Friday, April 6, 2012

FRI looks...

I am surprised by this Was/NJ total...

Does Vegas follow chart-plays?...

This is still a strong chart-play to the Over for the Wiz...

But NJ has gone Under 7 of 8 and 4 straight Home games...They are playing heir first home game after a 4-game road trip which generally leads to a flat spot for teams in this situation...

So I checked the 3-games-in-3-days situational spot (As the Wiz are playing their 3rd game in 3 days), thinking there might be a rash of Overs, but I sopped counting after I saw 21 of 39 Unders in this spot...

But the Pace was a lot quicker than it seemed in DET last night because you have to factor in the 37 turnovers  and 68 FTs...Granted, WAS employed the "Hack-a-Wallace" strategy to get back into the game late in the 4Q, but I believe Wallace went 5-for-8 during that stretch from the line...The game would have went over a lot easier had some of the 24 missed FTs been made during the game and as you can see, only 3 of those 24 misses happened during the "Hack-a-Wallace" stint right before the 2-minute mark left in the game...

The play is the Over or stay away, but man, Vegas made this line a tough one with the 196.5...I know they are basing it off the 197 total these same 2 teams played to just 2 weeks ago in this same building...

I may still take this Over anyway and ride out the chart-play...Deron Williams is probable, Anthony Morrow has been shooting better recently for NJ, and Nene is out for WAS and Seraphin stll hasn't blocked a shot in 4 games and he put up 15 more points on 7-for-12 shooting so why not take the Over?...

We'll see..

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