Well, my gut was 2-0 yesterday...I guess that's what happens when you have 30 years of experience capping the NBA, although I have evolved as a handicapper over those years, fine-tuning and adapting to Vegas adapting to the ever-changing betting environment...
A good example is this Nets/Knicks game tonight...
I see NJ on the Road, playing their 4th game in 5 nights playing a Knicks team playing their 3rd game in 3 nights and 4th game in 5 nights...A couple of my favorite trends...If you simply look at the historical data (which I don't have in front of me and it may not be as super-strong as my head tells me it is) visiting teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights playing home teams on their 4th game in 5 nights has been money for the Visiting team ATS-wise over the years...And if you look at the 1998-99 strike-shortened year, the visiting team CLEANED UP ATS-wise in any game where one of the 2 teams (or both) was playing their 3rd game in 3 nights...
But whoa there Kemosabe...
Completely different story in 2011-12...
If I did my math correctly, we have a reversal in every category...
The games in which either team is playing a 3rd game in 3 nights: the Away team is just 4-11 ATS this year, basically it's almost a flip-flop from the 1998-99 numbers...Same with the 4-games-in-5-days trend...The super strong spot of the past where the Away teams cover a game where both teams are playing their 4th game in 5 days is just 5-6 ATS...The other 2 spots are you take an Away team playing their 4th game in 5 days against any rest for the Home team (not including the 4 of 5 spot) and that is just 11-16 ATS so far and the last spot is you fade the Home team playing their 4th game in 5 nights against a visitor on any rest (not including the 4 of 5 spot), and this spot is a brutal 9-19 ATS thus far this season...
So we have a total reversal this season to this point for trends that have been strong in the past, which is well, why I dig deeper than just 1 or 2 trends on any given game...
Now NJ has been holding true to those successful trends of the past as they are 3-0 this season in these spots and have one tonight vs. the Knicks...But the Knicks bucked their only spot with these trends, getting blown out at Houston last SAT...
But as I look at this game, trends aside, I see a Knicks team in dire need of a win (like they were when they hammered Detroit at home 4 days ago) coming off 2 tough losses against good teams...The 6.5 points just seem like too much, but it's under the only "key" number in the NBA, which is 7, and since the Home team is covering this 3 games in 3 days spot this season, I may have to take the Knicks tonight...We'll see...Have a little bit of time to decide...
And Denver is playing their 2nd 3-games-in-3-days spot and they covered at Home the first time they were in this spot, but this set of 3 games is tougher...
The first time, the Nuggets lost but covered at Staples vs. the Lakers, then went home and beat the Lakers in a revenge home-and-home spot and then barely covered in a win over a MILW team that struggled early in the season as this was the 9th day of the season when they beat MILW...
Now, they beat the Clippers at Staples 2 days ago, then lost a tough one to the Lakers last night, and tonight they go to PORT, who is 10-1 at Home...Again 6 points looks like too much...But, PORT is 3-0 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not, and one of those wins was a 9-point win over DEN on the 4th day of the season...PORT is also 9-2 ATS at Home, and were an eyelash away from 10-1, but the 76ers made an incredible 4Q comeback to barely sneak under the number in the final minute on opening night for those 2 teams...I think the Mozkov injury hurts tonight, too...Usually injuries are no big deal for one game in the NBA as players rise up, but just for this spot, with a 3rd game in 3 nights and one less regular out of George Karls's rotation against a tough home team, it could make a difference...
The Brewers7 of the past would NEVER give 6 or 6.5 points in these 2 spots, and in fact, I would be all over the points...But the evolving Brewers7 is thinking seriously about taking the home team FAV in both spots tonight...
We'll see...
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