Saturday, November 10, 2012

post-mortem for Friday...


Post-mortem on Friday...

I always do self-analysis to see what I could have done better, if anything, about my night...

From a handicapping perspective, I could not have done too much better on Friday...

The rankings show that, the games I talked about show that and I even talked about 2 "automatic" plays that I have established during 31 years of handicapping the NBA, and these 2 particular automatic plays are pretty strong plays...Usually very strong, in fact...

And sure enough, Brooklyn won by 39 points and the Lakers won by 24...

So what is clear and extremely upsetting to me is that I had a solid night handicapping, but an awful, atrocious, abominable, agonizing night of actual betting...

I hate to lose...It irks me to no end when I have a losing night...I know this was "only" an 0-2 night, but it was a terrible, horrific 0-2 night for me considering the games I talked about and the automatic plays I did NOT bet...

I have said in multiple posts this season that my totals are starting slow like most years and I need a few weeks, maybe a month-and-a-half before the data is in and I start nailing those...But my sides have been spot-on as the evidence has shown pretty much every night...Top 9 sides 8-1 with one half-point loser Friday and not a single bet...

All this proves to me is how hard it really can be to win money long term at this...You not only have to be a good handicapper, you need to select the right games after capping and then use smart money management on the bets.

The money management I am not worried about as EJ and I are doing a demonstration on that in "The Trek to $20,000" section...I also am not worried about my handicapping...I just need, starting Saturday, to bet the top plays I have ranked...

I haven't ranked my plays daily EVERY day since the 2007-08 season after doing it for 18 seasons in a row...I stopped doing it daily due to a new job I started that season (and am still at, where I wrk 12 to 9 and often am there later than that because I close the joint down most nights)...So maybe I just haven't adjusted to betting my top ranked plays just yet, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE starting Saturday...

I still cannot figure out why I bet a #7 total and bypassed all the sides I bypassed...

Won't happen again...

I am PISSED at myself and will make the necessary correction...

Both those bets were NOT bad bets as GS and LAL shot horribly...Horribly...Any kind of decent shooting % from those teams and it would have went Over easily...And I still don't know how the Indy/Minny game went Over because when I left work to go home, it was on an easy Under Pace through 2 1/2 quarters...

But not betting a few of those Sides, especially the automatic plays, was criminal on my part...

I won't let that happen again...

22 1/2 weeks left and hopefully this horrid night will long be forgotten in a few weeks/months...

Onwards and (hopefully) Upwards...  

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