

Sunday rankings...

Sides:

1) LAC, 2) Det, 3) Mia

Totals:

1) LAC un, 2) Mia un, 3) Det un

Saturday total rankings...

Totals:

1) Cha ov, 2) Was un, 3) NO ov, 4) Sac ov, 5) Cle ov, 6) Atl ov, 7) Phoe un, 8) Orl ov, 9) Port un

Saturday rankings...

Sides:

1) Atl, 2) Port, 3) NO, 4) Sac, 5) Was, 6) Orl, 7) Phoe, 8) Cle, 9) Char

Thursday rankings...

Super-busy at work past 2 days, Friday might be a problem, too...

Sides:

1) Dal, 2) Memp

Totals:

1) Dal ov, 2) Memp ov

Monday rankings...

Sides:

1) Hou, 2) GS, 3) Orl, 4) Chi, 5) Ind, 6) Was, 7) Memp

Totals:

1) Ind un, 2) Hou ov, 3) Memp un, 4) Chi un, 5) Orl un, 6) Was un, 7) GS un

Sunday Totals...

Totals:

1) Bos un, 2) Phoe ov, 3) LAL un, 4) Orl un, 5) NY ov, 6) LAC un, 7) NO ov

Sunday Sides...

Sides:

1) LAL, 2) Orl, 3) NY, 4) Bos, 5) Phoe, 6) NO, 7) LAC

Totals shortly...

Saturday Totals...

Totals:

1) Hou ov, 2) Utah un, 3) Phoe ov, 4) Cle un, 5) GS ov, 6) Phi ov, 7) Sac ov, 8) Port un, 9) Was un, 10) Cha un

Saturday Sides rankings...

Will never bet any games after such a hectic day with minimal capping...Took the 3 games that stood out at first glance and went 0-3...No plays today, will search for 2H plays...

Quickly, though, HOU is a HUGE chart-play tonight...Just ended a NC9 last night, now it should reverse itself...Speaking of which WASH is on a C9 -- when does this end?...NC9 longest NC streak of season ends last night now a C9 on the line tonight, longest Cover streak...SAC had a NC7 end last week and DAL had a C7 end last night...

Sides:

1) Hou, 2) Phoe, 3) Phi, 4) Utah, 5) GS, 6) Was, 7) Port, 8) Sac, 9) Cle, 10) Cha

Totals to come...

Friday plays...

Day from hell at work today...

Left work at 2 a.m. last night, but was still sending emails out for work till 7:45 a.m. and then I am right back at work today at noon after 3 hours of sleep and it was nuts in here and this is the first moment I have had to even look at the games...

Bkn/Memp Under jumps out a bit...So does Dallas and Utah...

I DID play these 3 games...

Bkn/Memp Under 177
Dallas -2
Utah +5

GL...

Thursday rankings...

Sides:

1) Orl, 2) NY, 3) Phoe

Totals:

1) Orl ov, 2) Phoe un, 3) NY un

Thought about NY, but am passing as BOS has lost 4 straight and yeah, I expect Melo to have a fairly big game, but without Melo, I think the Knicks potentially have some match-up problems with a BOS team who should be motivated to end this losing streak...I have to pass, but will be watching the game...

Thursday play...

Late getting to the small Board today...

Toronto/Orlando over 199, laying 100 to win $102 -- Toronto 6 Overs in a row and ORL 14 of their last 15 Over...Toronto also Over 3 straight in back-enders...I'll roll with that...Over me...

GL...

Looking at other 2 games now...May or may not have a play, or I may look for 2H plays...

Wednesday play...

Busy day, might not have rankings, but I already played the game I talked about 4 days ago:

Phoenix Suns +3, laying $77 to win $75
Phoenix Suns Pick, laying $25 to win $32 --  New coach angle, which is 10-1 ATS the last 2 seasons in the NBA/NFL, and the one loss was the D'Antoni situation where he was signed, but was injured and didn't take over until almost a week later...Also doesn't include  4-0 in the NFL this season with the Chuck-Strong situation (twice, leaving and then coming back) and 2 deaths in the NFL where teams rose up to win as Dogs...PHOE has had 5 days to prepare for this game...

GL...

I'll see if anything else stands out...

Tuesday rankings...

Sides:

1) Bos, 2) OKC, 3) Phi, 4) Det

Totals:

1) Det ov, 2) OKC ov, 3) Bos ov, 4) Phi ov

No plays right now...

I am considering betting my top 2 totals and I'll pass on the Bos over...Will be looking at 2H plays...

OKC is 5-1-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...The game they  didn't cover, they won, the push was a loss on their 1st game of the season...

LAC over 4 straight on back-enders...

Orl over 13 of 14...

Early MLK Day play...

2-2 yesterday...

Indiana/Memphis under 173, laying $108 to win $100 -- Both of these teams are just sick when it comes to Unders...Indy started the season with 10 of their first 11 games Under in regulation time and have gone under 11 of their last 14...Memphis has gone Under 11 of their last 13 and 25 of their last 31, which is just insane, including going OT their last time out and STILL staying under a 175 total...So should I be scared of a 173 total?...Nope... Especially when we have the afternoon angle to boot for this game...Under me...

GL...

More to come on Monday...

Sunday rankings...

If Kobe doesn't hit that 3 with 1:30 left, the game stays Under as that 3 got LAL just close enough to get a foul-fest going in the final minute...So be it...

Sides:

1) Den, 2) Bos, 3) Dal, 4) Tor

Totals:

1) Tor un, 2) Dal ov, 3) Bos un, 4) Den ov

I like most of these games, sides and totals, tonight...

I am going to play Boston and Dallas (smaller than Denver, though as I like the Nuggets quite a bit tonight)...

Reasoning for Boston over Detroit is that the Pistons are returning from a game in London on THUR and I wonder if they have had enough time to adjust...And Dallas is playing MUSH better now...

Sunday plays...

3-1 on Saturday...

2 for Sunday...

LA Lakers/Toronto under 204, laying $105 to win $100 -- Afternoon Under angle here, not to mention the Lakers have gone Under 5 straight and I think they are finally realizing they need to play more half-court sets and slow it down more to win...

Denver Nuggets -1, laying $100 to win $101 -- Short-revenge angle as the Thunder just buried Denver by 20 earlier in the week at OKC...Nuggets off a home loss to Washington and the Thunder coming off a tough OT-win at Dallas on Friday...Playing the reliable short-revenge spot between 2 good teams and all we basically need is a Denver win to cash and I'll take this spot with this spread 100 times out of 100...

GL...

Saturday rankings...

Sides:

1) GS, 2) Memp, 3) Hou, 4) Was, 5) Milw, 6) Cle, 7) Char, 8) Atl

Totals:

1) Memp un, 2) Atl un, 3) GS un, 4) Char un, 5) Hou un, 6) Cle ov, 7) Milw un, 8) Was un

I am fairly sure that I am betting my top 3 Sides and top Total...if I have time to post the 4 plays with reasoning, I will...

GL...

Interesting play shaping up for WED...

Phoenix coach Alvin Gentry and the Suns mutually agreed to part ways Friday so we will have yet another new coach angle coming up, but not till WED, when Phoenix plays next...

Could be an interesting trend match-up because they play Sacramento, who currently are on a NC7 streak, playing CHAR tonight and then at New Orleans Monday afternoon...Assuming the NC streak ends with either one of those games, the potential for a very strong chart-play to take SAC could happen WED...Or, if SAC doesn't cover the next 2, then they'll take a NC9 into that game...

The Suns will have 5 days rest going into that game, so whoever the new coach will be (or the interim coach)   will have time to prepare for this one...

As I have stated on my blog many times, the new coach angle is a strong one across multiple sports as it is 3-0 SU & ATS the last 2 seasons in the NFL and it was 4-0 ATS last year and is 3-1 ATS this season in the NBA although the Mike D'Antoni Lakers' 2nd coaching change from the interim coach Bernie Bickerstaff was weird, because D'Antoni was on crutches and could not even take the sidelines to coach until November 20th, 6 days after he was hired and the Lakers did win the game against the Nets by 5 but did not cover the 6 1/2 point spread...

So 10-1 ATS the last 2 seasons between the NFL and NBA...

SAC plays at PHOE on Wednesday...

Friday's rankings...

Sides:

1) Dal, 2) Was, 3) Bkn, 4) Sac, 5) GS, 6) Hou, 7) Phi, 8) Char, 9) Bos

Totals:

1) GS un, 2) Sac un, 3) Cha un, 4) Bkn ov, 5) Dal un, 6) Was ov, 7) Hou ov, 8) Phi ov, 9) Bos un

Took a couple days off, like some plays tonight...Will stalk for 2H plays, but I will probably bet Dallas...Fairly sure of it...

Tuesday rankings...

Sides:

1) Hou, 2) Phi, 3) Char, 4) Tor, 5) Port, 6) Milw

Totals:

1) Hou ov, 2) Phi ov, 3) Char ov, 4) Tor un, 5) Milw un, 6) Port un

I think I will wait for 2H plays...I want to take Houston as the Clips rose up without Chris Paul last night, which is typical for teams rising up for 1 game, but these teams usually lose the next one...But I don't want to bet against the Clips...

Monday Totals rankings...

Totals:

1) Cle ov, 2) Orl ov, 3) Memp un, 4) Bos un, 5) Dal un, 6) Mia ov, 7) Phoe un, 8) Chi un

Tempted to take this Cle/Sac over...CLE 8-4 to the Over in back-enders although one of those were OT-aided...

ORL has gone Over 10 in a row...Will be a nice chart-play once we finally have an Under...

Monday's plays...

Getting busy, will post these quickly:

Sides:

1) Memp, 2) Dal, 3) Mia, 4) Orl, 5) Phoe, 6) Bos, 7) Cle, 8) Chi

Memphis Grizzlies -3, laying $103 to win $100 -- Statement game for the Grizz...Clips may have some adjusting adding Grant Hill to the rotation which proved to be the case possibly in the loss to ORL on SAT...

Dallas Mavericks -6.5, laying $103 to win $100 -- Dallas is heating up and finding their stride as Nowitzki is slowly getting into playing shape and Minnesota is banged up...

Miami Heat -3, laying $100 to win $100 -- The Heat played terribly for a few weeks, just didn't seem to care and then back-to-back losses to start this road trip and especially the loss to PORT seemed to wake this team up as they dismantled SAC last time out and when they get hot, they get white-hot and are very hard to beat and I think Miami is about to go on a little run here...

GL...

Sunday play...

Milwaukee/Toronto under 192.5, laying $105 to win $100 -- Toronto's defense has been greatly improved their last 13 games in which they have gone 10-3 SU, going Under in 9 of those 13 games in regulation time (one OT Over in there)...A lot of those have been stone unders, going way under the total...

GL...

I am probably taking Indy/Brooklyn under, too...

Sunday first blushes...

I want to take the Knicks game Under badly today (automatic afternoon Under) but there is a fairly strong chart-play on the Over today for New Orleans...Guess we'll see which is the stronger trend today when this game ends...

I think I will be betting the Milw/Tor game Under though (the other automatic afternoon Under for today)...

And the Pacers/Nets game certainly looks like a stone Under, especially if Paul George doesn't play for Indy (flu) and Gerald Wallace is Out for Brooklyn and Deron Williams is questionable, too, for cripes sakes, so how will this game even hit 170 if George and Williams don't play??...

Injuries are hurting the T'Wolves...Spurs haven't covered 4 straight though...

Saturday Totals...

Totals:

1) Phi ov, 2) Phoe un, 3) Char un, 4) Dal un, 5) Atl un, 6) Mia un, 7) Utah ov, 8) Orl ov

I may bet this Hou/Phi game Over though...

Saturday Sides...

Still cannot believe GS didn't cover last night after being up at least 20...Cost me a good night...

Sides:

1) Mia, 2) Atl, 3) Dal, 4) Phi, 5) Phoe, 6) Char, 7) Utah, 8) Orl

I think I will wait for 2H lines tonight...

Saturday notes...

Orl/LAC -- the automatic Under in play here for a 12:30 local time game in LA...But, ORL has 9 straight Overs...Pacers seem to be a flat-out Under team right now...6 in a row and 8 of 9 Under...Wiz should have Wall back tonight...DET has won 7 of 9 and the 2 losses were in OT...Philly stinks right now but we have a chart-play to fade HOU for a 2nd straight game...Let-down spot for MEMP as DAL seems on the verge of breaking out despite a 5-game losing streak...A chart-play to fade SAC for a 3rd straight game...

Friday's Totals rankings...

Totals:

1) Cle ov, 2) Memp un, 3) GS un, 4) Milw ov , 5) Atl ov, 6) Phoe un, 7) LAL ov, 8) NY ov, 9) NO un, 10) Bos un, 11) Char un

3 plays...

A situational spot and 2 revenge spots here...


Memphis Grizzlies -2, laying $103 to win $100 -- The Grizz blew a 13 or maybe a 15-point 4th quarter lead the last time they played the Spurs and lost in OT at SA...That was a bit of a statement game in which they covered, but the statement they wanted to make wasn't quite delivered...I look for the Grizz to deliver it tonight...Memphis is playing very well again suddenly their last 3 games and the Spurs have been shaky their last 3 games...I think Memphis finishes the job tonight...



New York Knicks -4, laying $105 to win $100 -- The Knicks got hammered by this Bulls' team last time out...Hammered...Don't let the final score fool you...CHI was up at least 25 in this game before getting outscored by 18 in the 4Q to make the final score look deceivingly close...And the Bulls have beaten NY twice this season already and were very physical with the Knicks in both wins...But 3 times in a row?...Melo back tonight and he will be looking to bounce-back from a 6-for-26 shooting night against a foul-mouth KG and the Celtics...The Knicks have been terrible without Felton, but Melo should rise up tonight and get the Knicks a revenge win tonight...Knicks haven't lost 3 in a row all season...


Golden State Warriors -8, laying $104 to win $100 -- Huge let-down spot for Portland after a BIG win vs. Miami last night on national TV...GS had not lost 2 in a row all season before Memphis beat them last time out after the Clips trounced them, so I am not seeing 3 losses in a row, no way, no how in this very favorable situational spot for GS...This is the Warriors' 4th straight game where they have rest and their opponent does not (on a back-ender) and GS is playing just their 4th game in 13 nights while PORT is playing their 7th game in 11 nights...Advantage: GS, who should win this by double-digits as PORT has no bench and are going to need one tonight when their starters begin to tire...

GL...

Friday Sides rankings (probably 3 plays)...

Sides:

1) Memp, 2) GS, 3) NY, 4) Bos, 5) Phoe, 6) Char, 7) LAL, 8) Cle, 9) Atl, 10) Milw, 11) NO

Will bet my top 3 sides and give reasoning shortly...Like a lot of these actually, but will stick with top 3...

Thursday rankings...

Sides:

1) Dal, 2) Ind, 3) Port

Totals:

1) Ind un, 2) Dal ov, 3) Port ov

I may just wait for 2H plays tonight...

Wednesday Totals...

Totals:

1) Orl ov, 2) Atl ov, 3) Chi un, 4) GS un, 5) SA ov, 6) Tor un, 7) NO ov, 8) Bos ov, 9) Dal ov, 10) OKC ov, 11) Char un

Wednesday Sides rankings...

Sides:

1) GS, 2) Chi, 3) Bos, 4) SA, 5) Dal, 6) NO, 7) OKC, 8) Char, 9) Tor, 10) Orl, 11) Atl

Busy day...No plays yet, but I am thinking about GS...Looking at Totals briefly now...

Rankings and 3 plays...

Melo let KG get under his skin last night and was terrible...On to today...

Sides:

1) Milw, 2) Phi, 3) Atl, 4) Hou, 5) Ind

Totals:

1) Hou ov, 2) Atl un, 3) Ind un, 4) Phi un, 5) Milw un

Milwaukee Bucks -6, laying $107 to win $100 -- Simple: New coach angle, which I have talked about so many times on this blog and this "trend" is pretty much unbeaten not only in the NBA, but in the NFL the past 2 seasons...

Philadelphia 76ers -2, laying $100 to win $101 -- Needless to say that Andre Blatche has got to be slightly distracted tonight as he is being investigated in an alleged rape at his suite in a Philadelphia hotel early this morning...This is what happens when you allow your "buddies" to have a party in your suite and you invite women, get drunk past midnight...Allegedly, date rape drugs were found in the hotel room and pics of the victim in compromising positions were found on Blatches' phone...All allegedly, he is innocent until proven guilty and maybe a friend grabbed Blatches' phone and took the pics, who knows, but this is a BAD situation...No charges have been filed yet and Blatche will play tonight, but I'll fade that mess, take the revenge spot for Philly, and yes, I know you usually fade a team at Home for the first game back after a long road trip, BUT, that is when that team has 1 days rest...Philly has had 3 days rest here and since Doug Collins is a great coach, I expect him to have this Sixer's team ready to play and win tonight...

LA Lakers/Houston over 56.5, 1Q, laying $110 to win $100 -- It can be dangerous to play 1Q bets at times as sometimes this strategy backfires, but in this instance, I am worried about a Houston blowout here, and seeing the 2H slow down...Plus, I worry about who will score for the Lakers the minute, no, the second Kobe goes to the bench tonight...Barring foul trouble, Kobe will play the entire 1Q, and hopefully World Peace and Nash will play all or most of the 1Q, so I am looking for 60 or more tonight in the opening quarter...Although I also believe the 1H and Game will go Over, too...

GL...

additional notes...

I played the Knicks...Hate laying that many points, but I'll take a shot with Rondo out...

Memphis Under 5 straight and 12 of the last 14 and the Overs were back-to-back, the first against Houston, and heck, anyone against Houston can be an Over at any time and the other game was against Philly that didn't go Over by much and it only went Over because Philly shot lights out from three-land...MEMP also 5-0 to the Under on back-enders this season...

Orlando over 7 straight...

OKC 2nd in the league in FG% allowed so WASH should struggle scoring points...Worried about both teams being on back-enders, though...

I like Cleveland because although CHI has owned them in their 2 meetings this season at CLE, the Cavs were missing Kylie Irving in the 2nd game and CHI shot a fluky 64% from the floor in the 1st game...CHI has been a brutal cover team at Home this season and obviously Irving is a difference-maker...

Monday rankings...

Sides:

1) NY, 2) Cle, 3) Memp, 4) Was, 5) Dal, 6) Orl, 7) NO

Totals:

1) Orl ov, 2) Memp un, 3) Was un, 4) NY un, 5) Cle ov, 6) Dal ov, 7) NO ov

I like my totals more tonight, so we'll see what that means...Rondo out for Celtics...Usually means an Under...Without Rondo, though, I don't see how the C's can cover this one...Knicks obviously played great last time out at MSG...

one play...

Sacramento Kings +7, laying $107 to win $100 -- Pretty simple as I am sticking with the red-hot team...Kings playing GREAT since DeMarcus Cousins returned to the line-up...Brooklyn has been flaky all year, played double-OT last night and even if they get out to a big lead early, they have blown plenty of big leads this year and the Kings have fought back from many 2nd half deficits this year so I expect them to fight till the final buzzer at worst, and at best, they can knock off the Nets...

GL...

Saturday Totals rankings...

Totals:

1) Orl ov, 2) Sac un, 3) GS ov, 4) Port un, 5) Hou ov, 6) Utah un, 7) Atl un, 8) Milw un, 9) Dal un, 10) Phi un

I am betting Sacramento, too...

Saturday Sides rankings...

Sides:

1) Sac, 2) GS, 3) Port, 4) Milw, 5) Orl, 6) Utah, 7) Dal, 8) Phi, 9) Atl, 10) Hou

Notes:

Had the Clips not played the Lakers last night, they would be a play for me tonight as I am sure they have payback on their minds for the throttling they received at GS 3 nights ago...But this is a tough spot for them...Jamal Crawford is questionable and quite frankly, they NEED him to have any shot at covering this game...I think the Clips can win this game without Crawford, but it'll come down to the final seconds as I believe GS gets under this number and certainly has a shot to win...

Sacramento is simply red-hot right now and Brooklyn is 2-6 in back-enders...Minny just 2-5 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not and they may not have Love tonight as he is questionable...

I may have a bet tonight, we'll see...Gotta grab something to eat,,,

Friday Totals rankings...

Totals:

1) Sac un, 2) Phi ov, 3) Milw ov, 4) Phoe un, 5) Port un, 6) Was ov, 7) Char un, 8) LAL un, 9) Chi un, 10) Det un, 11) Ind ov

No plays tonight...Should be opportunities for some good situational spots on Saturday...

Friday Sides rankings...

First night all year where I didn't get to see a single minute of an NBA game...Looks like the Knicks defense showed up after all as they blew it open in the 4Q over SA...So I guess I am not going undefeated in 2013...

Sides:

1) Sac, 2) LAL, 3) Port, 4) Phi, 5) Chi, 6) Char, 7) Phoe, 8) Ind, 9) Was, 10) Det, 11) Milw

I like my top 6 sides, but to be honest, not enough to bet...No one play stands out to me tonight...I like those top 6 picks, but I can make arguments for the other side on all 6...

I will cap the Totals real quick now, maybe I'll find a play there, maybe not, but this could be a 2H kind of night...

Thursday rankings and play...

Sides:

1) SA, 2) Min

Totals:

1) SA ov, 2) Min ov

San Antonio Spurs Pick, laying $105 to win $100 -- I like the revenge spot here...The Knicks had a remarkable comeback at SA 7 weeks ago to the day, down about 15 points with about 6 minutes left to win that game..And they were celebrating like they won the title...And I made a mental note of that as I watched the entire 2H of that game...I don't think the Spurs' players liked the way the Knicks were celebrating down the stretch after every made basket going into a timeout and the celebration after the game...I remember mentally circling that game...Spurs are 5-2-1 ATS on back-enders, while the Knicks I believe are 1-3 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...The Knicks are in a bad habit of falling behind early in games lately...I watched the entire game vs. Portland and I heard on the Knicks post-game show that they have trailed in their last 6 games after the 1st quarter...NY was able to come back numerous times this season (including at SA) from big deficits but this will, and has, caught up with them...The Knicks miss Raymond Felton badly...They miss his scoring badly...Jason Kidd was 0-for-5 with zero points and 3 or 4 total bricks last time out in 33 minutes and Pablo Prigioni wasn't much better, with 2 points in 22 minutes...Amare Stoudamire returning, a RUSTY Amare Stoudamire, just confuses the rotations for Coach Woodson until Amare gets going...Teams are starting to take Steve Novak out of the Knicks' offense as they have someone hanging on Novak at all times now and his production is disappearing...Ronnie Brewer is not the answer, either...Carmelo and J.R. Smith combined for 73 points against PORT, and they still lost...And those 2 guys are the only offense the Knicks have right now...And Melo got dinged up again late in the PORT game...Meanwhile, the Spurs, after a brief rough patch a few weeks ago, are now clicking on all cylinders again...And it sounds like Parker and the other veterans are looking forward to this game as I believe they have payback on their minds and I don't think the Knicks are going to be able to stop them, no matter how much they talk about clamping down their defense in their post-game interviews...I see the Knicks' recent struggles at MSG continuing tonight as the Spurs should win this one...

GL...

What will Popovich do?...

Will Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich sit starters again tonight at MSG like he did at Miami 5 weeks ago to the day?...Similar situation as this is a 4th game in 5 nights like it was at Miami, on a THUR, although, maybe due to the Bowl games, TNT is not covering games Nationally tonight as the Miami game was a TNT game...

I read this online article, so it would seem as though Popovich may not do it this time:

Article

Not as much travel this time as there was last time either...Spurs were concluding a 6-game Road trip 5 weeks ago when Pop sent 4 starters home instead of to Miami...This time the Spurs played at DAL, then had a Home game, now away to Milwaukee and NY...Not as bad and the starters got rest the first 2 games of this 4-game stint as they didn't even play the 4th quarter in those 2 games because the Spurs were murdering DAL and BKN...They were up 23 at MILW, too, in the 2H, before the Bucks made a run and Pop had to put the starters back in...

So if all the starters are available tonight for the Spurs, I like SA as a play here...Some details on why later, but if anyone hears about Pop sitting starters tonight, post a Comment on my blog because I am at work tonight and won't see the pregame show on DirecTv like I could if I was at Home...

one play...

Golden State Warriors Pick, laying $100 to win $111 -- I will fade the "air is out of the balloon" team  as the Clips just had their 17-game winning streak snapped...GS was jacked up for this one even before the Clips lost last night...But again, this is simple as I have seen it many times over the years and that is when a long win-streak gets snapped, that team generally loses the next one...

GL...

Wednesday Totals rankings...

Totals:

1) Sac ov, 2) Mem un, 3) Utah ov, 4) NO ov, 5) Was un, 6) Bkn un, 7) GS un, 8) Tor un, 9) Phoe un, 10) Chi un, 11) Dal un, 12) Milw un

Wednesday Sides rankings...

I am short on time today so there won't be a ton of capping on the totals, but I have finished the sides and it looks like this:

Sides:

1) GS, 2) Was, 3) Bkn, 4) Tor, 5) Memp, 6) Sac, 7) Dal, 8) Chi, 9) NO, 10) Utah, 11) Milw, 12) Phoe

Notes:

As good as the Clips are, they are only 2-4 ATS on the back-end of back-to-backs...And often times, when a team has a huge winning streak or huge cover streak end, they lose a few in a row as there is a natural let-down spot as the wind is going to come out of the sails when a 17-game win streak ends...GS already beat the Clips at Staples on Nov. 3rd as both teams were on back-enders, and here we have GS with 3 days rest and the Clips with their 2-4 ATS record on a back-ender...GS 2-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponent is on a back-ender...

Washington is 6-2 ATS on back-enders...Brooklyn off a 31-point loss and the last time they came off a loss that bad, they beat Orlando by about 40 their next game...So I expect them to show up and give OKC a game...Toronto looks like a trap game to me as Portland is playing REALLY well, although the Raptors have figured out how to play defense and are playing very well themselves, so the Raps are the play catching the Blazers off a big win...Nothing else stands out too much to me although the more I think about it, I probably should have Chicago ranked 5th as they should win this game easily tonight, but they have been so terrible lately, I slid them down...

Will post Totals shortly with minimal capping and probably have a bet on GS...

Tuesday rankings and plays...

I hope the new calendar will bring an end to all the half-point losses as I bet 2 games 2 nights ago and lost them both by half a point and I bet a 2H game last night and yes, believe it or not, lost it by half-a-point at the buzzer thanks to a meaningless layup...And December was chock full of half-point losses the entire month...I hope we can start getting as many 1/2-point wins in January as I got losses in December...

Here we go...

Sides:

1) Den, 2) Atl, 3) Sac, 4) Port, 5) Phi, 6) Dal

Totals:

1) Sac ov, 2) Den ov, 3) Dal un, 4) Port ov, 5) Atl un, 6) Phi ov

Plays:

Denver Nuggets -2, laying $100 to win $104 -- 17 straight wins for the Clips including hammering the Nuggets at Staples on Christmas night a week ago...When SA beat Denver by almost 30 at SA early in the year, the Nuggets paid them back at Denver a month later with a 6-point win, although the Nuggets were up double-digits almost the entire 2nd half...Simple revenge game here, and in this case, a short-turnaround-revenge game, the kind I like the most because the team with the revenge spot in a short-turnaround spot usually wins and covers especially when we are dealing with 2 good teams as bad teams may not cover in this spot because well, they are bad...Denver has been outstanding at Home thus far at 9-1 SU, and they basically just need to win this game to cover as the line is 1 at most shops (I sold a point to get positive juice)...

Sacramento Kings +6.5, laying $102 to win $100 -- Both of these teams are playing much better basketball recently, but I think the return of DeMarcus Cousins from team suspension makes this team better as a more focused Cousins means a better team for the Kings and even though SAC has a horrible record on the Road, they have been in many of these games and I think they can win this game outright...

Atlanta Hawks -2, laying $100 to win $100 -- Atlanta playing their 4th game in 5 nights, but they won their other game in this spot 10 days ago coming off a loss at Philly where they were hammered by 19 the night before and then they beat CHI by 17 the following night in a game that was their 4th game in 5 nights...ATL is 6-1 ATS in back-enders while NO is 0-2 ATS when they have rest and are catching a team on the back-end of a back-to-back...

GL...