Miami Heat -6.5, laying $105 to win $100...
You may be saying to yourself, "Brewers7, what the heck are you talking about, 'Statement game' -- C'mon, give us a break, this is the Bucks, who have fallen to 9th in the East and are struggling like crazy"...
I know...
I also know that you will go to the poor-house fairly quickly trying to make ends meat as a bettor taking Road Favorites in the NBA...
But I have mentioned at least once on this blog that Milwaukee is currently suffering from post-Kogut-injury syndrome, a condition that was overcome the first couple of games without Bogut as the team rose up to win a few games, but the reality of life without one of the best shot-blockers in the league, not to mention his inside scoring ability and rebounding, is setting in as Milwaukee has gone 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6...
But back to the "statement game" thing I mentioned...
The Bucks have beaten the Heat both times they have played them this season...And the last time was one of those wins the Bucks had without Bogut...
Do you really think the Heat want to lose to the Bucks 3 times in a row?...
You need to remember a few things about that last game at MILW without Bogut where the Bucks won 105-97...Miami led by 17 after the 1st quarter...And Brandon Jennings was 7-for-14 from 3-point range in that game for 31 points...Do you think Jennings is going to hit 7 more treys this time around?...Can you say "adjustments" Coach Spoelstra?...Can you say "motivational edge", LeBron, D-Wade and Mr. Bosh?...
Can YOU say, "Let's grab this overnight line at 6.5, a whisker below the only key number in the NBA (7) before it goes up before the tip to probably 7.5"?...
I am not worried about the Heat being 2-5 ATS in back-enders this season because that is cancelled out by MILW being 1-3 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not, and 2 of those Not Covers were against teams playing their 3rd game in 3 nights...Ok, the one Cover was against Miami, but again, irrelevant to me because I always look for the team with the motivational edge and I don't see Miami blowing another big lead this time around and believe me, they'll be up double-digits at some point in this one, maybe even the in the 1Q again...
I realize Miami plays at Indiana on Tuesday for their 3rd game in 3 nights, if they do get up big, they will rest their starters in the 4Q, but I am hoping the Heat will be up about 20+ like they were against Atlanta on Sunday...No big minutes played by Heat players on Sunday...
The Heat do have their unbeatable stretches at times and I am hoping they are in the midst of one now...
I like 2 other plays for Monday, but will wait on the lines...
GL...
Can you explain the "Key" # of 7 in the NBA?
ReplyDeleteThe "key" number of 7 is the number where team generally stop fouling at the end of a game...I have DirecTv and have had the NBA Package for about 10 years now and it is amazing to see how many games fall at a 7-point margin (1-point more than a 2-possession game), because if there is 10 or 12 seconds left and you are down 6, that is just 2 possessions and 2 treys can tie the game so most teams will continue to fight, but if your are down 3 possessions, teams generally quit in the final 20 seconds...
ReplyDeleteMakes complete sense to me. Thanks for the reply. Like the spots tonight.
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