Sunday thoughts...

Alright, am I getting too fancy here?...

I want to play this Phoenix/LA Clippers game Under in the worst way, to stay in line with the NBA Afternoon Game Unders trend I talked about yesterday...This trend is one that I have simplified, stating that any "NBA game starting at or before 1:05 p.m. (local time at the arena where the contest is being played), you take Under"...13-5 to the Under so far this season in regulation time, although an OT game killed one of the Unders and puts the trend officially at 12-6 to the Under...

On the surface, this total is too low...These 2 teams  have FLOWN Over 211 head-to-head for the most part in each of their last 8 meetings and have gone Over 8 of their last 9 head-to-head meetings...Take it one step further, these 2 teams have averaged 232 PPG in their last 7 head-to-head meetings...And after all, we are talking about Phoenix here...The Suns are 2nd in the league in scoring and 2nd in the league in points allowed (the latter is BAD, oh-by-the-way), as Suns' games average a ridiculous 217 points per game...

Throw in the fact that the Clippers are 3rd worst in the league in 3-point % allowed while PHOE is 10th best in the league in 3-point shooting % (which is pretty good considering how many they fire up), and this game has Over written all over it...

So why only 211 when these 2 teams are averaging 232 the last 7 meetings against each other, including a 224 earlier this season?...

Well, it doesn't take much homework to see that the Clippers have had 7 straight Home Unders and 9 of their last 10 home games have gone Under...This includes their last 2 games vs. Houston (5th in the league in PPG) and Minnesota (8th in PPG)...They also had home Unders vs. the Lakers (6th in PPG) on 12/8 and San Antonio (4th in PPG) on 12/1...The Lakers game produced a 173 and the Spurs' game produced a 175...So these are 4 LEGIT scoring teams all going Under at Staples vs. the Clips...

So I pretty much have to take this game Under...

Although the "getting fancy" part of this play is that I am thinking about a hedge for 1/2 a unit on the 1Q Over...

Why?...

The Clips have gone Over in the 1Q in their last 3 Home games and the last 2 flew Over (60 and 65), and I expect this 1Q line to be about 53 or 53.5 if this line stays at 211...

I think the sharps may bet this total down as I see early action on the Under, but I won't bet the Under now because I think the public will bet this game Over based on the head-to-head info and move the total up on Sunday...

So the plan is a $100 bet on the game total Under with a $50 "hedge" bet to the 1Q Over because I figure if the 1Q doesn't go Over, then the game won't go Over, so I still win...If the 1Q flies Over and the game goes Over, I only lose 1/2 a unit...If the the 1Q goes Over and the game stays Under (like the last 3 Clippers home games) then I win both...

You with me?...

Just another day in the mind of brewers7, NBA handicapper...

Check back in the afternoon for the official plays...