Just started looking at the Board and although I HATE this line, I feel that I am contractually obligated to bet this play based on the trends and situational factors involved...
Chicago Bulls -5.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I hate this this line...it is completely over-adjusted and it wouldn't surprise me to see ATL lose but cover this inflated line...But I am playing the situational spot..ATL has played 2 straight overtimes and some of their players have logged heavy minutes...It is their 3rd game in 3 nights, 5th game in 7 nights and 7th game in 9 nights...Yes, 7th game in 9 nights...happened about 6 times in 1998-99 and teams playing 7 games in 9 days covered more than you think...But the home team did not do as well as the away team covering this spot during that season...Also in 1998-99, teams playing their 4th games in 5 nights (Chicago, tonight) were 4-0 ATS playing a team who was playing their 3rd game in 3 nights (Atlanta, tonight)...3-0 ATS on the Road, to break it down further...Teams playing 4 games in 5 nights historically do well on the Road, not counting certain situations, so this is a GREAT spot for Chicago...It would have been even BETTER had the Bulls lost to ATL a few nights ago and/or lost to ORL last night, but I am going to hop that ATL peters out in the 2H of this game and CHI gets over this somewhat lofty number...
And one final note: I mentioned this before and I will do it again, but in 1998-99, in games where at least one team was playing their 3rd game in 3 nights, the Away team has dominated...NOT the case in 2011-12, as I have mentioned and I have been on the Home teams thus far...This year, the Home teams have been 4-0 ATS in this spot...I feel this very successful spot in 1998-99 is certainly "due" to hit here, so Chicago is the pick for me, despite having absolutely no value whatsoever with this inflated line...
GL...
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