Wednesday, December 28, 2011

First total bet...

NBA 1-0, + $100

New York/Golden State Over 201.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I promised myself that I would wait until Week 2 before I made a totals bet, but hey, some promises have to be broken when opportunities present themselves...I got the total at 201, but there are still plenty of 201.5 totals on the Board as the total is rising as expected...

I know all that new GS Coach Mark Jackson has done the last 2 weeks is preach defense and his players talk about just that in every interview I have seen with GS players at half-time and during post-game talks whenever a microphone is put in front of a Warriors' player's face...I also know Curry is doubtful for Wednesday's game...

But I also know that GS shot 39% in their opener and then 47% against a very good defensive team vs. Chicago in Game 2 and they now have a 3rd consecutive home game in 4 days and I expect the shooting to continue to improve...The PACE improved for GS in their 2nd game and with the Knicks coming to town, I don't expect the Pace to slow one bit...NY had a very frentic Pace in their opener, and I expect more of the same Wednesday night...Sure, NY now has a stopper in the middle with Tyson Chandler, but he is prone to foul trouble...

I also know that a coach can preach and preach defense all day long, but when you get on the court and see Melo, Amare, Douglas and Fields sprinting up and down the court off a missed a shot, you are going to get caught up in the Pace of the game and run around like maniacs for spurts...

A 1Q bet will be tempting, too...

This total is just too low for a NY/GS match-up, even early in a lock-out season...Total will probably go off around 205 by game time and I still like it Over that total...

GL...

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