A couple of spots here in Week 2 where one team looked terrible and their opponent looked great...
My general theory has always been to take the team that looked terrible the previous week vs. the team that looked great the previous week, because in the NFL (as in all major sports), you never are as good or as bad as you looked the previous week...
Let's look at the match-ups that fit the criteria for Week #2:
Chicago +5.5 at Green Bay -- THUR night game...Bears won 41-21 over Indy and the Packers lost at Home 30-22 to the 49ers...
Baltimore +2 at Philadelphia -- The Ravens dismantled the Bengals 44-13 while the Eagles turned it over 5 times and barely beat the Browns 17-16...
N.Y. Jets +6 at Pittsburgh -- Jets throttled the Bills 48-28 and the Steelers lost to the Broncos 31-19...
These are the 3 games that most fit my criteria...
The picks are all 3 home teams, giving the points...
Are they all going to win?...
Maybe...65/35 shot IMO...
Are they all going to cover the spread?...
I severely doubt it...
All 3 could win and yet only 1 might cover...The first few weeks of the NFL season can often be unpredictable...But I will take the one team that I believe is MOST likely to cover the spread...
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5, laying $105 to win $100 -- You may be asking how the Eagles even fit this criteria of playing "terrible" when they won the dang game last week...Well, let's face the facts...Philly was 9-point chalk against the Browns and yet they scored on a late drive to eke out a victory, 17-16...I live less than 2 hours from Philly and the headline in my local paper was "LUCKY"...All the talking heads on TV talked about how poorly the Eagles and Michael Vick played...Well, Vick may have played "poorly" with the 4 picks, but the Eagles defense played well and kept them in this game...The Eagles offense still pounded out over 450 yards...The Eagles "D" held the browns to 210 total yards and just 12 first downs...Ok, yeah, I know, this is the Browns and certainly not the Ravens offense, which looked spectacular in Week 1...But Cincy still gained over 320 yards on offense and out-rushed Baltimore 129 to 122...Now the question will be can Andy Reid stop throwing the damn ball so much and run it some more?...I hope so, because that will be the formula needed to beat this Ravens' team, IMO...They can throw to set up the run here...Eat clock and keep the Ravens offense off the field, not that I am deathly afraid here because the Eagles "D" should be able to put pressure on Flacco which will hopefully keep his numbers down...My biggest question is whether the Eagles are going to be able to stop the run this week...But everyone is talking about how awesome Baltimore is and how awesome Flacco and the offense are and their big win on Monday night is what has this line below 3, which to me, is value, getting the Eagles at less than 3-point chalk at Home...
This is my first NFL play of the year (Yup, should have made Dallas a pick in Week 1, but oh well)...I will look at a teaser possibility Saturday night...
GL...
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