2 plays tonight...

I had today's MIA/ATL circled as soon as ATL beat the Heat on Monday as a nice revenge spot, but that is washed out with the injuries of LeBron and D-Wade, so this will be a pass and I would love to take this total Under, but the status of those makes it tougher because if they play, it may or should go Over, but if they don't, it should definitely go Under...

But 2 other plays have surfaced for me tonight...

Sacramento Kings +2.5, laying $104 to win $100 -- New coach angle...Works across multiple sports...Was 3-0 in the NFL this season ATS, and I was on all 3 of them...First opportunity this year and I'll take a stab as most trends favor SAC here except for the one where "you take a team coming off a bad shooting night where their FG% was less than 33%" and Milwaukee actually shot less than 31% two nights ago...But the Kings have the new coach angle, they have the bounce-back angle from a 27-point loss and they have a budding angle for this season where a home team playing their 3rd game in 3 nights is 3-0 ATS ...

Now I mentioned how the Away teams dominated ALL games in 1998-99 (the last strike season) where we had either team playing 3 games in 3 nights...Huge numbers that season for the Away team and I don't have time to explain why those were easy plays that season, because I had one of my best (if not my best) season ever that year and I was all over the Away teams in this spot 13 years ago...But I did warn that for this season, it doesn't guarantee anything...

This year, I have been on the Home team every time in this spot...Vegas isn't stupid...They know what happened in 1998-99...And the line has been over-adjusted, in my opinion, early in this season...And no instance was more true than when Denver played their 3rd game in 3 nights against this same MIL team just 3 nights ago and the Bucks had 2 nights rest for that one and the Nuggets covered by half a point due to the over-adjustment...

The Bucks are banged up, no Kogut, and to me, the over-riding trend is the new coach angle as Kings' players did NOT play a ton of minutes last night as only one starter played more than 28 minutes...And these guys (outside of Hayes and Salmons) are a young group, so I don't see tired legs as an issue tonight, despite their 3rd game in 3 nights...

The Kings' only 2 wins are at home and they will have the motivational edge tonight, as do just about all teams playing the first night of a midseason coaching change, do...

Portland Trailblazers -3.5, laying $103 to win $100 -- Sure, the Lakers are the public darlings, but I don't quite get this line and wonder if the sharps are going to pound it up to 4 or 4.5 in the next few hours...The Lakers have struggled at the Rose Garden in recent years...Sure, they won 2 of the last 3 (one in OT), but had lost 9 straight at PORT before that...These PORT fans are always up for this one...

And I know the Vegas line is made to get equal action on both sides based on public perception, but I see some major value in taking the Blazers tonight if you look at this game with minimum of effort...I generally look at FG% for and against (among other things) and yes, LAL is 2nd in the league in FG% against, while PORT is only 14th, BUT, look at who PORT has played:

LAC (2nd in FG% for), PHI (3rd), DEN (5th), OKC (7th) in 4 of their 5 games, so I think that #14 ranking is skewed a bit...LAL is 0-2 on the Road...So if you throw out public perception, I think the line should be higher, so I will take PORT and some value...

Editor's note: I started this thread an hour ago, but my sister stopped by with her kids and I had a 45-minute break after typing the first few paragraphs...

GL...